Everyone here probably saw the disturbing Survey USA poll from a few weeks back, which showed Dem Nikki Tsongas leading Republican Jim Ogonowski, heretofore a nobody, by just 51-41. No one has publicly polled the race since, but David Wasserman at the Cook Political Report (sub. req.) has lots more to say, little of it good:
Yet at this point in the race, there is little question that a Democratic nominee with a familiar political last name is significantly underperforming against a Republican political newcomer in the run-up to the October 16th general election. The evidence is not difficult to come by: former President Bill Clinton will be headlining a rally in the district on Sunday.…
[P]ollsters on either side of the partisan divide were sent into the field to double-check the [SUSA] numbers, as is standard procedure. As it turns out, this private polling only reinforced a Tsongas lead in this neighborhood and has led several Democratic insiders to concede that she has a real race on her hands.
The wankers at The Corner claim a Dem survey shows a mere 5-point lead, but no one has produced so much as a one-page polling memo to back this claim up. Still, I don’t like it. Anyhow, back to Wasserman:
So why in the world could this race be close?It is possible to view the race in any number of lights, but it is hard to deny that voters in the district are angry at Washington for a variety of reasons. Polling universally pegs the district’s job approval rating of Congress in the teens, and there is little doubt the district’s job approval of President Bush languishes at similar depths. For the district’s small band of Republicans, whose base probably comprises around a third of the vote in any given election, Ogonowski is an attractive prospect considering the party has been shut out of federal office in the Bay State for so long. But those familiar with the district say he will also receive substantial support from independents and even some Democrats who are clearly very frustrated with congressional Democrats’ inability to end the Iraq War and are eager to send Congress any message they can if they perceive they are in the national spotlight.
Then, there are race-specific factors at work. Surely, there are a handful of Democrats who still harbor bitter feelings from the closely contested primary and may not get behind her in the general. Local operatives, however, point to a larger image problem for Tsongas, stemming from her desire to transition from a community college position with a somewhat opaque title to Congress. For years, Massachusetts voters have endured numerous scandals and controversies involving highly politically-involved university officials: the names Bulger and Silber come to mind. As Tsongas seeks to follow in the footsteps of an outgoing congressman who left to become chancellor of the district’s largest university, she must be wary of the perception that there is a revolving door between higher education and public office and that public institutions conceal featherbedding operations for politicians in the state.
Ugh. Wasserman notes that Romney got 53% here, so a Republican win is not out of the question. Perhaps most troubling is that he moved this race not one but two notches – from Solid Dem to Lean Dem in one fell swoop. Such big moves are extremely rare at Cook or any of the professional prognostication outfits.
Wasserman also mentions the Hackett special in 2005, and my feeling is that we might be looking at the mirror-image of that race: We’ll probably pull out a win in the end, but narrowly enough that the GOP will feel bouyed. The only silver lining here is that I think the closeness of this contest likely isn’t a sign of a widespread rot lurking just below the surface, as OH-02 was for the Republicans.
But whatever the outcome – especially if the unthinkable happens – this had better shake Hill Democrats out of their unacceptable complacency. I don’t doubt for a minute that Wasserman is correct when he describes Tsongas’s weak showing as a proxy for the disgust many Democratic voters currently harbor for the Democratic Congress. It’s long past time for our caucus to stand up to the GOP, and the situation in MA-05 is just further proof of that.