As you can imagine, I am stunned.
Two potential candidates now are former US Rep. Chris John and Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu.
I apologize for the brevity of the diary, but I desire to read online reaction to Foti’s decision. Here are two sources:
ryan at Daily Kingfish also has an analysis:
Breaux will make his decision in a couple of days.
We shall wait some more.
Crossposted at Daily Kingfish, a Louisiana politics blog by and for Louisiana Democrats
Even though the full results have been made available to the media, the Louisiana GOP refuses to read and to acknowledge a Verne Kennedy poll commissioned by John Georges, Republican candidate for Governor from Metairie. The poll of 600 Louisianans conducted 29 March through 3 April yielded some interesting results. According to the Shreveport Times,
When the poll concentrated only on Jindal, Breaux and Georges, the responses to the question about which candidate the respondent would chose if the election were today were 39 percent for Jindal, 30 percent for Breaux and 14 percent for Georges, with 17 percent uncertain.
And they continue,
In the trial heat between Jindal and Breaux, 49 percent chose Jindal and 36 percent Breaux, with 15 percent undecided.
Jindal and the Louisiana GOP thought Jindal would coast to the Governor’s mansion in October. Jindal has been campaigning throughout the state for months, including making appearances and offering “testimony” in Baptist churches, and the Louisiana GOP daily demonizes every candidate who has announced an intention to run, whether it be Walter Boasso (R-Arabi), John Breaux (D-Crowley) or John Georges, who Roger Villere, Chairman of the Louisiana GOP, calls an “opponent.” Given all this effort on behalf of Jindal by the Louisiana GOP, one would expect Jindal to be a prohibitive favorite, not a mere favorite, especially since Jindal has been behaving as if he is the heir apparent since Blanco announced her intention to not run for reelection. 49%, in other words, is a weak number for someone who is treated as an incumbent both by the media and by his political party.
The following should also serve as a source of aggravation for an already splenetic Louisiana GOP, especially as Breaux, Campbell, Boasso and Georges are yet to engage in full campaigning:
In a trial heat for governor, when voters were read a list of all possible candidates for governor, the preferences were 39 percent for Jindal, 23 percent for Breaux, 10 percent for Georges, 5 percent for Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu, 4 percent for state Treasurer John Kennedy, 2 percent for Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell and 1 percent each for state Sen. Walter Boasso and former Attorney General Richard Ieyoub.
Perhaps 39 percent is the highest Jindal can earn with the present field of candidates in the jungle primary. Yes, Mitch Landrieu, Richard Ieyoub and John Kennedy have not announced and will not announce, but I doubt supporters of John Kennedy and especially Mitch Landrieu and Richard Ieyoub will cast their votes for Jindal. And I imagine Foster Campbell, Walter Boasso, John Georges and John Breaux will expand their bases once they launch their respective campaigns. After all, Breaux has not officially announced, and John Georges, who hails fom Jinda’s Congressional district, will, according to politicsla.com, which requires a subscription,
emphasize his similarities on economic and social issues with Republican frontrunner Congressman Bobby Jindal before drawing distinctions in background and ability. “In July, people will look at that and say, ‘He’s just like Bobby.’ Then we will differentiate,” he said.
For instance: “The difference between Bobby and me is I am a decision maker while he is a policy maker,” he said. “Jindal suffers from the same problem Kathleen Blanco does. He waits to see which way the wind is blowing.”
Boasso will chip away at Jindal’s Republican base from the other end, the end of the reformer, the populist. Here is Boasso’s message:
“It’s the same old people trying to control things,” he said. “They put it out into the public that it was a big consensus. That’s misleading.
“The days when these small groups of insiders determine our future has got to come to an end.”
And Boasso and Georges, both millionaires, will have the money to communicate their respective messages.
Jindal will not have much room to manoeuvre once Boasso and Georges introduce themselves to the public. Moreover, Foster Campbell (D-Bossier City), former state Senator and current Public Service Commissioner for north Louisiana, will mobilize northern Louisianans and others disenchanted with utility companies and oil interests. And complicating this is the base Breaux already has despite the Louisiana GOPs coordinated smear campaign, which includes letters to the editors of The Shreveport Times and The Ouchita Citizen, biased journalism by sympathetic reports, a website and a redundant television ad airing throughout the state of Louisiana.
Piyush “Bobby” may have to accept the 39% of Verne Kennedy’s poll, which probably explains why Roger Villere is now telling reporters he wants to abolish the jungle primary for state races. If you cannot force everyone out of the field in the name of a Jindal victory, then I guess the only option left is to change the election process. Why do Jindal and Villere have such contempt for Louisiana voters and for Louisiana election law?
Many of you already know the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee’s held a hearing today entitled “Allegations of Misconduct at the General Services Administration.” One of the allegations explored by the committee was the misuse of GSA funds and resources for political purposes, and the document on which this allegation is based is a Power Point presentation delivered by Karl Rove’s aide Scott Jennings. The presentation, delivered 26 January 2007, is the official 2007 and 2008 strategy of the White House Office of Political Affairs. Included therein are graphs and charts pertaining to district PVI, Presidential party performance in midterm elections, overall Presidential party performance during a particular President’s term, House seat statistics, including PVI, party affiliation in recent elections, partisan identification trends, data on the Republicans’ 72 hour program, voter registration data, turnout data, case studies on the success of the 72 hour program and lists of vulnerable House, Senate and gubernatorial seats. While some of this information is presented in a skewed manner, some of this data is very useful.
Top 20 House Seats Republicans Will Target
order of importance
1 TX-22 (LAMPSON)
2 FL-16 (MAHONEY)
3 CA-11 (McNERNEY)
4 OH-18 (SPACE)
5 IN-09 (HILL)
6 PA-10 (CARNEY)
7 PA-08 (MURPHY)
8 KS-02 (BOYDA)
9 PA-07 (SESTAK)
10 IN-08 (ELLSWORTH)
11 NC-11 (SHULER)
12 TX-23 (RODRIGUEZ)
13 WI-08 (KAGEN)
14 GA-08 (MARSHALL)
15 IN-02 (DONNELLY)
16 GA-12 (BARROW)
17 PA-04 (ALTMIRE)
18 NY-19 (HALL)
19 NY-20 (GILLIBRAND)
20 SD-AL (HERSETH)
HOUSE GOP “PRIORITY DEFENSE”
order of importance
1 PA-06 (GERLACH)
2 FL-13 (BUCHANAN)
3 NC-08 (HAYES)
4 NM-01 (WILSON)
5 CO-04 (MUSGRAVE)
6 IL-06 (ROSKAM)
7 CT-04 (SHAYS)
8 OH-02 (SCHMIDT)
9 VA-02 (DRAKE)
10 WY-AL (CUBIN) – indicates she may retire
11 CA-04 (DOOLITTLE)
12 NV-03 (PORTER)
13 NY-25 (WALSH)
14 OH-15 (PRYCE)
15 NY-29 (KUHL)
16 NJ-07 (FERGUSON)
17 MI-09 (KNOLLENBERG) – indicates he may retire
HOUSE GOP “SECONDARY DEFENSE”
seats are listed in alphabetical order
AK-AL (YOUNG) – indicates he may retire
CA-24 (GALLEGLY) – indicates he may retire
CA-25 (McKEON) – indicates he may retire
CA-41 (LEWIS) – indicates he may retire
CA-42 (MILLER)
CA-52 (HUNTER) – indicates he may retire
DE-AL (CASTLE) – indicates he may retire
FL-10 (YOUNG) – indicates he may retire
IL-10 (KIRK)
IL-14 (HASTERT) – indicates he may retire
KY-02 (LEWIS)
LA-01 (JINDAL) – indicates he may retire
MD-06 (BARTLETT) – indicates he may retire
MI-03 (EHLERS) – indicates he may retire
MI-07 (WALBERG)
NC-09 (MYRICK) – indicates she may retire
OH-16 (REGULA) – indicates he may retire
PA-15 (DENT)
VA-11 (DAVIS) – indicates he may retire
GOP SENATE OFFENSE
in no particular order, as a map illustrates the strategy
MT-SEN (BAUCUS)
SD-SEN (JOHNSON)
IA-SEN (HARKIN)
AR-SEN (PRYOR)
LA-SEN (LANDRIEU)
NJ-SEN (LAUTENBERG)
GOP SENATE DEFENSE
in no particular order, as map illustrates the strategy
OR-SEN (SMITH)
CO-SEN (OPEN)
NM-SEN (DOMENICI)
MN-SEN (COLEMAN)
MS-SEN (COCHRAN)
ME-SEN (COLLINS)
NH-SEN (SUNUNU)
VA-SEN (WARNER)
Alaska, Wyoming, Idaho, Texas, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Illinois, Michigan, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Delaware, Rhode Island and Massachusetts are considered noncompetitive
GOP OFFENSE – GUBERNATORIAL RACES
in no particular order, as strategy is illustrated with a map
WA-GOV (GREGOIRE)
MT-GOV (SCHWEITZER)
NC-GOV (OPEN)
LA-GOV (BLANCO) – they note this is a 2007 race
GOP DENFENSE – GUBERNATORIAL RACES
in no particular order, as strategy is illustrated with a map
MO-GOV (BLUNT)
IN-GOV (DANIELS)
VT-GOV (DOUGLAS)
MS-GOV (BARBOUR) – they note this is a 2007 race
KY-GOV (FLETCHER) – they note this is a 2007 race
Utah, North Dakota, West Virginia, Delaware and New Hampshire are not considered competitive
Although some of this information is dated, I do find it very useful. How do you view this document?
Although I only post comments at this site, I want to alert everyone here of a guest blogging opportunity at JindalIsBad.com. Because Markos linked to the site at DailyKos, the site is now the fifth entry on the Google websearch page for Bobby Jindal. This is an excellent opportunity for anyone who wants experience in front page blogging and focused opposition research.
Write jindalisbad(@)gmail.com if you desire to disseminate information on Bobby Jindal’s problematic record and serve as an expert on one of the most heated gubernatorial battles during the 2007 election cycle. This is also a great opportunity for a young blogger or a blogger from Louisiana to create a name and a reputation for him or herself in the progressive blogosphere.
Everyone here should be aware of the following advertisments on YouTube smearing John Breaux. He has not yet annouced, but the Louisiana Republicans are already prepared to bombard Louisiana citizens with falsehoods and distortions.
Here are the You Tube videos:
This is full of falsehoods. Has anyone ever heard of the Breaux Act, an act that secures millions of dollars every year for coastal restoration and wetland protection projects? And what of David Vitter’s citation of Breaux’s healthcare plan in his proposal to transform the Charity Hospital system of LSU? I can go on and on.
This is just vacuous. And since when is Jindal, who took money from DeLay, Abramoff and former Rep. now lobbyist Livingston?
Jindal used these quotes in 2003, and he still lost to Blanco.
Republican Party of Louisiana video on television:
By the way, Jindal moved from Baton Rouge to Kenner in order to run for Vitter’s former House seat, LA-01. Jindal is the carpetbagger, not John Breaux.
I hope this helps. And let us use the comments to invalidate these claims and to perform opposition research on Piyush “Bobby” Jindal.
John Breaux may run, even if Blanco decides to remain in the race. Visit this website for more details, especially if you want Breaux to run:
The Louisiana Democratic Party now has an account with ActBlue for their state legislative races. Visit their fundraising page at this website:
Bobby Jindal, who plans to run for Governor in 2007, is ranked 432 out of 435 in terms of effectiveness in Congress. Visit this website for more details:
Progressive reformer and grassroots activist Deborah Langhoff, who missed the runoff in the special election on 10 March by 89 votes, plans to run for LA-HD 94 this November. Here is an excerpt from New Orleans City Business:
LCRM race role
In the March 10 legislative election in District 94, four pieces of mail attacking leading Democratic candidate Deborah Langhoff arrived the day before Election Day.
The mail was produced by the Louisiana Committee for a Republican Majority, a new organization dedicated to electing a Republican majority in the Louisiana Legislature this fall. LCRM is heavily funded by GOP donors Boysie Bollinger and Joe Canizaro and supported by Sen. David Vitter, R-Metairie.
The mailers “exposed” Langhoff’s liberalism and quoted her as saying “I loathe Bobby Jindal.” Langhoff said the “hit pieces” hurt her vote total and kept her out of the runoff. For that reason, Langhoff will not endorse marketing representative Jeb Bruneau nor attorney Nick Lorusso, the two Republican runoff candidates. She plans to run in the fall against whoever wins the general election March 31.
UPDATE: BLANCO OUT
WWL TV New Orleans writes the following:
Governor Kathleen Blanco has requested television time tonight for a gubernatorial address that will be carried live on Eyewitness News at 6 p.m.. Sources tell Eyewitness News that Blanco will announce she is not seeking re-election.
The DCCC has posted this article from Roll Call entitled “Louisiana Lightning.” I recommend everyone read it in its entirety, as the article discusses Republican and Democratic strategy for 2007 and 2008. Here are some of the more interesting passages from the article:
Democratic officials believe that demographic changes in one of the South’s few remaining competitive states – for instance, many former New Orleans residents now live in Baton Rouge and Shreveport – could put Rep. Richard Baker’s (R-La.) seat within their reach.
“Baker is definitely on our radar screen,” DCCC spokesman Doug Thornell said. “We believe whether Baker runs for governor, Senate or seeks re-election, we believe he’s vulnerable.”
Baker’s 6th district is based in Baton Rouge, which swelled from 225,000 residents before Hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit in 2005 to somewhere between 275,000 and 325,000 today, according to local officials.
The DCCC also is casting a glance at Rep. Jim McCrery (R) in the 4th district.Neither district seems like particularly fertile ground for Democrats on paper – President Bush carried both districts with 59 percent of the 2004 presidential vote – but a lot has changed since then.
Shreveport just elected a black Democratic mayor in November, Democrats are quick to note.
McCrery represents a big chunk of the Pelican State’s western side in a district that extends from Northern Shreveport almost to Lake Charles.
Former Rep. Chris John (D-La.), who lost a 2004 bid for Senate, said he thinks Democrats can not only rebound but can even make gains in his home state.
“The DCCC has hit the ground running,” John said. “I was called [for advice] five weeks after the [midterm] election by the DCCC recruitment committee.”
John said committee officials are “just trying to get a real lay of the land … just trying to get a real macro-picture with what they’re dealing with.”
He also said that Rep. Rodney Alexander (R) always has to consider himself a target given that he switched parties just before the state’s filing deadline in 2004.
Who should we recruit for LA-04, LA-05, LA-06, LA-07? Which elected officials in Louisiana do you believe have the capacity to unseat one of these incumbents? Which prominent people in Louisiana do you believe should run? I have a few in mind, and I will post them in the comments. I look forward to everyone else’s suggestions.
I thought I should share this link with everyone here. Please advise.
And again, here is the link. Scroll to the bottom of the link to see scanned copies of the campaign literature wherein I was misquoted and therefore misrepresented. There is more than what I post here.
I know this diary is short, but I want everyone’s opinion.
And no, I am not affiliated with Deborah Langhoff’s campaign or with any politician for that matter. I am just an engaged and concerned citizen who wants to see my state rebuilt.
(I’m working on what seems to be shaping up to become an all-nighter of a research paper, so please use this thread to discuss the latest goings-on in Louisiana. I’m heartened to hear that Breaux’s legal team believes that “citizenship” isn’t much of an obstacle–and indeed, “citizen” as a legal term is a much broader requirement than “resident”. – promoted by James L.)
1. John Breaux Is A Citizen
Breaux said there’s no question that he meets the state Constitution’s requirement of being a “citizen” of Louisiana for the past five years, even though he changed his voter registration to Maryland in 2005.
“I don’t just own two lots in Crowley. It is my family home. When my mama died, I inherited half of it. My dad lives there. We pay taxes on it. My wife, Lois, owns property in Louisiana,” Breaux said. “I never revoked my citizenship in Louisiana.”
Lawyers have looked at the constitutional requirement and determined he meets the citizenship requirement, Breaux said.
Breaux will announce in the “very near future,” or after he has a discussion with Blanco. Foster Campell will still run, and Jindal’s supporters have hijacked the comments thread attached to the article. But this is my favorite comment:
But his citizenship is not the issue, he said.
“The issues are health care, education and rebuilding. That’s what it is all about,” Breaux said.
2. Mary Landrieu Is Above 50%
GOP Sets Sights on Landrieu
The National Republican Senatorial Committee released a poll yesterday aimed at demonstrating the vulnerability of Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) in her 2008 reelection bid.
Fifty-one percent of the sample said they would vote to reelect Landrieu and 42 percent said they would consider someone new — a sign, according to pollster Glen Bolger, that Landrieu is a “vulnerable Democratic incumbent.”
Although Bolger writes that “when voters are given a choice between Landrieu and a Republican they know, they invariably choose the Republican,” the poll memo includes data for only one statewide head-to-head matchup: Rep. Bobby Jindal (R-La.), who is running for governor this year, led Landrieu by 55 percent to 39 percent. No matchup between Landrieu and Rep. Richard H. Baker (La.) — the Republicans’ preferred candidate — is mentioned in the memo.
Landrieu won her seat in 1996 by 5,788 votes and was reelected in 2002 with 52 percent of the vote.
One problem to consider is the NRSC’s decision to poll Landrieu against Jindal, especially as Breaux is still considering a gubernatorial bid. Another is the inherent bias of this Republican poll: Is Landrieu more popular than the results claim? And would Jindal really have a chance if Breaux defeats him in 2007? And lastly, is Landrieu as vulnerable as the RSCC claims when over 50% of Louisianans want her reelected?
Race Tracker: LA-Sen
Tonight is the night of the special open primary for the seat Peppi Bruneau, a Republican, vacated before his term expires in November. Polls closed at 8pm CST. Let us hope Deborah Langhoff qualifies for the runoff.
Open primary results can be found here.
The ballot appears as follows:
State Representative, 94th Representative District
0 of 53 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
0 0% Philip C. Brickman, R –
0 0% “Jeb” Bruneau, R –
0 0% John M. Holahan, Jr., D –
0 0% Deborah J. Langhoff, D –
0 0% Nicholas J. “Nick” Lorusso, R –
0 0% William “Bill” Vanderwall, Sr., D –