Author: DaveSund

(More commentary from our man on the ground in Nebraska. – promoted by James L.)

In assessing the lay of the land in Nebraska, as it is becoming increasingly likely that Chuck Hagel is seeking reelection, and almost a certainty that Jon Bruning will be his opponent for the Republican nomination, it’s helpful to look back at the last high-profile Republican primary fight in Nebraska, the 2006 governor’s race between Tom Osborne and Dave Heineman. What’s different, here? And what might we see repeat itself?

The Republicans

I still contend that Heineman’s victory was a triumph of machine politics. Hagel came out early in vocal support of Heineman, while the only prominent elected Republican to endorse Tom Osborne for governor was – you guessed it – Jon Bruning.

But still, there’s no doubt that Heineman was the underdog in this race. Despite the advantages of incumbency, he hadn’t really done anything since assuming office in 2005.

A combination of factors contributed to Heineman’s ultimate victory, but the fact that Heineman was backed by almost every prominent Republican while Osborne’s most prominent endorsements were from Democrats (Warren Buffett actually switched to the Republican Party to vote for Osborne), may have sealed the deal.

The Independents

A quick look at the voter registration numbers in Nebraska shows 187,000 registered “nonpartisan” voters, or independents. (About 16% of registered voters in Nebraska). Nebraska law allows independents to vote in federal primary elections by requesting either the Democratic or Republican ballot. In 2006, independents found that they could not vote in the high-profile gubernatorial primary because state law requires party affiliation to be declared to vote in state primary elections.

Theoretically, this means that those voters could swing the Republican nomination back toward Hagel. However, the 2006 Senate race saw only 4,104 nonpartisans, just 3% of the total vote, vote in the primary. It may be significant in a close race, though, and if independents are aware that they can vote in the primary, the percentage may be higher. But historically, independents have not had much of an influence on the election.

The Democrats

Here’s where the key difference comes in. I alluded to this above, that Democrats in 2006 switched parties to vote in the governor’s race. Heineman was exceedingly popular – to the bewilderment of those of us who knew his politics. And Osborne, of course, is a demigod in Nebraska.

So the state party, in their infinite wisdom, decided to concede this race from the start, and because of their negligence, saw thousands of Democrats leave the party to vote in the Republican Primary, and leaving Democrats in nonpartisan races at a serious disadvantage.

A Lincoln businessman named David Hahn got into the race, but with limited resources and a state party that didn’t give him the time of day or any respect, it was a campaign that died on the runway. Now, Hahn could have done things differently. No one, in my opinion, had more limited resources or got treated as poorly by the state party as Jim Esch, but he performed better than any Democratic congressional candidate has in NE-02 for more than a decade. Hahn got less than 25% of the vote. Much of the blame for that has to rest at his feet.

Bruning may be an even worse story, though. The Democratic Party didn’t even bother to field a candidate against him for Attorney General (which led to this light-hearted Facebook campaign we started at UNO). Bruning still ended up spending $300,000 on ads, in an unopposed race. This was the first public sign that he was going to be running for Senate in 2008.

Now, I want to say that I feel the people responsible for those decisions and those attitudes within the state party are no longer employed by the Nebraska Democratic Party. I’m optimistic that the NDP isn’t going to concede a race before the primary this time around.

One of the key differences among Democrats this time, though, is that Jon Bruning would be an unacceptable choice as a U.S. Senator. So a credible candidate can – and likely will – run and get the support of Nebraska Democrats.

The Issues
They didn’t exist in the 2006 campaign. The most controversial issue that came up during the 2006 primary was the Omaha school segregation bill, which Heineman signed into law, and Osborne denounced. That didn’t exactly help Osborne among Republican primary voters, as a few prominent Democratic legislators quickly endorsed Osborne for Governor. That was late April 2006, less than a month before the primary.

This one will be all about the issues, while Chuck Hagel will seek to make it about character, knowing he can’t expect to win a Republican nomination if the focus is on the war or immigration. Bruning’s going to have to fight to keep the focus away from his past political beliefs, which Hagel’s people have been hammering hard for the last week.

The Civil War
This has been brewing for years, as Bruning’s faction has been trying to dethrone Hagel as the king of the Nebraska Republican Party. Heineman’s victory last May was a victory for Hagel. And everything in the Nebraska GOP in the last several years has some tie to this ongoing fight. (For a deeper background on Heineman-Hagel and Bruning, see this post). While the Osborne-Heineman race remained above the fray much of the time, this race has the potential to tear the Republican Party apart, and provide a real opening for the Democrats to make up some ground. If they purge Chuck Hagel, who votes with Bush 95% of the time, who’s next?

UPDATE: Looks like Hagel’s in it. Whatever his ultimate decision, it doesn’t look like retirement is on the table anymore, and running for President seems increasingly unlikely, but Hagel’s holding a high-dollar fundraiser in Omaha next month.

(Very interesting, indeed. – promoted by James L.)

Things are getting very interesting in Nebraska. Bruning released poll results today showing a 9 point lead over incumbent Senator Chuck Hagel among likely Republican voters.

From the Lincoln Journal Star:

Attorney General Jon Bruning said Monday he led Sen. Chuck Hagel by 9 points in a survey last week of likely Republican voters in a 2008 GOP Senate primary contest.

The poll of 404 Republicans was conducted by Bruning’s pollster, Dresner, Wickers and Associates of San Francisco. In a head-to-head matchup, Bruning led by 47 percent to 38 percent.

If the race was between Bruning and former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub, according to the polling, Bruning holds a 55-16% lead.

Full poll results are available here.

Race Tracker: NE-Sen

(From the diaries. – promoted by James L.)

Not to say I told you so, or anything, but it looks like Jon Bruning’s running.

The Lincoln Journal Star has more:

The plot not only thickened in the 2008 Senate race Wednesday night, it threatened to spin out of control.

Attorney General Jon Bruning is ready to enter the 2008 Republican primary whether Sen. Chuck Hagel seeks re-election or not. Bruning confirmed his intentions in a statement released Thursday morning.

Hagel’s recent vote supporting a timeline for withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and his recent criticism of President Bush provide “significant reasons” to enter the Senate race, the attorney general said.
“Senator Hagel voted with the Democratic leadership against President Bush on the most important issue facing our country,” Bruning said.

“His comments (in a recent Esquire magazine article) made it clear that he thinks impeachment of the president is an option,” the attorney general said.

“These are drastic and dramatic shifts away from the Republican Party, our president and the people of Nebraska.”

Bruning, 37, was elected as Nebraska’s Attorney General in 2002, and reelected (unopposed) in 2006. His website is still not Firefox-friendly. Bruning announced on March 15, shortly after Hagel’s non-announcement, that he was forming an exploratory committee to run for Chuck Hagel’s United States Senate seat… but only if Hagel did not run. Now, due to Hagel’s vote on the Iraq supplemental and a significant dissatisfaction among Republican voters in Nebraska – the exact factors that I predicted would land Hagel in Joe Lieberman’s position from 2006 – Bruning has decided that he’s not going to wait for Hagel.

I certainly didn’t expect this to happen so soon. But now that it has, we’ve got to fight this one. Chuck Hagel may have the establishment behind him, but he’s pissed off a lot of Republicans – and now they have someone to unite behind. He’ll be running as George Bush’s puppet – a perfect target for any Democratic candidate, yes, even in Nebraska. We need to make sure that our nominee is prepared for this. Bruning is not to be taken lightly, but he can be beaten.

Among the other rumors in that article…

Bob Kerrey is not running for Senate. There’s been a poll going around (one of my friends got it last week), that’s asked a lot of questions about Kerrey, but you all remember the ugliness right before his exit from the Senate, and let’s not forget that he’s lived in New York for the past six years. We have better candidates than Bob Kerrey.

Mike Fahey’s laying the groundwork for a reelection run in 2009, ramping up his fundraising. This shouldn’t be any cause for concern, it’s been generally assumed that he’s going to run for reelection should he not run for Senate, and he’s not going to make that decision until later this year.

Stay tuned with us here in Nebraska for any more developments.

Final Results from today’s primary:


  Ken Svoboda (R).  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  9,664  34.78
  Chris Beutler (D) .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  13,213  47.55
  Roger Yant Sr. (I).  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  3,961  14.26
  Mike Deal (I) .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  830 2.99
  WRITE-IN. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  117   .42
  Total . . . . .  .  .  .  .  27,785

Beutler and Svoboda advance to the general election on May 1. This is the most important race in Nebraska this year. The mayor’s office in Lincoln is in Democratic hands right now, but the current mayor Coleen Seng has come under a lot of fire and has generally been ineffective. Beutler’s got a long progressive history in the Nebraska legislature, and getting him elected mayor of Lincoln will be a big step for Democrats in Nebraska. Today was a huge step in that direction.

(From the diaries. – promoted by James L.)

With Chuck Hagel once again saying that impeachment could be an option, it felt like the right time to visit this topic: What if Chuck Hagel does decide to run for re-election?

Let’s say, tomorrow, a month from now, six months from now, Chuck Hagel wakes up, realizes that running for President is a fool’s errand, and decides that he’s going to just run to keep his presumably safe U.S. Senate seat.

He could be the Joe Lieberman of 2008.

Understand, of course, that this would be a “bizarro”-Joe Lieberman. Like Lieberman, he’s a staple on the Sunday morning talk shows, advocating a war strategy that is diametrically opposed to his own party. But if you lined them up side-by-side, I doubt that you’d find many issues which they’d agree on. Their similarities begin and end with how they are reviled by the rank-and-file of their own party. And that’s what I draw from here.

The anecdotal evidence is strong enough. Republicans don’t like Chuck Hagel. There’s a vocal group of Nebraska Republicans – they show up almost daily in the letters to the editor – who want to see him challenged. They may yet get their wish.

Ten days ago, Attorney General Jon Bruning announced his intention to run for Senate – should Hagel not seek reelection. But the Lincoln Journal Star’s Don Walton sees a potential for Bruning’s campaign to become a vehicle for an anti-Hagel movement, and I’m inclined to agree: 

Bruning launches his “ground game,” identifying and organizing supporters across the state.

And he begins the rather challenging task of attempting to raise funds for a campaign he may never wage.

Hagel loyalists in the Republican ranks are going to hold tight, one would guess.

Bruning loyalists will step forward behind their man.

And what will Republicans who are angry with Hagel for opposing President Bush on Iraq do?

Judging by letters to the editor, telephone messages and anecdotal evidence, there are a lot of them out there.  They are upset, and they are energized.

Do the anti-Hagels put their hopes, and money, with Bruning?  Help him build a sturdy campaign vehicle?  Implore him to run?  Coalesce into their own organization, whether Bruning’s a candidate or not?

So, just kind of picture this: Nebraska Republicans, increasingly upset at Hagel’s continued criticisms of Bush, line up behind Bruning. Not elected Republicans, of course. The Nebraska Republican establishment will be firmly behind Hagel. Bruning, surprised by the enthusiasm of his supporters, preempts Hagel’s late summer announcement by announcing that he will, indeed, run for Senate regardless of Hagel’s intentions. Hagel decides to run, setting up a showdown in May of 2008.

There is one key difference, of course: if Hagel loses the Republican nomination, he can’t run in the “Nebraska for Hagel” party. Nebraska law expressly forbids running for the same office after losing the primary.

Race Tracker: NE-Sen

(From the diaries. – promoted by James L.)

From UNO Dems
Breaking news:

LINCOLN – Attorney General Jon Bruning said today he will form an explatory (sic) committee for a possible campaign for the U.S. Senate in 2008.
Bruning, a Republican, said he will not run if Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., decided to seek re-election to a third term.
“I’m not a candidate,” Bruning said. “This is all about preparing for a ground game.”

We’ve long assumed this to be the case.  But still, it comes as a bit of a surprise that he is doing this so soon after Hagel’s non-announcement. I’ve given up trying to guess what these things mean. But I’d put it at pretty good odds we’re looking at an open seat for U.S. Senate in 2008.

And lest we forget, Hal Daub, two-time Senate loser, former mayor of Omaha, and Republican power-player, also expressed serious interest in the race today. Oh, that we could see Fahey vs. Daub again. I might enjoy that.

Race Tracker: NE-Sen

(From the diaries. – promoted by James L.)

The timetable hasn’t really changed for any of our candidates. Though the Presidential race is sort of altering our idea of when the race is going to get started, it’s worth remembering that none of our candidates in Nebraska got into the race until late summer 2005 for the 2006 cycle.

The Republicans are eager to get started. Former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub was giving interviews to every single local TV station yesterday. Jon Bruning wasn’t very subtle about his intentions should Hagel retire, either.

Mike Fahey had the most realistic outlook:

Mayor Mike Fahey, a Democrat, said it was too early to start the Senate race. He said it would be a good thing if Hagel’s decision to postpone an announcement shortened the race.

“These campaigns last too long the way they are,” said Fahey, who is being courted by national Democrats to run for the Senate in the event Hagel bows out.

Examining the facts, it’s hard to see Hagel’s non-announcement announcement yesterday as anything but a stall tactic. The reasoning behind it is beyond comprehension at this point (though I suspect, between a hundred some supporters on a conference call yesterday, someone will leak the information). But two specific things point to a Presidential run:

– Hagel’s appearance at an IAFF forum tomorrow.
– Hagel’s new website http://www.hagel.tv – which features a vaguely presidential campaign ad. Remember, we’re still 14 months away from the primary election for Senate.

Here’s my take:

As much as we’re growing impatient with Hagel for not making up his mind, it’s important to realize that the timetable for a Senate campaign is a lot different than the accelerated timetable for this Presidential race. Delaying until the fall isn’t going to alter Mike Fahey’s plans one iota. He likely wouldn’t announce his intentions to run for Senate until the fall, anyway. We all know Fahey can raise the money. Everyone’s assuming Jon Bruning’s going to run. Hal Daub all but said the words “I’m running for Senate” in several television interviews in the past week. But after the hell that was the 2006 Senate race, do we really want to subject the people of Nebraska to all of that again so soon, especially if Pete Ricketts gets back in the mix?

I’m convinced that Fahey’s going to run for Senate if it’s an open seat. If it doesn’t turn out that way, then we’ll have to work a lot harder, but Ryan at the New Nebraska Network had a great point:

What this proves to me is we can’t afford to be spectators any more. The Nebraska blogosphere has served as a vigilant watchdog of Chuck Hagel’s record. That’s all fine and dandy, but there comes a day when every public official must answer those critics and defend that record and for Senator Hagel, that day is Election Day, 2008. If we aren’t committed to making that a contest, we can’t pretend to be serious about building a “new Nebraska”.

Our candidates are going to operate on their own timetables, and the best we can do right now is encourage them to run. But the grassroots will be operating in other ways in Nebraska – from local elections to Young Democrats and many other places in between – until the time comes. We’ll continue to keep you posted on any developments, of course.

Smith Watch has the story:

This then takes me to the most interesting link on the site. The “Expenditures” list. This is what his campaign basically wrote checks on. A lot is easily found to be campaign related. Then there were the things listed that raise eyebrows.
[…]
$141,666 to Neal Smith, Adrian’s father. A look at the FEC forms say it’s for payroll processing.

The New Nebraska Network provides some more details:

It’s hard to imagine what legitimate purpose there could possibly have been for the October 30, 2006 disbursement of $12,434 to Neal Smith for this mysterious “Payroll Processing.” To a suspicious mind, that has to sound like either a deliberately vague catch-all for a lot of different payments or else a pretty clear cut case of the Smith family keeping some of the controversial Club for Growth’s money for themselves.

And AmericaBlog digs a little deeper:

Looking at the FEC Web site, and at the electronic filings, this is how the $141,000 breaks down as direct payments to Smith’s Dad:

In-Kind: Birthday Invitations: $219.35
In-Kind: Flight for two: $497.58
In-Kind: Office Space: $2525.00
Debt Repayment: $22,055.54
Payroll Processing: $116, 389.38

From the comments:

Hmm, eliminating all corporate payments, I condensed the list down to 38 individuals who received money from Smith, including his father. The Stunning result: Smith paid more than $116000 for the processing of 332 payments to 37 persons, totalling $235,000. That’s about 50 cent for processing each dollar. Hmm, strange that Smith’s dad offered his own son such a lousy deal, isn’t it?

Smith defeated Scott Kleeb in one of the most surprisingly close races in 2006. Kudos to Lisa at Smith Watch for finding this.

(Should Hagel decide to run for President, this would be a map-changing event for Senate Democrats’ 2008 battle plans. For months, I’ve assumed that Hagel was disinclined to run for President, but perhaps he sees an opening for a solid conservative challenger to the Romney/McCain/Giuliani triangle that’s been giving grief to so many conservative activists. We’re just reading tea leaves here, for now. – promoted by James L.)

Originally posted at UNO Democrats

[The rumors are flying fast now in Nebraska, and it seems like in the next couple of weeks we’re going to see some real movement on Hagel’s plans. I thought I’d repost this here to pass along the info for all of you – Dave.]

OWH:

  WASHINGTON – For a guy who hasn’t announced a presidential bid, Sen. Chuck Hagel’s schedule next week looks a lot like that of a candidate.

  He’s slated to appear with nine declared presidential hopefuls – including John McCain, Rudolph Giuliani, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama – before a national firefighters’ group.

  He’s meeting with his political action committee’s steering committee. He’s scheduled to attend a Nebraska GOP fund-raiser in Washington.

  And speculation was running high among key Nebraska Republicans that Hagel might announce something Monday.

Follow the money, they say. If Hagel is indeed gearing up for a run, he’s got to start raising money and fast. So, this item from the same World-Herald article is noteworthy:

  The day before that speech, Hagel is expected to attend a Nebraska Republican Party fund-raiser in Washington. Then, on Thursday, he’s to sit down with the steering committee of his Sandhills PAC.

  For months, Hagel’s fundraising had been all but dormant. But he held two fundraisers in the last week, including one Friday in New York City, raising $80,000 for his Senate and PAC campaign funds.

While the money from his Senate campaign account can be transferred into a Presidential account, it is the PAC activity that would hint strongly at a run for President. This article adds a bit of fuel to the months of speculation about Hagel’s political future, and its potential impact on the Nebraska political scene. Hagel’s decision – whether or not to run for re-election, whether to run for President – is going to impact the U.S. Senate race, possibly the race for our Congressional seat, all the way down to the Omaha city elections in 2009. But it seems that Hagel’s starting to mobilize. He’s running for something – the only question is what he’s running for.

UPDATE (3:53 PM CST) by DaveSund: The New York Times reports that Hagel will hold a press conference Monday to “discuss his future plans.”

UPDATE (4:42 PM CST) by DaveSund: The press conference will be on Monday at 10 a.m. at UNO’s campus, according to the AP.

Race Tracker: NE-Sen

(If Hagel decides to skip a re-election bid (for whatever reason), this could be a marquee race. Nebraska has a long history of electing Democrats to the U.S. Senate. – promoted by James L.)

From today’s Omaha World Herald:

Mayor Mike Fahey knew what was coming when he agreed recently to meet with two of the nation’s top Democrats – a pitch for him to run for the U.S. Senate.

In the past, Fahey quickly blunted any speculation that he was interested in running for higher office. That has changed, with Fahey now saying he will consider a Senate race if Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Hagel doesn’t seek re-election in 2008.

Late last month, Fahey was in Washington, D.C., for a mayors conference when he was asked to meet with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada and Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

“They talked to me about the Senate race, and they were very complimentary,” Fahey said. “They said all the right things.”

The DSCC is apparently recruiting Fahey to run for the seat, that’s a very good sign. It’s worth noting that this is only a possibility if Hagel does not run for reelection, but if Fahey does run for Senate, this becomes a tremendous pick-up opportunity.