VA-Gov: Deeds Surges in New Survey USA Poll

Survey USA for WDBJ 7 in Roanoke

Survey USA polled the Virginia Governor’s race again, and with less than three weeks to go, State Senator Creigh Deeds is surging.

Terry McAuliffe leads with 37%.  Deeds is now in second with 26%.  Former Delegate Brian Moran now sits in third place with 22%.

I think this is great news.  I’m rooting for Deeds–I thought he was very impressive in the debate I saw on C-SPAN, and think that he would be the strongest challenger against Attorney General Bob McDonnell.  He’s the only candidate who gained ground since the last SUSA poll, and now leads in Central Virginia.

Being the only candidate from Southern Virginia, I think Deeds can hold our margin down there.  I think he’ll be able to run up the score in NoVA, too–at least as much as he has to.  McAuliffe still seems like a wild-card, and I don’t see Moran pulling it out.  The primary is on June 9; the general in November.

This is certainly a race to watch.

http://www.deedsforvirginia.com/

http://www.terrymcauliffe.com/

http://www.brianmoran.com/

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“May God Save The Queen, Because Nothing Can Save The Governor General!”

Governor General Michaëlle Jean granted a request from Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper to prorogue Parliament.  This means that the Conservatives will avoid next week’s no-confidence motion, which would have tossed Harper out of power.  Gov. Gen. Jean could also have denied the request, and then either seated the Coalition government or called a new election after the no-confidence motion passed next Monday.

The Liberal and New Democratic Parties had agreed to form a coalition following the woeful budget submitted by the Conservatives last week.  This coalition, backed by the sovereigntist Bloc Québécois, has a majority of seats in the House of Commons.  However, Stpehen Harper has apparently taken his ball and went home, and Canada will be without a functioning Parliament for the next two months in the middle of a global economic meltdown.

Leaders of the coalition are confident that the two months off will do nothing to give Mr. Harper the confidence of the Parliament unless major changes are made.  Leader of the Coalition and Would-Be Prime Minister Stéphane Dion said “warm sentiments are not enough. His behaviour must change.”  NDP leader Jack Layton was more militant, saying “[confidence in the government] isn’t going to be restored by seven weeks of propaganda.”  Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe is attempting to incite a backlash in Québec, declaring that “the Conservative leader denigrated the votes of all Quebecers.”

Parliament will reconvene on January 26, where, if the Coalition leaders’ predictions are correct, Harper will lose his Prime Ministership.

I’m quite a bit upset about this.  First of all, it sets an awful precedent for the future.  Saying that a Prime Minister can prorogue Parliament anytime he wants to avoid a no-confidence motion is dangerous.  I also fail to see what will change–either Harper submits a similar proposal and loses his government or he adopts one favourable to the Coalition, neither of which are good scenarios for the Conservatives.

I’m very curious to see how Harper’s attacks on the Bloc affect Monday’s Provincial Election in Québec.  The Bloc is clearly trying to incite a backlash, and it appears it may be working.  The Partí Québécois is hoping to make huge gains, as Québec Pride is raised from the constant bashing of the Bloc.

Needless to say, it’ll be a pretty interesting election in Québec next Monday, and a pretty interesting couple of months in Canada.

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LA-01: Harlan Down 11

After Steve Scalise won the special election this spring with over 75% of the vote, most Democrats wrote off this election for November.  That is, until Jim Harlan stepped up to the plate.  With a large personal fortune to invest, Harlan has been running one of the DCCC’s “Emerging Races” and one of SSP’s “Races to Watch.”

Things just got a whole lot more interesting.  Via e-mail:

Jim asked us  to send you some secret campaign information asap, before it hits the papers. I think you will be pleased.

Jim has moved to within 11 points of Steve Scalise after starting from 53 points behind. Now, Scalise is 8 points below 50% – a devastating position for any incumbent but a particularly big problem for Scalise who has only been in office since the Spring of 2008 and only won with 33,000 total votes.

Some quick arithmetic points to a 42-31 race.  That’s certainly winnable, especially as Harlan hits Scalise hard on hurricane relief:

Things are looking good in Louisiana.