Author: Progressive America

Over the weekend, people have been talking, activists have been working, and momentum has been building. Now it’s time to act.

It all started a few weeks ago. Joe Garcia, who serves as Miami-Dade Democratic Party Chairman and Cuban American National Foundation Executive Director (as well as a host of other activities), was interviewed by The Hill. In the interview, he said he would consider running for Congress in the 25th district, if he was asked to.

So last week I posed the idea, “FL-25: Republicans in Trouble, Should We Draft Joe Garcia?”

Basically, the Republican machine and stronghold in Miami-Dade is falling apart. What were once solidly Republican-leaning traditional Cuban-American districts are now becoming integrated districts with immigrants from around other parts of the US. And the new generation of Cuban-Americans from the districts is not buying the old Republican rallying tactics of anti-Cuba rhetoric. Polls taken in the district have shown health care and Iraq as the major issues. Republican registration is down and once solidly safe local Republican incumbents are facing the challenges of their lives, including from the Florida Netroot’s own Michael Calderin, in the 119th Florida house district. With the current political winds in our favor, we need to take advantage of this situation.

…

So the questions is, should we start asking? Should we draft Joe Garcia into the race?

Word started spreading all around Democratic circles in Miami and Florida, in the media and in the blogs.

From local Florida blog Stuck on the Palmetto:

I’ve liked Joe Garcia ever since I heard him hand Henry Gomez his a** during a debate on one of the babalu Radio Hours. It really was a thing of beauty and revealed Garcia to be articulate and forward thinking, particularly on Cuba foreign policy matters, and not mired in the failed policies of the past 40 some odd years.

[Listen to Joe debate hysterical Cuban-American hardliner Henry Gomez here. Let the broadcast download and advance it to about 19:00 when the conversation begins. The debate ends abruptly when Henry mutes Joe at 54:00.]

Joe has said he would run if he was asked. Let’s ask. Let’s start tossing out relics of the past and start looking forward.

A facebook page was created and already has over 50 members!

James L right here at Swing State Project also covered the election prospects of this run, in “FL-25: A Foe for Mario?”“

I think this could be a fun race, and I don’t think that the GOP is well-situated to appeal to the Cuban community in the long term, where the Iraq War and S-CHIP are as big of a set of concerns as they are everywhere else.  And, let’s face it, the GOP’s Latino outreach hasn’t been exactly spectacular in recent years.

Still more commented at the draft blog, Gloria wrote:

Joe Garcia is exactly what we need for the Democrats to get a voice in South Florida. I am totally behind this effort and I have personally told him to run in the past and am doing so again – Please Joe, run run run and give some other voice a chance to be heard besides one of the Diaz Balart brothers.

…

Even though I live in Lincoln’s district, Mario’s is next door and we have to start somewhere and Joe Garcia – would be great.

And Sandra said:

I will be another HUGE supporter of Joe Garcia. I write Mario Diaz Balart constantly and I am frustrated and sick of him ignoring the needs of his constituents He just repeats the talking points and the lies of the administration. I will be more than happy to volunteer my time if he decides to run.

We desperately need a change.

Meanwhile, a Republican chimed in:

I am a lifelong republican and a conservative yet I am also a Cuban-American who believes that we need new blood and ideas on the debate over Cuba policy.

Go Joe!

And one of the latest comments comes from Bonnie:

As a voter in the 25th, I urge you to run for Congress so that we will finally have a rational voice. You will have my vote and can count on my help as a volunteer.

Then Joe responded!

On Friday, Joe spoke with Nicole Sandler on WINZ radio (Media Player). In the interview, which you can listen to at the link above, Joe said he was considering the decision with his family and would likely make a decision in a couple months. He spoke positively on the Party’s efforts to get challengers running in all three districts currently represented by Republicans. On a side note, he also endorsed the idea of Publicly-Financed Elections in the interview. I think many of us couldn’t agree more.

If this wasn’t enough, in an email sent out by Joe Garcia himself to the Miami-Dade Democratic Party’s mailing list, Joe had this to say:

“While I am still far from making a decision, I do want to say that your kindness and support are very humbling and much appreciated!”

I was extremely thrilled to hear this from Joe. He would make a terrific Congressman. No longer in FL-25 would we have a vote for more war. No longer would we have a vote against SCHIP and children’s health care. No longer would there be a vote against life-saving Stem Cell Research. We could actually send a Congressman to Washington who would vote for allowing negotiation for prescription drugs. We would have a Congressman who would support publicly-financed elections. But most importantly, we would add a progressive voice in Washington, who isn’t afraid to say the truth.

So now the real fun part begins. We need to let Joe know if enters this race that he will have real grassroots support to win the election. As an experienced leader, who has served his community all his life, who has stood up for those in need of help, I know he would be a worthy Congressman. But we need to step up and let Joe know we want him in Congress. Joe said he would consider running if asked. Well true to his word he is considering. Now we need to ask him to run.

The Draft Joe Garcia website/blog has been gradually launched over the weekend. Now it’s about up and running at full speed.

An Act Blue Page has also been set up and the goal is to reach 100 contributors of $5.00 each. The amount has two benefits. It’s small, so it’s not going to break anyone’s piggy bank, but it will also have an impact well beyond its monetary value. It’s about showing Joe the grassroots wants him to run and he will have our support should he enter the race. The goal is actually a bit ambitious, but I think we can reach it. This victory would be particularly sweet for the Florida netroots, which has been growing very rapidly over the last couple of years. So please contribute to get Joe in the race, if you are able.

Why I Ask Joe to Run

The reason why I’m asking for Joe to run is quite simple. Miami and surrounding counties are changing. No longer are these areas the Republican strong-holds that they once were. The 25th district’s constituency simply does not reflect the right-wing and Bush rubber-stamp votes being made by Mario Diaz-Balart. So 2008 offers us the chance to pick up the district and we need someone to run who is going to stand up for basic Democratic Party and progressive principles, like expanding health care coverage, voting to get money out of politics, and ending the war in Iraq. This is our chance to take back this seat, but not only that, send someone to Washington who is going to do the right thing for the people of the district, Florida, and America. Recently in November, Joe led Democrats to record victories in Miami-Dade elections. Now let’s lead him to victory, but first we have to get him in and build a strong grassroots network for the campaign.

Will you ask Joe to run? Will you add your voice to the many already asking Joe to give Mario the political challenge of his life?

Four Things You Can Do Right Now

Contribute $5.00
Sign The Petition
Facebook Page
Draft Website

I previously diaried on the potential pickup opportunities in 2008 in Florida at dailykos (http://www.dailykos….).

It was suggested to me that I also post them here and I have updated a few of the situations.

Now I see an opportunity for Democrats to swing as many as two to five seats to the Democratic column in Florida.

Here are the rankings with this information:
(District: Representative (PVI, 2004 Election, 2006 Election, Funds Raised in 2006 of Republican – Democrat)

Toss-Up

8th District: Ric Keller (R+3, 61% – 39%, 53% – 46%, $1,225,000 – $918,000)

This could possibly be the best Democratic pick-up opportunity in Florida for 2008. Keller was first elected to the Orlando area seat in 2000, winning in a Republican primary runoff race after rallying on an 8-year term pledge that his opponent would not agree to. He went on to beat the Democratic opponent with only 51% of the vote. His seat was redistricted in 2002 to be more Republican friendly, yet it still has a low PVI. In 2006, his election victory was anything but impressive, as he held on with just 53% of the vote. Now he has said he is going to go against his term limit pledge that won him election in 2000. He has also voted against Stem Cell Research. Both of these issues could be crucial in a funded 2008 election contest, which is definitely going to happen.

13th District: Vern Buchanan (R+4, 0%, 50% – 50%, $6,064,000 – $2, 051,000)

We all know the story here. The 2006 election was stolen from Democrat Christine Jennings. If Jennings does not get the seat now, there is going to be a big 2008 election battle. It is actually amazing Jennings did so well, considering Buchanan’s massive war chest. It just shows where the district stands.

Update: Sided with Bush on Iraq escalation resolution.

Toss-Up (Possible Retirement)

10th District: Bill Young (D+1, 69% – 31%, 66% – 34%, $550,000 – $32,000)

This district covers Pinellas County and Young has been the representative there since 1971, despite the slight Democratic lean of the district. At 76 years of age and also the most senior Republican member of the House of Representatives, it is very well possible Young might retire, especially since his party has now gone into minority status. He previously held the position of Chairman of Committee on Appropriations and now has been delegated to ranking minority member on the Subcommittee on Defense. There was speculation even before the 2006 election that he would retire, but he ran again. Now speculation will build even more in the months to come, as his power in the House has disappeared. If the seat becomes open, it should be a very costly election of which the Democrats have a great chance of winning. If he runs again, there will probably be little chance of picking up the seat. What we should do is try to recruit a really good candidate now and that might speed up Young’s decision. Chances are he does not want to face a tough reelection battle if he does run again, so if we get a good candidate early we could scare him into retirement.

Update: With the news of the Walter Reed situation (http://www.dailykos….), the chances of a retirement may be increasing even further. It’s time to push him into retirement.

Young also sided with Bush on the Iraq escalation resolution and this is a Dem district. It’s time to really start hammering him.

Slight Republican Lean

15th District: Dave Weldon (R+3, 65% – 35%, 56% – 44%, $727,000 – $91,000)

First elected in 1994, Weldon is serving a fairly moderate district, with only a slight Republican advantage. Match that with his far-right voting record and that is why this seat will be competitive in 2008. One of his big blunders was his efforts to keep Terry Schiavo alive. He faced a lot of criticism from his central Florida district for that. But he has also had a far-right voting record, including his vote against Stem Cell Research in the last Congress and this one. In this Congress, he has voted down 9/11 Rec., Minimum Wage, Medicare Negotiation, Student Loans, Alternative Energy, and Stem Cell Research. His 2006 election performance was terrible and he had more than seven times the amount of money as his opponent, but he garnered just 56% of the vote. He should and will face a tough reelection battle in 2008.

Update: Sided with Bush on Iraq escalation resolution.

21st District: Lincoln Diaz-Balart (73% – 27%, 59% – 41%)

Lincoln is a Cuban politician who has represented the Miami 21st district since 1993. Lincoln could certainly be vulnerable. The district is fairly moderate and has had low turn out, only 111,000 voters in 2006. The election in 2008 could provide a great opportunity for Democrats to go after the Cuban vote, with older Cubans becoming less influential and possible changes in Cuba in the future.

Update: See Cuban Vote (http://www.dailykos….)

24th District: Tom Feeney (R+3, 100%, 58% – 42%, $1,295,000 – $44,000)

The Orlando area district is moderate, but Feeney is on the extreme far right-wing of the Republican Party. Feeney is so conservative that he has developed a Conservative Check Card for members in Congress when voting on legislation. He voted against all bills of the 100 Hours Plan, absolutely everything. In 2006, he was named as one of the 20 Most Corrupt Members of Congress by CREW. Most notably, he has faced controversies for lobbyist paid trips he has taken. He was first elected in 2002, faced no opponent in 2004, and in 2006, as can be seen he did not have an impressive victory. In fact, his opponent had 26 times less funds to use in 2006, making the election even more miraculous. Tom Feeney should be hammered in 2008. He is far right on the issues compared to his moderate district. This district is winnable.

Update: Sided with Bush on Iraq Escalation resolution.

25th District: Mario Diaz-Balart (R+4, 100%, 58% – 42%, $658,000 – $35,000)

Mario is the brother of Lincoln Diaz-Balart and he is in a similar district, slightly less Republican, in Miami. The district also had low turn out in 2006, with just around 102,000 voters. Democrats should make a strong effort to win the 21st and the 25th district in 2008. Perhaps some kind of campaign plan could be made to campaign against both the brothers at the same time. A key issue could be Stem Cell Research, both of them voted against it.

Update: See Cuban Vote (http://www.dailykos….)

Leans Republican

5th District: Ginny Brown-Waite (66% – 34%, 60% – 40%, $736,000 – $80,000)

The district was previously represented by a Democrat, Karen Thurman, who is now Chairman of the Florida Democratic Party. However, after redistricting Brown-Waite took the district narrowly in 2002. The district is still somewhat moderate, though, and around 250,000 people in the district receive Social Security checks. Brown-Waite has had many controversies since running for office. In 2002, her husband was caught stealing Thurman campaign signs. In 2004, she faced criticism for sending free Congress mailings to constituents before the election. She has also defended Muslim hate-rhetoric. If we were going after candidates for disgust fullness, Brown-Waite would probably be our first choice. She has been a terrible representative and has not upheld the honor of the House nor of the people of her district. If we want to go after her in 2008, her vote against Prescription Drugs Negotiation could be a start.

6th District: Cliff Stearns (64 – 36%, 60% – 40%, $775,000 – $123,000)

Stearns has represented the district since 1989, when he won an open seat previously held by a Democrat. He did lose support from 2004 to 2006 and it will be interesting to see if we can continue that trend throughout the next two years.

9th District: Gus Bilirakis (R+4, 0%, 56% – 44%, $2,557,000 – $1,174,000)

Bilirakis just won this seat in 2006 after it was vacated by his father, who spent 23 years in the seat. It is still only a slight Republican district. And Bilirakis has set himself up as a target in 2008 by voting against Stem Cell Research. This will be a race to watch in 2008.

18th District: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R+4, 65% – 35%, 62% – 38%, $931,000 – $59,000)

Ros-Lehtinen was first elected in 1988. She is serving a Cuban-Miami district and she is against having relations with Cuba, which is where she garners most of her support. She supports gay rights and is moderate on some other issues. However, she voted against Stem Cell Research, which should be used against her in 2008. Overall I am not quite sure Democrats have as much a chance at this district as they do the other two Republican held Miami districts.

Likely Republican

1st District: Jeff Miller (74% – 26%, 69% – 30%, $316,000 – $52,000)

The 1st district is possibly the reddest in all of Florida. It has not supported a Democratic Presidential nominee since 1960 and has not elected a Democrat to Congress since 1994. Miller first won the seat in 2001 in a special election after Joe Scarborough resigned. He has since been reelected by fairly large margins.

4th District: Ander Crenshaw (100%, 70% – 30%)

The district has not sent a Democrat to Congress since redistricting in 1992, when a Republican was first elected to the seat. Crenshaw was elected in 2000 and since has become a Deputy Majority Whip in the Republican Party. After facing no opponent in 2004, he was elected by a large margin in 2006.

7th District: John Mica (R+3, 100%, 67% – 37%, $731,000 – $21,000)

Mica first won the seat in 1992 after redistricting. In 2006, he won by a large margin, despite the fact the PVI for the district is only R+3. Based on this last election, it is unlikely the seat can be picked up, but we should still continue to challenge it like we should all districts.

12th District: Adam Putnam (65% – 35%, 69% – 19% – 12%)

There was no Democratic opponent in the race in 2006, only two independents. Putnam first won the seat in 2000 and he has faced no Democratic opponent twice since then. He now serves as the 5th ranking Republican in the House. It is doubtful Democrats could pick this seat up, but we should definitely field someone.

14th District: Connie Mack IV (68% – 32%, 64% – 36%, $1,088,000 – $29,000)

Mack was first elected in 2004, after winning an open seat previously held by Porter Goss. This is another district, where it is doubtful Democrats can win.

In all of the cases, the money battle is startling. Democrats were heavily underfunded in all of the races, but still managed to be competitive. In the races against Weldon, the two Diaz-Balart brothers, and Feeney, the Democrats were campaigning with extremely little funds, but still managed to hold the incumbents below 60% and in the case of Weldon, just 56%.

Democrats have a real shot of picking up a few seats in Florida in 2008, particularly a couple of possible surprises in Weldon and Feeney, two dedicated members of the far-right wing conservative alliance in the Republican Party.