Author: Progressive America

Disclosure: Member of Joe Garcia’s media team.

I spoke with Joe earlier and he is very appreciative of the enthusiasm and support from the Dailykos, Open Left, and Swing State Project communities on the Blue Majority endorsement and wanted to say thank you. This campaign started in the Netroots and he wants to actively involve the blogosphere and progressive community in his campaign and if elected, in Congress.

Today the campaign released the following statement.

 

We are at a transformational moment in South Florida history and Joe is leading the way with a new vision for our community.

– Revitalizing our economy

– Quality healthcare that's affordable, accessible and reliable

– A real plan to save our Everglades and combat global climate change

– Fixing a Washington that's broken

– A safe and responsible end to the Iraq War

These are the issues that Joe is talking about. This is why a local campaign is now turning into a national movement.

There are many reasons why Joe and this district are a perfect match for progressives. Here are some of my reasons.

The Cuban-American community of South Florida remains one of the last Republican strongholds in the country. A loss here would be detrimental for Republicans and would mean their time with Hispanics is up. A loss here would also be detrimental to the conventional foreign policy thinkers in Washington who gave us the family travel restrictions. Unlike other policitians on the Democratic side in Florida, Joe has shown courage on the Cuba issue and called for the easing of travel restrictions and allowing for the unification of families. This is a stand Rep. Wasserman Schultz and others have refused to take in 70% blue districts, yet Joe is making his case in a 54% Republican one. A victory here would be a clear rebuke of the Washington style of foreign policy. 

With the Everglades in the district, Joe wants to make the environment and taking on climate change one of the most important issues in the race. It would be tremendous symbolically to have someone who cares about the environment and will work to protect the environment, representing the region. Mario Diaz-Balart received a terribly sad 15% rating from the League of Conservation Voters, not a record any Congressman should be proud of, especially not one from such an environmentally important area. The environment hasn’t necessarily been a top issue among Hispanic voters in the past, but in this race, progressives can begin to reach out and speak to them on the topic, particularly in relation to the Everglades.

Joe has also taken courageous stands on the general issues of importance to every progressive.

On the Iraq War, he’s not going to give into Bush, he’s going to take them on.

Our brave men and women have performed honorably. They have done everything asked of them. But the solution in Iraq is not a military solution. I would have voted for funding only if it included a requirement that removed our brave men and women from policing a civil war, brought them home and shifted the responsibility of security in Iraq to the Iraqis. Part of what has to happen is for grassroots and netroots activists to play a bigger role so the Democratic Party finds its courage again. We’ve lost courage in the biggest issues of the day. We tend to be scared off by Iraq, rather than truly supporting our troops by bringing them home.

On Retroactive Immunity he makes a very good point and stands firm against any kind of immunity for telecom companies that broke the law.

The type of broad retroactive immunity advocated by the Bush Administration is not acceptable. The legal purpose of immunity is to use the protection granted by such immunity as an inducement to divulge information about what occurred. Immunity in this case would do the opposite: it would shut down any investigation into what actually occurred.

As the son of two Cuban-American immigrants, Joe also believes it’s critically important we act responsibly on immigration policy. Joe has continuously worked with members of Congress to bring about comprehensive immigration reform. Joe will add diversity to the Democratic Party and be a valuable spokesperson on issues relating to Latin America.

In this election we can accomplish two things. We can elect someone who’s going to lead the progressive cause in Congress and we can send the Republicans packing out of South Florida for good.

Let's make that happen together. Get involved in the campaign and contribute today on Blue Majority's page.

 

This is Part 2 on a series focusing on the Florida State Senate and our efforts to take back the chamber. In Part 1 of the series, the current state of the Florida Senate was discussed, districts were put in categories based on Democratic strength, and our chances of picking up seats in those various categories was discussed.

Part 2 will focus on the “swing” or Category 4 districts for which elections will be held in 2008. These are districts where Gore took between 47-53% of the vote in 2000. There are four of these such districts that will have elections in 2008. They include the 7th, 11th, 13th, and 25th districts. At this time, it looks like Republican incumbents will be running for re-election in all of them, but this could change, particularly if Bill Young (US FL-10) were to retire from Congress. Two Republicans on this list could conceivably run for that seat.

Here is a State Senate Map for your viewing.

There are a couple things to keep in mind. It’s not necessarily true that these will be our best pickup opportunities in 2008. There is at least one race that I know of in Category 5 that surely will be a prime target for Democrats in 2008, probably moreso than at least a couple of these. Category 5 races and other possibilities will be discussed in Part 3.

Also keep in mind the Democratic performance is based on Gore’s results from 2000. The categories do not reflect on Nader’s vote, which could possibly add to our total. In many districts, demographics or voter trends have changed since 2000. In some cases like the 25th district, as I discuss below, the area has trended more Democratic. In other districts, like the 11th, the area may be trending more Republican, based on other recent elections.

Finally, one thing that all these Republican incumbents have in common is that they were first elected in 2002, a year that favored Republicans in the state and nationally. This was the year Jeb Bush went on to beat Democrat Bill McBride 56 – 43% in the Governor’s race. This likely gave lower-tier candidates a boost by several points. Unfortunately for us, many of these districts were open that year.

But now on to the future, which is looking very bright for Democrats. For a quick reminder, the Senate currently has 26 Republicans and 14 Democrats. We would need to pick up 6 seats for a tie and seven seats for a majority. We have until 2010 to take back the chamber before redistricting and many more seats will be open or contested in 2010, since senate elections are rotational, with half contested every two years.

25th district

Incumbent: Jeff Atwater 2000

Democratic Performance

Gore: 50%

Bush: 48%

Past State Senate Elections and Expenditures 2002 (Open)

Atwater (R): 55%, $748,000

Butterworth (D): 45%, $401,000

HD-25 Wiki

This is a district we can win and it has turned increasingly blue over the past few years. Al Gore actually won this district in the 2000 election and on top of that 2% went for Nader. It takes in the 22nd Congressional district, which was won by Democrat Ron Klein in 2006. In addition, the 22nd district actually went for Kerry stronger than it did for Gore, with both winning it. The district consists of eastern Palm Beach and Broward counties, including West Palm Beach, Boynton and Pompano Beaches, as well as the eastern stretches of Ft. Lauderdale and Oakland Park. Atwater won the seat in 2002 in an open seat election against the popular former Attorney General, Bob Butterworth. Atwater outspent Butterworth $748,000 to $400,000 in that election, a likely cause of our election loss, as well as the Republican-favored sentiment that year. If Atwater were to win re-election in 2008, he would likely become the Republican Majority Leader for the 2008-2010 session. In 2004, he faced no opponent in his second election to the Senate. Previously, he had won one term in the State House.

Robert Ostrov, an attorney, has already stepped up to challenge Atwater and former State Senator Skip Campbell and 2006 Democratic Attorney General nominee is considering a run. If Campbell were to run, he would offer a strong challenge with financial resources. In 2006, he actually won the district in his campaign for attorney general. He has also hinted that polls show that he could beat Atwater. Out of all the Category 4 seats, I would put this seat as our best pickup opportunity, especially if Campbell runs. Our major problem would be facing the Atwater fundraising machine. He’s already raised $564,000, of which $96,000 has been spent. Any Democratic candidate would need to be able to raise a good amount of money to compete. Campbell would likely be able to meet that challenge, so he definitely would be a good recruit. Our candidate would also likely have national Democratic sentiment and a strong candidate leading our ticket that would benefit them in this Democratic-leaning district in a year with no statewide races. I really think we can win this district and I would put it at “tossup” with a Campbell candidacy.

13th district

Incumbent: Dennis Jones

2000 Democratic Performance

Bush: 48%

Gore: 48%

Past State Senate Elections and Expenditures

2002 (Open)

Jones (R): 60%, $436,000

Kennedy (D): 40%, $53,000

HD-13 Wiki

The district consists completely of western Pinellas County and takes in parts of the 9th (Clearwater) and 10th (Seminole, Largo, and Dunedin) Congressional districts. Jones won the seat in 2002 in an open seat election and subsequently served as Majority Leader from 2002-2004. In his election win, he benefitted from the coattails of the state ticket and outspent the Democrat more than 8:1, so he has never been given a strong challenge for the seat. He has yet to face re-election in the Senate, though he won 11 terms in the State House. Jones has reported raising $153,000, of which $17,000 has been spent.

As of yet, no Democrat has entered the race. Jones has a long history in the district, so from that perspective challenging him could be difficult. However, there are many unknowns in this district. Despite being heavily outspent in 2002, Kennedy was still able to pull in 40%, so I would put that as our cellar support. If we financed a challenge against Jones, we could do much better than that and maybe even pull out a surprise, as Jones hasn’t faced an election since 2002 and doesn’t have the biggest fundraising numbers right now. It has also been widely rumored that Bill Young in the 10th district may retire and DCCC is poised to field a strong challenge to Gus Bilirakis in the 9th district. Democratic runs in those Congressional seats and national Democratic sentiment in 2008 could help a challenge in the state senate seat. This is a race we might want to start looking at.

7th district

Incumbent: Evelyn Lynn

2000 Democratic Performance

Bush: 51%

Gore: 47%

Past State Senate Elections and Expenditures

2002 (Open)

Lynn (R): 57%, $274,000

Ward (D): 43%, $226,000

HD-07 Wiki

The district consists of parts of Clay, Marion, Putnam, and Volusia Counties. It takes in pieces of the 3rd, 6th, 7th, and 24th Congressional districts. Lynn won the seat in 2002 in an open seat election battle in a year that favored Republicans, statewide and nationally. She had also served in the State House for four previous terms before running for the Senate. In the 2002 election, both parties spent about the same amount of money, but it's likely Lynn received a boost of a few points for statewide Republican sentiment. So far she’s amassed nearly $195,000 in fundraising this time, $13,000 of which has been spent. She raised around $136,000 of that money in the third quarter this year.

At the moment, there is no challenger in the district. The seat leans Republican for 2008, assuming Lynn runs. However, given the nature of the district, if a strong Democrat were to step up that could raise a large amount of money, then we could make this race competitive, especially since the presidential ticket will likely favor a Democrat, which could boost us up a couple points over that 2002 result. Some other factors that could favor us are a strong challenge to Feeney in the 24th district (New Smyrna Beach, Edgewater) by Suzanne Kosmas and strong spending and a big grassroots presence by Democrat Corrine Brown in the 3rd congressional district, which encompasses most of the state senate district. This is definitely somewhere where we should be able to compete and since Lynn hasn’t faced a challenge since 2002 this is a district we might want to challenge in 2008, when national sentiment should favor us.

11th district

Incumbent: Mike Fasano

2000 Democratic Performance

Bush: 49%

Gore: 49%

Past State Senate Elections and Expenditures

2002 (Open)

Fasano (R): 63%, $422,000

Cannon (D): 37%, $104,000

2004(I)

Fasano (R): 65%, $272,000

Mattingly (D): 36%, $4, 600

HD-11 Wiki

The bulk of the population resides in western Pasco and northern Pinellas counties, with some population in western Hernando and Citrus counties. The district is within the 5th, 9th, and 10th Congressional districts. Bush did win those districts by greater margins in 2004 than 2000, so it’s possible the area may be trending more for the Republicans. Fasano first won the seat in 2002 in an open seat election in a year that favored Republicans, statewide and nationally. In that election, Fasano outspent the Democratic candidate 4:1 and basically in 2004 the Democrat spent nothing. Fasano gained 2% on his performance in 2004, in another year that favored Republicans statewide and nationally. Before entering the Senate, he won four terms in the State House.

There are currently two Democratic challengers for 2008, Richard Skandera and Fred Taylor, a Vietnam veteran, who applied in December to run. Neither has reported raising any money yet, though Taylor just entered the race. Fasano has raised $183,000, $2,400 of which has been spent. I would put this seat as likely Republican, assuming Fasano runs. Like several of the others in this category though, we’ve never really given the Republican a real challenge and if 2008 favors Democrats, then we could have a chance if we field a strong challenger. Other factors that could help our nominee would be Bill Young retiring in the 10th congressional district, which consists of the population center of Palm Harbor. A strong performance in the 9th district against Republican Gus Bilirakis could also help us in this district.

The End

That's it for this edition. I think we should definitely compete in all of the above districts. In 2008, we are going to have a strong candidate, who I expect to win Florida, leading our national ticket and there will be no statewide elections. This by itself would give us an advantage over 2002, when Republicans were elected in open seats upon a Jeb Bush route in the Governor's race. Republicans will no longer have this luxury, so we should make sure we take advantage of it and give them the challenges of their lives. In 2006, now State Senator Charlie Justice won in one of these Category 4 "Swing" districts. It's clear sentiment and momentum are now favoring us and in 2008 we can win more of these seats. If anyone has anything to add or comments, that would be greatly appreciated.

Florida Senate Wiki Pages  

This data is for the Florida Senate. Information on the Florida House Numbers can be found here.

The Florida Senate currently has a 26 – 14 Republican majority. This means we need to pick up 6 seats to reach 50% in the chamber and 7 seats to win back the majority. We have two election cycles to accomplish this, but we will only have an opportunity at each Senate seat once, since only about half of the districts are up for grabs in any given election (except for years ending in 2).

Something that should be noted is that winning Senate seats can be much more difficult than winning House seats. Open seat contests are less frequent. In some cases we are facing entrenched incumbents who have already served for many years. In other cases, the districts are served by high-ranking officials (President, Pro Tempore, Majority Leader, etc..) and finally often it is the case we must take on candidates who were very popular in their State House districts. For all these reasons, I think our chances at taking back the Senate are lower than the chances of taking back the House, though it's close because we only need six or seven more seats in the Senate. Nevertheless, it’s a good idea to take a look at the partisan appeal of the districts first to see where our best chances of potential victory could be. In part 2, I’ll take a look at individual districts in the swing categories, examining past performance by our candidates in the most recent elections, possible retirements, and our top likely targets.

For reference, here is a district map of the Florida Senate.

2000 Democratic Performance (Presidential)

# x 2008 signifies the number of races that will be contested in 2008 Statewide Performance: 49 %

Category 1: 70 – 100, 3 districts (2 x 2008), 3 D, 0 R

Category 2: 60 – 69, 8 districts (5 x 2008), 8 D, 0 R

Category 3: 54 – 59, 2 districts (1 x 2008), 2 D, 0 R

Category 4: 47 – 53, 7 districts (4 x 2008, all R), 1 D, 6 R

Category 5: 41 – 46, 12 districts (6 x 2008), 0 D, 12 R

Category 6: 31 – 40, 5 districts (1 x 2008), 0 D, 5 R

Category 7: 0 – 30, 3 districts (1 x 2008), 0 D, 3 R

Due to gerrymandering, we already face a field of seats that is stacked against us despite the even split in the state. Democratic voters have mostly been thrown into the 11 districts that make up the first two categories, while Republicans have been spread out mostly into Category 5 districts, which favor the Republican Party. Democrats hold all 15 seats in the lean-Democratic districts and one seat (Charlie Justice in the 16th district) in Category 4. Republicans, likewise, hold all 20 seats that lean to their side. They also hold six of the seven swing districts in Category 4. Basically, if we want to win back the Senate we are going to have to win as many of these as possible and for every seat we don’t win in Cat. 4, we’ll have to win one in Cat. 5. Remember we need to take six seats from the Republicans.

Democrats have shown the ability to compete in some of the category 5 races, so certainly we could a have a shot at a few of these. In 2006, for example, the Democratic candidate lost by only four points 52 % – 48 % in an open seat contest in the 10th district (Gore – 41%). In this case, Democrats faced very controversial Republican Ronda Storms. In 2010, I’m sure Democrats will also give her another strong challenge.

If seats open up on the Republican side our chances of winning seats will naturally increase. In the 25th district (Cat. 4) represented by Jeff Atwater, Democrats did not even bother to field a challenger in his most recent re-election battle in 2004. Several high-profile Democrats may be stepping up to take him on in 2008, however, and it looks like there is a good chance he could be taken down if former state Sen. Skip Campbell runs. If well-financed Democrats were to step up in any of the incumbent-held districts, then that would give us better chances of winning. More on this in Part 2.

That finishes this part of the analysis. Now we have some data on districts, so we can make better judgments on what districts we should be challenging in the future. In part 2, I’ll actually take a closer look at the individual districts that will have elections in 2008, particularly in categories 4 and 5.

Election results can be found here and FPC Wiki Pages are here.

Category 1: 18, 29 (x), 33 (x)

Category 2: 01 (x), 19 (x), 30, 31 (x), 32, 34, 35 (x), 39 (x)

Category 3: 06, 27 (x)

Category 4: 07 (x), 11 (x), 13 (x), 14, 16, 25 (x), 28

Category 5: 03 (x), 09 (x), 10, 12, 15 (x), 17 (x), 20, 21 (x), 22, 23 (x), 24, 26

Category 6: 02, 08, 36, 37 (x), 38

Category 7: 04, 05 (x), 40

Cross-posted from Flapolitics.

I was reading Mike Lux’s post at Open Left on Congressional districts and why the Democratic caucus votes the way it does when an idea popped in my head. I was thinking why don’t we do something like this for the Florida legislature, but instead use it to see how we can take back the legislature.

In this edition, I’ve compiled the Florida House seats list. Like Lux did with Congress, I put the Florida House seats into seven categories based on Democratic Party performance. Unfortunately good data is not available for 2004 performance on the presidential level in individual state house districts, so I’ve had to stick with 2000 data, which is provided by the government. Some districts have seen demographic changes, particularly in central and southern Florida, so this list is not going to be completely accurate, but it will give us an idea of what we should be thinking about when we choose what seats we want to go after for the next two cycles.

Let’s keep in mind the goal is taking back the Florida House by 2010, so first of all we can have good policies again in our state. On the national level it also might interest outsiders, because if we win a chamber in government, then Democrats would have a say in the redistricting process that will affect the maps of Florida’s likely to be 27 Congressional seats for the next decade. It is obviously very important to the Democratic Party both inside the state and on the national level that we succeed in winning one chamber by 2010.

So now let’s get on to how we win back the Florida House. Currently as it stands, Republicans hold 78 seats to our 42 seats. That’s a 36-seat majority, meaning we need to win 18 seats to move into a tie with Republicans. Luckily we do have two more election cycles to accomplish this task. In 2006, we got off to a good start (if I remember correctly we picked up six seats?). Then in 2007, we built on that momentum, winning the 49th district (Cat. 3) seat in a special election.

2000 Democratic Performance

Statewide: 49 %

Category 1: 70 – 100: 20 districts, 20 D, 0 R

Category 2: 60 – 69: 10 districts, 10 D, 0 R

Category 3: 54 – 59: 5 districts, 5 D, 0 R

Category 4: 47 – 53: 19 districts, 5 D, 13 R

Category 5: 41 – 46: 40 districts, 1 D, 40 R

Category 6: 31 – 40: 19 districts, 1 D, 18 R

Category 7: 0 – 30: 7 districts, 0 D, 7 R

From this data we can see that as Democrats we already have the odds stacked against us. Despite having a 49 – 49 % split in the 2000 elections, the Republicans gerrymandered the districts to give a 66 – 35 district lean advantage to the Republicans, with 19 tossup districts in the middle. Even if we carry every tossup district, that still gives us only 54 seats. So to get to the magic 60 number, giving us 50% of seats, we must win an additional 6 seats from the lean Republican categories (We already have two of these, so four more), assuming we win every tossup and every lean-Democratic district. At the moment, we do hold every lean-Democratic district, but we only hold 5 of the 18 tossup districts. We hold two Republican favored districts, one in a 38% and the other in a 44% Democratic performing district. We therefore need to win at least four more of the Republican favored districts and for every district we don’t win in Category 4, we will need to win additional ones in Category 5.

From this I would say a central part of our strategy should definitely be going after those tossup districts. We really must win quite a few of those if we want to win back the House. It also should be noted that Democrats performed quite well actually in several of the Category 5 districts in 2006. We actually won the 107th district in 2006 and two of our four closest losses were from the 48th and 70th districts, where we captured 48 % and 49 % of the votes, whereas Gore pulled in only 45 % and 43 % in those districts, respectively. I’m not going to speculate on the possible causes of this movement here, though it could be any sort of things (good candidates, demographic changes, bad Republicans, statewide sentiment, etc…). The main good news though is that many Cat. 5 districts are certainly within reach for Democrats.

Another thing we should look at going into 2008 and 2010 are seats that will open up due to term limits. I looked at this particularly for the tossup districts. In 2008, we will see four open seats, one currently held by a Democrat and three by Republicans. In 2010, there will be five open contests, all seats currently held by Republicans. This gives us eight golden opportunities to pick up seats over the next two election periods. Like with the case for lean-Republican districts, just because a seat is not open does not mean Democrats are not able to compete. In 2006, the Democratic candidate captured 49% of the vote in the 83rd district against a Republican incumbent running for a 3rd term in office. Of course the open seats probably offer a better chance at victory for Democrats in most cases, but if we compete with a strong candidate and finances, then we can really compete in any of the Category 4/tossup districts and likely some of the Category 5 ones, as well. In particular, there are ten open seats that will be fought for in Cat. 5 districts. There will also be a special election in 2008 in the 38th district, a Cat. 5 district. We may have a chance there, especially given Bob Allen’s scandal-ridden resignation that opened this seat up.

Overall, from this data for 2008 I would say we definitely want to take a good look at those three open Republicans seats and look at defending our own. We’re also going to have to make a strong effort to win some of the other tossup districts and take a deeper look at several of the Cat. 5 races to see which ones will offer us our best chances of pickups. Remember, demographics have been changing in many of the districts, so those would be the ones to really look at. As an example, we know the 119th district (Cat. 5) where Michael Calderin is running has been growing in independent registration, while Republican registration has been declining most rapidly. Gore took 43 % in the district, but if that election were held again today perhaps that performance would be 45 % or higher. Of course it’s difficult to say, but it’s something to think about.

Here are the categories with their respective districts and open seats for 2008 are indicated for Categories 4 and 5, where we’ll surely be making several of our prime targets in 2008. For information on state house representatives, you can visit the Florida Progressive Coalition's Wiki Page and for information on the district performance see here.

Category 1: 08, 39, 55, 59, 78, 84, 86, 90, 93, 94, 95, 96, 98, 103, 104, 105, 106, 108, 109, 118

Category 2: 14, 15, 23, 27, 58, 88, 89, 92, 99, 100

Category 3: 36, 49, 53, 85, 97

Category 4: 09 (open-D), 22, 26, 28, 35 (open), 44, 45, 46, 50, 51, 52, 65 (open), 69, 81 (open), 83, 87, 91, 101, 120

Category 5: 03, 10 (open), 20, 21 (open), 24, 25 (open), 29, 30, 31 (open), 32 (special election 2008), 33, 34, 37 (open), 38, 40 (open), 41, 42 (open), 43, 47, 48, 54, 56 (open), 57, 60, 61, 63, 64, 66, 68, 70, 71, 72, 73, 79 (open), 80 (open), 82, 107, 114, 116, 119

Category 6: 05, 06, 07, 11, 16, 17, 62, 67, 74, 75, 76, 77, 102, 110, 111, 112, 113, 115, 117

Category 7: 01, 02, 04, 12, 13, 18, 19

Well now we know that there is at least one thing Republican crumb-bum C.W. “Bill” Young is good at: wasteful earmarking and spending.

Republican hypocrisy well at work.

From The Hill:

Senior Republican appropriators in the Senate have collected more money in earmarks than any other members of Congress, even though President Bush and GOP leaders have forcefully criticized “pork-barrel spending.”

Not only have these lawmakers defied their leaders, they have also taken a much greater share of the pot set aside for rank-and-file Republicans than have senior Democrats. As a result, some on the Hill are grumbling privately that GOP appropriators are “not only the kings of pork, they’re outright hogs,” in the words of one Senate Republican aide.

…

Rep. Bill Young (Fla.), the ranking Republican on the Appropriations Defense Subcommittee, is the second-biggest recipient of earmarked funds in the House, securing $161 million.

…

Young said that senior Defense Department officials come to him with requests for the military at large because he is the former chairman of the Appropriations Defense Subcommittee and the panel’s current ranking member.

Wow, who knew it could be so fun to be a Congressman.

Oh yeah and this comes from the same Bill Young who was one of only twelve US House members to vote against compensation for family members who lost their loved ones in a US Embassy bombing. That's right, only twelve Congressional representatives voted against it and Bill Young was one of them. Mind you, this is a D+1 district.

Rep. Bill Young: Good at wasteful spending for defense lobbyists, bad for everyone else.

Cross-posted from Flapolitics.com
http://www.flapoliti…

Here are my rankings with explanations for November.

1. FL-08 (R+3), Incumbent Ric Keller

Keller is facing flak over his flip-flopping and parsing on Iraq. He’s also been criticized for flip-flopping on his term limits promise. Keller voted against Stem Cell Research, voted against SCHIP and children’s health care, against negotiation of prescription drugs, and has voted in lockstep with Republicans on a host of issues taking our liberties away. These terrible votes aren’t the only thing making Keller the most vulnerable Republican in Florida. The district has only a slight tilt to Republicans and has been leaning more toward Democrats in recent years. Unions have also launched ads as part of a $1.5 million campaign against Keller for his anti-children’s health care vote.

Keller will face challengers from both parties in the race, undermining the criticism he has faced. On the Democratic side, Mike Smith and 2006 candidate Charlie Stuart, have both jumped into the race. Whoever wins our primary is going to have a great shot at victory in the 8th district.

2. FL-24 (R+3) Incumbent Tom Feeney

This is another district that has been leaning more towards the Dems in recent years. It doesn’t hurt that Feeney has been absolutely crazy, including his calls to privatize Social Security. I mean this is the guy who walks around with a Conservative Score Card every day in his pocket. He’s been involved in scandal after scandal, including connections with convicted felon Jack Abramoff. Polls now show him under 50% support, in fact, at a low of 42% against Democratic challenger Suzanne Kosmas, with our candidate only having 19% name recognition. Speaking of our candidate, she’s a former state legislature and should be able to raise the money to compete. Feeney has also been the target of a $1.5 million ad campaign by Unions for his vote against SCHIP. Feeney is probably toast in 2008.

3. FL-15 (R+3) Incumbent Dave Weldon

Weldon kind of goes a long with Feeney. They are both out of their minds. I wonder how they were even elected, if people knew what they were getting at the time. Get this though, in 2006 Weldon faced an underfunded 9/11 Conspiracy Theorist in his reelection bid and won with only 56% of the vote. Now that says something. Prospects are looking bright for the future of this district. Darren Soto won a special election in a previously Republican-held house seat in Kississimee, which also takes in this US House district, earlier this year. The recent influx of Puerto Rican voters may help a Democrat win this seat. Unfortunately, there is no current high-profile Democratic challenger in the race. Steve Blythe is running, however, but it’s yet to be seen how his campaign will go. Personally, I would like someone who is going to be able to raise the funds necessary to win. We really need to get rid of Weldon.

4. FL-25 (R+4) Incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart

Prospects also are looking brighter in this district. See here and here. Polls taken in the district have shown health care and Iraq to be the major issues of concern, not Cuba. Mario has straddled the hardline with the Bush Presidency. He’s continuously voted for more war and more surge. He’s voted against children’s health care and he’s voted against stem cell research. Currently, we have no challenger but the Draft Joe Garcia movement is off to a strong start. Should Joe get into the race, this would instantly become a very competitive race. Without a top-tier challenger, it would fall to less competitive.

5. FL-21 (R+6) Incumbent Lincoln Diaz-Balart

This race is pretty much ditto the above except Raul Martinez is the potential candidate. This district also tilts a little more toward the Republicans than the 25th and probably hasn’t seen the recent growth like the 25th district that would favor the Dems.

6. FL-13 (R+4) Incumbent Vern Buchanan

Tempers still flare over the disputed 2006 election. I think that was probably our best chance of picking up the seat, but 2008 could offer a similar battle. Our candidate from last time, Christine Jennings, is running again and has already earned support from Emily’s List. The area has also seen a lot of growth and particularly that in Sarasota favors the Democrats, where we’ve picked up county seats recently. We have a good shot certainly of picking up this district, if the money is there for another run.

7. FL-18 (R+4) Incumbent Ros-Lehtinen

This race is similar to the other Miami districts. At the moment, however, there are no high-profile rumored Democratic candidates. If we can get a good candidate, then this race would be competivie.

8. FL-10 (D+1) Incumbent Bill Young

This race all depends on Bill Young retiring. If he retires, then this race instantly moves up to our #1 best pickup opportunity. If he doesn’t retire, then it’s probably over. For now, I’ll put this seat here until we hear more. As a note, State Senator Charlie Justice has been rumored to be running for the Democrats and he would be a formidable candidate.

9. FL-05 (R+5) Incumbent Brown-Waite

We still need a credible challenger. Either way it will be an uphill battle. Brown-Waite won 60% of the vote in 2006. She has faced the $1.5 million ad campaign though, targetted by Unions for her vote against children’s health care.

10. FL-09 (R+4) Gus Bilirakis

I just don’t see how we’re going to win this one, if we lost it in 2006 in an open race. Many candidates are lining up to take on the Republican incumbent, however, and the first reelection bid is always the most difficult, so we’ll see if we make this a good challenge.

All Others

FL-01, FL-04, FL-06, FL-07, FL-12, FL-14

We’re probably not going to win these, but it never hurts to try.

Overall, we still need candidates in FL-04, FL-06, FL-18, FL-21, and FL-25

I predict we will pick up 3 seats in 2008.

What are your rankings/predictions?