Author: DavidNYC

Roll Call:

State Senate Minority Leader John McKinney (R) is considering challenging freshman Rep. Jim Himes (D) in 2010, according to Washington, D.C.-based Republican sources.

If he decides to run, McKinney would enter the race with a name-identification advantage. McKinney’s father, former Rep. Stewart McKinney (R), held the 4th district seat for 17 years until his death in 1987. …

In addition to McKinney, state Senate Deputy Minority Leader Rob Kane (R) has also been mentioned as a possible candidate for the seat. Kane could possibly fund some of his own bid – a major plus for the district, which includes part of the most expensive media market in the country, in New York City.

McKinney would be a strong challenger, especially if the gov races goes largely uncontested and Chris Dodd acts as an anvil at the top of our ticket. However, according to SSP’s analysis, Obama surged to a punishing 60-40 margin in this district (Kerry won just 52-46), even though Connecticut was not targeted at the presidential level, making CT-04 tough sledding for any Republican.

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/20-22, “Arkansas voters,” no trendlines):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 48

Gilbert Baker (R): 37

Undecided: 16

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 46

Tim Griffin (R): 37

Undecided: 16

(MoE: 4%)

State Senator Baker and former US Attorney Griffin are both unknown to over half the state, so these numbers aren’t too impressive for Lincoln. What’s more, her approvals are just 45-40. (Strangely, PPP did not ask for presidential approval ratings.) Still, she has $7 million on hand and will get all the help she needs. And neither of these potential opponents are at anything more than the “rumored” stage yet.

More discussion in Conspiracy’s diary.

(Hat-tip: Political Wire)

UPDATE: My mistake – PPP released Obama ratings yesterday. The President’s job approval is 47-45. Also, Dem Gov. Mike Beebe (up for re-election in 2010) is at 68-20, “the best ratings of any politician PPP has polled on in the entire country over the last year.”

Quinnipiac (3/19-23, “Republican voters,” no trendlines):

Pat Toomey (R): 41

Arlen Specter (R-inc): 27

Undecided: 28

(MoE: ±4.8%)

Pretty amazing. Plenty of undecideds, but Toomey never had a poll this good in 2004 – nor did Specter have one this bad. The closest Quinnipiac had it was 48-42 Specter shortly before the primary. Even more surprising is that this poll appears to be of registered voters, not likely voters, and polling from last time showed Specter understandably doing better with the former group. If he’s already faring this poorly among RVs….

In any event, it looks like Specter has moved into reverse Lieberman territory. His favorability rating is just 29-47 among members of his own party, while Dems really like him – 60-16. With numbers like these, it’s no surprise that we’ve heard chatter about a party switch, and that Specter’s been busy trying to open up PA’s GOP primary to independents.

As long as this poll isn’t some crazy outlier, this ought to be a hell of a race. Andgarden has more.

UPDATE: There’s a second poll out on this primary. Franklin & Marshall (PDF) (3/17-22, registered Republicans, no trendlines):

Arlen Specter (R-inc): 33

Pat Toomey (R): 18

Peg Luksik (R): 2

Other: 5

Undecided: 42

(MoE: ±6.8%)

Better nums for Specter, of course, but a very tiny sample (n=211), and as I said above, he never had a survey this bad five years ago. I should also add that Specter’s shameful flip-flop on EFCA has obviously infuriated his erstwhile labor allies – but it hasn’t tamped down criticism from the right, either. He’s in a very tough place right now.

How many times have you heard someone say, “Well, if the two (or three, or four) big established politicians beat each other up in the primary, Lesser Known Candidate Z could sneak through”? Certainly I’ve seen this kind of speculation far more often than it actually happens. Alice Kryzan’s win over Jon Powers and Crazy Jack Davis in NY-26 was quite the shocker – there must be a dozen (if not 50) Tom Geoghegans for every Kryzan.

But it’s obviously happened in the past, and it’ll occasionally happen in the future. So I’m asking the SSP brain trust to dig deep into the memory banks and tell us about any other “sneak through” primary winners you’re aware of. I’m sure there are some good stories out there, so let’s hear `em.

Insider Advantage (3/17, registered voters, no trendlines):

Roy Barnes (D): 35

Casey Cagle (R): 39

Undecided: 26

Roy Barnes (D): 38

John Oxendine (R): 33

Undecided: 29

Roy Barnes (D): 34

Karen Handel (R): 29

Undecided: 37

(MoE: 4%)

Barnes, 61, served as Georgia’s governor for one term (1999-2003), until he was unexpectedly booted out by Sonny Perdue – who is himself term-limited, making this an open seat. Cagle is the current Lt. Gov., Oxendine is the state Insurance Commissioner, and Handel is the Secretary of State.

The original poll results are unfortunately behind a paywall now, so I don’t know what Barnes’s name rec looks like, over six years after he left office. I’d suspect it’s still fairly high, but his favorables are a separate question. Meanwhile, IA does say that all three GOP contenders are fairly unknown, so we might be comparing Generic R to Well-Known D.

These uncertainties, plus the high undecideds, might mean that Barnes isn’t actually as competitive as these early numbers show. I recall one poll just over four years ago which showed Lucy Baxley leading AL Gov. Bob Riley 39-35 with 26% undecided. Twenty months later, those numbers were the dimmest of memories.

Roll Call:

Southaven Mayor Greg Davis (R), who lost to Childers in both the special election and in the November general election rematch, said last week that he has no interest in challenging Childers again in 2010. And now Magnolia State Republican insiders have turned their attention to GOP state Sens. Alan Nunnelee and Merle Flowers.

Nunnelee, who chairs the state Senate Appropriations Committee, acknowledged his interest in the 1st district race on Monday but said he probably won’t make a decision on a Congressional bid until after the state budgeting process is complete. …

Flowers… said it is too early to talk about whether he’d challenge the Congressman in 2010. Nunnelee said that considering the close relationship that he and Flowers have, “I can’t see any scenario where Merle and I would run against each other” in a GOP primary.

A terribly divisive GOP primary for the MS-01 special last year left Nathan Lane Greg Davis badly wounded. Childers, however, won all three of his contests against Davis with increasing margins each time (3%, 8%, and 10%) and seems to be a capable politician and a good fit for his district. Even if the GOP recruits a strong candidate, Childers will have the edge – and considerable support from the DCCC.

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Siena College (PDF) (3/16-18, registered voters, Feb. 2009 in parens):

David Paterson (D-inc): 17 (27)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 67 (53)

Undecided: 17 (20)

(MoE: ±_._%)

David Paterson (D-inc): 33 (36)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 56 (51)

Undecided: 11 (13)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 51 (51)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 41 (38)

Undecided: 9 (11)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Brutal. Just brutal. Paterson’s favorables are now at 29-58 – in November, they were 64-19! His job approval is even worse, 17-78, and his re-elects are 14-67. Meanwhile, Cuomo is busy clocking in some of his highest ratings ever – almost the mirror-image of the Governor. He’s even winning African American voters by 55-22. I never imagined I’d say this considering how high he was riding just half a year ago, but it may seriously be time for Paterson to consider not running again.

Siena also tested some Senate nums:

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 41

George Pataki (R): 41

Undecided: 18

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 47 (40)

Peter King (R): 23 (27)

Undecided: 30 (33)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

These aren’t as interesting as they may look. Fifty-four percent of the state has no opinion of Gillibrand, while Pataki has 90% name rec. Plus, I’d be quite surprised if he got in. Gillibrand’s considerable resources will undoubtedly allow her to enhance her statewide profile over the next year.

The full cross-tabs are here (PDF). BigDust also has a post on this poll.

Now that we have complete presidential results by CD for the entire nation, we can take a look at how members of Congress fared compared to the top of the ticket in each district. The vast majority of Congressmen and women typically perform better than their party’s presidential candidates. The reasons for this are plain: Most members don’t face serious challenges, and individual Congresscritters can tailor their politics to suit their CDs far better than any presidential office-seeker, who (in theory, at least) has to appeal nation-wide.

Some Congressmembers, however, invariably run behind the ticket. First up are the laggard Republicans:

Most of the folks on this list are freshmen who are almost all certain to do much better in 2010. A handful of others are in extremely red districts to begin with, making any difference between their performance and McCain’s mostly a matter of minor noise.

Some, however, stand out for reasons all their own, and their underperformance signals a weakness which could potentially be exploited (again). They include the ethically plagued Don Young, the hapless Patrick McHenry, the well-hated Jean Schmidt, the befuddled Henry Brown, the batshit Virginia Foxx, the caught-napping Mike Rogers, and the loose-lipped Michele Bachmann. While all sit in red districts of varying difficulty, each could be vulnerable (particularly Brown and Rogers, I feel).

Now for the Democratic list:

Once again, the vast majority here are freshmen. There are also quite a few more folks in absurdly blue districts (much bluer than the most Republican districts are red). A few stand out as potentially more than just noise, though. Nancy Pelosi puts in a token appearance here – obviously you’re going to take a few dings if you’re the party leader, but not quite enough for us to be welcoming Congresswoman Sheehan as our new overlord.

Anyhow, I wouldn’t be surprised if Artur Davis’s long-manifest desire to run for higher office hurt him with the folks at home. (UPDATE: It was Danny Davis in IL-07, not Artur Davis in AL-07.) Meanwhile, Lynn Woolsey’s outspoken, er, leadership of the Progressive Caucus might be chafing at her favorability ratings. Charlie Rangel, of course, endured tons of bad press thanks to his tax problems. And David Scott had to face down all kinds of bullshit from Deborah “The Defrauder” Honeycutt. None of these seats, of course, could ever turn red (is Anh Cao laughing at me as I say this?) – it’s just that their current inhabitants had (and in some cases still have) varying “issues” in front of them.

As for more serious situations, it’s no surprise to see Paul Kanjorski on this list. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick also has a featured spot, thanks undoubtedly to the serious primary challenge she got last year and her bellicose defense of her disgraced son Kwame (the ex-mayor of Detroit). I wouldn’t be surprised if she got primaried again. Otherwise, I don’t see too many vulnerable Dem veterans on this list – but Kanjorski and Kilpatrick seriously need to consider retirement.

UPDATE: Himes’s margin of victory was actually four points, not one – I had failed to include the votes he got on the Working Families Party line.