FL-Sen: Jeb Bush Begging off a Run?

Brothers and sisters, let us pray:

Republican excitement over the prospect of Jeb Bush running for U.S. Senate has given way to increasing speculation that the former governor will stay out of the race.

Bush declined to comment for this article but was expected to make an announcement perhaps as early as this week. Even with his father on national TV Sunday touting Bush as a terrific potential future senator or president, friends say family considerations could outweigh the pull of public service.

Among other things, the article suggests that Bush might be reluctant to run because it would hurt his consulting business (which I can only assume has been quite lucrative). Please, Jeb, think of your bank account!

NY-Sen-B: Cornyn Meets with King

Rumblings:

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn met today with Rep. Peter King (R-N.Y.), and intends on supporting him as the congressman strongly considers a run for the Senate in New York.

“Senator Cornyn believes Peter King would be a very formidable candidate. He believes the seat could be in play, and is prepared to commit the resources to win the seat,” said a senior Republican aide familiar with the meeting.

A source close to King confirmed  that the congressman is strongly considering running for the Senate. He is expected to make a final decision whether to run “soon after” Gov. David Paterson appoints a successor for Hillary Clinton’s Senate seat.

As uphill a fight as this might be, I could see King doing this for the same reason guys like Zach Wamp, Adam Putnam, and Pete Hoekstra are all making similar moves: being a House Republican sucks right now, and for the foreseeable future. King also has an additional fire that’s slowly broiling his ass – he’s almost sure to face some unfriendly redistricting in two years’ time.

While I think King would get walloped by almost any Dem, it’s possible a not-ready-for-primetime Caroline Kennedy could be potentially vulnerable. And even she would still be the odds-on favorite. What’s more, this race will cost a fortune, and I really doubt John Cornyn can spare the resources when there are many better targets out there.

Still, it would be fun to watch, and would create a great open-seat race for King’s NY-03 House seat.

IL-Sen: Reid Softens Stance On Burris

This looks like a pretty serious backtrack for Handsome Harry:

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid on Sunday maintained that the appointment of Illinois Democrat Roland Burris to the Senate seat left vacant by the election of President-elect Barack Obama is under a cloud of suspicion, but the Nevada Democrat hinted the door may be open for discussion.

“I’m a trial lawyer. There’s always room to negotiate,” Reid said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

“I’m a trial lawyer” – oy vey. Anyway… this is quite an about-face from last Tuesday, when Senate Dems said no way, no how to Roland Burris:

Under these circumstances, anyone appointed by Gov. Blagojevich cannot be an effective representative of the people of Illinois and, as we have said, will not be seated by the Democratic Caucus.

I think this whole episode is going to wind up being pretty embarrassing for Harry Reid, and a lot of the wounds are gonna be self-inflicted.

TN-Gov: Frist Won’t Run

Kitty Kevorkian is out:

Former U.S Senator Bill Frist announced late Sunday evening that he would not be a candidate for governor of Tennessee in 2010. Frist issued a statement to the Associated Press stating that “After significant reflection and conversations with loved ones, I have decided to remain a private citizen for the foreseeable future.”

The move by Frist dramatically opens up the Republican field, as a number of GOP gubernatorial aspirants had said that they would not make the race had Frist run.

Among those who have said that they would likely run now with Frist out is Congressman Zach Wamp of Chattanooga, District Attorney Bill Gibbons of Memphis, and Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam.

Dem Gov. Phil Bredesen is term-limited, so this will be an open seat in 2010. I would have enjoyed seeing the hapless Frist flail about in a gubernatorial run, but at least now we will probably see a competitive GOP primary – the link cited above says Haslan and Gibbons are likely to get in with Frist gone.

Wamp, meanwhile, has always struck me as an up-and-comer in the House GOP caucus (he’s on Appropriations & he also tried to run for Majority Whip not that long ago), so I’d be a bit surprised if he jumped ship. Then again, things look awfully bleak for Republicans on the Hill, and if guys like Adam Putnam are looking to bail, then maybe Wamp is, too. Don’t get too excited about his TN-03 seat, though – it’s R+9, and I’m sure Obama did very poorly there.

NM-Gov: Richardson Withdraws as Commerce Sec’y Nominee

NYT:

Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico, one of the country’s most prominent Hispanic politicians and President-elect Barack Obama’s choice to be commerce secretary, on Sunday dropped out of consideration for that post. He attributed his decision to the ongoing investigation of a company that has done business with New Mexico.

Mr. Richardson said that he would continue as governor, and he added, “Let me say unequivocally that I and my administration have acted properly in all matters and that this investigation will bear out that fact.”

If Richardson does stay on as governor (something I’m not convinced of, despite his statement), then  of course Lt. Gov. (and likely successor) Diane Denish won’t get bumped up to the statehouse right away. This doesn’t change the calculus a whole lot, though, as Richardson is term-limited and we’re likely to see a serious race for this seat no matter what.

VA-Gov: Tim Kaine to Head DNC

WaPo:

Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine will become chairman of the Democratic National Committee later this month, serving as the top political messenger for Barack Obama’s administration even while he finishes his final year in the governor’s mansion, several sources said.

Kaine, who emerged as one of Obama’s vice presidential finalists this summer, will operate from Richmond in a part-time capacity until January 2010, when he will become the full-time DNC chairman. Kaine is constitutionally barred from running for reelection.

Brownsox points out that the current governor of Virginia is going to become chairman of the DNC, while a former DNC chair is trying to become governor of Virginia (Terry McAuliffe, of course).

MN-Sen: Recount Complete – Franken up 225

Strib:

Norm Coleman’s term as a U.S. senator ended at noon Washington time on Saturday, and by evening his hopes of winning a second term had been dealt an expected but serious setback as state officials counted previously rejected absentee ballots in St. Paul.

DFLer Al Franken held an unofficial lead of 225 votes over Coleman as this edition of the Star Tribune went to press, according to a newspaper tally of the officials’ count of the absentee ballots. Franken had led unofficially by 49 votes going into the day and gained a net 176 votes from the new ballots.

With the recount complete, focus immediately shifted to the Minnesota Supreme Court, which continued to consider a request from the Coleman campaign to alter the process and add more absentee ballots to be reconsidered. But by early evening there was no word from the state’s highest court as to when it would rule or hear arguments.

Coleman almost certainly can’t win no matter how many legal challenges he files. At this point, here’s the real question: Will Harry Reid fight as hard to seat Al Franken as he’s fighting not to seat Roland Burris?

NY-Sen-B: Paterson Says No to Caretaker

I’ve been in favor of the idea, but the Daily News says it’s not gonna happen:

Gov. David Paterson today flat-out rejected the idea of appointing a placeholder to Hillary Clinton’s US Senate seat, saying he’s worried it would cost New York clout in the upper house. …

“I’m actually opposed to that,” he told reporters in Albany this morning. “It would cause New York to lose senioirity, and in the United States Senate the most effective senators are the ones that have seniority. So I’m hoping that the person I select wins a primary.”

Because Clinton won’t resign until she is confirmed as SoS, Paterson isn’t talking about seniority in the 111th Congress – his appointee will be the most junior member of the Senate (possibly depending on what happens in Illinois and maybe Minnesota).

Rather, seniority will only matter if the appointed senator wins a primary and general in 2010. Around ten or so new senators take office every two years on average, so our Mystery Senator would have the tremendous privilege of being, oh, about 88th or 89th in the pecking order.

I don’t purport to understand every nuance of the Senate’s internal dealings – it’s a very weird body. So maybe ten spots up the totem poll really would make a difference. But this seems like a pretty feeble justifcation for me, because I think there’s a simple solution that balances the seniority issue with, you know, the democracy issue: change the law to call for a special election. Of course, there aren’t too many sitting governors who would give up their own power like that, so I’m sure we won’t see Paterson exercise that option either.