CO-Sen: Schaffer Schadenfreude! (Is Dick Wadhams the GOP Answer to Bob Shrum?)

A few years ago, when Republicans mentioned the name of Dick Wadhams, a Coloradan protege of Karl Rove, they did so with hushed, awe-struck tones.  It was Wadhams, after all, who guided South Dakota Sen. John Thune to his stinging defeat of Democratic Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle.  He was considered to be Rove's heir-apparent, and thus, in 2006, positioned himself as the top strategist for what was presumed to be an easy re-election race for the GOP's likely 2008 presidential candidate, Virginia Sen. George Allen.  Unlike the tough battle to unseat an incumbent in South Dakota, the Virginia race was supposed to be a cakewalk.  We all know how that turned out– Allen's campaign completely imploded in the wake of his careless use of the word “macaca,” leading to a victory for our candidate, now-Sen. Jim Webb.

A better strategist might have been able to pick up the pieces after “macaca-gate” and get the Allen campaign back on track.  Rove himself was able to do as much with the 2000 Bush campaign, pushing it upright every time its feckless candidate capsized (the incident in which Bush referred to New York Times reporter Adam Clymer as a “major-league asshole” while a microphone was still on, jumps to mind).  Nevertheless, even with this defeat on his resume, Dick Wadhams returned to his native Colorado, to become the state GOP chairman, and to run the campaign for 2008 senate candidate Bob Schaffer, a former congressman.

Because of Wadhams' Colorado roots, the establishment expected him to do much better there than in Virginia.  So far, it's not exactly working; fresh off a scandal involving a Jack Abramoff-funded junket to the Mariana Islands, things were looking bad enough for the Republican candidate.  Now, Team Schaffer has unleashed a new blunder, one that points to ineptitude in the strategy department.

Unlike Wadhams, Bob Schaffer was not born and raised in Colorado; he came to the mountanous state as a young adult, after growing up in Ohio.  As such, Wadhams advised Schaffer to run an ad emphasizing the latter's connetion to the state.  So, the candidate unveiled an ad set against the breathtaking backdrop of a snow-capped mountain, and, in the text of the ad, refers to having proposed to his wife on Pike's Peak, implying that that, the most well-known mountain in Colorado, is the mountain in the background.

The trouble is, it's not Pike's Peak. The stock photo used in the ad turned out to be a picture of Mt. McKinley in Alaska.  While not in the same league as “macaca-gate,” it is certainly a blunder– one that I'm sure is giving Wadhams a headache, as he heads for what may be another major loss on his resume as a strategist.

Frankly, the whole thing comes as a pleasant surprise to me; the conventional wisdom holds that the GOP is the party of message discipline, whose marketing strategies come straight from the world of big business and are, consequently, successful, while the Democrats fumble around and make gaffes all over the place.  The other side has always had its ruthless, amoral Lee Atwaters and Karl Roves, slyly slithering their way to electoral victory while our inept, mealy-mouthed, overly-apologetic strategists like Bob Shrum kept getting re-hired to run the same losing campaign many times over. I'm sure I'm not the only Democrat who gets a satisfying sense of schadenfreude as the GOP runs itself into the ground.

2007 & 2008: The Strategy of the White House Office of Political Affairs

Many of you already know the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee’s held a hearing today entitled “Allegations of Misconduct at the General Services Administration.”  One of the allegations explored by the committee was the misuse of GSA funds and resources for political purposes, and the document on which this allegation is based is a Power Point presentation delivered by Karl Rove’s aide Scott Jennings.  The presentation, delivered 26 January 2007, is the official 2007 and 2008 strategy of the White House Office of Political Affairs.  Included therein are graphs and charts pertaining to district PVI, Presidential party performance in midterm elections, overall Presidential party performance during a particular President’s term, House seat statistics, including PVI, party affiliation in recent elections, partisan identification trends, data on the Republicans’ 72 hour program, voter registration data, turnout data, case studies on the success of the 72 hour program and lists of vulnerable House, Senate and gubernatorial seats.  While some of this information is presented in a skewed manner, some of this data is very useful.

Top 20 House Seats Republicans Will Target
order of importance

1 TX-22 (LAMPSON)
2 FL-16 (MAHONEY)
3 CA-11 (McNERNEY)
4 OH-18 (SPACE)
5 IN-09 (HILL)
6 PA-10 (CARNEY)
7 PA-08 (MURPHY)
8 KS-02 (BOYDA)
9 PA-07 (SESTAK)
10 IN-08 (ELLSWORTH)
11 NC-11 (SHULER)
12 TX-23 (RODRIGUEZ)
13 WI-08 (KAGEN)
14 GA-08 (MARSHALL)
15 IN-02 (DONNELLY)
16 GA-12 (BARROW)
17 PA-04 (ALTMIRE)
18 NY-19 (HALL)
19 NY-20 (GILLIBRAND)
20 SD-AL (HERSETH)

HOUSE GOP “PRIORITY DEFENSE”
order of importance
1 PA-06 (GERLACH)
2 FL-13 (BUCHANAN)
3 NC-08 (HAYES)
4 NM-01 (WILSON)
5 CO-04 (MUSGRAVE)
6 IL-06 (ROSKAM)
7 CT-04 (SHAYS)
8 OH-02 (SCHMIDT)
9 VA-02 (DRAKE)
10 WY-AL (CUBIN) – indicates she may retire
11 CA-04 (DOOLITTLE)
12 NV-03 (PORTER)
13 NY-25 (WALSH)
14 OH-15 (PRYCE)
15 NY-29 (KUHL)
16 NJ-07 (FERGUSON)
17 MI-09 (KNOLLENBERG) – indicates he may retire

HOUSE GOP “SECONDARY DEFENSE”
seats are listed in alphabetical order
AK-AL (YOUNG) – indicates he may retire
CA-24 (GALLEGLY) – indicates he may retire
CA-25 (McKEON) – indicates he may retire
CA-41 (LEWIS) – indicates he may retire
CA-42 (MILLER)
CA-52 (HUNTER) – indicates he may retire
DE-AL (CASTLE) – indicates he may retire
FL-10 (YOUNG) – indicates he may retire
IL-10 (KIRK)
IL-14 (HASTERT) – indicates he may retire
KY-02 (LEWIS)
LA-01 (JINDAL) – indicates he may retire
MD-06 (BARTLETT) – indicates he may retire
MI-03 (EHLERS) – indicates he may retire
MI-07 (WALBERG)
NC-09 (MYRICK) – indicates she may retire
OH-16 (REGULA) – indicates he may retire
PA-15 (DENT)
VA-11 (DAVIS) – indicates he may retire

GOP SENATE OFFENSE
in no particular order, as a map illustrates the strategy
MT-SEN (BAUCUS)
SD-SEN (JOHNSON)
IA-SEN (HARKIN)
AR-SEN (PRYOR)
LA-SEN (LANDRIEU)
NJ-SEN (LAUTENBERG)

GOP SENATE DEFENSE
in no particular order, as map illustrates the strategy
OR-SEN (SMITH)
CO-SEN (OPEN)
NM-SEN (DOMENICI)
MN-SEN (COLEMAN)
MS-SEN (COCHRAN)
ME-SEN (COLLINS)
NH-SEN (SUNUNU)
VA-SEN (WARNER)

Alaska, Wyoming, Idaho, Texas, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Illinois, Michigan, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Delaware, Rhode Island and Massachusetts are considered noncompetitive

GOP OFFENSE – GUBERNATORIAL RACES
in no particular order, as strategy is illustrated with a map
WA-GOV (GREGOIRE)
MT-GOV (SCHWEITZER)
NC-GOV (OPEN)
LA-GOV (BLANCO) – they note this is a 2007 race

GOP DENFENSE – GUBERNATORIAL RACES
in no particular order, as strategy is illustrated with a map
MO-GOV (BLUNT)
IN-GOV (DANIELS)
VT-GOV (DOUGLAS)
MS-GOV (BARBOUR) – they note this is a 2007 race
KY-GOV (FLETCHER) – they note this is a 2007 race

Utah, North Dakota, West Virginia, Delaware and New Hampshire are not considered competitive

Although some of this information is dated, I do find it very useful.  How do you view this document?

Karl Rove’s Take on the 2008 Senate Races (and Thad Cochran)

(Does Karl Rove have “the math” once again, or is this for real? – promoted by DavidNYC)

[Cross-posted at my blog, Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

Hearings were held on allegations of General Services Administration (GSA) misconduct, specifically using GSA staff, time, and resources for Republican partisan political purposes. Think Progress has more and YouTube has clips from the hearing.

Included in the hearing was a PowerPoint presentation from the White House Office of Political Affairs (i.e. Karl Rove’s desk), and one of the slides was titled “Battle for the Senate 2008.” States were broken down as “Republican Offense,” which includes six states, “Republican Defense,” which includes 8 states, and “Not Competitive,” which includes 19 states (though the math wizards in Rove’s office listed it on the slide as “21 states”).

The six states listed under “Republican Offense” are Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota. No huge shocks.

The eight states listed under “Republican Defense” are Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon, and Virginia. Mississippi?!?! Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Oregon are the obvious top five Republican vulnerabilities. And Virginia and New Mexico are both purple states with possible retirees (even before the Domenici phone call scandal).

But Mississippi?!?! The only Democrat to make Mississippi competitive, at least in a top-tier (i.e. more competitive than, say, North Carolina or Kentucky, which are both listed under “Not Competitive”) sense, is former state Attorney General Mike Moore. And it is believed that Moore will only step up if incumbent Republican Thad Cochran retires.

So, does Rove have inside info that Thad Cochran is planning on retiring, after all? Certainly provokes curiosity. The Guru will keep an ear toward these developments as they unfold.