Author: antoni

1. Young (AK) – Young is being hit by scandal and his campaign war chest is going mostly to attorney fees.  While it is a three-way primary race, Lt. Gov. Parnell, an endorsement of popular Gov. Palin, spells absolute trouble for Young.  Should Parnell win and defeat Young, then expect this seat to become less likely for a Democratic pickup.  Outlook: Young loses.

2. Broun (GA) – This is a battle between who is more conservative, similar to the battle Cannon lost in Utah.  Broun defeated the establishment candidate in a special election.  Many attribute this victory to cross-over Democratic voters from more liberal areas, such as Athens.  Fleming is more of a “nut” than Broun and the cross-over appeal voters will not be able to rescue Broun this round.  Outlook: Broun loses.

3. Jefferson (LA) – He has been scandal plagued for eternity.  Even with scandal, Jefferson has managed to prevail in the past.  A crowded primary would be considered beneficial to him.  However, at a time when incumbents on both sides are being thrown out or retiring “voluntarily” there is no doubt that Jefferson is in trouble.  Outlook: Jefferson loses.

4. Kilpatrick (MI) – Detroit is souring over the Kilpatricks, more the son than the mother.  Had she simply run as Carolyn Cheeks she would be safer.  A three-way primary benefits Kilpatrick, yet Waters is viewed as the more serious candidate and Scott as a mere placement candidate meant to split votes.  Coincidentally, Kilpatrick defeated a fellow incumbent in a 1996 primary to win this seat.  That fellow Democrat now serves on the Detroit City Council, the same group that has been battling her son.  Deja-vu has returned.  Kilpatrick is in deep trouble.  Outlook: Too Close to Call.

5. Cohen (TN) – He represents a majority African-American district, yet he is Jewish and white.  He is being challenged by Tinker, an African-American who is supported by some religious leaders who believe that only a fellow African-American can represent other African-Americans (a joke at best).  A crowded primary with fellow African-Americans, including Tinker, assisted Cohen in winning this seat last election.  Most polls show Cohen with a decent favorability rating and he endorsed Obama early on.  Outlook: Leans Cohen.

6. Lamborn (CO) – This is a three-way primary that was expected to be a two-way primary between “wacko” Lamborn and whoever polled best between Crank and Rayburn.  Polls indicated Crank performed best against Lamborn, yet Rayburn decided that any deal made between him and Crank was not valid.  As a result, a three-way primary continues to exist.  This is not only a conservative district, yet also a military district and Lamborn can tout his seat on the Armed Services.  A seat there does indeed matter here.  Unlike Musgrave, Lamborn has also maintained a lower profile.  Outlook: Likely Lamborn

7. Barrow (GA) – This is another district that is a little less than 50% African-American.  Barrow is a conservative Southern Democrat.  His opponent is State Senator Thomas.  She is more of a liberal Southern Democrat, yet also African-American.  A low turount benefits Barrow.  He also has proven a winning streak against challenging Republicans.  Outlook: Likely Barrow.

8. Cazayoux (LA) – A third district with a sizeable African-American population.  Should state representative Michael Jackson challenge Cazayoux in a primary, then it may become nasty.  Should this occur then it may seriously hurt Cazayoux with the African-American base of this district (Jackson is African-American).  Republicans may also find themselves in a nasty primary as well.  Should Jackson challenge Cazayoux, which is unlikely, then expect Cazayoux to have an edge.  Outlook: Likely Cazayoux.

9. Blackburn (TN) – Big Oil’s darling is having her conservative credentials questioned.  While Leatherwood has little chance of actually defeating Blackburn, he has managed to catch her off guard for the time being.  Outlook: Safe Blackburn.

10. There really is no “stand out” for number ten, yet there are three races worth watching:

Keller (FL) – If Keller performs low against an ultra-conservative and underfunded opponent, then this Orlando based seat, which has been treading more Democratic since Keller entered office with Bush, could be a serious Democratic pickup come November.

David Davis (TN) – Davis is a freshman facing two opponents from 2006.  Roe is the more challenging of the two, he is a mayor, physician, and veteran (executive, health care, and military experience).  Not a bad mix for a conservative district.

Baird (WA) – Baird initially oppossed the war in Iraq and now has come to support it.  This transformation may not play well in his liberal district.  His opponent is a peace candidate, who not well funded, may be able to run a grass roots campaign and succeed.  

**Please note.  I am a moderate Democrat and not a liberal.**

Of the 34 Senate seats up for re-election in 2010, nine can be considered safe for the time being.  These seats are:

MD – Mikulski (Likely retirement with Congressman Van Hollen receiving the Dem nomination).

IL – Obama (Should he win the presidency, his appointed successor should be someone who can win with moderates (Congresswoman Bean).  Should he not be elected president, Obama would be a safe bet for re-election.

AL – Shelby (Artur Davis may be interested in this race, but two things should come to mind: he represents a gerrymandered district and this is the Deep South).

IN – Bayh is simply popular at home.

ID – Crapo is representing a red state.

OR – Wyden is representing a really blue state.

NY – Schumer can raise money and win voters easily (The only possible sacrificial lamb, willing to go willingly, would be Peter King of Long Island, realizing that the Democrats will be redistricing him into more “immigrant friendly” territory come 2011 – one other Republican will also have the honor of being redistricted, due to New York projected to lose two congressional seats come 2010.  The question is not if Democrats will win the State Senate this year, yet more likely how many seats will they actually win).

SC – Demint (I encourage anyone to visit upstate where churches are the size of shopping malls.  This explains why Republicans still run the show here).

AK – Murkowski (Should the team of Young and Stevens lose, as expected, she will quickly join the reform side of the Alaskan Republican Party).

Now, the interesting match-ups (in no particular order):

NH – Gregg vs. Lynch (Gregg is too conservative for the state and Lynch is more popular.  Since the Old Man of the Mountain collapsed in 2003 the New Hampshire Republican Party has collapsed as well.  This is one of three states – Colorado and Virginia being the other – that have gone from solid red to purplish blue).  Forecast: Dem Pickup

AR – Lincoln vs. Huckabee (Both are popular, yet Huckabee has a larger profile.  Should Huckabee join the McCain team as VP and win, then Lincoln is safe.  Should that not occur then this could be one of the more interesting races of 2010).  Forecast: Toss Up

CA – Boxer vs. Issa (She’s liberal.  He’s overly conservative.  California is a split of both, however the populated areas are more liberal, thereby benefiting any Democrat.  Schwarzenegger is a failed governor and Dreir would be forced out of the closet, therefore Issa would be the most likely to challenge Boxer.  He has money, yet he also has a miserable voting record and may rightfully be considered one of the worst members of Congress).  Forecast: Safe Dem

IA – Vilsack vs. King (Grassley may retire for two reasons: being in the minority and being in a party dominated by Southern radicals.  Vilsack passed on running for president and King passed on running for Senate against Harkin.  King realizes trouble is on the horizon.  The state is expected to lose a congressional district in 2010 and all expect that King and Latham will find themselves battling eachother.  Rather than battle a fellow Republican, King may decide to continue his anti-immigration battle cry on the statewide level.  A certain loss indeed).  Forecast: Dem Pickup (if Grassley retires)

OK – Coburn vs. Henry (The fact is that there are more Democrats than Republicans statewide, yet the state is bright red in choosing its presidential candidates.  Should Henry challenge Coburn this will be a top tier race with Henry holding a slight advantage).  Forecast: Dem Pickup

FL – Martinez vs. Sink (Martinez is in trouble.  In fact, crossover non-Cuban Hispanic voters were partially responsible for his narrow victory last time.  Democrats realize that  success lies in the I-4 corridor (Daytona Beach-Orlando-Tampa area) where voters are more moderate than the conservative north – Jacksonville and Panhandle and the liberal south – Broward and Palm Beach.  Alex Sink, the state CFO, and wife of Bill McBride, a former Democratic candidate for governor, fits the perfect profile).  Forecast: Dem Pickup

VT – Douglas vs. Welch (Leahy may retire, yet only if Obama is elected.  Don’t expect Leahy to retire if McCain wins, he definately would want to be fully involved in fighting to keep a conservative from being appointed to the Supreme Court.  Should Leahy retire a match up between Governor Douglas, a Repubocrat in a dark blue state vs. Congressman Welch would be an interesting fight).  Forecast: Lean Dem

UT – Bishop vs. Matheson (Bennett will likely retire for reasons similar to Grassley.  This is the most conservative state in the nation.  However, Matheson has proven he can win in dark red territory and much of the state’s growth is occurring in his district.  Yet, this is Utah after all).  Forecast: Lean Rep

HI – Lingle vs. Abercrombie (Inouye is likely to retire.  Lingle is a popular Republican – yes they do exist in Hawaii, yet in small numbers.  Abercrombie has represented most of Oahu in the House.  There is no doubt that he wants to move to the Senate and he has waited around patiently, unlike former Congressman Case).  Forecast: Toss Up

NC – Burr vs. McIntyre (The best way to describe Burr’s tenure would be an utter failure and polls agree.  McIntyre who represents a mainly rural agricultural district and retains a conservative voting record, would be the best challenge to Burr.  Should this occur consider Burr endangered).  Forecast: Dem Pickup

CO – Salazar vs. Tancredo (Anyone who thinks that “wingnut” Tancredo was retiring is mistaken.  Tancredo is looking for higher office: Governor or Senate.  His failed presidential bid was intended to raise his profile and his anti-immigration rhetoric, yet it was an utter disaster at best.  Sec. of State Coffman is running for Tancredo’s open seat and would be unlikely to change chairs after two years.  The only other two Republicans that come to mind would be “wingnuts” Lamborn and Musgrave.  Colorado’s entire Republican delegation are “wingnuts” and would be serious underdogs to Salazar).  Forecast: Safe Dem

OH – Voinovich vs. Ryan (Can also be considered the future vs. the past, old vs. young, old school vs. new school, etc.  Ryan presents a serious challenge to Voinovich.  Should the seats of Pryce, Chabot, Schmidt, and Regula fall into Democratic hands, then expect Voinovich to call an early retirement.  Maybe Boehner, after a Republican coup d’etat, may want to try his hands at dispatching Ryan – highly unlikely, but a good way into early retirement after a terrible tenure as Republican leader).  Forecast: Dem Pickup

WA – Murray vs. Reichert (Reichert is a moderate and can bring in moderate voters along with the conservative eastern part of the state.  However, Murray will be in the majority party and be able to deliver an abundance of resources into the state, including into Walla Walla and Wenatchee.  Conservative no longer).  Forecast: Safe Dem

KY – Chandler vs. Davis (Bunning says he is running for re-election.  The GOP will change his mind fairly quickly after the post-election losses of 2008.  Chandler is popular and known statewide.  He represents a conservative rural district.  Davis represents a moderate to conservative suburban district.  Rural vs. suburban in Kentucky.  Rural wins).  Forecast: Dem Pickup

AZ – Napolitano vs. Flake (If McCain wins she gets to choose his Republican successor.  The weakest candidate would be Russell Pearce, his xenophobia and radical views would make him an easy defeat.  Should McCain not win the presidency, expect him to resign, unlike Kerry.  Even if he did not resign, a radical such as Pearce, would most certainly force him into a primary.  McCain would not want to face a similar defeat as McGovern – two presidential defeats only to face further embarrasment in having your Senate seat taken.  Flake is conservative, but is also one of the more respected members of Congress.  While many would give the edge to Napolitano, this is a race that could be competitive once voters become familiar with Flake.  Forecast: Lean Dem  

CT – Shays vs. Blumenthal (Dodd is likely to retire.  Blumenthal has always been considered a gubernatorial candidate, yet passed up every opportunity.  Both understand that it is moderate independents and not liberal Democrats that determine statewide victors.  Shays represents the cities of Stamford and Norwalk, both of which he, Rell, and Lieberman won.  Blumenthal resides in Greenwich, yet him and Shays appear to have a friendly working relationship, therefore making a race against eachother unlikely.  Republican contenders in place of Shays would be US Attorney Kevin O’Connor, a Bush appointee and someone who worked closely with Alberto Gonzales, or Lt. Gov. Fedele, a resident of Stamford).  Forecast: Likely Dem

ND – Dorgan vs. Hoeven (Hoeven passed up an opportunity to challenge Conrad this year.  He is popular statewide and would have been a formible challenge.  Should he run against Dorgan this would be a closely watched race).  Forecast: Toss Up    

LA – Alexander vs. Melancon (Vitter, the candidate of family values, will be presented with three options: voluntary retirement, a challenging primary, or a general election defeat.  Neither are a winning strategy, yet if Melancon is the Democratic nominee, the centrist Democrat would have broad appeal throughout the conservative areas of the state.  Alexander, the former Democrat, would find it difficult to differentiate himself from the more challenging Melancon).  Forecast: Dem Pickup

WI – Feingold vs. Ryan (Feingold is liberal.  Ryan is conservative.  Ryan is a rising star in the Republican Party, at least what is left of the party.  Wisconsin is not necessarily a blue state and many are not as liberal as Feingold.  Ryan would be a formible opponent, yet Feingold would be able to exploit his majority status.  This is a race that could heat up in the end).  Forecast: Likely Dem

GA – Isakson vs. Marshall (Isakson wanted to run for Governor, then saw the polls and decided not to.  The same polls show that he is not necessarily a popular Senator.  Congressman Marshall represents a Republican district and would be able to win over Republicans elsewhere throughout the state.  Isakson could be in trouble, even in peachy Georgia).  Forecast: Toss Up

KS – Sebelius vs. Tiahrt (Brownback has already announced that he’s retiring.  Sebelius may represent a red state, yet she is extremely popular, and has assisted the Republican Party with its ongoing implosion.  Congressman Tiahrt or Moran could challenge Sebelius, yet both would be at a great disadvantage.  Forecast: Dem Pickup

SD – Rounds vs. Herseth (Thune may run for Governor.  Rounds and Herseth are both popular and would make this an extremely tight race.  Should Thune pass up a run for governorship, then expect this seat to remain in Republican hands.  Should it be a Rounds vs. Herseth match then a close race would be on the horizon).  Forecast: Safe Rep/Toss Up

TX – Dewhurst vs. Lampson (Hutchinson is expected to run for Governor.  If Hutchinson resigns early, then expect Lt. Gov. Dewhurst to be appointed to the seat, rather than a drawn out primary costing the Republican ambitions in retaining the governorship.  Lampson, a conservative Democrat, would have cross-over appeal.  A win in November would be a guarantee that he could win on the state level.  Other Democrats with cross-over appeal who have potential would be Congressmen Chet Edwards, Jim Turner, or Martin Frost.  All have substantial funds for any future race.  Forecast: Likely Rep

PA – Rendell vs. Gerlach (Specter most likely will retire.  If he does not retire, then expect it to be a Schwartz vs. Specter race, Rendell will not challenge Specter due to their close relationship.  Should Specter retire then expect Rendell to be the top recruit on the Democratic side.  Congressman Gerlach or Dent could challenge Rendell, yet both would be at a serious disadvantage.  Former Republican strongholds, Montgomery and Bucks Counties, are now majority Democratic.  A Montgomery County race, Schwartz vs. Gerlach, would be the most interesting race of all).  Forecast: Dem Pickup

MO – Bond vs. Robin Carnahan (Missouri is a middle of the road state, ultra conservative in Springfield and liberal in Saint Louis.  Sec. of State Robin Carnahan could put the family name to good use and continue the winning trend – her father was governor, mother was US Senator, and brother is a current congressman.  Should she challenge Bond, then expect an extremely close race.  Forecast: Toss Up

NV – Reid vs. Porter (Reid may be Majority Leader, yet his popularity at home is weak.  However he is more popular than current Governor Gibbons, if that provides any consolation.  Congressman Porter is facing a tight re-election this year and he is fully aware that Reid provided assistance in recruiting Titus as a strong challenger.  Porter will be seeking revenge, win or lose.  With the current ongoing Gibbons scandal expect the state GOP to take a little beating).  Forecast: Lean Dem

Here’s the first tier, current Republican seats most likely to switch Democratic (ranked based on likelihood of switching):

1. Virginia

2. New Mexico

3. Alaska

4. New Hampshire

5. Colorado

Democrats currently have a 51 seat majority in the current Senate (this includes the Lieberman factor).  Assuming, that Lieberman remains in the Democratic caucus, which is likely, this leaves Democrats four seats short of sixty.

The second tier of competitive seats (ranked based on competiveness):

1. Mississippi

2. Oregon

3. North Carolina

The third tier of competitive seats (ranked based on competiveness):

1. Kansas

2. Kentucky

3. Texas

4. Georgia

Some may ask why Kansas would be the most competitive of this list and the answer is simple (a split between moderate and conservative Republicans).  Run as a moderate anything in Kansas and you can win.

Kentucky is the next most competitive because it’s hard for McConnell to run from Bush, especially when his wife is one of a handful that can dreadfully say, “I survived eight years of George Bush, and helped shape a failed agenda.”  Of course, McConnell could challenge his wife on this notion and say he helped push it through, yet why would he want to take credit where credit is deserved.  

Texas and Georgia become competitive mostly due to demographics, yet both also feature lackluster incumbents.

Democrats should strategize on winning two seats in the second tier and one in the third tier (Kansas is an inexpenvie media market compared to the other three states).  

Finally, there is the fourth tier, convincing a Republican incumbent to become a Democrat.  Ranked below is the likelihood of a Republican switching to the Democrats should it be necessary to guarantee a 60 seat majority (ranked based on likelihood of switching parties):

1. Specter (PA) – Conservative hate him and he hates them.  Re-election?  What re-election?

2. Collins (ME) – This is where Lieberman can come into play.  Only he seems to hold the key into bringing her over.

3. McCain (AZ) – If he loses the general election due to conservatives, then leaving the party in its entirety would be a good bye gift of sorts.

4. Smith (OR) – If he is re-elected due to moderates and independents, rather than conservatives, then he may decide that the Democrats are the party of choice.  He would also have two new colleagues (aka: second cousins) to lead his way into the party.

5. Coleman (MN) – This state is treading more and more Democratic.  Coleman may decide it’s time to come back home where he started.

6. Snowe (ME) – Highly unlikely that she would switch, yet if Shays and Sununu are defeated, that may serve as an early notice of further Republican erosion in New England (even in the moderate of form).

7. Graham (SC) – Conservative hate him and presented him with what was considered a “formible” primary opponent (Graham easily stomped him, winning every count statewide except Greenville).  Consider Graham only if he’s presented with a chairmanship (aka: Armed Services).

8. Voinovich (OH) – If three or more Republican seats in Ohio flip, then expect this to be a second notice that Ohio is no longer red.

9. Murkowski (AK) – Her father was a disaster and now if the last half of the trio (Young and Stevens) are defeated then she will no longer have to answer to a higher authority.  Free at last.

10. Martinez (FL) – If he see’s the Republican Party being overtaken by radicals targeting Hispanics (aka: illegal immigrants), then it could convince him that the Republican Party is a party of hate (a switch would still guarantee him the Republican Cuban voters, even as a Democrat).

Now, the list does leave out four races that were seen as promising early on (yet there is no point for the DSCC to overplay their field):

1. Oklahoma – The likelihood is that Inhofe will prevail.

2. Nebraska – Johanns will be a moderate like Hagel, yet just not as moderate.

3. Minnesota – Both Franken and Ciresi are in short terrible candidates with extreme flaws.

4. Maine – Allen is stuggling to battle against someone who’s voting almost identical to him.  Unlike Rhode Island, where there was an outsider (Whitehouse) versus an insider (Chafee), Maine is a battle between two insiders.