Author: Tarheeman1993

2010 will be a key year in North Carolina politics.  There has been some discussion on whether my home state has officially “seceded” from the South.  2010 (and 2012) will probably direct us on whether the Tar Heel state will become more reliably Democratic for the next generation.

NC-Sen  Richard Burr is not popular, and he is not unpopular.  The truth of the matter, Burr is unknown by a large portion of the electorate.  Enter in Cal Cunningham and Elaine Marshall, and we will see a healthy Democratic primary (Elaine is a class act, and Cal seems to be a true progressive).  This seat is a Tossup.

NC-01 G.K. Butterfield (D) will be re-elected.  Period.

NC-02 If Bob Etheridge (D) does not run for the US Senate, he will be easily re-elected.  If he doesn’t run, this seat will be a tossup.  Etheridge relates well in this area, but at the same time he represents a mildly conservative district.

NC-03  Until 1994, Walter B. Jones Jr.(R) was a Democrat!  Few know that his father was a representative for 28 years.  His father was a moderate/conservative Democrat.  That being said, Walter Jr. is popular in his conservative district, and as Republicans go, he doesn’t mind voting against his party.

NC-04 David Price (D) (my representative) will win in a cakewalk.

NC-05 Virginia Foxx (R)is not as popular in her very conservative district as many might think.  However, barring a scandal Foxx will be re-elected.

NC-06 Howard Coble (R) will win easily if he runs for re-election (he will be 79 in 2010).  If he doesn’t run, whomever wins the Republican primary will win the general election.  This is a very conservative district.

NC-07 Mike McIntyre (D) is a blue dog that represents his district well.  He will have no problem being re-elected.

NC-08 Larry Kissell (D) will have a fight on his hands even if the GOP can only pursuade a 2nd-rate candidate.  I think Kissell wil win, but he will probably get no more than 55-58% of the vote.  This district is culturally conservative, but a populist Democrat can (and will) prevail.

NC-09 Sue Myrick (R) will win re-election with little problem.

NC-10 Patrick McHenry (R) will win this race although he’s probably not as popular as you might think in a conservative district.  Unfortunately, the very young McHenry will become more entrenched as the years go by.

NC-11 Heath Shuler (D) knows how to play this district well.  A good challenger could defeat Shuler, but Shuler should win easier as the years go by.

NC-12 Mel Watt (D) will win this election as long as he has the desire to run.  There is no indication that he wants to step down.

NC-13 Brad Miller (D) will be safe barring (a) another economic meltdown and (b) a personal scandal.  I don’t consider a divorce will be much of a factor.

In conclusion, the Democrats have one race where they might pick up (NC-Sen), but they will have to play some defense in NC-08.  Also, if Bob Etheridge or Mike McIntyre leave their districts, the Democrats will have to play some defense.

Back in 2004, North Carolina preferred a potted plant (err..Richard Burr) over an uncharismatic, aloof candidate (Erskine Bowles).  Although trailing in the polls during the 2004 Summer, Burr caught on fire and defeated Bowles 52-47.

How did Burr win?  Well, it wasn’t for his charisma, and it wasn’t because of name recognition.  It wasn’t for his progressive ideas or his brain power.  Burr won because (a) the GOP brand was hot in 2004, (b) the Democrat was a crummy candidate, and (c) Bush ignited the Republican base.

Going forward today, let me list Richard Burr’s accomplishments during his tenure in the US Senate.  Well, let me think…oh yeah, he told his wife during the financial meltdown to withdraw as much as humanly possible out of the ATM that night (and every other day afterward).

I’m being sarcastic..I’m sure he has some sort of record that he can promote, but he’s not too good about communicating them to the folks in NC.

Going to the 2010 election, what plan does Burr have to win re-election?  He doesn’t have Dubya running, and the GOP brand is not as hot in NC as it was in 2004.  His only hope is that the Democrats nominate an uncharismatic candidate and that the Obama administration has some severe stumbling blocks.

I don’t see Burr winning re-election unless the GOP name catches on fire again to the 2004 level.  I also don’t see the Democrats nominating a boring candidate like Erskine Bowles again.

My preferred candidate is Cal Cunningham.  He’s young, attractive, and a progressive.  He’s a Captain in the U.S Army reserves.  He has charisma.  He could be the next John Edwards (the 1998 version) to sweep NC.

Okay, everyone is thinking of “name recognition”.  In NC, name recognition of new candidates don’t mean much.  John Edwards wasn’t a true “name candidate” in 1998.  He was a high-profile attorney in Raliegh, but most of the state had no idea what John Edwards was about.  Kay Hagan was not well-known, either.

What did Hagan and Edwards have in common?  They were both young candidates that represented the ideas and beliefs better than the incumbent.  In addition, both were much younger than the incumbent Senator.  Cunningham also is considerably younger than Burr, and he is also a better fit for the NC electorate than the very conservative Richard Burr.

Don’t dismiss Cunningham because of his lack of name recognition.  Name recognition should be Burr’s problem (a third of the electorate has no idea that he is their Senator).

 

Having grown up in North Carolina and being a distant relative to “Senator Sam”, I’ve been told many times that his Class 3 Senate seat has been cursed.  Is this true?  Here are the facts:

(1)  Sam Ervin was a conservative Democrat that held the highest regards for the U.S. Constitution.  He was often at odds with the Democratic party on key issues, especially civil rights.

(2)  Sam Ervin was the chair of the Watergate Committee.  

(3)  Sam Ervin’s replacement, Bob Morgan, was from a similar mold as Sam, but not as eloquent in delivery.  Having served for one term, he was defeated in 1980 due in part from the Reagan Revolution.

(4)  Morgan’s successor, John East, was a conservative Republican East Carolina professor from the same cloth as Jesse Helms.  East was bound in a wheelchair, had been suffering, and commits suicide in 1986.

(5)  Jim Broyhill is appointed to replace John East.  Broyhill, a Republican, faced former NC Governor Terry Sanford in the general election.  Sanford won due to name recognition and the fact that 1986 was a Democratic year.

(6)  Terry Sanford votes against the first Gulf War, angering many North Carolinians.  Sanford also suffered from health issues and may wondered if he could serve another 6 years.  Lauch Faircloth (R), a former Democrat and ally of Sanford, defeats Sanford in a close election.

(7)  Faircloth appears to be a clone of Jesse Helms.  He had a fond dislike for President Clinton, making some politically incorrect comment about Clinton’s family and marriage.  Faircloth was also advancing in age.  John Edwards, a young, eloquent speaker, runs as a moderate as a Democrat and defeats Faircloth in another close election.

(8)  John Edwards has further political ambitions and decides in 2003 not to run for another term.  Richard Burr (R) defeats Erskine Bowles (D) in the general election.

(9)  Richard Burr has served 4 1/2 undistinguished years as a US Senator.  Many North Carolinians have no clue that he is their US Senator.  He’s displayed poor judgment (i.e. telling his wife to withdraw as much money as allowable from the ATM because of the financial crisis).

Is this seat cursed?  Or is it the fact that mitigating circumstances has prevented the incumbent from serving more than one term?