Tag: House Races 2008

The Senate 2008 Guru shuffles on down to the People’s House and riffs off of Ben to provide this list of Republicans sitting in districts of R+5 or better who don’t have any announced or rumored challengers:

                             

District	PVI	Incumbent
NY-23	R+0.2	John McHugh
MN-03	R+0.5	Jim Ramstad
OH-12	R+0.7	Patrick Tiberi
MI-11	R+1.2	Thaddeus McCotter
MI-08	R+1.9	Mike Rogers
MI-06	R+2.3	Fred Upton
FL-07	R+3	John Mica
MI-04	R+3	Dave Camp
OH-03	R+3	Michael Turner
FL-18	R+4	Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
FL-25	R+4	Mario Diaz-Balart
MI-10	R+4	Candice Miller
FL-05	R+5	Ginny Browne-Waite
VA-05	R+5	Virgil Goode

Obviously, the state of play in House races is always a moving target, as the Ramstad situation shows. And challengers often don’t announce until the year of the actual election. What’s more, this list doesn’t take into account the quality of the opposition in all the races which do have challengers (or potential challengers).

That said, there are still some interesting opportunities on the list. I hope someone steps forward to take on John McHugh, and not just because he sits in the most Dem-leaning district of this bunch, but also because NY is by far the bluest state here. I think next year, we could possibly return to Gore – or even Clinton – levels statewide in New York. Michigan also looks enticing, with five opportunities under R+5.

So, have you heard any rumors at all about any of these seats? Any speculation or recruitment ideas? Let’s hear it.

20 key House recruiting priorities.

On the whole Democrats are doing exceptionally well when it comes to House Challenger recruitment. By my count there are already 45 districts in which well-established challengers could potentially win.   Additionally Democrats have another five districts in which challengers are pretty close to declaring and if such challengers declared would also make these very competitive. This amounts to already 50 potential wins.  While this is very good news, I believe there are at  twenty more districts in which a Democrat could win if a proper challenger would emerge. With any luck we should be looking at 70 Republicans or more than 1/3 of the Republican House Caucus on the Run.  The twenty districts in need of a challenger are on the flip with brief explanations of each. It is also extremely important to remember challenger does not have to mean extremely well funded, well connected party insider or self-funder.  In 2006 we won with many first time , regular people who worked very hard. We need just as many Tim Walz’s, as Nick Lampson's

1.    PA 6
        This is the most surprising of  the districts to currently be without a challenger  in Jim Gerlach entire career in Congress he has never gotten above 52% of the vote. His district is only 1 of 8 remaining districts that voted for Kerry and in sending a Republican to Congress. I have heard in and out many names floated but as of yet have not heard of a declared challenger. I imagine that should not last long but still until it is rectified it is clearly the biggest problem district out there.

2.    IL 6
This district was  waiting on Tammy Duckworth decision of whether to run against Peter Roskam or not, now that the decision has been made. Democrats are in need of a new candidate.  Peter Roskam only got 51% in a district that only gave George Bush  53%. This could well be Obama territory and not having a House Challenger would be shame.
    
3.    DE AL
This district has been held extremely well held by Republican Michael Castle for a relatively long time and will be an extremely difficult get and yet it is the most Democratic district of any held by  a Republican. So far no credible challenger has emerged but if one does Mike Castle can be beat.

4.    IL 18
This newly minted open seat should be of considerable value, while it is a generally tough district giving Bush 58 percent of the vote.  Its Republican Members of Congress have been more moderate than most. We need  a strong candidate in  this race as we should in all under 60 Bush open seats.

5. MN 3
 Jim Ramstad is defiantly a slippery customer who has a tendency to vote correctly on a number of occasions, and yet his district in Minnesota, like  the one now held by Congressman Tim Walz, barely gave the Republican any margin with which to work. Another earnest Minnesotan can and should make this race a real fight.  At the very least a challenge will make Jim Ramstad do the right thing more often.

6.    MI 11
This district seems to be one of utmost importance, it was one of the five
seriously under targeted in 2006.  The criteria are those races in which an incumbent is held to less than 55% while spending less than $ 500,000. The other four all seem to have challengers in place.  This district simply can not be left to go unchallenged.  It also gave George Bush only 53% of the vote. Simply put. We can beat Thaddeus McCotter.
7.    FL 10
 Bill Young  is the type of incumbent who needs pushing into retirement, his district only voted for the President 2004 by an exceptionally small margin and yet he has been re-elected by very large margins over and over. He is however quite old and a strong and declared challenger could make him think twice about running for re-election. Plus given his age, he could lose even if he does run for re-election
8.    NJ 3
    Jim Saxton sometimes talks like a moderate but is many ways a conservative, he was held to under 60% against a very under-funded  challenger in 2006 and represents another just Bush  win with roughly 51%, in 04 but which Gore won by near double-digits.  I heard rumors of state-senator John Adler getting into the race but until I hear more than rumors, we need a candidate.
9.    NY 3
There are only  six New York State Republican House members left and already four have challengers, and three have very serious challengers. There are still sadly two who lack the kind of challenger they need. Peter King’s race is one of them. A very similar district to NJ 3 in that it went slightly for Bush in 04, but near double digits for Gore in 2000. All the other Long-Island district have fallen. A well place challenger should make this one fall as well.
10.    OH 12
The pattern should begin to be emerging, this is a district in which George Bush won by the slightest of margins with an incumbent who receive less than 60% in 2006. It was one of the better funded challenges though our candidate faced other obstancles. Given the still somewhat toxic environment for Republicans in Ohio, along with a Presidential year, Pat Tieberi is clearly vulnerable to the right kind of challenger.
11.    NY 13
    One of only Six Republican from New York, and one of only two without a challenger, this district showed a bigger Bush swing than NY 3, but also went for Gore by a similar amount. Vito Fossella represents Staten Island and Brooklyn. Steve Harrison on an extremely small budget held Vito to only 57% and therefore the right challenger should be able to win. New York could at the end of 2008 have no Republican left in the delegation and hopefully  with CT we can have a Republican free North East from New York to Maine.
12.    VA 2
    It is not the nature of the district but Thelma Drake’s mediocre performance that have landed her on the hot heat, after winning the seat initially in 2004 with only 55% of 3  points behind Bush’s take her 2006 performance of only 51% makes her in serious jeporardy  were a serious challenger to emerge. We need one, if only to help our 2008 VA Senate candidate.
13.    NJ 2
This is another barely won for Bush 2004, Gore much bigger Winner 2000, moderately Republican held districts, the reason it falls lower on the scale than NJ 2 is the Republican Frank LoBiondo holds up better than does Jim Saxton, and is also more politically strewed. Still a strong challenge here and it is a winnable race.
14.    Il 11
It is actually amazing to be that Jerry Weller is not considered more vulnerable given the fun he has with ethics and yet, his 55% win over very capable John Pavich indicated taking him out in a district that gave George Bush 53% will be difficult, but Illinois could be Obama country and the right challenger could have Weller’s number.
15.  OH 3
Mike Turner sits on the type of district that swung well in  2006. It gave George Bush 54% of the vote in Dayton Ohio. It is not an easy sell and yet Mike Turner is not a long time member having only been recently elected in 2002.  He also was held to under 60% against a very late declaring challenger after a debacle with our first candidate. It is the type of district that could swing and therefore should be challeneged.
16.   IL 13
Judy Biggert sits on a moderately Republican districts in generally suburban Illinois The district gave George Bush about 53% of the vote, she has not often been challenged though she did  dip below 60 in the most recent election despite nominally funded opposition.  Seats in Illinois that fit this profile must have viable challengers as a Democratic winning 60% of the vote there in the Presidential is a real possibility[if you doubt, the Dem and Green got 60% against the last Republican to hold statewide office, so 60% is clearly possible]
17.  MI 8
Mike Rogers faced down with 55% a pretty good challenger in 2006 election, and yet the 54% that Bush got in the District in 2004 means it could flip.  It  was these Suburban leaner districts that made for the last 10 of the Democrats House wins, this district and PA 4 seems to have a possible similarities, the point is that there is simply no reason to give up here.
18.  MI 6
Fred Upton usually wins big  but the district is relatively moderate, giving George Bush 53%, it isn’t a high priority but a challenger could win here.  If I had to guess I would say Both Stabenow and Granholm one this district. We need to compete here.
19. FL 18
One of the very few district in which the George Bush percentage dropped versus 2000, FL 18 is the most Democratic of the three Miami area Cuban district,  This district only gave George Bush 54% of the vote and while its Incumbent is well entrenched the right kind of challenger could move this district on the path to becoming Democratic.
20. MI 4
This district is mostly listed for the round number as Bush’s 55 here, along with 61% by Dave Camp in 2006, does not give me much grounds for getting too excited and yet, 55% is not so larger as to give up hope. Dave Camp could be defeated if  a very high quality challenger were to emerge.

(Ambitious. I like it. – promoted by James L.)

So this is the most ambitious blogging project I have taken on and am quite excited about it. I will be bringing you, the readers of Swing State, Dailykos, MYDD and the LastingMajority, An update on the 50 most likely Republican Seats to flip to Democratic.  Updating from today, once a month,  all the Way to November 08.

First let me say why I think this is so important.  The blogs role must  play the role of offense as the DCCC might fade back into incumbent defense.  We are very good on offense. This post is attempt to say which seats need to be targeted from  the beginning of the Cycle and adjusting  as circumstance change.

In addition to just the 50 seat targeting, I provide lists of all Republican Incumbents who got less than 60% and 55%, as well as the districts which sent a Republican to Congress that gave George Bush 55% or less of the vote in 2004. This and a few open seats are from where got the list.  For the top 25 targeted races, I gave the reason for weakness.  In the bottom 25,  I just include information not context. I hope this will aid the Netroots Community in make even better targeting decisions.

The Top 50 races

1. MI 7
Republican Tim Walberg
06 Winning Percentage  51%
04 Bush Percentage  54%
Reason for Weakness
Tim Walberg is the most vulnerable Republican member of Congress because running against an opponent in a general election who spent only $ 55,000,.  He got just 51% in a 54% Bush District. His defeat of a Congressman Schwarz who was widely liked  will cause him problems.  If the Democrats can find a centrist in the Schwarz model we should be able to defeat this Freshman.

2. PA 15
Republican Charlie Dent
06 Winning Percentage  53%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
Charlie Dent has only been re-elected once in now one of only eight Republicans to hold a seat that John Kerry won .  He also was one of only two incumbents in Kerry won districts not to have a well-financed challenger. The fact that he was only able to get 53% under these circumstance means that he is a very good target for defeat. 

3. NV 3 
Republican Jon Porter
06 Winning Percentage 48%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
As a Member of Congress you never want to be getting less than 50% and that is exactly the position that Jon Porter find himself as he confronts life in the minority.  The Democrat was able to get 47%  with 5% going else where. If the Democrats can recruit a slightly more experience candidate and Ms. Hafen now counts. This race will be extremely close.

4. FL 8
Republican Ric Keller
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage  55%
Reasons for Weakness
You never want to run below the President of Your own Party in your district and this is exactly what happened to Ric Keller. This is particularly bad in a state where Republican loses were less than in other states. His 53% against a good but not great opponent in a peripherally targeted race was trouble enough, but he is now breaking a term limits and already has a republican primary challenger.

5. WA 8
Republican Dave Reichert 
06 Winning Percentage  ?
04 Bush Percentage  48%
Reasons for Weakness
A two term Congressman from one of eight Kerry won Republican held seats is by definition vulnerable, also a minority member. That he was able to get only 51% in both cycles adds to that vulnerability. This race will be very tight again. The Presidential should be helpful.

6. CO 4
Republican Marilyn Musgrave
06 Winning Percentage 46%
04 Bush Percentage 58%
Reasons for Weakness
46% is a terrible number for an Incumbent.  It means serious problems particularly when your last election performance before was already 7% the President behind that of the President of your own party.

7. AZ 1
Republican Rick Renzi
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Hints of corruption, a weak re-election performance including running behind the President of your own party and being a relatively junior member now in the minority these are the challenges now faced by Rick Renzi.  This is a member who is beatable.

8. CA 4
Republican John Doolittle
06 Winning Percentage 49%
04 Bush Percentage 61%
Reasons for Weakness
A congressperson never wants to get  less than 50%, when that is combined with such a massive running behind of party ID It shows a member with a serious problem. The large amount spent on the legal defense fund might be why.  If Charlie Brown gives it another shot this could be a race.  We sure should make sure it is.

9. NJ 7
Republican Mike Ferguson
06 Winning Percentage  49%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
Another Republican under 50% spells danger  for him. He also  is still a relative junior member just reaching the minority  for the first time.  Linda Stender should be encouraged to make the challenge again and regardless this can be a very close race.  Ferguson’s position on social issues are also out of step for the district.

10.NC 8
Republican Robin Hayes
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage  54%
Reasons for Weakness
Winning by less than 500 vote against the same opponent who was generally under-funded last time is all one needs to make the top ten list of vulnerable members, I think Larry Kissell should be the first person on the New Blue Majority List.

11. MI 9
Republican Joe Knollenberg
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
Reasons for Weakness
This was probably the worst under-target in the nation besides PA 15 with less reasons  for it. The good news however is that Joe Knollenberg now a minority member spent a huge amount of money his campaign money just to hold on.  He is also relatively old so a retirement would not be surprising. Either way this seat should be a top priority.  Nancy Skinner was a very good candidate that not only the DCCC but us in the Netroots missed as well. If  she runs again I think supporting  her would be justified.

12.  IL 14
Republican Dennis Hastert
06 Winning Percentage 60%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
How the mighty have fallen. It is quite likely this seat will  open up in 08 and if not Dennis Hastert is damaged goods, a bygone relic  of an era that is gone. Illinois is  also a state trending clearly our way.  This is a great  chance.

13. OH 16
Republican Ralph Regula
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage  54%
Reasons for Weakness
When a nothing challenger holds you under 60% that is a problem. When you are already in your Eighties that is also a problem. When you are about to drop a tremendous amount in power that spells trouble. The Democrats already have a challenger and more will probably emerge.

14.  PA 18
Republican Tim Murphy
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04  Bush Percentage  54%
Reasons for Weakness 
Scandal appears to be rearing itself into this district in a way that helps us.  This combined with a district remarkably similar  to PA 4th where Melissa Hart was  recently beaten. If not for the scandal this district would rank lower but for now it is a prime target

15.  IL 6
Republican Peter Roskam
06 Winning Percentage 51% 
04 Bush Percentage  53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was the DCCC’s greatest folly, by choosing a non-local candidate. It allowed the Republicans to frame the race in a way favorable to them and ultimately win it.  That said the race was extremely close. A freshman Republican minority member has to beatable.  Finding a local candidate will be essential.

16. PA 6
Republican Jim Gelach
06 Winning Percentage  51%
04 Bush Percentage  48%
Reasons for Weakness
51%,  three straight elections. It seems as  if  Jim Gerlach  is a survivor which makes him difficult to defeat and yet he clearly has to deal with transition from majority to minority.  A good Democratic Candidate will make this a  race again and quickly.

17. NY 25
Republican Jim Walsh
06 Winning Percentage  51%
04 Bush Percentage  48%
Reasons for Weakness
  After not having a real challenger in a long time Jim Walsh was faced with the scare of his life. Democrat Dan Maffei was also not as well funded as he could have been.  As  one of the eight Republican in Kerry won districts. Jim Walsh can expect a real challenge though unlike other members he will be ready for it.

18. NM 1
Republican Heather Wilson
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage  48%
Reasons for Weakness
Another absolute squeaker and another chance to take a Republican held seat. Heather Wilson is as slick as they come, though people do seem to think that Patricia Madrid made a late debate error. Regardless, she is vulnerable but difficult to beat.

19. WY AL
Republican Barbara Cubin
06 Winning Percentage  48%
04 Bush Percentage  69%
Reasons for Weakness
No one likes Barbara Cubin and her extremely weak showing shows, and yet trying to overcome the Republican tilt of Wyoming is extremely difficult, particularly in a Presidential Year. It would not be surprising to see a better Republican challenge her in the primary. 

20.  OH 15
Republican Deborah Pyrce
06 Winning Percentage  50%
04  Bush Percentage  50%
Reasons for Weakness
If you basically run  in a tie with your opponent in a Congressional Race, you are vulnerable. However Deb Pryce is a seasoned campaigner and I am readily able to change roles, as her shift out of Republican Leadership shows.  This is a tough one but  completely winnable

21.  CT 4
Republican Chris Shays
06 Winning Percentage  51%
04  Bush Percentage 46%
Reasons for Weakness
In many ways Chris Shays is like many of the other close races except that he has more long term incumbency and will be expect a challenge. I am from CT so I know of recruiting difficulties.  It is a winnable race but one that requires a complete commitment to it.  Still  only eight Kerry won districts have Republican Incumbents this is one of them.

22.  IL 10
Republican Mark Kirk
06 Winning Percentage  53%
04  Bush Percentage 47%
Reasons for Weakness
The seventh  Kerry won district on the lists. Mark Kirk is much like Chris Shays was  after 2004. A scare yes, but he  still  had some breathing room. Picking him off will be very difficult, though Dan Seals giving it another try would be serious. 

23.  PA 3
Republican Phil English
06 Winning Percentage 54%
04  Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was another under-target in PA , an area which trended toward the party in a serious way. There have also been rumor’s abounding about Phil English. Finding a good challenger will be difficult but he is clearly vulnerable because of his underperformance.

24.  OH 1
Republican Steve Chabot
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage  51%
Reasons for Weakness
Steve Chabot had a real scare this time and came away with it quite well. He might be more vulnerable in a Presidential and the close nature of the district means it is winnable. One possible candidate is Paul Hackett, draft him and you have a race.  This race risks slipping a way. 

25. MI 11
Republican Thaddeus McCotter
06 Winning Percentage 54% 
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was another Michigan under-target particularly in relationship to funding.  That means the Vulnerable exists and is real. It is going to be a very tough nut to crack, but it fits the profile of many of the Democrat upset victories that happened across the country this year.

26.  NY 13
Republican Vito Fosella 
06 Winning Percentage  57%
04  Bush Percentage  55%

27.  NJ 5
Republican Scott Garrett
06 Winning Percentage  55%
04  Bush Percentage  57%

28. IL 11
Republican Jerry Weller
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04  Bush Percentage  53%

29.  IA 4
Republican
06 Winning Percentage  57%
04  Bush Percentage  51%

30. NY 3
Republican Peter King
06 Winning Percentage  56%
04  Bush Percentage 53%

31.  OH 2
Republican Jean Schmidt
06 Winning Percentage 51% 
04  Bush Percentage 64%

32.  VA 11
Republican Tom Davis
06 Winning Percentage 55% 
04  Bush Percentage 50%

33.  FL 1O
Republican Bill Young
06 Winning Percentage  66% 
04  Bush Percentage  50%

34.  CA 26
Republican David Drier
06 Winning Percentage 57% 
04  Bush Percentage  55%

35.  OH 3
Republican Mike Turner
06 Winning Percentage 59% 
04  Bush Percentage  54%

36.  NY 29
Republican Randy Kuhl
06 Winning Percentage  52%
04  Bush Percentage 56%

37.  FL 24
Republican Tom Feeney
06 Winning Percentage  58%
04 Bush Percentage  55%

38. DE AL
Republican Mike Castle
06 Winning Percentage 57% 
04  Bush Percentage  46%

39.  NJ 3
Republican Jim Saxton
06 Winning Percentage  58%
04  Bush Percentage  51%

40. MN 6
Republican Michelle Bachmann
06 Winning Percentage  50%
04  Bush Percentage 57%

41. OH 12
Republican Pat Tiberi
06 Winning Percentage 58% 
04  Bush Percentage  51%

42. NY 23
Republican John McHugh
06 Winning Percentage  63%
04  Bush Percentage 51%

43.  OH 14
Republican Steve LaTourette
06 Winning Percentage  58%
04  Bush Percentage  53%

44.  NJ 2
Republican Frank LoBiondo
06 Winning Percentage  62%
04  Bush Percentage  50%

45. WI 1
Republican Paul Ryan
06 Winning Percentage  63%
04  Bush Percentage 54%

46 MN 3
Republican Jim Ramstad 
06 Winning Percentage  65%
04  Bush Percentage  51%

47.  MI 4
Republican Dave Camp
06 Winning Percentage  60%
04  Bush Percentage  55%

48. ID 1
Republican Bill Salli
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 69%

49. FL 18
Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
06 Winning Percentage  62%
04 Bush Percentage 54%

50. MI 6
Republican Fred Upton
06 Winning Percentage  61%
04 Bush Percentage 53%

Republican Incumbents under 60%
Total  75 
AK AL  Don Young 57%
AZ 1 Rick Renzi 51%
AZ 2  Trent Franks 58%
AZ 3 John Shadegg 58%
CA 3  Dan Lungren 59%
CA 4 John Doolittle 49%
CA 26 David Drier  59%
CA 45 Mary Bono 59%
CA 46 Dana Rohrabacher 59%
CA 50  Brian Bilbray  54%
CO 4 Marilyn Musgrave 46%
C0 6 Tom Tancredo 59%
CT 4 Chris Shays 51%
DE AL Mike Castle  57%
FL 8 Rich Keller 53%
FL 15 Dave Weldon 56%
FL 21  Lincoln Diaz-Balart  59%
FL 24 Tom Feeney 58%
FL 25  Mario Diaz-Balart  58%
IL 10 Mark Kirk 53%
IL  11  Jerry Weller 55%
IL 13 Judy Biggert 58%
IL 15  Tim Johnson 58%
IN 3 Mark Souder 54%
IA 4 Tom Latham 57%
IA 5  Steve King 58%
KY 2 Ron Lewis 55%
KY 4 Geoff Davis 51%
LA 4 Jim McCrery 58%
MD 6 Roscoe  Bartlett 59%
MI 8 Mike Rogers 55%
MI 9 Joe Knollenberg 52%
MI 11 Thaddeus McCotter 54%
MN 2  John Kline 56%
MT AL Dennis Rehberg  59%
NE 1 Jeff Fortenberry 59%
NE 2 Lee Terry 55%
NV 3 Jon Porter 48%
NJ 3 Jim Saxton 58%
NJ 5 Scott Garrett 55%
NJ 7 Mike Ferguson 49%
NM 1 Heather Wilson 50%
NY 3 Pete King 56%
NY 13 Vito Fossella 57%
NY 25 Jim Walsh 51%
NY 26 Tom Reynolds 52%
NY 29 Randy Kuhl 52%
NC 5 Virginia Foxx 57%
NC 8 Robin Hayes 50%
OH 1 Steve Chabot 53%
OH 2 Jean Schmidt 51%
OH 3 Mike Turner  59%
OH 5 Paul Gillmor 57%
OH 12 Pat Tiberi 58%
OH 14 Steve LaTourette 58%
OH 15 Deborah Pryce 50%
OH 16  Ralph  Regula 59%
PA 3 Phil English 54%
PA 6 Jim Gerlach 51%
PA 15 Chrales Dent 53%
PA 16 Joe Pitts 57%
PA 18 Tim Murphy 58%
TX 7  John Culberson 59%
TX 10 Mike  McCaul  55%
TX 31 John Carter  58%
TX 32 Pete Sessions  57%
UT 3  Christopher Cannon  58%
VA 2 Thelma Drake 51%
VA 5 Virgil Goode 59%
VA 10 Frank Wolf 57%
VA 11 Tom Davis 55%
WA 5 Cathy McMorris 56%
WA 8  Dave Reichert
WV 2 Shelley Moore-Capito  57%
WY AL Barbara Cubin  48%

Republican Incumbents 55% or under
Total  34
AZ 1 Rick Renzi 51%
CA 4 John Doolittle 49%
CA 50 Brain  Bilbray 54%
CO 4 Marilyn Musgrave 46%
CT 4 Chris Shays 51%
FL 8 Rich Keller 53%
IL 10 Mark Kirk 53%
IL 11 Jerry Weller 55%
IN 3 Mark Souder 54%
KY 2 Ron Lewis 55%
KY 4 Geoff Davis 51%
MI 8 Mike Rogers 55%
MI 9 Joe Knollenberg 52%
MI 11 Thaddeus McCotter 54%
NE 2 Lee Terry 55%
NV 3 Jon Porter 48%
NJ 5 Scott Garrett 55%
NJ 7 Mike Ferguson 49%
NM 1 Heather Wilson 50%
NY 25 Jim Walsh 51%
NY 26 Tom Reynolds 52%
NY 29 Randy Kuhl  52%
NC 8 Robin Hayes 50%
OH 1 Steve Chabot 53%
OH 2 Jean Schmidt 51%
OH 15 Deborah Pryce 50%
PA 3 Phil English 54%
PA 6 Jim Gerlach 51%
PA 15 Charlie Dent 53%
TX 10 Mike McCaul  55%
VA 2 Thelma Drake  51%
VA 11 Tom Davis 55%
WA 8 Dave Reichert
WY AL Barbara Cubin 48%

Republican held District where George Bush got 55% of the vote or less
AZ 1
CA 26
CA 50
CT 4
DE AL
FL 8
FL 10
FL 18
FL 24
IL 6
IL 10
IL 11
IL 13
IL 14
IL 16
IA 4
MI 4
MI 6
MI 7
MI 8
MI 9
MI 11
MN 2
MN 3
NV 3
NJ 2
NJ 3
NJ 7
NM 1
NY 3
NY 13
NY 23
NY 25
NY 26
NC 8
OH 1
OH 3
OH 12
OH 14
OH 15
OH 16
PA 3
PA 6
PA 15
PA 18
VA 10
VA 11
WA 8
WI 1

Over 60% for Incumbent
FL 10
FL 18
IL 14
IL 16
MI 4
MI 6
MN 3
NJ 2
NY 23
WI 1

Other Potentially Vulnerable Freshman
ID 1 Bill Sali
MN 6 Michelle Bachmann
FL 13  Vern Buchann
NV 2 Dean Heller
FL 9 Gus Billikrais