Author: louisianagirl

Polls will open on Saturday for the special open primary for LA-HD94, and the ballot is set.  Here is how the ballot will appear on Saturday:

State Representative, 94th Representative District
0 of 53 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
0  0% Philip C. Brickman, R –
0  0% “Jeb” Bruneau, R –
0  0% John M. Holahan, Jr., D –
0  0% Deborah J. Langhoff, D –
0  0% Nicholas J. “Nick” Lorusso, R –
0  0% William “Bill” Vanderwall, Sr., D –

Deborah Langhoff, the grassroots Democrat who is running on a compelling message of government reform, has been running an aggressive campaign as evidenced by this mailer, one directed at her most redoubtable opponent, Jeb Bruneau:

Such mailers are designed to keep Bruneau on the defensive, and it appears to be working, as Peppi, Jeb’s father, the Republican who abandoned this seat before the last legislative session of his 32 year term in order to bequeath it to his son in a rushed special election, must now answer the uncomfortable questions of constituents and reporters.  Langhoff effectively shaped the main theme of this race, and everyone, including the Bruneaus, both père and fils, must react to her claims and to her message.  These quotes from a Times Picayune article demonstrate the success of Langhoff’s media campaign:

Peppi Bruneau (R)

On the campaign trail, Bruneau’s resignation is being portrayed as a “political handoff.” Peppi Bruneau, however, says the sniping is only rhetoric.

“I have always said I didn’t intend to be term-limited,” he said. “I didn’t want to do that. It was like being a lame duck, and I didn’t want to be a lame duck.”

In a response to a constituent who questioned his motives, Bruneau wrote that the winner of the special election stands to gain instant seniority over the 50-plus new House members who will be elected in the fall.

“I think that this will provide an advantage for our area, and that is why I have resigned,” he wrote. “I do not find this to be an awkward moment.”

But Peppi Bruneau scoffs at any notion that anything nefarious is afoot.

“How can you sneak something through when there are five opponents?” he asked. “I’d say interest is pretty high in this race.”

Deborah Langhoff (D)

“I’m not saying they did anything illegal, but they definitely manipulated the process,” Langhoff said.

Nick Lorusso (R)

Lorusso said Bruneau — who will step down on April 30, the first day of the regular legislative session — abandoned the devastated district for his final term of office to bolster his son’s chances of election.

“It’s outrageous,” said Lorusso, echoing the feelings of most of the other candidates. “When this district needs Peppi Bruneau the most, we won’t have him.”

Jeb Bruneau (R)

For his part, Jeb Bruneau says his father did not urge him to run for a position he feels he is prepared to hold, having served nearly two years as president of the Lakeview Civic Association and having helped to coordinate the ongoing recovery of his neighborhood.

“If you want to be upset with Peppi, be upset with Peppi,” he said. “But judge Jeb on Jeb.

“This was not my idea. I understand what it means to be part of a political family. Let’s face it, my decision to run would have been an issue in the fall, too.”

Philip Brickman (R)

For example, on his Web site, Brickman refers readers to a newspaper article on what he calls “our district’s last-minute special election.”

The cost of holding an election on that day was anticipated when lawmakers adopted the state budget last year, Peppi Bruneau said. Whatever the cost, Brickman said, “it is a waste of taxpayer money.”

John Holahan (D)

And as part of his platform, Holahan is pledging to introduce legislation to eliminate special elections when legislators resign with less than a year left in a term. Instead of incurring the expense of an election, Holahan’s proposal calls for the House leadership to fill the vacancy on an interim basis with the appointee barred from running for the job.

Langhoff shaped the terms of this election, and she has the heir apparent cornered.  As the Times Picayune reports, “While crime, education and the slow pace of the hurricane recovery are integral parts of the campaign debate, references to the incumbent’s resignation are inescapable.”

Although Deborah has effectively defined this election, she still trails in fundraising.  According to the Times Picayune,

State campaign finance reports that cover activity through Feb. 28 show that Jeb Bruneau had raised about $85,000, significantly more than any of his opponents.

Raising the next-highest total was Langhoff, with about $15,000, followed by Brickman with $5,500 and Holahan with $4,500. No fundraising was reported by either Lorusso or Vanderwall.

For a grassroots candidate with no support from the Democratic establishment, Langhoff is performing really well.  If she qualifies for the runoff, I imagine Louisiana Democrats will be forced to support her campaign.  More egregious, however, is the lack of support Langhoff is receiving from local Democrats, particularly City Councilwoman Cynthia Hedge-Morrell, state Sen. Ed Murray and state Rep. J.P. Morrell, who are all inexplicably endorsing Republican Jeb Bruneau. These three elected officials should reconsider their endorsements,especially as Democrats may lose their majorities in the state House and Senate.

But Deborah has secured the endorsements of the AFL-CIO and the New Orleans Coalition, a Hurricane Katrina relief organization.  And even though Jeb Bruneau managed to secure the endorsement of establishment Democrats in New Orleans, he failed to capture the endorsement of the Alliance for Good Government, of which Jeb is a member.  That endorsement went to Republican Nick Larusso.

Because this race is not yet over, I ask you to contribute to Langhoff’s campaign.  Not only has she managed to shape the terms of this election on very limited funds; she has a real chance of qualifying for the runoff.  Early support will catapult her ahead of her presumptive runoff opponent Jeb Bruneau for this crucial Louisiana House seat.  Also visit her website, where one can view her videos.  This candidate understands the issues facing her district, and she will recreate and reactivate the Louisiana Democratic Party from within.  Let us back Deborah Langhoff.

 

The following is a diary Mike Stagg, who ran for the House in LA-07 last November, posted at MyDD on Friday, only to have it pushed aside by all the Presidential diaries.  After we lost one LA State House seat last weekend, I believe we should try to support Langhoff, whether it be through volunteering, contributing or blogging.  Here is Mike’s dairy, and I will try to write more at another time.  Although Mike works with the Langhoff campaign, I do not; I just support her candidacy. 

Deborah Langhoff, you may recall from my other diaries, is a Democrat running for a seat recently vacated by a Republican.  Because Republicans plan on sweeping all statewide and legislative offices this year, we really need to win this seat.  Langhoff’s main Republican opponent in the open primary is Jeb Bruneau, the son of Republican Peppi Bruneau, who evacuated this seat on short notice in order to create a short special election cycle to the benefit of his son.  Langhoff is a grassroots organizer who has the chance to win this seat, and I ask everyone to support her and her really promising campaign.

Anyone interested in seeing the Republican game plan for 2007 unveiled should keep their eye on the special election in House District 94 where Democrat Deborah Langhoff has emerged as a threat to win the seat.

Langhoff, who has won endorsements from the Greater New Orleans AFL-CIO and the New Orleans Coalition, has been warned in recent days that she is about to become the subject of a smear campaign. How did she learn of this? From Republicans (including at least one candidate) who wanted her to know that they “had nothing to do” with what is, allegedly about to happen.

Element One of the 2007 GOP Game Plan: Crank Up the Slime Machine! No doubt money from the Louisiana Committee for a Republican Majority is not far removed from this effort.

Then, today, Jeb Bruneau — the designated heir apparent for whose benefit this special election was engineered (thanks to his daddy’s resignation from the seat) rolled out a mailer touting an endorsement from the leading Republican candidate for governor — Bobby Jindal. Poor Jeb! Bobby’s probably telling him how to run his campaign now! 😉

The mailer looks more like a Jindal piece than a Bruneau piece. No 
doubt Jindal approved it.

Element Two of the 2007 GOP Game Plan: Create an air of inevitability. This, actually, is out of the Karl Rove playbook. Work the media, tout your internal poll numbers (that you won’t let anyone see) or the numbers of a friendly pollster who will skew things your way. Try to depress voter turnout among Democrats by creating a defeatist attitude.

But, the Langhoff campaign is going to unveil a Democratic template of its own. It’s called Fighting Back!

If/when the smear comes, Deborah and her team will come out fighting, slamming the Republican slime machine, calling them out on their cynicism, their reliance on manipulation of process and people in a deceitful effort to retain/gain power at all costs.

Deborah needs your help NOW! There are nine days until the primary. 

The wheels are coming off the Bruneau campaign. The Alliance for Good Government, of which Jeb Bruneau is a member, endorsed another candidate. Deborah’s direct mail campaign has slammed the blatant manipulation of the election process by Peppi Bruneau with the intent of benefitting Jeb — and people are responding. Why are they responding? Because they recognize the attempted manipulation and Deborah has had the courage to call the Bruneaus on it.

As you know, Republicans have targeted at least 37 House seats currently held by Democrats for Republican takeover this fall. They don’t believe they have a single vulnerable seat.

Democrats have a chance to take that seat through Deborah Langhoff’s inspiring campaign.

We can knock their alleged juggernaut off the tracks before it even gets rolling — IF YOU WILL HELP DEBORAH’S CAMPAIGN!!!

Go here: Deborah Langhoff’s website

Make a contribution — even if you don’t live in the district. If you live in or near the district, make a contribution and get involved directly in the campaign. Volunteer to phone bank or walk neighborhoods.

Republicans have big plans for Louisiana that start in 2008. As John Lennon said: “Life is what happens while you’re busy making plans.” Victories are won that way, too. We can upset those GOP plans by working together in 2007.

Help Deborah Langhoff resist the Swiftboating of her campaign! It’s a preview of what Democrats across this state are going to face this fall.

Help fight it NOW!!!

Special open primaries for the remainder of the terms to end in November for LA-HD1, LA-HD4 and LA-HD40 have been held today.  Polls close at 8pm CST in Louisiana, and returns should be available immediately thereafter.

Here is how the ballot appears for all three races:

State Representative, 1st Representative District
0 of 31 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
0  0% Michael Page Boyter, R –
0  0% Richard “Richie” Hollier, D –
0  0% Ruth W. Johnston, D –
0  0% “Jim” Morris, R –
0  0% Marc Weddleton, R –

State Representative, 4th Representative District
0 of 26 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
0  0% Larry Ferdinand, D –
0  0% Reginald Johnson, D –
0  0% Calvin “Ben” Lester, Jr., D –
0  0% Patrick C. Williams, D –

State Representative, 40th Representative District
0 of 43 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
0  0% “Jim” Darby, D –
0  0% “Chris” Declouette, D –
0  0% Elbert Lee Guillory, D –
0  0% “Bradford” Jackson, N –
0  0% Roderick “Rod” James, D –
0  0% Ledricka Johnson, D –

LA-HD4 and LA-HD40 are seats guaranteed for Louisiana Democrats.  LA-HD4 is centered around Shreveport, and it extends into some of the more rural portions of Caddo Parish.  A district with an African-American majority, LA-HD4 was previously held by Cedric Glover, who is now the first African-American Mayor of Shreveport.  Larry Ferdinand and Patrick Williams, who received the endorsement of the Shreveport Times, the major local newspaper, are considered the favorites in this race, and I imagine they will face each other in a runoff.  Whoever wins LA-HD4 will hold this seat in November, as Democrats outnumber Republicans in this district by very high numbers.

LA-HD40 is also guaranteed for the Democrats.  This seat, centered around Opelousas in St. Landry Parish, was previously held by Don Cravins, Jr., who ran for and won the Louisiana Senate seat vacated by his father, Don Cravins, Sr., who is now Mayor of Opelousas.  This district is both an African-American and Democratic majority district, and whoever wins it will most probably hold it in November.  The Daily World, the major local newspaper, chose not to endorse any of the six candidates.  Turnout for this election is approximately 16%, and reporters are anticipating a runoff between two of the six candidates.

LA-HD1, however, is not guaranteed for the Democrats.  Although it was previously held by a Democrat named Roy “Hoppy” Hopkins, who recently died of cancer, this open seat can be won by either party.  Indeed, the district has a tendency to vote for Republicans in federal races: John Kerry only received 32.28% of the vote in 2004; Kathleen Blanco received 44.15% of the vote in 2003; and Mary Landrieu received approximately 45.34% of the vote in 2002.  A populist Democrat who understand agricultural and infrastructural issues can win in this district that includes rural Caddo and Bossier Parishes, but it will be a difficult seat for Democrats to hold in November. 

Richie Hollier, a Democrat who is running for office for the first time, has a strong grasp of the issues facing this district, and he has traveled throughout the district in order to hear its constituents’ needs.  Ruth Johnston, an Oil City resident who has served as Justice for the Peace, an elected office, for 18 years, is a former restaurant owner who desires to make government and the legislative process more accessible to the residents of the first district.  Both of these Democrats will face stiff competition from “Jim” Morris, a Caddo Parish Commissioner, who has received key endorsements from other Republicans in the district as well as the endorsement of the Shreveport Times, the major local newspaper.  Morris believes problems with Louisiana’s public school system will be solved with the introduction of prayer into the classroom, which leads me to wonder how an editorial board can endorse his candidacy in the open primary.  The other Republicans are not considered viable: Marc Weddleton just moved to the area two years ago, and Boyter is a regular gadfly whose platform is marijuana rights.

Turnout for LA-HD1 has been very low: only 100 ballots were cast during the early voting period in all of Caddo Parish, which also includes the race for the open seat of LA-HD4.  Moreover, Caddo and neighboring DeSoto Parish have been under a tornado watch all afternoon.  And while one would believe this would depress turnout, some claim it may increase it in some areas.  But turnout overall has varied from 2% to 16%.

LA-HD1 is what I consider to be a bellwether race.  If we hold it, we will hold the Louisiana House in November.  If we lose it, then we need to prepare ourselves for the fight of our political lives in November.  Watch the returns of this race, as this race will determine how hard Louisiana Democrats will have to fight if they want to hold on to their majorities in the state legislature.  And if we lose LA-HD1, then capturing LA-HD94, the special election for which will be held on 10 March, will be mandatory.  That can be done by supporting Deborah Langhoff.

The returns should be available at 8:30pm CST.

(The importance of holding on to what we can in Louisiana is critical. This will be a make-or-break year for Louisiana Democrats. Are we ready? – promoted by James L.)

Having had penned multiple diaries on Louisiana politics and the plight of the Democratic party in my state here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here, I am elated Thomas F. Schaller of Whistling Past Dixie fame has written this 20 FEB 2007 article for Salon.com on the GOP’s planned 2007 sweep of Louisiana.  The situation is grim, and the graphic accompanying his article, a blue Louisiana in the process of being delaminated into a red Louisiana, aptly summarizes the state of affairs in my state.

Here are some of the key passages from Schaller’s article, key passages I hope will compel my readers to begin participating in the mobilization project on behalf of Louisiana Democrats I am trying to enact here and elsewhere in the blogosphere:

“The polls show him [Bobby Jindal] ahead big.” Not surprisingly, state Republicans are licking their chops. “The GOP is very organized and aggressively fundraising,” says a top Louisiana Democrat, who asked not to be named. “They will be well financed and looking to use a big gubernatorial win [in 2007] to catapult other GOP wins down ballot.” Louisiana is, in short, perhaps the only state in the nation where George W. Bush’s policies may end up creating a permanent Republican majority.

In fact, however, Louisiana was trending away from Democrats even before the hurricane. Bill Clinton carried the state in both 1992 and 1996. But Al Gore — who spent little time there, despite the fact that his campaign manager, Donna Brazile, knows the state’s politics better than almost anyone — received just 45 percent of the vote in 2000. Four years later John Kerry slipped to 42 percent. So recently a swing state, Louisiana will be on neither party’s 2008 target list.

Notice how the second paragraph establishes a causal connection between the national Democratic party’s lack of investment in Louisiana and the state’s rightward trend.  Somehow the fifty-state strategy of Dr. Dean flew over Louisiana, and state Democrats on the local, state and federal level are paying dearly.  And 2007 will be no different.  All statewide, executive offices are on the ballot, as is the entire state legislature, and I have written many diaries that are cited above on the 2007 situation.  Republicans can sweep both state legislative chambers and control redistricting after the 2010 census, lending them the opportunity to gerrymander districts to the favor of the Republicans.  And if a Republican governor in Bobby Jindal is elected, the gerrymander will be especially damaging to Democrats, as he and Sen. David Vitter (R) have been planning the 2007 collapse of the Louisiana Democratic Party for many years.  Discussion of this latest installment of the Southern Strategy can be found in the diaries I cite above, which contain links to other writers who have elaborated on the cynicism undergirding the Republicans’ power grab in Louisiana.

So Schaller has alerted a broader audience of a problem about which I have been writing for at least three months.  What can be done?  Will we bring the fight to the Louisiana GOP?  Or will we allow them to steamroll over our state? 

The first step would be donating to a grassroots Democratic candidate who is running in a special election to be held on 10 March for Louisiana House District Seat 94, a seat vacated by a Republican named Peppi Bruneau, who has held that seat since 1974.  I have penned a long article about this race here, noting how the grassroots, Democratic challenger, Deborah Langhoff, who in my opinion is an excellent candidate we should all support, has a real chance at winning this race.  Her strongest opponent, Jeb Bruneau, Peppi Bruneau’s son, has raised a lot of money with the help of his father and lobbyists in Baton Rouge.  But the cynicism of his father’s last minute retirement has upset voters in District 94, and this gives Langhoff a chance to win this race with her compelling message of governmental reform and change.  

Langhoff’s race is important, as this is one of the first competitive races in 2007.  With the entire legislature up for reelection in November,  a Langhoff victory will send the Louisiana GOP a signal that they have a very big fight on their hands if they want to change this state red.  It will also give beleaguered voters the hope that they will have representatives in Baton Rouge who understand their plight.  

Louisiana, as many of you may recall, was a swing state in 2000.  Clinton won the state in 1992 and 1996, and Mary Landrieu managed to eke out wins for her Senate seat in 1996 and 2002.  If Louisiana falls to the GOP, Arkansas will be the only Democratic leaning state in the South, and the GOP will eventually focus their efforts there.  We must stop the Southern Strategy, and this begins with supporting Deborah Langhoff now.  

Schaller claims that John Breaux, who may run for Governor, may be the only hope for the Louisiana Democratic Party.  Perhaps he is.  But we can also help out by participating in races such as LA-HD94 that may at first seem very insignificant.

Expect more diaries on Louisiana politics.  If the GOP sweeps the state, our displaced residents will most probably never be able to return home.  The GOP has been cynically exploiting Katrina and Rita for political gain, and it is incumbent upon us to inform them that we as citizens will not allow them to destroy a wonderful state in order to expand their political power.  I hope you will join me on behalf of this beautiful albeit struggling state.  And please accept my apologies for the rushed diary.

The ballot for the 10 March open primary for the open Louisiana State House District 94 seat, recently abandoned by Peppi Bruneau, a New Orleans Republican who held this seat since 1974, is set.  Here is how the ballot will appear for the special election:

State Representative, 94th Representative District
0 of 53 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
0  0% Philip C. Brickman, R –
0  0% “Jeb” Bruneau, R –
0  0% John M. Holahan, Jr., D –
0  0% Deborah J. Langhoff, D –
0  0% Nicholas J. “Nick” Lorusso, R –
0  0% William “Bill” Vanderwall, Sr., D –

Louisiana House District 94,

located in the northwestern corner of Orleans Parish, encompasses the Lake Vista, Lakeshore, Lake Terrace, Lake Oaks, Lakewood, Lakeview, Country Club Gardens, Parkview and City Park neighborhoods as well as parts of Mid-City, Gentilly and Faubourg St John.  Traditionally Republican, the voters of District 94 and of northwestern New Orleans have shown signs of shifting their political allegiances.  For in 2006 they ousted Republican incumbent Jay Batt in the City Council District A race and replaced him with Democratic newcomer Shelley Stephenson Midura, who ran an aggressive grassroots campaign that included everything from humorous television commercials to women clad in aprons protesting and marching on Carrollton Avenue.  Although some claim Midura’s 52-48 victory over Jay Batt in the 2006 runoff was an anomaly that was largely the result of population shifts in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, others maintain her victory was undergirded by voters’ distrust of incumbent politicians who were viewed as aloof, corrupt and unresponsive to the needs of the citizens they were elected to represent.

Midura’s 2006 victory is apposite to this discussion of the special election for LA-HD94 for many reasons:  Midura’s City Council A District,

although it contains Democratic precincts in Uptown and Mid-City not included in LA-HD94, is similar in shape and composition to LA-HD94; the open primaries for Midura’s race as well as the race for LA-HD94 contain large fields of candidates along with a vulnerable Republican incumbent, although in the case of LA-HD94 Jeb Bruneau is not the incumbent but the heir apparent of Bruneau père, who is attempting to transfer power from father to son; and Midura’s campaign consultant, Michael Beychok, has been hired by Democratic challenger Deborah Langhoff, a movement candidate who similar to Midura is running a campaign that highlights the corruption and cronyism of the Republican heir apparent while promising to provide overdue advocacy and representation for the beleaguered LA-HD94 voters who are still trying to recover and rebuild in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.  In other words, Langhoff is running on a compelling message of change, and she is using Midura’s victorious 2006 campaign as a model.

Deborah Langhoff is a political activist, small business owner and community organizer who understands the plight of the constituents she desires to serve: a resident of Lake Vista, her home was destroyed in Katrina.  She also has the political and community experience to wage a winning campaign: she founded Democrats in Jeans, a network of Louisiana Democrats who organized to provide assistance to hurricane survivors in the wake of Katrina; she is a Founding Member of the Citizens’ Road Home Action Team, a group who organized on the New Orleans Wiki who desire to ensure everyone receives their Road Home Program funds; she created LaRoots.net, a private database project that sustains and nutures grassroots organization in Louisiana that began as KerryRoots.net during the 2004 Presidential race; she and the group surrounding her who call themselves Beaucoup Blues organized with Jim Dean and Democracy for America in 2005 in order to “turn Louisiana blue;” and she has created and volunteered for multiple arts education programs in public schools in New Orleans.  In other words, Langhoff is the real deal, and her grassroots organization skills will be a huge benefit to the Democratic Party in Louisiana and in the United States as a whole.

Langhoff definitely has a chance of qualifying for the runoff and beating Jeb Bruneau, the presumed frontrunner, with the right amount of effort and funds.  LA-HD94 is comprised of 53 precincts, 42 of which are located in Midura’s City Council A District.  Midura won 10 of these 42 precincts, garnering 3,419 votes to Batt’s 5,385, or 38.8% to Batt’s 61.2%.  The precincts Midura won are located in Mid-City and Parkview, while Batt one in precincts located in Navarre, Lakewood, West End, Lakeview, Lakeshore, Lake Vista, Lake Terrace and Lake Oaks.  LA-HD94 does contain a Mid-City precinct not included in Midura’s City Council A District, and it also includes 2 in Faubourg St. John, also Democratic, and 5 in Fillmore, which is a lot more Democratic than the precincts located along Lake Pontchartrain and the Metarie Canal, where Batt beat Midura, sometimes by large margins.  LA-HD94 also contains 3 Lake Terrace and Lake Oaks precincts not located in Midura’s City Council A District.  A resident of Lake Vista, Langhoff will be able to reduce Republican margins in these precincts.  Midura’s 2006 victory also provides Langhoff with a precedent with which to lure voters to take her candidacy seriously. 

Although Langhoff will have to fight in order to win this seat, it is definitely feasible: she is the only woman on the ballot; there are no other races on the ballot on 10 March, which makes the open primary and the runoff turnout elections, especially as one other special election for the LA House in Orleans Parish in the wake of Katrina, LA-HD97, had very low turnout in the open primary and in the runoff, 2,300 and 5,400 votes respectively, when turnout for such races is normally about 9,000 to 10,000 votes; and Langhoff is exploiting, indeed exacerbating, a general distrust voters have for incumbent politicians, especially local politicians who failed to keep their constituents safe while never delivering the services they promised.

Visit Deborah Langhoff’s website, and consider contributing to her campaign.  Not only will her victory enable us to gain a LA House seat and thereby ensure that chamber is in Democratic hands for redistricting; her victory will be the first signal to the Louisiana GOP that they will have a big fight on their hands when they try to take over both state legislative chambers later this year.

 

Here is some interesting news from the Cook Political Report:

February 16, 2007

Breaking News: Former Democratic Sen. John Breaux is seriously considering a bid for Governor of Louisiana.  John Maginnis, editor of the highly regarded Louisiana Political Fax Weekly, initially reported the news this morning, and the Cook Political Report has independently verified that it is true.  Apparently Democratic Gov. Kathleen Blanco has privately indicated a willingness to step aside if Breaux, or possibly another Democrat, such as Rep. Charlie Melancon, would run instead.

None of this is a done deal, but Breaux is serious, and his candidacy would change the face of the race for Democrats.

John Maginnis, the Republican operative Cook Political Report cites in their breaking report, writes the following:

Breaux Eyes Governor’s Race
Former Sen. John Breaux has told sources he is “very interested” in running for governor if Kathleen Blanco doesn’t. T. he Fax Weekly spoke to three individuals who say Breaux directly told them of his renewed interest during Washington Mardi Gras.
“This is the most interested I’ve seen him than all the other b.s. we’ve been through,” said a friend of the 61-year-old ex-senator turned high-powered Washington lobbyist. He toyed with campaigning for governor in 2003 and for re-election in 2004, holding the political community and other campaigns in suspense until he announced he would not run.
News of Breaux’s interest both heartens Democrats and puts pressure on Blanco to make her decision soon. The governor is said to have a poll in the field.

If Cook Political Report cites Maginnis, I believe this is news to be taken very seriously.  For Breaux, as many here already know, won his reelection bids for his US Senate seat in 1992 and 1998 in the open primary, not a runoff, with 73% and 64% respectively.  And unlike Landrieu, Breaux’s base is not in Orelans Parish; it is in Acadiana, specifically Acadia Parish.  Moreover, Breaux has overwhelmingly carried what is now the very important, indeed crucial, population center of East Baton Rouge Parish, a feat Mary Landrieu has had much difficulty acheiving, although her 2002 runoff performance is promising. 

Blanco claims a poll is presently in the field, but I am not sure it will convince her to run now that Beaux has indicated a strong interest in the gubernatorial race.  For a Southern Media and Opinion Research poll in January 2007 reported the following:

Republican Jindal leads Blanco, a Democrat, 59 percent to 35 percent, according to a survey of 600 likely voters conducted during the weekend by Southern Media and Opinion Research.

In a three-way race with Democratic Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell, Jindal leads Blanco 58 percent to 31 percent, with Campbell pulling 6 percent.

I am not aware of any legislative feat Blanco has acheived with the state House or the state Senate in the past month, but she has managed to convince Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats to craft legislation to benefit Louisiana.  Blanco has also spent the last month vociferously criticizing Bush in the wake of Brown’s statement that the Bush Administration purposefully undermined Louisiana in order to undercut Blanco’s credibility.

But there are at least three variables we need to consider before we assume Breaux would beat Jindal in the open primary or in a very competitive runoff:  Foster Campbell, John Georges and Walter Boasso.  Foster Campbell, a populist Democrat from North Louisiana who is presently the Public Service Commissioner for one fifth of the state, has a warchest of $750,000, and he plans to run.  But Jindal will be splitting the Republican vote with at least Walter Boasso, a state Senator representing Plaquemines Parish, St. Bernard Parish and parts of St. Tammany Parish, and Orleans Parish businessman John Georges, who has committed $2 million of his own money to his campaign.  Jindal has $2.67 million, and Blanco has $3 million.  Although Breaux has not yet announced, I imagine he will match if not surpass Jindal’s warchest.  We should also keep in mind that Blanco, if she abandons her campaign, will have $3 million to distribute through various channels to Breaux. 

If Breaux chooses to run, this race will become very interesting.  As you can see, Jindal already has viable challenges from two Republicans and two Demcrats, Blanco included.  If Breaux enters, it may be possible Jindal does not even make a runoff, as he will split the Republican vote, particularly the Republican votes of populous Jefferson and St. Tammany Parishes, with a popular state Senator and a wealthy Orleans Parish businessman.  And Foster Campbell will complicate Jindal’s bid in North Louisiana, where Blanco, according to the January poll, still maintains an edge.  John Breaux will only compound the problems Jindal already faces, as Breaux will seriously reduce any support Jindal has in Acadiana, which according the January poll could have been a Jindal stronghold. 

While I am still awaiting Breaux’s entry, I am more optimistic about this race than I was a week ago.  A ticket of Jindal, Georges, Boasso, Breaux and Campbell will make it impossible for Jindal to win the Governor’s seat in 2007.  And I imagine this will make it very difficult for the Louisiana GOP to focus on state House and state Senate seats, as they will have to spend to ensure a Republican, any Republican, makes a runoff with Breaux.

And what of Foster Campell, you may ask?  It is a legitimate question.  Building name recognition in 2007, Campbell can prepare himself for a 2010 race against David Vitter, who is now, according to Maginnis, fashioning himself as another John Breaux.  Perhaps Vitter knows Louisianans are not ready to swallow his callous conservatism. 

National and local bloggers as well as a local political scientist, who is, in fact, a Republican operative, have already discussed the ineluctable loss of a US Congressional seat in Louisiana, and they have noted how the GOP is ready to pounce on a state Democratic Party made vulnerable by a national and political disaster.  While I will not express my disgust with the Republicans’ vacuous cynicism and the egregious opportunism of some members of the Louisiana GOP, I will focus on one remedy to this increasingly dire situation: the 2007 elections for every seat in the Louisiana Legislature.

The Louisiana House of Representatives is comprised of 105 seats.  The Democrats presently enjoy a strong majority of 60 seats in the House, while the Republicans and an Independent occupy 41 seats and one seat respectively.  3 seats are currently vacant.  This majority, however, is threatened by many factors, one of which are the term limits that have recently been imposed on all Louisiana legislators: 30 Democrats and 16 Republicans must abandon their seats in 2007.  Compounding the dilemma Louisiana Democrats will face when trying to retain all these open seats is the organization the Republican Party has already consolidated in preparation for the 2007 elections.  Republicans are “on the march in Louisiana,” crows John Maginnis, another Republican operative who poses as an objective news analyst and as a disinterested political commentator for the New Orleans Times-Picayune and other Louisiana newspapers.  While his confidence is somewhat founded, it is also premature, especially as the field for the 2007 legislative races has not yet assumed a discernable shape. 

But Maginnis and the people for whom he serves as a paid pamphleteer do have reason to be optimistic.  For out of the 60 Louisiana Democrats presently in the House, only 30 are eligible for reelection.  And even worse, four of the thirty Democratic incumbents will most probably have to stave off spirited Republican challenges for thier seats in 2007. 

Complicating this already grim predicament are the 30 open seats Democrats must try to retain, 16 of which could very well fall to the Republicans if they are not amply defended.  While two of the sixteen Republican open seats can be claimed by strong Democratic challengers, Republicans can win the House if they wage a coordinated campaign across the state.  Indeed, Democrats are only guaranteed 40 seats in the 2007 election, 13 short of the 53 needed to claim the majority of their chamber.  And even if they win all three of the vacant seats up for election on 24 FEB 2007, they will still be 10 seats short after the November 2007 runoffs.  If Louisiana Democrats and the online activists who should help them do not plan for the imminent Republican onslaught as John Maginnis describes it in advance, their ability to redraw the lines of US House seats to the advantage of Democratic incumbents after the 2010 census will be compromised.

Seats located in parishes that have voted for Democrats running for federal office statewide in 1996, 2000, 2002 and 2004 with incumbents unencumbered by term limits who have received little to no opposition in the last two election cycles are seats I consider guaranteed for the Democratic Party.  I also consider seats where Republicans have not competed in open seat primaries safe for the Democrats.  The maps located on this webpage will help you determine the exact location of these districts.  Seat numbers are printed in the order of Democratic strength, the weakest of which is typed last.

SAFE INCUMBENT DEMOCRATIC SEATS – LOUISIANA HOUSE

61 – Michael L. Jackson (D), East Baton Rouge Parish, elected 1999

101 – Cedric L. Richmond (D), Orleans Parish, elected 1999

102 – Jeffrey “Jeff” J. Arnold (D), Orleans, elected 2002

63 – Avon R. Honey (D), East Baton Rouge Parish, elected 2002

100 – Austin J. Badon, Jr. (D), Orleans Parish, elected 2003

97 – Jean-Paul L. Morrell (D), Orleans Parish, elected 2006

87 – Terrell L. Harris (D), Jefferson Parish, elected 2005

18 – Donald J. Cazayoux, Jr. (D), Pointe Coupee, West Baton Rouge and West Feliciana Parishes, elected 1999

21 – John F. “Andy” Anders (D), Concordia, East Carroll, Madison and Tensas Parishes, elected 2006

51 – Carla Blanchard Dartez (D), Assumption, St. Mary and Terrebonne Parishes, elected 1999

53 – Damon J. Baldone (D), Lafourche and Terrebonne Parishes, elected 2001

75 – Harold L. Ritchie (D), St. Tammany and Washington Parishes, elected 2003

10 – Jean M. Doerge (D), Webster Parish, elected 1998

60 – Karen Gaudet St. Germain (D), Ascension, Assumption, Iberville and West Baton Rouge Parishes, elected 2003

99 – Charmaine L. Marchand (D), Orleans Parish, elected 2003

96 – Juan A. LaFonta (D), Orleans Parish, elected 2005

91 – Jalila Jefferson-Bullock (D), Orleans Parish, elected 2003

29 – Regina Ashford Barrow (D), East Baton Rouge and West Baton Rouge Parishes, elected 2005

93 – Karen R. Carter (D), Orleans Parish, elected 1999

13 – James R. “Jim” Fannin (D), Bienville, Jackson, Ouachita and Winn Parishes, elected 2003

11 – Richard “Rick” Gallot, Jr. (D), Bienville, Lincoln and Claiborne Parishes, elected 2000

23 – T. Taylor Townsend (D), Natchitoches and Winn Parishes, elected 1999

38 – Kenneth Eric LaFleur (D), Evangeline and St. Landry Parishes, elected 1999

2 – Roy A. Burrell (D), Bossier and Caddo Parishes, elected 2003

28 – Monica H. Walker (D), Avoyelles Parish, elected 2003

56 – Gary L. Smith, Jr. (D), St. Charles and St. John the Baptist Parishes, elected 1999

26 seats

4 Democratic and 9 Republican incumbents presently occupy seats representing competitive districts.  These incumbents have received strong competition from an opposing party in an open primary, or they were forced to engage in very competitive runoffs against a member of the opposing party during the last two election cycles.  Some Republican incumbents, especially Nita Hutter and Ernest Wooton, are considered vulnerable as a result of demographic shifts in their districts in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.  Because Democrats may lose many of their open seats, it is to their advantage to wage vigorous challenges against Republicans who hold competitive seats in 2007, especially those Republicans who represent parishes with Democratic leanings.  Seat numbers are presented in order of Democratic strength, the weakest seat for Democrats typed last.  The lone Independent seat in the Louisiana House of Representatives is a competitive seat vulnerable to a Republican takeover.  Unfortunately, we did not run a candidate in the open primary for this seat during the 2004 special election.

COMPETITIVE INCUMBENT SEATS – LOUISIANA HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

98 – Cheryl Artise Gray (D), Orleans Parish, elected 2003

27 – Rick L. Farrar (D), Rapides Parish, elected 1991 and 1999

22 – Billy R. Chandler (D), Grant, LaSalle, Rapides and Winn Parishes, elected 2006

41 – Mickey James Guillory (D), Acadia, Evangeline and St. Landry Parishes, elected 2003

105 – Ernest D. Wooton (R), Jefferson, Plaquemines and St. Charles Parishes, elected 1999, switched from D to R in 2006

54 – Loulan J. Pitre, Jr. (R), Jefferson and Lafourche Parishes, elected 1999

104 – Nita Hutter (R),  St. Bernard Parish, elected 2000

62 – Thomas H. “Tom” McVea (R), East Baton Rouge, Tangipahoa, West Feliciana, East Feliciana, Livingston and St. Helena Parishes, elected 2000

35 – Brett Frank Geymann (R), Calcasieu and Beauregard Parishes, elected 2003

88 – M. J. “Mert” Smiley, Jr. (R), Ascension and Livingston Parishes, elected 2003

71 – Dale M. Erdey (R), Livingston Parish, elected 1999

59 – Eddie J. Lambert (R), Ascension Parish, elected 2003

52 – Gordon E. Dove, Sr. (R), Lafourche and Terrebonne Parishes, elected 2003

31 – Donald “Mark” Don Trahan (R), Lafayette and Vermilion Parishes, elected 2003

45 – Joel C. Robideaux (I), Lafayette Parish, elected 2004

15 seats

15 incumbent Republicans who are unencumbered with lerm limits are considered safe in 2007, but every single one of these seats must be challenged.  The most Republican district is typed last. 

SAFE INCUMBENT REPUBLICAN SEATS – LOUISIANA HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

16 – Kay Kellogg Katz (R), Ouachita Parish, elected 1999

43 – Ernest J. Alexander (R), Lafayette Parish, elected 1999

12 – Hollis Dawns (R), Lincoln and Union Parishes, elected 2003

36 – E. “Chuck” Kleckley (R), Calcasieu Parish, elected 2005

66 – Hunter V. Greene (R), East Baton Rouge Parish, elected 2005

69 – Gary J. Beard (R), East Baton Rouge Parish, elected 2001

81 – John LaBruzzo (R), Jefferson Parish, elected 2003

6 – Mike Powell (R), Bossier and Caddo Parishes, elected 2003

64 – Mack A. “Bodi” White, Jr. (R), East Baton Rouge and Livingston Parishes, elected 2003

89 – Timothy G. “Tim” Burns (R), St. Tammany Parish, elected 2003

86 – Jim Tucker (R), Jefferson and Orleans Parishes, elected 2001

8 – Jane H. Smith (R), Bossier Parish, elected 1999

76 – A. G. Crowe (R), St. Tammany Parish, elected 1999

74 – Michael G. Strain (R), St. Tammany Parish, Tangipahoa and Washington Parishes, elected 1999

5 – Wayne Wadell (R), Caddo Parrish, elected 1997

15 seats

30 Democrats and 16 Republicans must retire in 2008, leaving 46 open seats behind them.  14 seats are safe for Democrats, while 12 are safe for Republicans.  Of the 20 open seats I consider competitive, 16 are presently held by Democrats.  The weakest of these safe Democratic seats is typed last.

SAFE DEMOCRATIC OPEN SEATS – LOUISIANA HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

95(Heaton, D) – Orleans Parish

26(Curtis, D) – Rapides Parish

44(Pierre, D) – Lafayette Parish

17(Hunter, D) – Ouachita Parish

57(Faucheux, D) – St. James and St. John the Baptist Parishes

46(Durand, D) – St. Martin Parish

47(Frith, D) – Cameron and Vermilion Parishes

55(Triche, D) – Lafourche Parish

34(Guillory, D) – Calcasieu Parish

67(Dorsey, D) – East Baton Rouge Parish

39(Baudoin, D) – Lafayette, St. Landry and St. Martin Parishes

20(Kenney, D) – Caldwell, Catahoula, Franklin and Tensas Parishes

3(Baylor, D) – Caddo Parish

58(Quezaire, D) – Ascension, Assumption, Iberville, St. James and St. John Parishes

14 seats

Louisiana Democrats have the tall order of defending 16 of the following 20 competitive open seats.  One Republican seat, however, can be won by a Democrat.  Emile “Peppi” Bruneau, an Orleans Parish Republican who fashions himself as a “fiscal conversative,” has occupied the 94th seat since 1974.  According to Louisiana Republican insiders, Bruneau may retire within the next month, opening the seat for a special election to be held on 31 March, the day of the election for New Orleans’s municipal judges.  Although Bruneau will endeavor to hand this seat to his son with lobbyist money from Baton Rouge, New Orleans Democrats can derail this effort and win this seat, especially as Republican voters from Lakeview have yet to return and rebuild.  Shelley Stephenson Midura, whose City Council district is similar in shape to that of Bruneau’s House district, won her seat as a Democrat during the New Orleans municipal elections last year.  If Orleans Parish Democrats can find a Democrat from Lakeview to run an aggressive grassroots campaign similar to that of Midura, we can win this seat and add to our majority.  Does former New Orleans mayoral candidate Virginia Boulet want a Louisiana House seat?  The least likely seat to be one by a Democrat is typed last.

COMPETITIVE OPEN SEATS – LOUISIANA HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

83(Alario, D) – Jefferson Parish

84(Damico, D) – Jefferson Parish

94(Bruneau, R) – Orleans Parish (may retire in time for 31March election)

19(Thompson, D) – East Carroll, Madison, Morehouse, Ouachita, Richland and West Carroll Parishes

72(Carter, D) – East Feliciana, Tangipahoa, West Feliciana and St. Helena Parishes

103(Odinet, D) – Orleans and St. Bernard Parishes

42(Pinac, D) – Acadia and Lafayette Parishes

32(Hill, D) – Allen, Beauregard and Vernon Parishes

24(Salter, D) – DeSoto, Red River, Sabine and Vernon Parishes

70(Crane, R) – East Baton Rouge Parish

14(McDonald, D) – East Caroll, Morehouse, Ouachita, West Carroll

49(Hebert, D) – Iberia and Vermilion Parishes

25(DeWitt, D) – Rapides and Vernon Parishes

50(Smith, D) – Iberia, St. Martin and St. Mary Parishes

65(Kennard, R) – East Baton Rouge Parish

92(Ansardi, D) – Jefferson Parish

48(Romero, D) – Iberia Parish

7(Bruce, D) – Caddo and DeSoto Parishes

30(Smith, D) – Beauregard and Vernon Parishes

73(Powell, R) – Tangipahoa Parish

20 seats

All of the following safe Republican open seats must be challenged.  The weakest Democratic opportunity is typed last.

SAFE REPUBLICAN OPEN SEATS – LOUISIANA HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

15(Walsworth, R) – Ouachita Parish

68(Daniel, R) – East Baton Rouge Parish

33(Johns, R) – Beauregard and Calcasieu Parishes

82(Scalise, R) – Jefferson and Orleans Parishes

37(Moorish, R) – Calcasieu and Jefferson Davis Parishes

85(Toomy,R) – Jefferson Parish

79(Martiny, R) – Jefferson Parish

9(Montgomery, R) – Bossier Parish

80(Lancaster, R) – Jefferson Parish

78(Bowler, R) – Jefferson Parish

90(Schneider, R) – St. Tammany Parish

77(Winston, R) – St. Tammany and Tangipahoa Parishes

20 seats

Open primaries will be held for the three vacant House seats on 24 February 2007.  2 of these vacant seats are safe Democratic seats, while one of them is a competitive seat.  Here is how the ballot for these seats will appear:

State Representative, 1st Representative District
0 of 31 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
0  0% Michael Page Boyter, R –
0  0% Richard “Richie” Hollier, D –
0  0% Ruth W. Johnston, D –
0  0% “Jim” Morris, R –
0  0% Marc Weddleton, R –

State Representative, 4th Representative District
0 of 26 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
0  0% Larry Ferdinand, D –
0  0% Reginald Johnson, D –
0  0% Calvin “Ben” Lester, Jr., D –
0  0% Patrick C. Williams, D –

State Representative, 40th Representative District
0 of 43 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
0  0% “Jim” Darby, D –
0  0% “Chris” Declouette, D –
0  0% Elbert Lee Guillory, D –
0  0% “Bradford” Jackson, N –
0  0% Roderick “Rod” James, D –
0  0% Ledricka Johnson, D –

The 40th district seat, located in Opelousas, St. Landry Parish, is the safest Democratic seat with an election on 24 Feb, even if there is a candidate not affiliated with the Democratic Party on the ballot.  The 4th district seat in Shreveport is guaranteed for the Democrats, as only Democrats are on the open primary ballot.  But the 1st district ballot is somewhat worrisome.  Previously held by a Democrat, Rep. Hoppy Hopkins, who recently died of cancer, this is a competitive seat for Republicans: notice how they have three Republicans on the ballot.  Thankfully, we have only two Democrats on the ballot, giving us a chance to at least have one Democrat make the runoff, as Republicans will split their vote between three candidates.  Ruth Johnston, former restaurant owner and populist Justice of the Peace from Oil City, Louisiana (population 1,188), is the strongest Democratic candidate, although she does not have a website.  The other Democratic candidate, Richie Hollier, also lacks a website, and I hope Louisiana Democrats will begin to create campaign websites in the future, for some Republicans, especially those who fashion themselves as so many mindless clones of a David Vitter or a Piyush “Bobby” Jindal, already have. 

Beating Caddo Parish Commissioner Jim Morris in the first distrcit race on 27 FEB will be difficult, even if “Psycho Santa” is tarring the Republican brand with his eccentric marijuana rights platform .  Given the shape of this first district race, I hope you understand why I am so worried about 2007:  Republicans are fielding their best candidates for competitive seats, and Louisiana Democrats believe they can retain their fragile majorities without advanced infrastructure or Internet outreach.  This must change immeidately, and I plan on contacting Chris Whittington at the Louisiana Democratic Party office in Baton Rouge about this problem. 

Although I plan to contact local officials, I also plan to write the DLCC.  We can retain our majority in the Louisiana House of Representatives, but it will take some money, some time and some effort at recruitment.  It will have its dividends, however, as we will control redistrcting in 2010 after setting an overly confident Louisiana GOP to rout.  What better way to prepare Louisiana to vote for a Democratic Presidential candidate than to humiliate their state GOP party organization in a year when they expect to sweep legislative and executive offices throughout the state?

Expect a diary on LA-HD104 once Emile “Peppi” Bruneau’s retirement is confirmed.  This is a race Democrats can and must win before the October 2007 showdown.  And because the netroots was already involved in New Orleans politics with Karen Carter’s bid to oust Bill Jefferson, I imagine a residual infrastructure still exists in order to support this important effort.

 

Louisiana’s fifth district, Huey Long’s district, presently represented by Republican Rodney Alexander,

does not appear as competitive as LA-07, the first district about which I have written in this series on Louisiana’s Congressional seats.  Indeed, Republicans garner 68% of the vote in this seat’s open primaries when confronted with underfunded an inexperienced Democratic challengers.  Here are the results of the 2000, 2004 and 2006 open primaries:

2006
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 778 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
78,211  68% Rodney Alexander, R Elected
33,233  29% Gloria Williams Hearn, D Defeated
1,876  2% Brent Sanders, L Defeated
1,262  1% John Watts, O Defeated

2004
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 850 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
141,495  59% Rodney Alexander, R Elected
58,591  25% Zelma “Tisa” Blakes, D Defeated
37,971  16% John W. “Jock” Scott, R Defeated

2000
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 756 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
42,977  24% Roger Beall, D Defeated
123,975  69% John C. Cooksey, R Elected
5,335  3% Raymond A. “Chuck” Dumas, O Defeated
7,186  4% Sam Houston Melton, Jr., D Defeated

The poor performance of nominal Democrats in LA-05 is not very encouraging.  But in 2002 and in 1996, years in which this seat was open, very competitive challenges were waged by Democrats.  John Cooksey, a Republican who held this seat until he abandoned it in 2002 to run against Mary Landrieu in the open primary for Louisiana’s US Senate seat, won this seat in 1996.  The open primary results of the 1996 race follow the pattern outlined above: Republicans received 67% of the vote, while Democrats garnered 33%.

1996 Open Primary
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 796 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
9,286  5% Michael Jordan Caire, D Defeated
60,853  34% John Cooksey, R Runoff
48,226  27% Clyde Holloway, R Defeated
7,106  4% “Ben” Marshall, R Defeated
5,268  3% Tim Robinson, R Defeated
50,144  28% Francis Thompson, D Runoff

Although Republicans won 67% of the vote, Democrat Francis Thompson, a Representative in the Louisiana House of Representatives, managed to edge one of the Republican challengers and qualify for the runoff, where he cut into the Republican voting base and earned 42% of the vote.  Here are the results of the 1996 runoff:

1996 runoff
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 796 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
135,990  58% John Cooksey, R Elected
97,363  42% Francis Thompson, D Defeated

When voters are forced to choose between one Democrat and one Republican, the margin of difference between the parties’ respective vote totals decreases dramatically.

This was also the case in 2002, when the seat became open as a result of Cooksey’s abortive run for the US Senate.  Here are the results of the 2002 open primary, which also follows the partisan voting pattern I discuss above:

2002
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 746 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
52,952  29% Rodney Alexander, D Runoff
34,533  19% Robert J. Barham, R Defeated
45,278  25% Lee Fletcher, R Runoff
42,573  23% Clyde C. Holloway, R Defeated
4,595  2% Sam Houston Melton, Jr., D Defeated
1,145  1% Vinson Mouser, O Defeated
3,581  2% Jack Wright, R Defeated

Because three Republicans split their voting base, a Democrat named Rodney Alexander was able to qualify for the runoff despite winning only 29% of the vote.  Alexander won that runoff as a Democrat by 974 votes, staging a major upset in 2002, when Democrats performed poorly in federal races, especially in the South.  Here are the results of the 2002 runoff:

2002 runoff
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 746 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
86,718  50% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
85,744  50% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

The upset Alexander staged in 2002 is very similar to that waged by Democrat Charlie Melancon for the open Congressional seat in LA-03 in 2004, when Melancon won his seat by 569 votes.  Here are the results of LA-03’s 2004 open primary and runoff, which once again demonstrates how Democrats can compete in Louisiana if one Republican and one Democrat face off after a primary:

LA-03 2004 open primary

U. S. Representative, 3rd Congressional District
All 573 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
25,783  10% Damon J. Baldone, D Defeated
19,347  7% Charmaine Degruise Caccioppi, D Defeated
10,350  4% Kevin D. Chiasson, R Defeated
63,328  24% “Charlie” Melancon, D Runoff
61,132  23% Craig Romero, R Defeated
84,680  32% W.J. “Billy” Tauzin, III, R Runoff

LA-03 2004 runoff
U. S. Representative, 3rd Congressional District
All 573 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
57,611  50% “Charlie” Melancon, D Elected
57,042  50% W.J. “Billy” Tauzin, III, R Defeated

But more reasons exist for Alexander’s victory in 2002 than just the ability of Democrats to perform well when facing Republican opponents in highly publicized runoffs.  Alexander may have one his seat as a Democrat in 2002 as a result of perceived shifts in the Republican party.  For John Cooksey was not your standard southern Republican: although Cooksey personally opposed abortion rights, he did not believe the US Constitution should be amended with an abortion ban.  For to him, “federal bureaucrats” should have no role in shaping policy that affects the quotidian lives of Americans.  This psuedo-libertarian stance on cultural issues starkly contrasted with the campaign rhetoric of the Republican party in 2002, possibly swaying voters away from Fletcher to Alexander in the 2002 runoff.

Another factor in Alexander’s 2002 Democratic victory was the US Senate race, the only other federal race on the ballot in the 2002 runoff.  Many believe the Republican’s aggressive campaign against Landrieu backfired, propelling her to a surprise victory in a year when Democratic Senators lost their seats in the South.  Although Landrieu did not perform as well as Alexander in LA-05, she did receive 48.5% of the vote.  Here are the results of the 2002 Senate race runoff and the Congressional runoff in LA-05 by parish:

2002 US Senate Race and LA-05 House runoff results in LA-05

Allen Parish (half of which is in LA-05)
U. S. Senator
All 34 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
3,111  59% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,201  41% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 19 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,630  63% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
950  37% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Evangeline Parish (half of which is in LA-05)
U. S. Senator
All 61 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
4,740  51% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
4,563  49% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 26 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,396  44% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,811  56% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Iberville Parish (half of which is in LA-05)
U. S. Senator
All 44 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
7,390  68% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
3,431  32% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 20 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,970  69% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,363  31% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Pointe Coupee Parish (most of which is in LA-05)
U. S. Senator
All 24 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
4,977  62% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,998  38% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 15 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
3,044  76% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
967  24% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Avoyelles Parish
U. S. Senator
All 51 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
6,464  57% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
4,897  43% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 51 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
6,429  59% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
4,531  41% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Rapides Parish
U. S. Senator
All 106 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
15,346  46% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
17,983  54% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 106 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
17,045  52% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
16,011  48% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

LaSalle Parish
U. S. Senator
All 29 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,253  33% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,530  67% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 29 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,498  40% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
2,257  60% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Catahoula Parish
U. S. Senator
All 34 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,600  53% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
1,410  47% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 34 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,687  56% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,305  44% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Concordia Parish
U. S. Senator
All 23 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,853  53% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,491  47% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 23 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,701  51% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
2,560  49% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Winn Parish
U. S. Senator
All 29 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,038  48% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,247  52% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 29 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,477  58% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,784  42% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Caldwell Parish
U. S. Senator
All 20 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,237  43% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
1,635  57% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 20 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,354  47% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,511  53% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Franklin Parish
U. S. Senator
All 33 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,604  45% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
3,150  55% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 33 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,735  48% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
2,970  52% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Tensas Parish
U. S. Senator
All 27 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,270  60% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
847  40% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 27 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,246  60% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
844  40% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Madison Parish
U. S. Senator
All 25 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,759  57% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
1,333  43% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 25 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,738  57% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,295  43% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Richland Parish
U. S. Senator
All 23 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,680  44% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
3,368  56% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 23 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,847  47% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
3,163  53% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Ouachita Parish
U. S. Senator
All 79 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
17,330  41% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
24,450  59% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 79 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
17,422  42% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
23,982  58% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Jackson Parish
U. S. Senator
All 27 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,691  49% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,786  51% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 27 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
3,562  65% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,940  35% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Lincoln Parish
U. S. Senator
All 45 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
5,305  46% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
6,327  54% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 45 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
5,681  50% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
5,766  50% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Union Parish
U. S. Senator
All 46 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,714  39% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
4,181  61% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 46 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,778  41% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
4,023  59% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Morehouse Parish
U. S. Senator
All 32 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
4,009  50% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
3,974  50% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 32 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
3,956  50% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
3,946  50% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

West Carroll Parish
U. S. Senator
All 18 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,135  36% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,028  64% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 18 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,171  37% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,983  63% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

East Carroll Parish
U. S. Senator
All 19 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,360  63% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
801  37% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 19 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,351  63% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
782  37% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

The results of the US Senate and US House races in the 2002 runoff almost mirror one another, which has lead some to believe Landrieu and Alexander mutually assisted one another.  The only parish Landrieu won that Alexander did not was Evangeline Parish, and only Winn and Jackson Parishes were won by Alexander and not by Landrieu. 

Because Landrieu is a New Orleans Democrat, she did not perform as well as Alexander, who has resided in Northern Louisiana for at least three decades.  But notice the Democratic victory in 2002 was during a year when Landrieu was up for reelection.  This was also the case in 1996, when Democrat Francis Thompson made it into a runoff with John Cooksey, sharing the runoff ticket with Landrieu as she faced off with Republican Woody Jenkins.  LA-05, in other words, can be competitive for Democrats in a year when there is a US Senate race with a Democratic incumbent.  It can also be competitive during a Presidential election year. 

2008 is also promising, as races for federal offices will no longer have open primaries.  Each party will hold its own primary, and the winners of each party’s primary will face off in a general election.  Because 54% of Louisiana’s voters are registered Democrats, many voters who voted for a Republican in open primaries in the past will receive ballots for the Democratic party.  This will most probably result in the election of a consensus candidate who can compete throughout the entire district.  And because only two or three candidates representing different parties will share the ballot on election day, the results should be similar to the runoff results of 1996 and 2002, giving Democrats a viable chance to win Alexander’s seat.

Some believe it will be difficult to unseat Alexander now that he is a Republican.  Alexander switched parties and refiled his election petition just hours before the filing deadline for the open primary in 2004.  Although he claimed he switched parties as a result of the Democratic Party’s nomination of John Kerry for the Presidency, many understand his switch to be the result of White House entreaties.  Alexander was also promised a seat on the Appropriations Committee by the House Republican leadership.  This switch, however, has not helped him consolidate a broader voting base than that enjoyed by his predecessor Cooksey.  Similar to Cooksey in 2000, Alexander garnered 68 in the open primary in 2006.  He is now viewed as a Republican, and the Democrats who previously supported him in 2002 have abandoned him, making him vulnerable to a Democratic challenge.

Also complicating Alexander’s reelection bid in 2008 are the scandals in which his office became embroiled in October 2006.  His assistant was one of the pages pursued by Mark Foley online, and Alexander’s office did not report Foley’s abuse to House leadership, for Alexander claims the page’s parents did not want him to pursue the matter.  Alexander’s inability to manage the affairs of his office also surfaced when his former scheduler, Elizabeth Scott, sued his office for neglecting to take action against Royal Alexander, Rodney Alexander’s Chief of Staff, who engaged in lewd acts of sexual misconduct while sexually harrassing Scott.  Although Gloria Hearn, who lacked a website until a few weeks before the open primary, discussed these problems with voters, Alexander’s ethical lapses were not central to her campaign. 

Alexander’s gross negligence, Landrieu’s reelection for US Senate, changes in Louisiana’s primary system, the high number of African-Americans in the district (34%) and the high percentage of registered Democrats make Alexander a potentially vulnerable Republican incumbent.  Thankfully, the Democratic bench in LA-05 is very deep, as there are many eligible state legislators and mayors from which we can choose.

LOUISIANA STATE HOUSE – Eligible Candidates

Richard “Rick” GALLOT, Jr. – District 11
Bienville, Clairborne and Lincoln Parishes
Attorney
elected 2000, final term begins 2007
2003 – unopposed

James R. “Jim” FANNIN – District 13
Bienville, Jackson, Ouchita and Winn Parishes
Independent Businessman
elected 2003, final term begins 2011
2003 – defeated another Dem 56/44 in open primary

Charles W. DeWITT – District 25
Rapides and Vernon Parishes
Farmer and Businessman
elected 1979, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – unopposed

Israel B. CURTIS – District 26
Rapides Parish
Legislator
elected 1991, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – deated another Dem 53/47 in runoff

Rick L. FARRAR – District 27
Rapides Parish
Attorney
elected 1991 and 1999, final term begins 2007
2003 – deated Other Party candidate 61/39 in open primary

Charles “Charlie Mac” McDONALD – District 14
East Carroll, Morehouse, Ouchita and West Carroll Parishes
Retired University Administrator
elected 1991, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – unopposed

Willie HUNTER, Jr. – District 17
Ouachita Parish
Attorney
elected 1991, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – unopposed

Francis C. THOMPSON – District 19
East Carroll, Madison, Morehouse, Ouachita, Richland and West Carroll Parishes
Retired Educator
elected 1974, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – unopposed
1996 US House Candidate – defeated 58/42 by Republican in runoff

Lelon KENNEY – District 20
Caldwell, Catahoula, Franklin and Tensas Parishes
Farmer
elected 1995, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – defeated another Dem 63/37 in runoff

Monica H. WALKER – District 28
Avoyelles Parish
Business Owner
elected 2003, final term begins 2011
2003 – unopposed

Karen Gaudet ST. GERMAIN – District 60
Ascension, Assumption, Iberville and West Baton Rouge Parishes
Legislator
elected 2003, final term begins 2011
2003 – defeated another Dem 52/48 in runoff

Many state representatives will retire in 2007, and I imagine many of them can be convinced to run for Alexander’s seat.

LOUISIANA SENATE – Eligible Candidates

Charles D. “CD” JONES – District 34
Ouachita, Richland, East Carroll, Madison, Tensas and Concordia Parishes
Elected to Senate in 1992, eligible to serve through 2008
Former State Representative, 1980-1992; Retired Army Captain, 1976-1979
2003 – unopposed

Noble E. ELLINGTON – District 32
Ouachita, Caldwell, Richland, Franklin, Catahoula, LaSalle, Rapides, Avoyelles and Concordia Parishes
Elected to Senate in 1998, eligible to serve through 2008
Former State Representative, 1988-1995
2003 – defeated another Dem 80/20 in open primary

Joe McPHERSON – District 29
Rapides Parish
Elected to Senate in 2000, eligible to serve through 2012
Former State Senator, 1984-1996; United States Army Reserves
2003 – defeated another Dem 79/21 in open primary

Kenneth M. “Mike” SMITH – District 31
Sabine, Natchitoches, Winn, Grant and Rapides Parishes
Elected to Senate in 1996, eligible to serve through 2008
2003 – unopposed

Donald E. HINES, MD – District 28
Allen, Evangeline, Avoyelles and St. Landry Parishes
Elected to Senate in 1993, eligible to serve through 2008
Current Senate President
2003 – unopposed

Robert “Rob” MARIONNEAUX, Jr. – District 17
Pointe Coupee, West Baton Rouge, Iberville, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana and St. Helena Parishes
Elected to Senate in 2000, eligible to serve through 2012
2003 – defeated two Republicans 62/29/9 in open primary

Many state senators’ terms end in 2008.  Perhaps they too can be convinced to challenge Alexander.

MAYORS OF CITIES – Eligible Candidates

James E. “Jamie” MAYO – Mayor of Monroe
Ouachita Parish, population 52,163
elected October 2001, unopposed 2005

Clarence FIELDS – Mayor of Pineville
Rapides Parish, population 13,858
elected 2002, unopposed 2006

Clarence HAWKINS – Mayor of Bastrop
Morehouse Parish, population 12,763
elected 1989, reelected 2005 83/17 against another Dem in open primary
no website

Mark A. “Tony” GULOTTA – Mayor of Plaquemine
Iberville Parish, population 6,894
elected 1992, unopposed 2004
website under construction

Deano THORNTON – Mayor of Winnfield
Winn Parish, population 5,484
elected April 1994, reelected April 2006 51/49 over another Dem in open primary

Richard MICHAEL – Mayor of Marksville
Avoyelles Parish, population 5,695
elected 1978, reelected April 2006 unopposed
no website

Jack HAMMONS – Mayor of Winnsboro
Franklin Parish, population 5,149
elected 1998, reelected April 2006 53/45 over another Dem in open primary
no website

Isaac FIELDS, Jr. – Mayor of Lake Providence
East Carroll Parish, population 4,751
elected 2002, reelected October 2006 unopposed
no website

Officials who were just elected to his or her office are not considered eligible, as are those who will not complete the first term of their office by 2007.  A populist Democrat with experience and knowlege of agriculture who has a pseudo-libertarian view of government, especially with respect to cultural and social issues, would be an ideal candidate.  Winnfield, the county seat of Winn Parish, is Huey Long’s hometown, and I imagine a message of agricultural development and economic development in this very poor district will resonate with its voters.

Resources with which to contact activists in this district include Democratic Meetups for Monroe, Louisiana, which includes contact information for the DNC’s congressional district field coordinator, Jeanie Williams-West.  One can also contact members of the Louisiana Democratic Party through their website.

I cannot emphasize the importance of fielding strong challengers to every Congressional seat held by a Republican in Louisiana.  Not only will this help us expand our majority; it will also secure high turnout for Sen. Landrieu and for our Presidential candidate in a year when Democrats and Republicans will hold for the first time separate primaries, thus guarenteeing a race between one Democrat and one Republican on the general election.  As I explain above, this increases our chances of winning Congressional seats in this state, especially if we hold competitive Democratic primaries for each Congressional seat presently held by a Republican.
 

LA-07, presently represented by Republican sophomore Charles Boustany,

is historically Democratic.  Chris John, a Democrat, previously held this from 1997 until he resigned in 2004 to run for an open US Senate seat.  Before John a conservative Democrat named Jimmy Hayes, who left the Democratic party in 1995 and ran an abortive campaign for US Senate in 1996, held this seat for five terms.

A split Democratic party after a contentious open primary allowed Boustany to win this seat in 2004.  Here are the results of the open primary:

U. S. Representative, 7th Congressional District
All 558 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
105,761 39% Charles Boustany, Jr., R  Runoff 
5,177 2% Malcolm R. Carriere, D  Defeated 
67,389 25% “Don” Cravins, D  Defeated 
69,079 25% Willie Landry Mount, D  Runoff 
26,526 10% David Thibodaux, R  Defeated

 

Republicans captured only 49% of the vote in the open primary, even though President Bush performed quite well in the district, garnering 60 percent of the vote on the same day.  Democrats, on the other hand, captured 51% of the vote.  But Cravins’s unwillingness to fully back Mount in the runoff resulted in Boustany’s win, an unprecedented win, as he was the first Republican to ever hold this seat.  Here are the 2004 runoff results:

U. S. Representative, 7th Congressional District
All 558 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
75,039 55% Charles Boustany, Jr., R  Elected
61,493 45% Willie Landry Mount, D  Defeated

 

Boustany should have been and could have been a vulnerable freshman incumbent in 2006.  The DCCC and the Louisiana Democratic Party chose to not challenge his seat, however.  But Boustany still nonetheless had an opponent in online Democratic activist Mike Stagg, who held Boustany at 71% with little name recognition and very little funding.  One also should not dismiss the general state of chaos that plagued and continues to plague this district in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.  Here are the results of the 2006 open primary:

U. S. Representative, 7th Congressional District
All 517 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
113,720 71% Charles W. Boustany, Jr., R  Elected
47,133 29% Mike Stagg, D  Defeated

 

Boustany has done very little to distinguish himself in the House of Representatives during his first term: he did not sponsor legislation while in the majority; and he did not assume a leadership role in the wake of the hurricanes.  Now in the minority, I doubt a sophomore Republican will have many opportunities to assume a meaningful role in the legislative process.  This should contribute to his vulnerability, as should the historical Democratic lean of his district.

Complicaing his reelection bid in 2008 is the reelection bid of Sen. Mary Landrieu.  Landrieu cosponsored legislation with Pete Domenici of New Mexico to earmark offshore oil and gas revenues to the reconstruction of Louisiana’s wetlands, half of which are in Boustany’s district.  Landrieu has also directed funds from many different bills to Louisiana, while Boustany has done virtually nothing to help the district, even though he has a seat on the House Transportation Committee. 

I mention this, as Landrieu won many of the parishes in Boustany’s district in the 2002 runoff.  Here are the results of the 2002 runoff:

Calcasieu Parish

U. S. Senator
All 110 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
25,918 53% Mary Landrieu, D  Elected
22,546 47% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R  Defeated 

Cameron Parish

U. S. Senator
All 15 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,279 50% Mary Landrieu, D  Elected
1,277 50% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R  Defeated 

Jefferson Davis Parish

U. S. Senator
All 45 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
4,179 53% Mary Landrieu, D  Elected
3,780 47% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R  Defeated 

Acadia Parish

U. S. Senator
All 65 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
7,195 47% Mary Landrieu, D  Elected
8,214 53% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R  Defeated 

Vermilion Parish

U. S. Senator
All 62 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
7,358 51% Mary Landrieu, D  Elected
7,042 49% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R  Defeated 

St. Landry Parish

U. S. Senator
All 85 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
13,165 58% Mary Landrieu, D  Elected
9,648 42% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R  Defeated 

Lafayette Parish

U. S. Senator
All 111 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
21,144 41% Mary Landrieu, D  Elected
30,568 59% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R  Defeated 

Evangeline Parish (half of which in district)

U. S. Senator
All 61 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
4,740 51% Mary Landrieu, D  Elected
4,563 49% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R  Defeated

Landrieu won every parish except for Acadia and Lafayette, and she trailed Terrell by only 2,600 out of 169,000 cast.  In other words, a Louisiana Democrat can compete in this district.  The key to victory, however, is to reduce Republican margins in Acadia and Lafayette Parishes.

District 7 can be won by a Democrat, but that Democrat must campaign early, raise funds early and receive support from the Louisiana Democratic Party and the DCCC.  2008 is also an ideal time to run a strong Democrat in District 7, as Federal Elections in Louisiana will no longer follow the jungle primary model of the state.  According to the Times-Picayune,

In 2008, voters will decide the next U.S. Senate and House elections through a series of party primaries and runoffs to select the most popular Democrat, Republican and third-party candidates. The party nominees will then meet in the November general election, along with any independent candidates.

Democrats and Republicans will have separate primaries for federal elections in 2008, in other words, obviating potential intraparty wars similar to the war between Mount and Cravens that cost Democrats the runoff in 2004. 

This situation is also advantageous to Democrats for another reason.  According to the same Times-Picayune article:

The legacy of that trend still shows up in Louisiana’s voter registration statistics long after other Southern states shifted en masse to the Republican Party. About 54 percent of voters are registered Democrats, compared with 24 percent Republican and 22 percent of other or no affiliation, according to the secretary of state.

If these voters arrive at the polls for the Democratic primary, they will most probably choose a candidate who can compete in all parishes, even Acadia and Lafayette Parishes.  This, I believe, can only be advantageous for Louisiana Democrats.

Now the difficult part is to recruit two or three Louisiana Democrats to run for Boustany’s seat.  There are, thankfully, many Democrats who hold state office in District 7, and I list their names and their offices below.  I also provide other pertinent information.

LOUISIANA STATE HOUSE – Eligible Candidates

Mickey FRITH – District 47
Cameron and Vermilion Parishes
Retired teacher/principal
elected 1995, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – won 64% against another Dem. in open primary

Elcie J. GUILLORY – District 34
Calcasieu Parish
Retired
elected 1993, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – won 70% against another Dem. in open primary

Gillis J. PINAC – District 42
Acadia Parish
Corporate Finance
elected 1995, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – unopposed in open primary

Mickey James GUILLORY – District 41
Acadia, St. Landry and Evangeline Parishes
Retired State Police Officer
elected 2003, final term begins 2011
2003 – defeated Republican 58/42 in open primary

Kenneth Eric LaFLEUR – District 38
Evangeline and St. Landry Parishes
Attorney
elected 1999, final term begins 2007
2003 – defeated Other party candidate 81-91 in open primary

Clara Guilbeau BAUDOIN – District 39
St. Landry, St. Martin and Lafayette Parishes
Public servant
elected 1995, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – defeated another Dem. and Other party candidate 59-29-12

Wilfred T. PIERRE – District 44
Lafayette Parish
Owner/Manager of Three Frenchmen Janitorial
elected 1991, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – unopposed

5 Representatives in the state House must retire in 2007 as a result of term limits.  This will give them a year to campaign for the seat if they choose to run.  The other 2 Representatives also have strong resumes, and they too can be encouraged to run.

LOUISIANA STATE SENATE – Eligible Candidates

Willie L. MOUNT – District 27
Calcasieu Parish
Elected to Senate in 2000, eligible to serve through term ending 2012
Former Mayor of Lake Charles, 1992-1999
Candidate for US House in 2004, lost to a Republican 45/55 in runoff
2003 – unopposed

“Nick” GAUTREAUX – District 26
Vermilion, Acadia, Lafayette and St. Landry Parishes
Elected to Senate in 2004, eligible to serve through term ending 2016
2003 – defeated a Republican 54/46 in open primary

MAYORS OF CITIES – Eligible Candidates

Randy ROACH – Mayor of Lake Charles
Calcasieu Parish, population 70,735
appointed 2000, reelected 2001, reelected 2005, defeating another Dem 85/15 in an open primary

Ron LeLEUX – Mayor of Sulphur
Calcasieu Parish, population 19,901
elected 2002, reelected 2006, defeated another Dem 80/20 in an open primary

Mark PIAZZA – Mayor of Abbeville
Acadia Parish, population 11,698
elected 2002, reelected 2006, defeated another Dem 59/41 in an open primary

Terry W. DUHON – Mayor of Jennings
Jefferson Davis Parish, population 10,712
elected 2003, reelected in 2005, defeating a Republican 70/30 in an open primary

James J. “Jimbo” PETITJEAN – Mayor of Rayne
Acadia Parish, population 8,537
in office since at least 1994, unopposed in 2006
(no website)

Hazel MYERS – Mayor of Scott
Lafayette Parish, population 7,855
in office since at least 1994, reelected in 2006, defeating another Dem 64/36

Charles E. LANGLINAIS – Mayor of Broussard
Lafayette and St. Martin Parishes, population 6,314
elected 2002, reelected in 2006, defeating a Republican 57/43 in an open primary

Glenn L. BRASSEAUX – Mayor of Carencro
Lafayette Parish, population 6,022

OTHER ELECTED OFFICIALS
C. Dale SITTIG – Louisiana Public Service Commission, Commissioner District 4
Acadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron, Catahoula, Evangeline, Grant, Jefferson Davis, LaSalle, Pointe Coupee, Rapides, St. Landry, St. Martin, Vermilion and Vernon Parishes
Louisiana House of Representatives, 1983-1995
Elected 1995, term limited, ending 2010
2004 – unopposed

Officials who were just elected to his or her office are not considered eligible, as are those who will not complete the first term of their office by 2007.

Resources available to activists include the Lafayette Democrats and the Southwest Louisiana Democrats websites and their mutual blog, where 2006 Democratic candidate Mike Stagg and other local Democrats post.  The Lafayette Dems have a weekly cable television show, Blue Mondays, where they interview prominent politicians such as Mary Landrieu.  Episodes of Blue Mondays are available on YouTube.  One of the bloggers at Lafayette Democrats, Anthony Fazzio, is very impressive.  Here are two videos with Fazzio, who is an attorney in Lafayette:

Perhaps Anthony Fazzio can be recruited.

Lafayette Democrats are also putting pressure on Boustany, who has voted against the Democrats’ 100 hours.  Here is the program:

I hope this helps, and I hope we will recruit and support a Democrat in LA-07 in 2008.  Not only will this help us gain a seat in the US House; it will also ensure we do not lose a seat in 2012 when Louisiana will most probably lose a Congressional seat.  Making every Louisiana House seat competitive will also aid Mary Landrieu’s 2008 Senate reelection bid.

I already posted lists ranking the 132 most vulnerable members of the House and the 60 most vulnerable House Democrats.  Rankings are based on PVI, 2004 incumbent or incumbent party performance and 2006 incumbent performance.  Those who received less than 55% of the vote in 2006 are in bold, and House fresh(wo)men are in italics.  Although these rankings are far from definitive, they do provide one with a sense of how the landscape will appear in 2008.

1 CT-04 (SHAYS) D+5
2 WA-08 (REICHERT) D+2
3 PA-06 (GERLACH) D+2
4 NM-01 (WILSON) D+2
5 NV-03 (PORTER) D+1
6 NJ-07 (FERGUSON) R+1
7 NC-08 (HAYES) R+3
8 PA-15 (DENT) D+2
9 MI-09 (KNOLLENBERG) R+0
10 IL-06 (ROSKAM) R+3

11 FL-13 (BUCHANAN) R+4
12 OH-15 (PRYCE) R+1
13 MN-06 (BACHMANN) R+5
14 MI-07 (WALBERG) R+2
15 AZ-01 (RENZI) R+2
16 MI-11 (McCOTTER) R+1
17 NY-26 (REYNOLDS) R+3
18 NY-29 (KUHL) R+5
19 CO-04 (MUSGRAVE) R+9
20 IL-10 (KIRK) D+4

21 VA-02 (DRAKE) R+6
22 OH-01 (CHABOT) R+1
23 NY-13 (FOSSELLA) D+1
24 IL-11 (WELLER) R+1
25 CA-26 (DREIER) R+3
26 CA-50 (BILBRAY) R+5
27 VA-11 (DAVIS) R+1
28 PA-03 (ENGLISH) R+2
29 MN-02 (KLEIN) R+3
30 OH-02 (SCHMIDT) R+13

31 NY-03 (KING) D+2
32 KY-04 (DAVIS) R+12
33 FL-08 (KELLER) R+3
34 IA-04 (LATHAM) D+0
35 NJ-05 (GARRETT) R+4
36 NY-25 (WALSH) D+3
37 MI-08 (ROGERS) R+2
38 NJ-03 (SAXTON) D+3
39 WY-AL (CUBIN) R+19
40 DE-AL (CASTLE) D+7

41 WV-02 (CAPITO) R+5
42 OH-12 (TIBERI) R+1
43 PA-18 (MURPHY) R+2
44 OH-14 (LaTOURETTE) R+2
45 TX-32 (SESSIONS) R+11
46 FL-15 (WELDON) R+3
47 WA-05 (McMORRIS) R+7
48 NJ-02 (LoBIONDO) D+4
49 OH-03 (TURNER) R+3
50 CA-04 (DOOLITTLE) R+11

51 NE-02 (TERRY) R+9
52 NV-02 (HELLER) R+8
53 NE-01 (FORTENBERRY) R+12
54 AZ-02 (FRANKS) R+9
55 VA-10 (WOLF) R+5
56 IL-15 (JOHNSON) R+6
57 AL-03 (ROGERS) R+4
58 MI-04 (CAMP) R+3
59 NM-02 (PEARCE) R+6
60 NC-05 (FOXX) R+15