Author: The Caped Composer

Rasmussen (5/22, likely voters, 4/22 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 45 (43)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 47 (50)

(MoE: ±4.5)

That’s a statistical dead heat.  This could be a good sign for us, as many polls lately have showed Franken slipping, in the wake of a tax scandal. The key finding in this new poll is, while the candidates' support among members of their respective parties have remained constant since last month– Coleman has 91% of Republicans, and Franken has 76% of Democrats– independent voters have become more disenchanted with Coleman.  That being said, with 47% of voters viewing Franken as favorable while 49% view him negatively, he has a higher unfavorability rating than Coleman, who breaks even at 49%-49% for favorable/unfavorable ratings.

There will have to be a few more polls before we can determine whether this one indicates a trend in our favor, but it certainly comes as good news that this race isn't completely out of our reach.

A few years ago, when Republicans mentioned the name of Dick Wadhams, a Coloradan protege of Karl Rove, they did so with hushed, awe-struck tones.  It was Wadhams, after all, who guided South Dakota Sen. John Thune to his stinging defeat of Democratic Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle.  He was considered to be Rove's heir-apparent, and thus, in 2006, positioned himself as the top strategist for what was presumed to be an easy re-election race for the GOP's likely 2008 presidential candidate, Virginia Sen. George Allen.  Unlike the tough battle to unseat an incumbent in South Dakota, the Virginia race was supposed to be a cakewalk.  We all know how that turned out– Allen's campaign completely imploded in the wake of his careless use of the word “macaca,” leading to a victory for our candidate, now-Sen. Jim Webb.

A better strategist might have been able to pick up the pieces after “macaca-gate” and get the Allen campaign back on track.  Rove himself was able to do as much with the 2000 Bush campaign, pushing it upright every time its feckless candidate capsized (the incident in which Bush referred to New York Times reporter Adam Clymer as a “major-league asshole” while a microphone was still on, jumps to mind).  Nevertheless, even with this defeat on his resume, Dick Wadhams returned to his native Colorado, to become the state GOP chairman, and to run the campaign for 2008 senate candidate Bob Schaffer, a former congressman.

Because of Wadhams' Colorado roots, the establishment expected him to do much better there than in Virginia.  So far, it's not exactly working; fresh off a scandal involving a Jack Abramoff-funded junket to the Mariana Islands, things were looking bad enough for the Republican candidate.  Now, Team Schaffer has unleashed a new blunder, one that points to ineptitude in the strategy department.

Unlike Wadhams, Bob Schaffer was not born and raised in Colorado; he came to the mountanous state as a young adult, after growing up in Ohio.  As such, Wadhams advised Schaffer to run an ad emphasizing the latter's connetion to the state.  So, the candidate unveiled an ad set against the breathtaking backdrop of a snow-capped mountain, and, in the text of the ad, refers to having proposed to his wife on Pike's Peak, implying that that, the most well-known mountain in Colorado, is the mountain in the background.

The trouble is, it's not Pike's Peak. The stock photo used in the ad turned out to be a picture of Mt. McKinley in Alaska.  While not in the same league as “macaca-gate,” it is certainly a blunder– one that I'm sure is giving Wadhams a headache, as he heads for what may be another major loss on his resume as a strategist.

Frankly, the whole thing comes as a pleasant surprise to me; the conventional wisdom holds that the GOP is the party of message discipline, whose marketing strategies come straight from the world of big business and are, consequently, successful, while the Democrats fumble around and make gaffes all over the place.  The other side has always had its ruthless, amoral Lee Atwaters and Karl Roves, slyly slithering their way to electoral victory while our inept, mealy-mouthed, overly-apologetic strategists like Bob Shrum kept getting re-hired to run the same losing campaign many times over. I'm sure I'm not the only Democrat who gets a satisfying sense of schadenfreude as the GOP runs itself into the ground.

Freshman Congressman Zack Space, who landed in Congress largely due to the corruption scandal surrounding Bob Ney, coupled with the tarnishing of the Republican state party in Ohio, looks to be in surprisingly solid shape for re-election, prompting Congressional Quarterly to change its rating of the race to “Democrat Favored” from “Leans Democratic.” 

In the middle of the 2006 campaign, Ney withdrew from the race due to his Abramoff-related charges, and was replaced by State Sen. Joy Padgett.  Space defeated Padgett by a lopsided margin, a feat that is not likely to repeat this time around.  Nevertheless, Space finds himself in a strong position right now, with a major fundraising advantage over the relatively unknown Fred Dailey.  While the NRCC has certainly not given up on this race, due to the strong conservative leanings of the district, it looks as if we're in good shape to hang onto this one.

It seems that everyone is supporting Don Cazayoux in the contest for Louisiana's sixth congressional district– even the incoming president of the College Republicans at Louisiana State University.  Smoot Carter, a junior at LSU, announced his support for Cazayoux at a news conference last Thursday, prompting Louisiana Federation of College Republicans Chairman Rudy Perciful Jr. to ask Carter to resign.  Republican candidate Woody Jenkins' past includes support for the notorious bigot David Duke, a controversy that appears to have influenced Carter's decision. 

“I decided to support Don Cazayoux, and felt that the 1,600 students I represent in the College Republicans could not stand for anti-Semitism,” Carter said.

Sounds like more good news for our side! 

This just in: the DCCC has announced that congressional challengers Ashwin Madia (MN-03) and Walt Minnick (ID-01) have been added to the Red to Blue program.  Madia, fresh off the official endorsement of the state Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party in Minnesota, is running for the open seat vacated by the retiring Jim Ramstad (R).  Madia is a particularly notable figure because of his humble roots– he grew up in poverty, the son of immigrants from India– and because of his service as a Marine in the Iraq War.  His only Republican opponent at this time is State Rep. Erik Paulsen.

Walt Minnick is a Harvard-educated businessman and an advocate for environmental conservation.  He has a moderate track record in terms of his work for both political parties.  In running against Congressman Bill Sali, Minnick will give residents of the Boise region a chance to be represented by a competent person, rather than a complete nutjob.

So, congrats to both, and bravo to the DCCC– strength in numbers!  Woohoo!

This is off-topic from down-ballot races, but I felt compelled to post; the Democratic presidential primary debate in Philadelphia was an embarrassment. Not to our party, mind you, nor to either of our candidates. Rather, it was an embarrassment for the media, and for the entire profession of journalism. The economy is tanking. The war in Iraq continues on as an endless, unmitigated disaster. Next to no one can afford health care. Yet, what questions did these oh-so-esteemed debate moderators throw at Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama? Questions fed to them by the likes of Sean Hannity about Obama's acquaintanceship with a former 60's radical, who is neither a campaign advisor nor a close friend of the senator's.  Questions about whether Clinton believes Obama can win. Questions about Obama's reluctance to wear a flag pin. A flag pin?!?!?!?!  The Bush administration has our country on the ropes and all these media bobbleheads can talk about is a flag pin!?!?!?!?  It's no wonder winning is such an uphill battle for our party; with such idiocy so rampant, I'm amazed that even half the country votes our way!

All the more reason for us to press onward and win these down-ballot seats, where the media spotlight doesn't linger long enough to turn the proceedings into a complete circus.  Progressivism truly has to start from the ground up; in this info-tainment age, it's the only chance we've got!

The end of the first quarter brings news that bodes well for Democrats in Michigan.  Congressional challengers Mark Schauer (MI-07) and Gary Peters (MI-09), both considered top contenders on the Red-To-Blue list, have ended the quarter with impressive fundraising totals.  

Peters’ campaign reports that it raised over $346,000 for the first quarter, reaching roughly $748,000 total for the cycle.  Furthermore, in sharp contrast to the GOP’s reliance on large-scale wealthy donors and multinational corporations, 90% of Peters’ donations came from within the Wolverine State, and 94% came from individuals.  Nearly 2,000 individual contributors signed on by the end of the quarter, reinforcing the growing power of small donations from individuals via the Internet, a trend that will undoubtedly shape elections going forward.

Schauer’s numbers reflect a similar trend, as his campaign announced that it has raised more than $326,000 in the quarter, and more than $900,000 total to date.  86% of that total came from in-state donors, and, during this quarter, the campaign saw 1,000 new individuals contribute.

Always encouraging to hear news like this, especially from districts in a crucial swing state!

At a pro-war rally in our nation's capitol yesterday, hosted by the right-wing group Vets for Freedom, congressional candidate David Bellavia made a major faux pas in his introductory statements before John McCain took the podium. “Rest assured that people like Senator McCain will be the goal and the men that my two young boys will emulate an admire. You can have your Tiger Woods. We have Senator McCain!” Bellavia bellowed, implicitly referring to Barack Obama, eliciting a chorus of “ooooh”'s from the mostly white crowd.  He later referred to John McCain as “the real audacity of hope.” All hail the mighty Republicans– the party of racial insensitivity!

If this were just some average citizen venting venom and casting condescension, it would not be worthy of notice.  But this guy is running for Congress in the 26th District of New York State.  The fact that the GOP firmly stands behind him as he rattles off this incendiary rhetoric– McCain made no reference to Bellavia's statements in his own speech, which directly followed– shows what a disgusting operation the GOP truly is. 

Unfortunately, the mainstream media has largely ignored the incident– Keith Olbermann commented on it on “Countdown,” and the issue was visited by Chris Matthews on “Hardball,” but it hasn't made headlines in a big way.  Hopefully, it will at least catch the eyes of voters in the Buffalo area, and in neighboring upstate districts.  NY-26 looks to be an easy win for us this year, as Jon Powers is a strong candidate; I just hope this incident at least has a ripple effect in the region, if not the nation.

(Cross-Posted at Senate Guru)

All of us here are optimistic about our prospects in a Democratic year, yet we have repeatedly voiced concern about the precarious nature of some of this year's down-ballot races.  In a Democratic year, why are Oregon and Maine such long-shots?  Why is the picture so unclear in Colorado?  And, more importantly, what can be done to fight the prospect of more Republican victories down-ballot?  Well, I've got an idea, and I know that a handful of others in the blogosphere agree.  I hope it echoes across the Internet and reaches the ears of the top campaign strategists for both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton (I'm hoping for Obama as the nominee)– pick Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer as the VP candidate, and the prospects of Democratic victories brighten all across the country.  Whenever I mention Schweitzer's name, people inevitably respond, “But Montana only has three electoral votes!”  By focusing on electoral math alone, they miss the point; if all we think about is electoral math, we are doomed to a future of precarious, one-vote majorities– nowhere near strong enough to pass progressive legislation and undo the damage of the Bush administration, which will take years.

With that in mind, I say the national ticket needs not one, but two galvanizers who can make campaign stops that whip up the crowds and help the down-ballot candidates.  On that count, Brian Schweitzer is our party's secret weapon.  He is a fantastic orator– second only to Obama himself in the party– and has a proven ability to resonate with Republican and independent voters. He can definitely help us pick up some Rocky Mountain states– with him on the ticket, Colorado is ours, and the coattails of an Obama/Schweitzer ticket would undoubtedly pull Mark Udall over the finish line– and we could pick off Nevada and New Mexico as well.  Oregon would become more solidly blue (improving the chances of Merkley or Novick,) as would Washington State (solidifying Gov. Gregoire's re-election chances).  Furthermore, while I doubt we would win Arizona, we would at least force John McCain to fight us on his home turf, which would cost him time and resources, and give the national GOP a headache (ahh, schadenfreude!)  

“But wait!” you say, “What about those rust-belt states that we need to win?  Hell, what about New Hampshire and Maine?”  To which I say, the aforementioned independent and Republican voters to whom Schweitzer has appealed have been rural and/or working-class citizens who don't want their jobs to be outsourced, are worried about the economy in the wake of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, and disapprove of the way the war is going, but who want to keep their hunting rifles.  You think there aren't voters like that in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania?  Of course there are!  Those are the very voters who swing those states, and Schweitzer is exactly the candidate to persuade them to vote Democratic!  

As for New Hampshire and Maine, Schweitzer's fiercely independent, non-dogmatic persona will resonate quite well with the numerous independent voters who might otherwise consider McCain.  The libertarian streak that runs through the Mountain West is not all that different from good old-fashioned Yankee independence.  Furthermore, Schweitzer took a bold early stand against the Real ID act.  Make some campaign stops with Tom Allen and use that issue as the centerpiece and . . . who knows?  We might just be able to unseat Susan Collins.

For those who don't know much about Schweitzer and might worry that he's some sort of DINO, relax– he is pro-choice, pro-civil union, and VERY pro-environment.  In fact, he has successfully re-framed the environment issue as “conservationism,” not “environmentalism,” and it has worked– people who hunt, fish, and participate in other outdoor activities want to preserve the natural environment in which to do so. Under Schweitzer's stewardship, Montana has been at the forefront of wind energy.

So, if you agree with me on this, I exhort you to spread the word, write blog posts, and even e-mail the Clinton and Obama campaigns.  I figure that, with a concerted effort, we can at least familiarize more people with his name.  Hey, it can't hurt, right?

Ever since Republican Congressman Jim Walsh announced his retirement, the GOP has had a difficult time finding a candidate to run for this district, leaving Democrat Dan Maffei unopposed.  Well, Maffei is still the clear favorite to win in November, but he is not officially unopposed anymore; David Gay, a former organizer for Ron Paul's presidential campaign, has stepped up to the plate.  I have a feeling that the GOP will have trouble getting behind him, though, since he doesn't exactly toe the party line when it comes to intervening in other people's– or other nations'– matters:  

As a true Conservative Republican voter, I will answer this call to action. I will defeat my opponent using no other guide for my campaign than the Declaration of Independence and the United States Constitution. In Congress I will work relentlessly in defense of our rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.  I believe we should eliminate the income tax, stop taxing Social Security pensions, respect private property, secure our national borders, stop government spending with credit we can never afford to repay, and bring our troops home from all over the world immediately.  In Washington, I will fight to keep the government out of our wallets, our bedrooms, our telephone calls, and our daily lives. 

Somehow, I have a feeling that the only Republicans left in the northeast will be those with libertarian views such as those of David Gay.  And even then, the Democrats will handily win.  Here’s to the prospect of a completely blue northeast!