IL-10: The Case for Top Tier Target Status

As I stated in my previous diary and numerous comments, I believe the Illinois 10th Congressional district is ripe for a flip.  Mark Kirk has served as the representative for the district since 2000, and while he claims to be a moderate, his record is anything but moderate.  In order to understand why this seat should be a prime target in 2008, it is first important to understand the district and its make up.

The Illinois 10th district covers a significant portion of Lake County in the northeast corner of the state and five townships on the north and northwest sides of Cook County (Cook County is the home to Chicago).  The five communities in Cook County are Elk Grove, Northfield, New Trier (Wilmette, Glencoe & Winnetka), Palatine and Wheeling.  Due to their proximity to the City of Chicago, the Cook County communities actually account for more votes than the Lake County townships (election data from Lake County and Cook County Clerk Websites).


YearCookCook %LakeLake %
2000112,11747%125,38953%
2002105,84757% 81,06443%
2004155,36956%121,34244%
2006114,75457% 87,45343%

More after the flip.

As you can see the Cook County townships represent about 57% of the vote, regardless of whether or not it’s a presidential election.  In 2000, the make-up was exactly the opposite.  Redistricting by the Republican controlled legislature added two Cook County Townships, Palatine and Elk Grove to the district.  These two townships represent just under 10% of the total district vote counts in each of the last three elections and voting trends in those townships approaches 2:1 Republican to Democrat.  Maybe when 2010 rolls around, the now Democratic controlled legislature can remove those townships (into either IL-6 or IL-9), but that doesn’t change the opportunity to pick this seat up.

Now that Mark Kirk has won 4 elections, one might assume his long-term incumbency status provides him ample protection but let’s take a closer look at those elections.


YearDem OpponentDem %Kirk %
2000Gash49%51%
2002Perritt31%69%
2004Goodman36%64%
2006Seals47%53%

To put his margins of victory into perspective, here is the money data from the FEC ($ Spent):


YearDem OpponentDem $kKirk $k
2000Gash$1,967$2,030
2002Perritt$  473$1,436
2004Goodman$  89$1,654
2006Seals$1,851$3,475

Based on the weakly funded challenges mounted by Hank Perritt and Lee Goodman, we should focus on the 2000 and 2006 races.  In 2000, Lauren Beth Gash was a well recognized, popular state representative with the ability to raise funds in the district.  A quick look at the results shows, she won Lake County, but lost Cook County.


CountyTotal VotesGash %Kirk %
Cook112,11746%54%
Lake125,38951%49%
Total237,50649%51%

Remember, this race was pre-redistricting, so there was more Democratic balance to Cook County to take advantage of.  In fact, looking at the presidential results from the townships in the district, State Rep. Gash actually underperformed the Gore-Lieberman ticket by 5 percentage points (Gore won those townships 51-48%).

Looking at the 2006 race, Dan Seals saw pretty much the same story, except he barely lost Lake County instead of carrying it like Gash.  Like her, Seals finished way behind in Cook County.


CountyTotal VotesSeals %Kirk %
Cook114,75445%55%
Lake87,45349%51%
Total202,20747%53%

Seals proved to be an excellent fundraiser, especially considering his novice political status and zero name recognition.  Again, a concern is he underperformed the 2004 presidential ticket by 5 percentage points in the Cook County Townships, just like Gash.  But here is the good news (and why we need to target this seat). 

1. Seals had the same Cook County results as Gash, despite the redistricting adding the heavily republican townships of Palatine and Elk Grove. 
2. Kirk had to outspend Seals 2:1 (see above chart on spending) despite Seals lack of name recognition.
3. The DCCC only spent approximately $125,000
4. Kirk minority status will weaken his ability to bring home federal $ to the district.
5. Either Obama (even as a VP candidate) or native daughter Hillary Clinton (she’s from Park Ridge, IL) will energize Illinois Democrats in 2008.
6. Kirk has very little cash on hand left, only $105,000.

I am convinced these are all reasons that are falling in our favor to flip this seat in 2008, and why the DCCC should make this seat a top tier target.  Of course, to make it a race, you need a top tier challenger and I have three candidates that would be great challengers.  Dan Seals would be one.  He can build on his effort from last year, and has proved he can raise money.  He can raise a bunch more if he starts now, and have a sizeable war chest by the time the primary rolls around.  My two other ideal candidates are our two local state senators in the district, Terry Link (ten years in the state senate) and Susan Garrett (4 years).  They both have good name recognition, ties to the communities in both counties and support within the local party.  I am unsure of their fundraising ability, and either one would have to prove their skill in that area to gain top tier target status.

IL-10 has real potential in 2008.  After reading this, I hope you agree.

IL-10: Mark Kirk Tries to Hide His Big Pharma Connections

Representative Mark Kirk of the 10th District of Illinois is at the top of my list to see unseated in the next election.  Kirk has always tried to play the “moderate” card during his time in congress, but he has always done that when convenient (ie. voting the moderate stance when his vote did not impact the outcome of the vote).  His status as a minority whip in the 109th Congress was much more telling of his politics than his voting record and his unimpressive legislative record. 

More on the flip…

Now that he has been saddled with minority status in the House, it will be interesting to see how he tries to hide is conservative bent with his moderate label.   My efforts over the next two years will be dedicated to exposing his real voting record and build a case for change in 2008…and so it begins with his vote on the bill requiring the government to negotiate better prices with pharmaceutical companies on behalf of the users of Medicare.

Mark Kirk’s week started out with unsurprising moderate votes of "yea" on bills to enact the 9/11 Commission recommendations (HR 1), increase the minimum wage (HR 2), and remove restrictions on federal funding of stem cell research (HR 3).    Then came his vote on the Medicare Bill (HR 4), or should I say non-vote.  Mark Kirk failed to vote on this legislation, even though he had the cover of the inevitable passage of the bill.  Even Kirk’s website has a dedicated paragraph to the Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit that he supported in the 108th Congress (this is important to note, since the congressman rarely highlights national issues on his website). So why would he not vote on this legislation?

Well, IL-10 is home to the headquarters of Abbott Labs and Baxter Healthcare.  A quick perusal of Kirk’s FEC filings for his fundraising for the last election cycle reveals contributions from Abbott’s PAC of $10,000, Baxter – $9,000, Caremark (another IL 10 company) $8,000, AMGEN $5,000, and SmithKlineGlaxo $1,000.  Individual contributions include $4,200 from Abbott CEO Miles White and $2,000 from Baxter CEO Robert Parkinson.   Now his non-vote becomes  a little more clear.    Mark Kirk wants to keep his moderate credentials, but can’t vote for HR4 because it will upset his Big Pharma connections.  So even though his vote would not change the outcome of the bill,  he is trying to play both sides of the fence by not voting – staying off record.  Fortunately, his FEC filings tell the real story.

As an aside, let’s take the two minutes to visit the hypocrisy of the GOP stance on this bill.  The GOP, long time defender of free markets and deregulation, believes that it is necessary to interfere with the free market and regulate the government by prohibiting it from using its market power to negotiate better terms for the drugs medicare pays for.  If the government was a corporation, its shareholders (taxpayers) would demand an efficient use of its assets (tax dollars).  This prohibition is about as un-republican as you can get, but nobody seems to call them on it.   Ahh, the hypocrisy.

Cross posted at Courage Makes a Majority

IL Primary May Move Earlier

In a bit of a surprise announcement during his swearing in ceremony, Illinios House Speaker and Democratic Party Chairman, Michael Madigan suggested Illinois should move up its primary date from Mid March to the first week of February, according to the Chicago Tribune.

More on the flip

The stated purpose for the suggestion would be to help Illinois’ own, Barack Obama gain early momentum in the Presidential Primary race (I guess we ignore Hillary Clinton’s Illinois roots, which is fine by me). 

The secondary impact though is probably the more relevant.  Illinois has always been an afterthought in the presidential nominating process.  It hasn’t played a vital role in the Democratic party’s nominating process in over 20 years, despite its solid blue status and its 21 electoral votes in the general election.

Even if Obama doesn’t gain the nomination, his rumored run may have real impact on Illinois polictics in the future.

IL-10: The Battle to Flip This Seat Begins Today

New Year, New Resolution, New Commitment to Making a Difference.  This is my first diary I have ever written on a major progressive blog.  I may not live in a Swing State (Illinois), but I certainly live in a Swing District, IL-10.  It is my intention to work deligently to see the seat currently occupied by Mark Kirk move to the Democratic column in 2008.

I was happy to see democratic avenger’s diary on The Ten House Candidates Who Should Run Again, which listed Dan Seals of IL-10 as #6. I really believe had the DCCC put the money it used in Tammy Duckworth’s campaign instead into Dan Seals race with Mark Kirk, we might have another seat in the house.  But that is water under the bridge and it is time to press foward.

Part of my plan is to write a weekly diary on Mark Kirk’s voting record and legislation sponsorship, exposing him as a faux-moderate, neocon-in-hiding GOP congressman.  Other diaries will include IL 10th District news, examination of the district political trends, etc.

Mark Kirk’s record as a legislator is marginal at best.  As a member of the majority party in 109th Congress and holding the position of assistant majority whip, Mark Kirk sponsored 32 pieces of legislation according to his THOMAS, 31 died in committee. The one item that passed was an amendment to an emergency appropriations bill to increase the funding for the DEA by $9.2MM. 

Some record of achievement.  You would think that he was living the life of a congressman in the minority party.  Let’s see what happens in the 110th Congress.  Hopefully, two years from now, we be celebrating the swearing in of Dan Seals to represent the 10th district of Illinois.

One Man With Courage Makes A Majority – Andrew Jackson