Author: Crisitunity

Insider Advantage (10/27, likely voters, 10/23 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 44 (42)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 46 (44)

Other: 2 (2)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

Say what you will about this race, it’s consistent. While nobody has shown an actual lead for Jim Martin, almost every poll in the last few weeks has shown him 2 points back, or thereabouts.

With such a close race, and with Libertarian Allen Buckley consistently gobbling up a few points, it’s starting to look likelier and likelier that Chambliss will fall slightly shy of the 50% mark. With Lunsford a few points short and Musgrove starting to dwindle, it’s looking like the question of whether or not we break 60 seats may well turn on a December runoff election in Georgia.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters):

Raul Martinez (D): 44

Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 45

(MoE: ±5%)

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters, 9/23-25 in parentheses):

Joe Garcia (D): 43 (41)

Mario Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 46 (45)

(MoE: ±5%)

Two last stragglers from this weekend’s poll blitz to discuss: both the South Florida races involving the Diaz-Balart brothers are almost neck-and-neck as we near the finish line. They’re similar districts (the 21st is R+6, the 25th is R+4, both are more than 60% Hispanic, most of which is Cuban-American), obviously similar incumbents (Mario is the slightly more conservative one), and the challengers are similarly close.

Raul Martinez, the former mayor of Hialeah (the population center of the 21st), is trailing Lincoln Diaz-Balart by one point. Among the 17% who’ve voted already, Martinez leads 55-42. While it’s not surprising that the locally well-known Martinez is performing well in this one-time reliable GOP stronghold, it is very surprising that Obama is leading in this district 50-45 (and 55-42 among early voters). (Although given dramatic changes in registration numbers, maybe not that surprising.)

In the 25th, a district which is further out in the suburbs (and includes a whole lot of empty territory in the Everglades), Joe Garcia is back by 3, a slightly closer race than one month ago, and is leading among independents 42-41 (much better than the 4-point deficit among indies last month). Of the 12% who’ve voted already, Garcia leads 52-46.

Univ. of Washington (10/18-26, likely voters, 10/22-28/2007 in parentheses):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 51 (47)

Dino Rossi (Prefers GOP Party): 45 (42)

(MoE: ±4%)

Here’s another Washington governor’s race poll, this time from the University of Washington, from whom we haven’t heard anything in a year. (Obama’s up in the same sample, 55-34.) Note how consistent the trendlines are, though; more fuel for my argument that people made their minds up about this race 4 years ago. So, to recap, we have this conundrum: the national pollsters (SurveyUSA and Rasmussen) keep seeing this as a 1-2 point race, while the locals (Elway and UW) keep giving Gregoire a comfortable margin.

UPDATE: Promising tidbit: Dino Rossi must undergo deposition before Election Day, regarding the lawsuit attacking the coordinated spending between the state party and the Building Industry Association of Washington.

PPP (10/25-26, likely voters, in parentheses):

Kay Hagan (D): 48 (49)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 45 (42)

Christopher Cole (L): 4 (4)

(MoE: ±2.8%)

This week’s PPP poll of the North Carolina senate race shows Kay Hagan dropping from a 7-point lead to a 3-point lead. Considering that Hagan led by only 2 points two weeks ago, last week’s lead was probably on the optimistic side, rather than this drop being suggestive of a major trend. Still, it’s an indicator that this race can’t be taken for granted and needs to be fought to the end.

The presidential race also sees slightly tighter numbers this week, with Obama up over McCain 49-48. Governor’s race numbers will be out tomorrow.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters):

Becky Greenwald (D): 42

Tom Latham (R-inc): 47

(MoE: ±5%)

We’re still sweeping up from the avalanche of Research 2000 polls that Daily Kos released this weekend, but although this one has been out since Saturday, I’d hate to see it slip through the cracks. IA-04, one of our true longshot races languishing down in ‘Likely R’ and not getting any DCCC love beyond R2B status, looks to be a truly competitive race.

This seems to be one of those happy confluences of a motivated challenger, a coasting incumbent, a Democratic wave year, and a swingy district (D+0). In fact, the presidential results seem odd, pointing to a possible sample problem (unless there’s a lot of ticket-splitting going on) that might suggest an even better IA-04 result: McCain leads Obama 46-42 in this district. But in a D+0 district, Obama should be breaking at least 50, based on his national numbers, and probably more, since he’s overperforming in Iowa in relation to Gore and Kerry numbers.

This is shaping up to be one of the best shots that we have where the DCCC isn’t getting involved with independent expenditures (yet), and it’s a dirt cheap district. Time to strike while the iron’s hot! (Discussion is already underway in desmoinesdem‘s diary from Saturday.)

Survey USA for WCSC Live5 News (10/25-26, likely voters):

Linda Ketner (D): 45

Henry Brown (R): 50

(MoE: ±4.1%)

I suspect this weekend’s Research 2000 poll showing Democrat Linda Ketner within 9 11 points in this very conservative district piqued a lot of people’s interest, but may have gotten shrugged off as too-good-to-be-true. Well, if that didn’t rouse Henry Brown from his seemingly decade-long slumber, this will: we have not just confirmation from another public pollster but an even closer result: SurveyUSA has Ketner back just 5.

The poll’s writeup states that African-Americans comprised 20% of the sample. This seems plausible, as the African-American population of the district was about 21% according to 2006 census estimate. With highly motivated AA turnout, though, we could see an even closer race.

In the list of last week’s DCCC independent expenditures posted by James this weekend, the comments section contains, well, let’s just say “scattered boos” concerning the money the DCCC is spending on incumbent defense instead of long-shot pickups. To give that discussion a little more form and focus, I thought I’d put together a table listing the races that are on SSP’s competitive house ratings chart but aren’t getting DCCC independent expenditures… and order them according to their position on SSP’s Bang for the Buck index, which is an approximate measure of how expensive it is to advertise on broadcast media in that district (smaller numbers are cheaper).

Got a race on there that you like that isn’t getting DCCC IE support? There’s still a week left, so contact the DCCC and ask… or better yet, give directly to the candidate and hope they can sneak a last minute media buy in.

Turning to SSP’s House Ratings, every race where we’re on offense that’s rated Likely D or Lean D is getting DCCC expenditures. Of the tossups, only 2 out of 23 are not receiving DCCC expenditures, and in neither case is that a problem: LA-04, where the primary runoff hasn’t even happened yet and all the action is going to happen after Nov. 4, and FL-08, where Alan Grayson seems intent on self-funding and doing things his way.

Of the 12 races currently rated Lean R, only 1 is not receiving DCCC expenditures: NV-02. This one is kind a puzzle, as Jill Derby has been hanging around within the single digits, and Nevada, especially Washoe County, has been seeing a Democratic surge. This may be one of those cases where both candidate and DCCC agree that a DCCC-branded campaign wouldn’t really fit the district’s still-sagebrushy nature.

When you drop down to Likely R, though, only 4 of the 19 races are receiving DCCC expenditures: SC-01, VA-05, WV-02, and WY-AL. (And bear in mind that some of these four races may get upgraded to Lean R soon… not that we specifically base our upgrades on DCCC decisions; after all, we see many of the same polls that the DCCC does.) The rest of the Likely Rs should be considered the true long-shots, but remember that in 2006 we did score a couple victories out of that pool (Loebsack and Shea-Porter).

Here are the non-DCCC-funded races, in order of expense:

District	Markets	Score
LA-07	Lafayette (220) Lake Charles (94)	314
IA-04	Des Moines (414) Rochester MN (143) Cedar Rapids (negligible) Sioux City (negligible)	557
LA-04	Shreveport (382) Alexandria (93) Lake Charles (94)	569
LA-01	New Orleans (672)	672 *
NV-02	Las Vegas (651) Reno (255) Salt Lake City (811 *)	906
CA-50	San Diego (1,026)	1,026
AL-03	Birmingham (717) Montgomery (245) Columbus GA (205) Atlanta (negligible)	1,167
FL-08	Orlando (1,346)	1,346
OH-07	Columbus OH (891) Dayton (514)	1,405
FL-18	Miami (1,523)	1,523
NC-10	Charlotte (1,020) Greenville SC (815)	1,835
TX-07	Houston (1,939)	1,939
FL-13	Tampa (1,710) Ft. Myers (462)	2,172
VA-10	Washington DC (2,253)	2,253
TX-10	Houston (1,939) Austin (589)	2,528
PA-15	Philadelphia (2,926)	2,926
CA-46	Los Angeles (5,536)	5,536
NJ-05	New York (7,380)	7,380

(* = LA-01 was not researched as part of the original Bang for the Buck index. I’m not sure, but it may also extend into the Baton Rouge market.)

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters):

Larry Joe Doherty (D): 42

Mike McCaul (R): 46

(MoE: ±5%)

Texas is a long-term project for the Democrats, and districts like TX-10 are leading the way: it’s one of the fastest-growing districts in the country, and most of the growth is non-white. If this poll is any indication, though, we might be on the verge of seeing some good results right away.

Mike McCaul was already publicly sweating the early voting patterns in Harris and Travis Counties (this R+13 district stretches wormlike across hundreds of miles to link Houston and Austin suburbs). This poll can’t be helping him feel any better, as it’s slightly better than recent Doherty internals. Between McCaul never having faced a full-on challenge before, Doherty’s money and name recognition (he’s a former TV judge), changes in the district, and the size of the Dem wave (McCain leads only 48-41 in the district, down from Bush’s 62-38 edge), here’s one more upset waiting to happen.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters,9/23-25 in parentheses):

Charlie Brown (D): 48 (46)

Tom McClintock (R): 42 (41)

(MoE: ±5%)

Good grief! That blockhead Tom McClintock was supposed to be a formidable opponent for Charlie Brown in the open seat race in CA-04, to replace Abramoff-tainted retiree John Doolittle… so what happened? ‘Conservative icon’ McClintock has not only trailed by substantial margins in both public polls of this race (both from R2K), but now he’s out of cash and has stopped TV advertising. Despite the fact that this Sacramento suburbs-based district is a dark red R+11, Brown may actually succeed in kicking McClintock’s football.

Part of the problem seems to be that everyone has already heard of McClintock, and nobody seems to like him: his favorable/unfavorable rating in this sample is 44/42 (compared with Brown’s 49/29). In addition, the big blue wave seems to be sweeping in at all levels of this district: McCain leads Obama only 50-40 (compared with a 61-37 Bush edge in 2004). Perhaps most encouragingly, Brown leads early voters by a yawning gulf: 56-38.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters):

Frank Kratovil (D): 40

Andy Harris (R): 44

(MoE: ±5%)

Ordinarily, you wouldn’t expect a Democrat to be within close range in an R+10, culturally conservative district like this one. However, Frank Kratovil has a number of things going for him. One, it’s an open-ish seat, where beloved moderate incumbent Wayne Gilchrest was defeated in the GOP primary by Club for Growth nutcase Andy Harris… and Gilchrest gave his endorsement to Kratovil. And also, this is a case (like the Staten Island/Brooklyn split in NY-13) where geography plays a big role in a provincial district: Kratovil is a state’s attorney from the Eastern Shore, where the bulk of the district’s population lives, and Harris is a state senator from Baltimore County, a part of the state that’s not too popular on the Eastern Shore.

This appears to be the first public poll of the race, but Kratovil’s internal polls have shown him steadily gaining ground, culminating in a 2-point lead in an internal from several weeks ago. Harris still has built-in advantages in this conservative district (although the same sample finds McCain leading Obama only 47-43, so this district may not be R+10 much longer), but the polls suggest this may be one of our closest races next week.