Our hopes for a nasty Republican primary are officially dead:
Republican Jon Bruning has ended his U.S. Senate campaign, deferring to the candidate many consider a prohibitive front-runner, former governor and U.S. Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns.Nebraska’s attorney general ends his five-month campaign after raising more than $1 million for his bid to replace outgoing Republican Chuck Hagel.
Popular former Governor Mike Johanns (R) has announced that he’s resigning from his position as Agriculture Secretary and returning to Nebraska to run for the open Senate seat being vacated by Chuck Hagel.
“Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns has decided to resign from President Bush’s cabinet to return to Nebraska and enter the 2008 Senate race.
Johanns, the former two-term Republican governor, began placing phone calls to a number of friends and supporters in the state Tuesday night to inform them of his decision.
A formal announcement is expected in Nebraska next week after Johanns has submitted his resignation to the White House, according to a source close to Johanns.”
Johanns joins two other prominent GOPers in the state, former Omaha Mayor and former four-term Congressman Hal Daub, who got in the race last week, and Attorney General Jon Bruning, who has been actively campaigning since the spring. Tony Raimondo and Pat Flynn have also announced their intentions to run.
Johanns is widely seen as the strongest possible GOP nominee (some even count him as stronger than Chuck Hagel), and the best person to keep the seat in the Republican Party should former Senator and Governor Bob Kerrey decide to run. Johanns was the mayor of Lincoln, NE when he was elected Governor in 1998, then re-elected in 2002 with 69% of the vote.
In preperation for Johanns expected entry, Jon Bruning released a poll last week that showed himself only nine points down against Johanns in the GOP primary. The same poll, conducted on behalf of Jon Bruning, gave Johanns a fav/unfav of 60%-6%. Rumors in Washington though have Mike Johanns’ internal polling blowing Bruning out of the water.
Strategically speaking, Johanns position also puts prospective candidate Bob Kerrey in a bind. Kerrey has yet to announce his intentions, though he has told the board of his school that his retirement to run for Senate is a possibility. But given Mike Johanns’ popularity and strength in the red state, especially during a Presidential election year, Bob Kerrey may think twice before leaving his job in New York to run–and potentially lose–a Senate race in his home state.
Assuming Johanns wins the GOP nomination, which he is the odds-on favorite to do at this point, in a match-up against Bob Kerrey most pundits will rate the seat as Leans GOP or a toss-up. If Bob Kerrey decides not to run, the nominee would likely be either Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey or NE-03 nominee Scott Kleeb; against either of these candidates, Mike Johanns would be the strong favorite to win.
(From the diaries. Maybe he’s going to anounce once more that he’s not going to announce. – promoted by James L.)
Sen. Chuck Hagel will announce Monday he’ll not seek re-election next year.
Hagel also will tell an Omaha news conference he does not intend to be a candidate for any office in 2008, clamping a lid on speculation he might be pondering a late-inning presidential bid.
In a prelude to Monday’s announcement, he conferred Friday with Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.
Later, Hagel gathered his Washington staff together to inform them of his decision, according to sources close to the senator.
Hagel’s departure at the end of 2008 will bring an end to a meteoric 12-year Senate ride that propelled him to national prominence as the most outspoken Republican opponent of President Bush’s Iraq war policies.
From the New Nebraska Network:
The table is set. Labor Day is upon us, and a number of political deadlines are approaching. Decisions ready to be made. Political heavyweights ready to enter the arena, and some apparently ready to exit.
I’ve devoted quite a bit of virtual ink to this race, repeating myself dozens of times, going over every single sign, detail, rumor, or press account to get a better picture of what I believe is the most important race in Nebraska – for Nebraska – in 2008.
The evolution of this race – from the initial rumors of Hagel’s retirement, to Mike Fahey’s potential entry into the race, Hagel’s March “announcement,” and Bruning’s primary challenge, followed by Kerrey’s interest in a potential candidacy, has been one of the most fascinating stories of this young election cycle.
In Don Walton’s article in the Lincoln Journal Star today, this quote stands out:
If it’s ultimately Kerrey versus Johanns after 2008 primary voters have spoken and all the smoke has cleared, Nebraska may play host to next year’s premier Senate race.
So say Chris Cillizza and Shailagh Murray in The Washington Post.
“A Kerrey-Johanns matchup would be the early front-runner for the marquee race of the 2008 cycle,” they wrote last week.
We wait in anticipation for Kerrey’s decision. More after the jump…
The right-wing blog Leavenworth Street reports a few rumors of note, including this one:
The word on the Street is that Mike Johanns has hired a campaign manager.
Which would be interesting to say the least, because there’s at least two things in that sentence that have Mike Johanns directly violating the Hatch Act. Maybe the rumormongers want to back off a bit before they get their preferred candidate into trouble with the law? Oh, wait, that’s right, the Justice Department doesn’t prosecute Republicans – especially members of the Bush administration.
Speaking of Republicans having total disregard for campaign law, there’s Jon Bruning, who placed an ad in the Omaha World-Herald on Thursday. Okay, you say, so what’s the problem? It was paid for by Jon Bruning for Attorney General. The NDP blog explains the rest:
This ad was financed with soft money – money collected without adhering to the rigorous standards required by the FEC in federal elections. State-level and lower candidates use only soft money for their campaigns.
The problem is that Mr. Bruning has announced – three times, no less – that he’s running for a federal office. And I think even a lawyer as practiced as Jon Bruning would be hard-pressed to convince Nebraskans that this ad is not intended to help his numbers in his bid for Senate.
Then, of course, there’s Pat Flynn, the fringe candidate who, in his campaign announcement, decided it was a good idea to get out in front of the story:
Pat has not always led an exemplary life. He had some encounters with the law regarding alcohol and marijuana when he was in his twenties. Thankfully, the law won these battles and today these experiences are looked upon as an asset because of the life-change that occurred. With the help of God, a recovery program and the love of friends and family, Pat’s life has changed and he has been able to help effect change in other’s lives because of this experience. Pat is not proud of this part of his past but has taken full responsibility for his actions and understands well the concerns and challenges of many others who are dealing with these issues in their own lives.
Here’s guessing that Flynn’s candidacy is already “up in smoke.”
A couple of weeks ago, Jon Bruning released his Q2 fundraising numbers, coming in at over $720,000 for the quarter, a very good number for a primary challenger.
Now, incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Hagel, who two weeks ago said that his campaign would be “well beyond” the amount raised by Bruning, has clocked in at $387,000, a large portion of that coming from a May fundraiser featuring Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
The conventional wisdom crystallizing on the ground here is that Hagel is blocking for Johanns – though it’s unclear if Johanns will get in the race, and the longer he waits, the stronger Bruning looks.
As we move closer to the fall, expect some movement one way or the other.
(The circus continues in Nebraska. – promoted by James L.)
Tony Raimondo is getting serious about entering the contest for the Republican nomination:
Raimondo, a Republican and the chairman of Behlen Manufacturing Inc. in Columbus, said Wednesday that he was working to assemble a campaign, including interviewing prospective campaign managers. He said he hoped to have everything in place by August.
He has not established an exploratory committee or started raising funds.
Raimondo reiterated that it was unlikely he would run against Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb..
Hagel has said he will decide on his political future later this year.
Raimondo, who was in Washington for meetings of the National Association of Manufacturers, said he believed that Hagel would pass on seeking re-election.
“That being the case, I will be running,” Raimondo said.
This is a significant development – a sign that Hagel’s being pushed out of the race. With former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub stating that he may run regardless of whether or not Hagel’s in the race, it’s becoming clear that the Republican field would rather not have Hagel in the race. Whether or not Hagel cares, it’s reflective of Nebraska Republicans’ attitude right now.
It seems likely, given the timeframes, that we’ll get Hagel’s final decision in the next two or three months – and shortly after that, a strong Democratic challenger will emerge.
(While I’m reticent to call Bruning the “early favorite”, this has the potential to be one of the quirkiest Senate races of the cycle. – promoted by James L.)
As expected, Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning (R) is ready to officially get in the race this week.
It looks like Jon Bruning’s days of exploring a 2008 U.S. Senate bid are coming to an end.
Bruning, who has printed campaign posters touting “Bruning, United States Senate,” plans to hold a press conference Thursday at the State Capitol to talk about his political future.
All signs – including recent public comments from Bruning – indicate that the second-term attorney general will officially get into the race, setting the stage for a possible primary challenge against fellow Republican and incumbent Sen. Chuck Hagel.
Hagel, who has angered many rank-and-file party members with his Iraq war criticism, has not announced whether he will run for a third term. He plans to make his decision later this fall.
Bruning, however, has given strong indications that he will run since forming an exploratory committee earlier this spring.
He has hired several campaign workers and his campaign office in Lincoln has been busy, raising money and calling supporters.
Bruning has to be the early favorite to get the Republican nomination – perhaps even if Hagel decides to run. The longer Hagel waits, the more support he will drain. His March 12 press conference was a huge strategic blunder.
Meanwhile, the rumblings of a potential Bob Kerrey Senate bid are getting stronger. Outside of Iraq – where Kerrey managed to piss off quite a few Democrats in the last couple of weeks – Kerrey’s actually a very good Democrat for Nebraska. What’s more, in a race against Jon Bruning, I’m fairly certain that he would win quite handily.
June 23rd, Kerrey is headlining the Nebraska Democrats’ annual Morrison-Exon dinner.
[Originally posted yesterday on my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]
In early February, the Guru offered his first Retirement Watch rundown, and in mid-March there was the first Retirement Watch Update. Allow the Guru to present you with the brand new May Retirement Watch Update.
Key Statistic: Courtesy of Swing State Project, since the 1988 election cycle, mid-term election cycles have seen an average of 4.8 Senate retirements per cycle, while Presidential election cycles have seen an average of 7.7 Senate retirements per cycle. With only Colorado’s Wayne Allard officially out, statistical trends suggest that we should see a few more retirement announcements.
(See below for the full update.)
UP Virginia’s John Warner: Most notably, the five-term incumbent raised a mere $500 in the first quarter of 2007. This is a gigantic red flag. Further, Warner just today announced the departure of his Chief of Staff to the private sector. He has continually suggested that he is still unsure of his future electoral plans, but it just takes too much effort for a longtime incumbent Senator to raise next-to-nothing for a quarter. Barring an unexpected fundraising surge in Q2, a retirement announcement is quite likely.
UP New Mexico’s Pete Domenici: Domenici has not been vocal about a re-election bid, particularly considering his involvement in the Attorney Purge scandal. Two factors suggest a hightened likelihood of retirement here. First, since Domenici’s involvement in the scandal has come to light, his approval rating (previously comfortably in the mid-to-high 60’s) has been in a consistent and unabated free fall, plunging from a 43-point net approval in November 2006 to a 16-point net approval last month. Next month’s polling data will offer further insight into the momentum of the trend. Second, Domenici had a lackluster fundraising quarter for a longtime incumbent facing a potentially tough re-election bid. Even the Republican netroots are suggesting that Domenici ought to consider retirement. While there is no end in sight for Domenici’s continued negative press coverage and while his approvals continue to sink, his retirement may ultimately hinge on whether the Democrats field a strong opponent, and soon.
UP Idaho’s Larry Craig: Craig delayed his 2008 electoral plan announcement from “this summer” to “late summer or fall.” Also, regardless of how inexpensive the Idaho media market is, by any measure Craig had a very weak Q1 fundraising take, suggesting that his heart isn’t in a re-election bid. It also doesn’t help perceptions that GOP Lt. Gov. Jim Risch is chomping at the bit for Craig to retire so that he can enter the race.
EVEN Mississippi’s Thad Cochran: Fundraising has been the biggest signal that Cochran may in fact run for another term, as he nearly met his fundraising goal for the first quarter of 2007 while his likely understudy, GOP Rep. Chip Pickering, raised only a meager sum in Q1. However, two subtle hints suggest a Cochran retirement is more likely than some may suspect. First, Karl Rove’s presentation on the Senate’s “Republican Defense” states included Mississippi, likely to only be competitive if Cochran retired. Did Rove have inside info on Cochran’s decision-making process? Second, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania suggested that he would be the senior Republican Senator on the Appropriations Committee in 2010, despite Cochran’s committee seniority. Did Specter have inside info on Cochran’s decision-making process?
EVEN Nebraska’s Chuck Hagel: Since Hagel’s notorious non-announcement, he has suggested that he is ramping up his fundraising to prepare for a Senate re-election bid. But state Attorney General Jon Bruning has demonstrated early strength in a possible NE-GOP Senate primary. And Hagel’s approval-disapproval has seen better days. Meanwhile, Hagel’s own comments as well as his time spent with New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg has fueled speculation of an independent Presidential bid.
EVEN Utah’s Orrin Hatch: Yes, Utah’s Orrin Hatch. Documented rumors have suggested that Hatch has been “campaigning” in a sense for the position of U.S. Attorney General should Alberto Gonzales resign, be fired, or otherwise lose the position. An unknown, to be sure, but something to keep an eye on.
DOWN Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander: Alexander declared in early April that he “plans to run for re-election in 2008.”
DOWN Alaska’s Ted Stevens: While Stevens’ advanced age will perpetually keep him on the Retirement Watch radar, the fact that he has just recently taken lengths to distance himself from his son’s involvement in a corruption scandal rather than defend his son suggests that he’s still most interested in politically protecting himself, suggesting that he plans on making good on his threat to run for re-election.
With the dust settling, the Retirement Watch breakdown currently stands at:
Definitely retiring: Wayne Allard (CO)
On Retirement Watch: Thad Cochran (MS), Larry Craig (ID), Pete Domenici (NM), Chuck Hagel (NE), Jim Inhofe (OK), John Warner (VA)
Running (or most likely running) for re-election: Lamar Alexander (TN), Saxby Chambliss (GA), Norm Coleman (MN), Susan Collins (ME), John Cornyn (TX), Elizabeth Dole (NC), Mike Enzi (WY), Lindsey Graham (SC), Mitch McConnell (KY), Pat Roberts (KS), Jeff Sessions (AL), Gordon Smith (OR), Ted Stevens (AK), John Sununu (NH)
Loading ...(Very interesting, indeed. – promoted by James L.)
Things are getting very interesting in Nebraska. Bruning released poll results today showing a 9 point lead over incumbent Senator Chuck Hagel among likely Republican voters.
From the Lincoln Journal Star:
Attorney General Jon Bruning said Monday he led Sen. Chuck Hagel by 9 points in a survey last week of likely Republican voters in a 2008 GOP Senate primary contest.
The poll of 404 Republicans was conducted by Bruning’s pollster, Dresner, Wickers and Associates of San Francisco. In a head-to-head matchup, Bruning led by 47 percent to 38 percent.
If the race was between Bruning and former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub, according to the polling, Bruning holds a 55-16% lead.
Full poll results are available here.
Race Tracker: NE-Sen
(From the diaries. – promoted by James L.)
Not to say I told you so, or anything, but it looks like Jon Bruning’s running.
The Lincoln Journal Star has more:
The plot not only thickened in the 2008 Senate race Wednesday night, it threatened to spin out of control.
Attorney General Jon Bruning is ready to enter the 2008 Republican primary whether Sen. Chuck Hagel seeks re-election or not. Bruning confirmed his intentions in a statement released Thursday morning.
Hagel’s recent vote supporting a timeline for withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and his recent criticism of President Bush provide “significant reasons” to enter the Senate race, the attorney general said.
“Senator Hagel voted with the Democratic leadership against President Bush on the most important issue facing our country,” Bruning said.“His comments (in a recent Esquire magazine article) made it clear that he thinks impeachment of the president is an option,” the attorney general said.
“These are drastic and dramatic shifts away from the Republican Party, our president and the people of Nebraska.”
Bruning, 37, was elected as Nebraska’s Attorney General in 2002, and reelected (unopposed) in 2006. His website is still not Firefox-friendly. Bruning announced on March 15, shortly after Hagel’s non-announcement, that he was forming an exploratory committee to run for Chuck Hagel’s United States Senate seat… but only if Hagel did not run. Now, due to Hagel’s vote on the Iraq supplemental and a significant dissatisfaction among Republican voters in Nebraska – the exact factors that I predicted would land Hagel in Joe Lieberman’s position from 2006 – Bruning has decided that he’s not going to wait for Hagel.
I certainly didn’t expect this to happen so soon. But now that it has, we’ve got to fight this one. Chuck Hagel may have the establishment behind him, but he’s pissed off a lot of Republicans – and now they have someone to unite behind. He’ll be running as George Bush’s puppet – a perfect target for any Democratic candidate, yes, even in Nebraska. We need to make sure that our nominee is prepared for this. Bruning is not to be taken lightly, but he can be beaten.
Among the other rumors in that article…
Bob Kerrey is not running for Senate. There’s been a poll going around (one of my friends got it last week), that’s asked a lot of questions about Kerrey, but you all remember the ugliness right before his exit from the Senate, and let’s not forget that he’s lived in New York for the past six years. We have better candidates than Bob Kerrey.
Mike Fahey’s laying the groundwork for a reelection run in 2009, ramping up his fundraising. This shouldn’t be any cause for concern, it’s been generally assumed that he’s going to run for reelection should he not run for Senate, and he’s not going to make that decision until later this year.
Stay tuned with us here in Nebraska for any more developments.