Tag: John Georges

• FL-Sen: Jeb Bush has studiously avoided explicitly taking sides in the Florida Senate primary, but various actions (like sending out his sons to endorse Marco Rubio) have tipped his hand. Another moment like that today, as he said on a radio interview that he’s “proud” of Rubio and the challenge he’s mounted. Meanwhile, Charlie Crist seems to be digging in rather than making plans to switch to an indie or Dem bid: he’s saying “he’s no RINO,” and perhaps more tellingly, now saying he opposes the repeal of “don’t ask don’t tell,” a wedge issue he could be using to propel himself out of the GOP if he so chose. (h/t sapelcovits)

• OH-Sen: Geez, this is just bad to worse for Jennifer Brunner. She’s been holding off on reporting her fundraising again, and here’s why: she raised $93,000 in the fourth quarter, and managed to burn through more than that, leaving her sitting on a whopping total of $60,000 in the bank (1% of what Rob Portman has). Clearly she thinks someone is going to bail her out at some point – I’m just wondering who she thinks it’ll be.

• FL-Gov (pdf): Republican internal pollster McLaughlin & Assocs. finds a sizable lead for Republican AG Bill McCollum over Democratic state CFO Alex Sink: 41-30. That’s right in line with both Rasmussen and Quinnipiac’s most recent looks at the race, so this one seems to be moving away from Sink for the time being.

• IL-Gov: With all the new allegations popping up about pawnbroker-turned-LG nominee Scott Lee Cohen – on top of yesterday’s news about his rap sheet, today’s news features his steroid use and resulting ‘roid rage and sexual violence — I’m starting to wonder where the other Lt. Governor candidates were in terms of doing opposition research. For that matter, where was the media? That’s the kind of thing that sells papers, if nothing else. At any rate, Cohen is saying he isn’t stepping down (having invested more than $2 million of his own money in winning the race purely on name rec), while Pat Quinn is reduced to saying that “the situation will resolve itself.” Ex-Sen. Adlai Stevenson is advising Quinn to take the same route he did in 1986 when he was saddled with a LaRouchie running mate, which is to abandon ship and make a third-party run. Of course, that didn’t work too well for Stevenson, who lost anyway, although he was running an uphill fight against popular Gov. Jim Thompson.

The one bright spot for the Dems in all this is that the GOP may be months away from having a candidate. State Sen. Kirk Dillard, who came up 406 votes short, isn’t conceding, and is saying let’s wait until all the absentee and provisional ballots (possibly up to 10,000 of them) are counted. Even if he wants a recount, that won’t be able to start until the race’s certification in early March.

• MN-Gov: The Democratic field in the Minnesota governor’s race got a little smaller, as state Sen. Steve Kelley dropped out. He was probably motivated by his poor showing on Tuesday’s informal straw poll, where he finished with 4%, behind at least half a dozen other candidates and “uncommitted” as well.

• OR-Gov: With ex-SoS Bill Bradbury getting a Howard Dean endorsement, ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber just rolled out an endorsement of his own from another netroots favorite: Steve Novick, who barely lost the 2008 Senate primary. Kitzhaber, of course, was one of the few establishment figures to line up behind Novick, so Novick is returning the favor. (You’ve gotta love the photo of the two of them at the link.)

• AL-05: Looks like the Democrats are moving closer to a candidate to take on Parker Griffith (or whoever defeats him in the GOP primary). Taze Shepard, a Huntsville attorney and elected member of the state Board of Education in the 90s, is considering the race. He has quite the pedigree, too: he’s the grandson of John Sparkman, who represented the 5th from 1936-1946 and then was Alabama’s senator from 1947 to 1979 (and was the Democratic VP nominee in 1952). Also, Griffith may have a little more company in the GOP primary, and it’s an old foe: businessman Wayne Parker, who narrowly lost to the Democratic version of Griffith in the open seat race in 2008.

• MA-10: There are increasing retirement rumors about Rep. William Delahunt, since, of course, the dominant narrative is that Democrats start to cry and run home as soon as usually-ignored Reps face a halfway-credible challenge. Also feeding the rumors, perhaps, are Delahunt’s fundraising numbers from last quarter: $31K (although he is sitting on $568K). What may be most interesting is that the rumors all come with a likely replacement attached: Joe Kennedy III.

• WA-08: Ex-Microsoft executive Suzan Del Bene brings her own money to the race (and lots of it – she already has $773K on hand, compared with Rep. Dave Reichert’s $477K), but now she’s poised to tap into a nationwide donor base, with an endorsement from EMILY’s List.

• Mayors: So primary season is here for real: the primary election in the New Orleans mayoral race is tomorrow. With a highly cluttered field and one clear frontrunner looming over the field (Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu), the real question here seems to be who manages to get into a runoff with Landrieu (who was polling at 45% in the most recent poll of the race). Other major opponents include John Georges, Rob Couhig, Nadine Ramsey, James Perry, and Troy Henry.

Crossposted at Daily Kingfish

The coverage of L’Affaire Vitter is just beginning to have its discursive effects: the Republican Party is splintered, and Walter Boasso is experiencing the first phase of what will be an unstoppable surge.  According to an Anzalone-Liszt poll cited by Steven Sabludowsky of The Bayou Buzz,

“Boasso has more than tripled his current vote since May, moving from 6% to 21% with just four weeks of a moderate television buy. Currently Jindal leads with 52%, followed by Boasso (21%), Campbell (6%) and Georges (1%). One-in-five voters are still undecided (21%).

Not only has Boasso moved up 15 points, the undecided vote has increased by 7 points, from 14% to 21%. The Boasso television has softened Jindal and Campbell’s support and moved some of their votes to the undecided column. (Campbell’s support is down to 6%, from 9% in May).”

Walter Boasso educates the voters; Walter Boasso’s numbers grow.  And I imagine they will continue to grow once voters realize “Bobby” Jindal’s misleading message of ethics and change has no real empirical basis.  That Foster Campbell and John Georges are yet to air television commercials should be kept in mind.  In other words, Jindal will find himself in what will be a bitter but entertaining runoff.

Also interesting in Sabludowsky’s article is following report from the Jindal rally in Kenner:

But, after attending the Jindal rally in Kenner Louisiana (a suburb of New Orleans), there was no question that anger was in the air.  One very prominent Republican leader told me off the record that Vitter only cares about himself.  So, why Vitter chose one hour before the Jindal rally escapes many.

Kenner is the base of Jindal and Vitter.  If voters are confused and exasperated in Jefferson Parish, I can only wonder what they are saying in other areas of the state.  I know voters are not terribly pleased with either of the ethically and morally challenged Republicans in my neck of the woods.

Sabludowsky’s claim that Jefferson Parish voters are splintered and upset is corroborated by Jeff Crouère’s discussion of how all the media attention directed to the Vitter press conference in Metairie upset Jindal partisans, as they feel their candidate is entitled to all the coverage.  If this has created a Republican rift as Crouère alleges, Jindal may have a problem consolidating the Republican vote by October.

The Governor’s race is far from over, mes amis.  Georges and Campbell are not yet on the air, and Boasso is still introducing himself to voters.  To use of trite phrase that is the rallying cry of Daily Kingfish: Laissez les bons temps rouler!

 

Crossposted at Daily Kingfish, a Louisiana politics blog by and for Louisiana Democrats

Even though the full results have been made available to the media, the Louisiana GOP refuses to read and to acknowledge a Verne Kennedy poll commissioned by John Georges, Republican candidate for Governor from Metairie.  The poll of 600 Louisianans conducted 29 March through 3 April yielded some interesting results.  According to the Shreveport Times,

When the poll concentrated only on Jindal, Breaux and Georges, the responses to the question about which candidate the respondent would chose if the election were today were 39 percent for Jindal, 30 percent for Breaux and 14 percent for Georges, with 17 percent uncertain.

And they continue,

In the trial heat between Jindal and Breaux, 49 percent chose Jindal and 36 percent Breaux, with 15 percent undecided.

Jindal and the Louisiana GOP thought Jindal would coast to the Governor’s mansion in October.  Jindal has been campaigning throughout the state for months, including making appearances and offering “testimony” in Baptist churches, and the Louisiana GOP daily demonizes every candidate who has announced an intention to run, whether it be Walter Boasso (R-Arabi), John Breaux (D-Crowley) or John Georges, who Roger Villere, Chairman of the Louisiana GOP, calls an “opponent.”  Given all this effort on behalf of Jindal by the Louisiana GOP, one would expect Jindal to be a prohibitive favorite, not a mere favorite, especially since Jindal has been behaving as if he is the heir apparent since Blanco announced her intention to not run for reelection.  49%, in other words, is a weak number for someone who is treated as an incumbent both by the media and by his political party.

The following should also serve as a source of aggravation for an already splenetic Louisiana GOP, especially as Breaux, Campbell, Boasso and Georges are yet to engage in full campaigning:

In a trial heat for governor, when voters were read a list of all possible candidates for governor, the preferences were 39 percent for Jindal, 23 percent for Breaux, 10 percent for Georges, 5 percent for Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu, 4 percent for state Treasurer John Kennedy, 2 percent for Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell and 1 percent each for state Sen. Walter Boasso and former Attorney General Richard Ieyoub.

Perhaps 39 percent is the highest Jindal can earn with the present field of candidates in the jungle primary.  Yes, Mitch Landrieu, Richard Ieyoub and John Kennedy have not announced and will not announce, but I doubt supporters of John Kennedy and especially Mitch Landrieu and Richard Ieyoub will cast their votes for Jindal.  And I imagine Foster Campbell, Walter Boasso, John Georges and John Breaux will expand their bases once they launch their respective campaigns.  After all, Breaux has not officially announced, and John Georges, who hails fom Jinda’s Congressional district, will, according to politicsla.com, which requires a subscription,

emphasize his similarities on economic and social issues with Republican frontrunner Congressman Bobby Jindal before drawing distinctions in background and ability. “In July, people will look at that and say, ‘He’s just like Bobby.’ Then we will differentiate,” he said.
For instance: “The difference between Bobby and me is I am a decision maker while he is a policy maker,” he said. “Jindal suffers from the same problem Kathleen Blanco does. He waits to see which way the wind is blowing.”

Boasso will chip away at Jindal’s Republican base from the other end, the end of the reformer, the populist.  Here is Boasso’s message:

“It’s the same old people trying to control things,” he said. “They put it out into the public that it was a big consensus. That’s misleading.

“The days when these small groups of insiders determine our future has got to come to an end.”

And Boasso and Georges, both millionaires, will have the money to communicate their respective messages.

Jindal will not have much room to manoeuvre once Boasso and Georges introduce themselves to the public.  Moreover, Foster Campbell (D-Bossier City), former state Senator and current Public Service Commissioner for north Louisiana, will mobilize northern Louisianans and others disenchanted with utility companies and oil interests.  And complicating this is the base Breaux already has despite the Louisiana GOPs coordinated smear campaign, which includes letters to the editors of The Shreveport Times and  The Ouchita Citizen, biased journalism by sympathetic reports, a website and a redundant television ad airing throughout the state of Louisiana. 

Piyush “Bobby” may have to accept the 39% of Verne Kennedy’s poll, which probably explains why Roger Villere is now telling reporters he wants to abolish the jungle primary for state races.  If you cannot force everyone out of the field in the name of a Jindal victory, then I guess the only option left is to change the election process.  Why do Jindal and Villere have such contempt for Louisiana voters and for Louisiana election law?

Here is some interesting news from the Cook Political Report:

February 16, 2007

Breaking News: Former Democratic Sen. John Breaux is seriously considering a bid for Governor of Louisiana.  John Maginnis, editor of the highly regarded Louisiana Political Fax Weekly, initially reported the news this morning, and the Cook Political Report has independently verified that it is true.  Apparently Democratic Gov. Kathleen Blanco has privately indicated a willingness to step aside if Breaux, or possibly another Democrat, such as Rep. Charlie Melancon, would run instead.

None of this is a done deal, but Breaux is serious, and his candidacy would change the face of the race for Democrats.

John Maginnis, the Republican operative Cook Political Report cites in their breaking report, writes the following:

Breaux Eyes Governor’s Race
Former Sen. John Breaux has told sources he is “very interested” in running for governor if Kathleen Blanco doesn’t. T. he Fax Weekly spoke to three individuals who say Breaux directly told them of his renewed interest during Washington Mardi Gras.
“This is the most interested I’ve seen him than all the other b.s. we’ve been through,” said a friend of the 61-year-old ex-senator turned high-powered Washington lobbyist. He toyed with campaigning for governor in 2003 and for re-election in 2004, holding the political community and other campaigns in suspense until he announced he would not run.
News of Breaux’s interest both heartens Democrats and puts pressure on Blanco to make her decision soon. The governor is said to have a poll in the field.

If Cook Political Report cites Maginnis, I believe this is news to be taken very seriously.  For Breaux, as many here already know, won his reelection bids for his US Senate seat in 1992 and 1998 in the open primary, not a runoff, with 73% and 64% respectively.  And unlike Landrieu, Breaux’s base is not in Orelans Parish; it is in Acadiana, specifically Acadia Parish.  Moreover, Breaux has overwhelmingly carried what is now the very important, indeed crucial, population center of East Baton Rouge Parish, a feat Mary Landrieu has had much difficulty acheiving, although her 2002 runoff performance is promising. 

Blanco claims a poll is presently in the field, but I am not sure it will convince her to run now that Beaux has indicated a strong interest in the gubernatorial race.  For a Southern Media and Opinion Research poll in January 2007 reported the following:

Republican Jindal leads Blanco, a Democrat, 59 percent to 35 percent, according to a survey of 600 likely voters conducted during the weekend by Southern Media and Opinion Research.

In a three-way race with Democratic Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell, Jindal leads Blanco 58 percent to 31 percent, with Campbell pulling 6 percent.

I am not aware of any legislative feat Blanco has acheived with the state House or the state Senate in the past month, but she has managed to convince Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats to craft legislation to benefit Louisiana.  Blanco has also spent the last month vociferously criticizing Bush in the wake of Brown’s statement that the Bush Administration purposefully undermined Louisiana in order to undercut Blanco’s credibility.

But there are at least three variables we need to consider before we assume Breaux would beat Jindal in the open primary or in a very competitive runoff:  Foster Campbell, John Georges and Walter Boasso.  Foster Campbell, a populist Democrat from North Louisiana who is presently the Public Service Commissioner for one fifth of the state, has a warchest of $750,000, and he plans to run.  But Jindal will be splitting the Republican vote with at least Walter Boasso, a state Senator representing Plaquemines Parish, St. Bernard Parish and parts of St. Tammany Parish, and Orleans Parish businessman John Georges, who has committed $2 million of his own money to his campaign.  Jindal has $2.67 million, and Blanco has $3 million.  Although Breaux has not yet announced, I imagine he will match if not surpass Jindal’s warchest.  We should also keep in mind that Blanco, if she abandons her campaign, will have $3 million to distribute through various channels to Breaux. 

If Breaux chooses to run, this race will become very interesting.  As you can see, Jindal already has viable challenges from two Republicans and two Demcrats, Blanco included.  If Breaux enters, it may be possible Jindal does not even make a runoff, as he will split the Republican vote, particularly the Republican votes of populous Jefferson and St. Tammany Parishes, with a popular state Senator and a wealthy Orleans Parish businessman.  And Foster Campbell will complicate Jindal’s bid in North Louisiana, where Blanco, according to the January poll, still maintains an edge.  John Breaux will only compound the problems Jindal already faces, as Breaux will seriously reduce any support Jindal has in Acadiana, which according the January poll could have been a Jindal stronghold. 

While I am still awaiting Breaux’s entry, I am more optimistic about this race than I was a week ago.  A ticket of Jindal, Georges, Boasso, Breaux and Campbell will make it impossible for Jindal to win the Governor’s seat in 2007.  And I imagine this will make it very difficult for the Louisiana GOP to focus on state House and state Senate seats, as they will have to spend to ensure a Republican, any Republican, makes a runoff with Breaux.

And what of Foster Campell, you may ask?  It is a legitimate question.  Building name recognition in 2007, Campbell can prepare himself for a 2010 race against David Vitter, who is now, according to Maginnis, fashioning himself as another John Breaux.  Perhaps Vitter knows Louisianans are not ready to swallow his callous conservatism.