As you can imagine, I am stunned.
Two potential candidates now are former US Rep. Chris John and Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu.
I apologize for the brevity of the diary, but I desire to read online reaction to Foti’s decision. Here are two sources:
ryan at Daily Kingfish also has an analysis:
Breaux will make his decision in a couple of days.
We shall wait some more.
Crossposted at Daily Kingfish, a Louisiana politics blog by and for Louisiana Democrats
Even though the full results have been made available to the media, the Louisiana GOP refuses to read and to acknowledge a Verne Kennedy poll commissioned by John Georges, Republican candidate for Governor from Metairie. The poll of 600 Louisianans conducted 29 March through 3 April yielded some interesting results. According to the Shreveport Times,
When the poll concentrated only on Jindal, Breaux and Georges, the responses to the question about which candidate the respondent would chose if the election were today were 39 percent for Jindal, 30 percent for Breaux and 14 percent for Georges, with 17 percent uncertain.
And they continue,
In the trial heat between Jindal and Breaux, 49 percent chose Jindal and 36 percent Breaux, with 15 percent undecided.
Jindal and the Louisiana GOP thought Jindal would coast to the Governor’s mansion in October. Jindal has been campaigning throughout the state for months, including making appearances and offering “testimony” in Baptist churches, and the Louisiana GOP daily demonizes every candidate who has announced an intention to run, whether it be Walter Boasso (R-Arabi), John Breaux (D-Crowley) or John Georges, who Roger Villere, Chairman of the Louisiana GOP, calls an “opponent.” Given all this effort on behalf of Jindal by the Louisiana GOP, one would expect Jindal to be a prohibitive favorite, not a mere favorite, especially since Jindal has been behaving as if he is the heir apparent since Blanco announced her intention to not run for reelection. 49%, in other words, is a weak number for someone who is treated as an incumbent both by the media and by his political party.
The following should also serve as a source of aggravation for an already splenetic Louisiana GOP, especially as Breaux, Campbell, Boasso and Georges are yet to engage in full campaigning:
In a trial heat for governor, when voters were read a list of all possible candidates for governor, the preferences were 39 percent for Jindal, 23 percent for Breaux, 10 percent for Georges, 5 percent for Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu, 4 percent for state Treasurer John Kennedy, 2 percent for Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell and 1 percent each for state Sen. Walter Boasso and former Attorney General Richard Ieyoub.
Perhaps 39 percent is the highest Jindal can earn with the present field of candidates in the jungle primary. Yes, Mitch Landrieu, Richard Ieyoub and John Kennedy have not announced and will not announce, but I doubt supporters of John Kennedy and especially Mitch Landrieu and Richard Ieyoub will cast their votes for Jindal. And I imagine Foster Campbell, Walter Boasso, John Georges and John Breaux will expand their bases once they launch their respective campaigns. After all, Breaux has not officially announced, and John Georges, who hails fom Jinda’s Congressional district, will, according to politicsla.com, which requires a subscription,
emphasize his similarities on economic and social issues with Republican frontrunner Congressman Bobby Jindal before drawing distinctions in background and ability. “In July, people will look at that and say, ‘He’s just like Bobby.’ Then we will differentiate,” he said.
For instance: “The difference between Bobby and me is I am a decision maker while he is a policy maker,” he said. “Jindal suffers from the same problem Kathleen Blanco does. He waits to see which way the wind is blowing.”
Boasso will chip away at Jindal’s Republican base from the other end, the end of the reformer, the populist. Here is Boasso’s message:
“It’s the same old people trying to control things,” he said. “They put it out into the public that it was a big consensus. That’s misleading.
“The days when these small groups of insiders determine our future has got to come to an end.”
And Boasso and Georges, both millionaires, will have the money to communicate their respective messages.
Jindal will not have much room to manoeuvre once Boasso and Georges introduce themselves to the public. Moreover, Foster Campbell (D-Bossier City), former state Senator and current Public Service Commissioner for north Louisiana, will mobilize northern Louisianans and others disenchanted with utility companies and oil interests. And complicating this is the base Breaux already has despite the Louisiana GOPs coordinated smear campaign, which includes letters to the editors of The Shreveport Times and The Ouchita Citizen, biased journalism by sympathetic reports, a website and a redundant television ad airing throughout the state of Louisiana.
Piyush “Bobby” may have to accept the 39% of Verne Kennedy’s poll, which probably explains why Roger Villere is now telling reporters he wants to abolish the jungle primary for state races. If you cannot force everyone out of the field in the name of a Jindal victory, then I guess the only option left is to change the election process. Why do Jindal and Villere have such contempt for Louisiana voters and for Louisiana election law?
Everyone here should be aware of the following advertisments on YouTube smearing John Breaux. He has not yet annouced, but the Louisiana Republicans are already prepared to bombard Louisiana citizens with falsehoods and distortions.
Here are the You Tube videos:
This is full of falsehoods. Has anyone ever heard of the Breaux Act, an act that secures millions of dollars every year for coastal restoration and wetland protection projects? And what of David Vitter’s citation of Breaux’s healthcare plan in his proposal to transform the Charity Hospital system of LSU? I can go on and on.
This is just vacuous. And since when is Jindal, who took money from DeLay, Abramoff and former Rep. now lobbyist Livingston?
Jindal used these quotes in 2003, and he still lost to Blanco.
Republican Party of Louisiana video on television:
By the way, Jindal moved from Baton Rouge to Kenner in order to run for Vitter’s former House seat, LA-01. Jindal is the carpetbagger, not John Breaux.
I hope this helps. And let us use the comments to invalidate these claims and to perform opposition research on Piyush “Bobby” Jindal.
In his diary last Thursday, Rob broke the news that troubled incumbent Gov. Kathleen Blanco vowed to run even if former Sen. John Breaux (D) entered the race. Breaux, a strong backer of her 2003 bid, issued a statement of support, saying that she’s “earned the right to run for re-election”. At the time, we speculated that this was Breaux’s way of pulling back from a potential run while allowing Blanco to save face.
However, louisianagirl brings us something pretty eyebrow-raising: a John Breaux For Governor shell website. It’s bare bones right now, and we can’t even be sure if it’s legitimate, although it looks pretty good for what it is.
It’s not much, but it’s enough to stir the embers under the LA-Gov rumor kettle yet again.
Race Tracker: LA-Gov
John Breaux may run, even if Blanco decides to remain in the race. Visit this website for more details, especially if you want Breaux to run:
The Louisiana Democratic Party now has an account with ActBlue for their state legislative races. Visit their fundraising page at this website:
Bobby Jindal, who plans to run for Governor in 2007, is ranked 432 out of 435 in terms of effectiveness in Congress. Visit this website for more details:
Progressive reformer and grassroots activist Deborah Langhoff, who missed the runoff in the special election on 10 March by 89 votes, plans to run for LA-HD 94 this November. Here is an excerpt from New Orleans City Business:
LCRM race role
In the March 10 legislative election in District 94, four pieces of mail attacking leading Democratic candidate Deborah Langhoff arrived the day before Election Day.
The mail was produced by the Louisiana Committee for a Republican Majority, a new organization dedicated to electing a Republican majority in the Louisiana Legislature this fall. LCRM is heavily funded by GOP donors Boysie Bollinger and Joe Canizaro and supported by Sen. David Vitter, R-Metairie.
The mailers “exposed” Langhoff’s liberalism and quoted her as saying “I loathe Bobby Jindal.” Langhoff said the “hit pieces” hurt her vote total and kept her out of the runoff. For that reason, Langhoff will not endorse marketing representative Jeb Bruneau nor attorney Nick Lorusso, the two Republican runoff candidates. She plans to run in the fall against whoever wins the general election March 31.
UPDATE: BLANCO OUT
WWL TV New Orleans writes the following:
Governor Kathleen Blanco has requested television time tonight for a gubernatorial address that will be carried live on Eyewitness News at 6 p.m.. Sources tell Eyewitness News that Blanco will announce she is not seeking re-election.
(Judging by Breaux’s statement, does anyone get the sense that he’s feeling a bit more inclined to sit this one out? – promoted by James L.)
Crossposted to BlueSunbelt.Com the Southern netroots site.
Gov. Kathleen Blanco has signaled she will not drop out of the race for Governor in Louisiana even if former U.S. Senator John Breaux enters the race. Many political analysts see Breaux as possibly the only chance Democrats may have to hold the state’s highest office. GOP Congressman Bobby Jindal has so far been outpolling Blanco by landslide proportions.
Gov. Kathleen Blanco said Wednesday she plans to run for re-election regardless of whether former U.S. Sen. John Breaux jumps into the race.
“My decision is predicated on me and my experience and not on anything that Sen. Breaux and anybody else might be interested in doing,” Blanco said at the State Capitol.
Meanwhile, Breaux, who still is silent on whether or not he is running for governor, issued a statement of support for his fellow Democrat.
“I’ve always said that Gov. Blanco has earned the right to run for re-election. She has a good story to tell the people of our state about how hard she has worked against incredibly difficult circumstances,” Breaux said through his spokesman.
Race Tracker: LA-Gov
(I’m working on what seems to be shaping up to become an all-nighter of a research paper, so please use this thread to discuss the latest goings-on in Louisiana. I’m heartened to hear that Breaux’s legal team believes that “citizenship” isn’t much of an obstacle–and indeed, “citizen” as a legal term is a much broader requirement than “resident”. – promoted by James L.)
1. John Breaux Is A Citizen
Breaux said there’s no question that he meets the state Constitution’s requirement of being a “citizen” of Louisiana for the past five years, even though he changed his voter registration to Maryland in 2005.
“I don’t just own two lots in Crowley. It is my family home. When my mama died, I inherited half of it. My dad lives there. We pay taxes on it. My wife, Lois, owns property in Louisiana,” Breaux said. “I never revoked my citizenship in Louisiana.”
Lawyers have looked at the constitutional requirement and determined he meets the citizenship requirement, Breaux said.
Breaux will announce in the “very near future,” or after he has a discussion with Blanco. Foster Campell will still run, and Jindal’s supporters have hijacked the comments thread attached to the article. But this is my favorite comment:
But his citizenship is not the issue, he said.
“The issues are health care, education and rebuilding. That’s what it is all about,” Breaux said.
2. Mary Landrieu Is Above 50%
GOP Sets Sights on Landrieu
The National Republican Senatorial Committee released a poll yesterday aimed at demonstrating the vulnerability of Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) in her 2008 reelection bid.
Fifty-one percent of the sample said they would vote to reelect Landrieu and 42 percent said they would consider someone new — a sign, according to pollster Glen Bolger, that Landrieu is a “vulnerable Democratic incumbent.”
Although Bolger writes that “when voters are given a choice between Landrieu and a Republican they know, they invariably choose the Republican,” the poll memo includes data for only one statewide head-to-head matchup: Rep. Bobby Jindal (R-La.), who is running for governor this year, led Landrieu by 55 percent to 39 percent. No matchup between Landrieu and Rep. Richard H. Baker (La.) — the Republicans’ preferred candidate — is mentioned in the memo.
Landrieu won her seat in 1996 by 5,788 votes and was reelected in 2002 with 52 percent of the vote.
One problem to consider is the NRSC’s decision to poll Landrieu against Jindal, especially as Breaux is still considering a gubernatorial bid. Another is the inherent bias of this Republican poll: Is Landrieu more popular than the results claim? And would Jindal really have a chance if Breaux defeats him in 2007? And lastly, is Landrieu as vulnerable as the RSCC claims when over 50% of Louisianans want her reelected?
Race Tracker: LA-Sen
That’s the question that has been on my mind since having these dizzying special election results seared into my cortex last weekend:
On Saturday, February 24, there were three special elections for vacancies in the Louisiana House of Representatives. All three seats were previously held by Democrats, and Democrats easily held on to two of these seats by capturing both run-off slots. This was no surprise, as both of these retained seats were African-American majority districts. The other seat, HD01, however, was not a sure thing for Democrats. Louisianagirl, in her coverage last weekend, wrote:
Although it was previously held by a Democrat named Roy “Hoppy” Hopkins, who recently died of cancer, this open seat can be won by either party. Indeed, the district has a tendency to vote for Republicans in federal races: John Kerry only received 32.28% of the vote in 2004; Kathleen Blanco received 44.15% of the vote in 2003; and Mary Landrieu received approximately 45.34% of the vote in 2002. A populist Democrat who understand agricultural and infrastructural issues can win in this district that includes rural Caddo and Bossier Parishes, but it will be a difficult seat for Democrats to hold in November.
And here’s what she had to say about what was at stake:
LA-HD1 is what I consider to be a bellwether race. If we hold it, we will hold the Louisiana House in November. If we lose it, then we need to prepare ourselves for the fight of our political lives in November. Watch the returns of this race, as this race will determine how hard Louisiana Democrats will have to fight if they want to hold on to their majorities in the state legislature.
So let’s put it all on the table: at a combined 27% of the vote, the two Democratic candidates in this special election did even worse than John Kerry’s performance in the district in 2004. When the locals can’t break Kerry’s benchmark, you know that we’ve written a new definition for “rock bottom” in Louisiana.
So what happened? By the looks of it, Republicans showed up ready to wrestle this seat to the ground, and Democrats simply did not. Their candidate, “Jim” Morris, as a Caddo Parish Commissioner, had a high profile in the local government, while Hollier was something of an unknown. Based on his experience alone, Morris easily snatched up the endorsement of the Shreveport Times, and the rest is written on the wall. By not putting forth a proven candidate and funneling the appropriate resources to this race, the Louisiana Democratic Party is sending signals of apathy and resignation, rather than the do-or-die, balls-to-the-wall ethos that they will need to exhibit in order to come out of 2007 alive.
Having a drag like Gov. Kathleen Blanco at the top of the ticket this year would be bad enough for the Democratic majorities in the state legislature, but Louisiana Democrats will have to deal with another vulnerability: term limits. As louisianagirl wrote in her authoritative diary on the subject, half of the 60 incumbent Democrats in the Louisiana House will face mandatory retirement after this year. With only 53 seats needed to obtain control of the House, that leaves a lot of room for an aggressive, district-by-district challenge by a renewed Louisiana GOP in coordination with a strong top of the ticket challenge to Gov. Blanco.
The stakes of this are fairly high. Without friendly control of the LA legislature, Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon could see his U.S. House district, and his job security, go up in smoke due to creative redistricting by state Republicans. On the other hand, if Democrats controlled the redistricting levers, Louisiana’s congressional delegation will almost assuredly lose at least one Republican member of the House in 2012, after the census readjusts the state’s representation to account for population loss.
Additionally, how does ceding certain “swing” districts to the Republicans bode for Democrats’ ability to retain the offices of Gov. Kathleen Blanco and Sen. Mary Landrieu? Not well, I would argue.
If the Louisiana Democratic Party is serious about staying a relevant political force in the state after November, it has to aggressively defend these seats. With the disturbing revelation that our one potential savior at the top of the ballot, former Senator John Breaux, is likely ineligible to run for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination after he registered to vote in Maryland after he retired in 2005, this defense is all the more crucial. Just as the New York GOP put everything into holding the State Senate in a wave year, the Louisiana Democratic Party should be preparing something similar for the legislature.
The Louisiana Democratic Party has a shot at redemption coming up very quickly–the March 10th special election for the 94th House District. Louisianagirl contends that, with candidate Deborah Langhoff at the helm, this is a legitimate pick-up opportunity for Team Blue–one of only a precious few that Louisiana Democrats will see during this cycle. Is the Louisiana Democratic Party doing all that it can to help her out? Given what pitiful lengths they went to keep the 1st District competitive, I almost dread to hear the answer.
Here is some interesting news from the Cook Political Report:
February 16, 2007
Breaking News: Former Democratic Sen. John Breaux is seriously considering a bid for Governor of Louisiana. John Maginnis, editor of the highly regarded Louisiana Political Fax Weekly, initially reported the news this morning, and the Cook Political Report has independently verified that it is true. Apparently Democratic Gov. Kathleen Blanco has privately indicated a willingness to step aside if Breaux, or possibly another Democrat, such as Rep. Charlie Melancon, would run instead.
None of this is a done deal, but Breaux is serious, and his candidacy would change the face of the race for Democrats.
John Maginnis, the Republican operative Cook Political Report cites in their breaking report, writes the following:
Breaux Eyes Governor’s Race
Former Sen. John Breaux has told sources he is “very interested” in running for governor if Kathleen Blanco doesn’t. T. he Fax Weekly spoke to three individuals who say Breaux directly told them of his renewed interest during Washington Mardi Gras.
“This is the most interested I’ve seen him than all the other b.s. we’ve been through,” said a friend of the 61-year-old ex-senator turned high-powered Washington lobbyist. He toyed with campaigning for governor in 2003 and for re-election in 2004, holding the political community and other campaigns in suspense until he announced he would not run.
News of Breaux’s interest both heartens Democrats and puts pressure on Blanco to make her decision soon. The governor is said to have a poll in the field.
If Cook Political Report cites Maginnis, I believe this is news to be taken very seriously. For Breaux, as many here already know, won his reelection bids for his US Senate seat in 1992 and 1998 in the open primary, not a runoff, with 73% and 64% respectively. And unlike Landrieu, Breaux’s base is not in Orelans Parish; it is in Acadiana, specifically Acadia Parish. Moreover, Breaux has overwhelmingly carried what is now the very important, indeed crucial, population center of East Baton Rouge Parish, a feat Mary Landrieu has had much difficulty acheiving, although her 2002 runoff performance is promising.
Blanco claims a poll is presently in the field, but I am not sure it will convince her to run now that Beaux has indicated a strong interest in the gubernatorial race. For a Southern Media and Opinion Research poll in January 2007 reported the following:
Republican Jindal leads Blanco, a Democrat, 59 percent to 35 percent, according to a survey of 600 likely voters conducted during the weekend by Southern Media and Opinion Research.
In a three-way race with Democratic Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell, Jindal leads Blanco 58 percent to 31 percent, with Campbell pulling 6 percent.
I am not aware of any legislative feat Blanco has acheived with the state House or the state Senate in the past month, but she has managed to convince Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats to craft legislation to benefit Louisiana. Blanco has also spent the last month vociferously criticizing Bush in the wake of Brown’s statement that the Bush Administration purposefully undermined Louisiana in order to undercut Blanco’s credibility.
But there are at least three variables we need to consider before we assume Breaux would beat Jindal in the open primary or in a very competitive runoff: Foster Campbell, John Georges and Walter Boasso. Foster Campbell, a populist Democrat from North Louisiana who is presently the Public Service Commissioner for one fifth of the state, has a warchest of $750,000, and he plans to run. But Jindal will be splitting the Republican vote with at least Walter Boasso, a state Senator representing Plaquemines Parish, St. Bernard Parish and parts of St. Tammany Parish, and Orleans Parish businessman John Georges, who has committed $2 million of his own money to his campaign. Jindal has $2.67 million, and Blanco has $3 million. Although Breaux has not yet announced, I imagine he will match if not surpass Jindal’s warchest. We should also keep in mind that Blanco, if she abandons her campaign, will have $3 million to distribute through various channels to Breaux.
If Breaux chooses to run, this race will become very interesting. As you can see, Jindal already has viable challenges from two Republicans and two Demcrats, Blanco included. If Breaux enters, it may be possible Jindal does not even make a runoff, as he will split the Republican vote, particularly the Republican votes of populous Jefferson and St. Tammany Parishes, with a popular state Senator and a wealthy Orleans Parish businessman. And Foster Campbell will complicate Jindal’s bid in North Louisiana, where Blanco, according to the January poll, still maintains an edge. John Breaux will only compound the problems Jindal already faces, as Breaux will seriously reduce any support Jindal has in Acadiana, which according the January poll could have been a Jindal stronghold.
While I am still awaiting Breaux’s entry, I am more optimistic about this race than I was a week ago. A ticket of Jindal, Georges, Boasso, Breaux and Campbell will make it impossible for Jindal to win the Governor’s seat in 2007. And I imagine this will make it very difficult for the Louisiana GOP to focus on state House and state Senate seats, as they will have to spend to ensure a Republican, any Republican, makes a runoff with Breaux.
And what of Foster Campell, you may ask? It is a legitimate question. Building name recognition in 2007, Campbell can prepare himself for a 2010 race against David Vitter, who is now, according to Maginnis, fashioning himself as another John Breaux. Perhaps Vitter knows Louisianans are not ready to swallow his callous conservatism.