Author: bushy08

Finally the DCCC has caught on with Ric Keller and its starting to spend heavy here (a $250K media buy).

Some more buys today:

The DCCC has also increased spending against Mario Diaz-Balart (a $360K media buy).

Like his brother, Lincoln Diaz-Balart got another $360K media buy thrown against him.

Families First in California is going after Joe Baca, but it is a large waste of money on their part.

Planned Parenthood also dumped $20K against McClintock in California.  The DCCC has dumped $446K against McClintock today.

Musgrave is getting finished off with a $360K media buy against her.

Shadegg was also rewarded with a $480K media buy.

The DCCC has been using social security privitization against many Republicans and with the instability in the stock market the issue is ripe for attack.  Here’s a few ads targeting Republicans and supporting Democrats:

Bill Cassidy (LA-6): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…

Pete Olson (TX-22): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…

Chris Lee (NY-26): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…

Travelin Tom McClintock (CA-4): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…

Diaz-Balarts (FL-21 and FL-25): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…

Jay Love (AL-2): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…

Shelley Moore Capito (WV-2): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…

Nancy Boyda (KS-2): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…

Michelle Bachmann (MN-6): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…

Paul Kanjorski (PA-11): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…

Headline reads: “An Important Message from Congressman Lungren Regarding the Sacramento County Republican Website.”

Lungren is a Sacramento area Republican who lives in a district with one of the nation’s highest foreclosure rates.  The 3rd district also has the slimmest voter registration separation between Democrats and Republicans.  This week Lungren came out and criticized his own party.  Wow!!!  Republicans showing hate toward fellow Republicans.  Say it’s isn’t TRUE.

Why did Lungren criticize the Sacramento County GOP?  They ran a photo on their website depicting Osama on the left and Obama on the right with the caption reading: “The only difference between Osama and Obama is BS.

Lungren realized he had to come out swiftly against his own party, otherwise he would fall into the Bachmann pit.

Scott Garrett, realizing his seat is in deep risk, has come out with bombs falling..literally.  He has blasted Denis Shulman, a Jewish rabbi, in a recent ad.  The ad shows Shulman’s photo with that of Iran’s president.  It also states that Shulman favors driver licenses for illegals.  Interesting, the Republicans can’t tell the difference between terrorists and illegals or maybe it is convenient for them to classify illegals (aka: Hispanics) as terrorists.  The social conservative agenda will most certainly backfire on Garrett.  Shulman has been attacking Garrett relentlessly, dubbing him as corrupt and time to fire Scott Garrett.  I already see Garrett heading for the exit, especially given that the financial crisis is hitting this district hard.  This is the Nancy Johnson ad of this cycle indeed and I see it will backfire on Garrett.  Here is an ad from Shulman classifying Garrett as corrupt: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v… and now Garrett’s most recent terrorism fear ad: http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

While still in New Jersey, let’s ad Rob Andrews to a race to watch on election night.  The major newspapers in the district have endorsed the Republican opponent, classifying him as a RINO.  The reason is plainly clear.  Andrews filed for a Senate run at the last minute and placed his wife as his replacement.  He then lost the Senate primary and vowed that he would not seek to reclaim his seat.  In the end Andrews did just that.  He is now being classified as dishonest and undeserving to be re-elected.  While Democrats in North NJ would enjoy to see Andrews defeated the likelihood is that this will not occur.

Talking about fear tactics.  Tom Feeney has gone on the offensive with his social issue agenda.  Just like Garrett he seeks to link terrorists and illegal immigrants as one in the same, stating that Suzanne Kosmas favors driver licenses for illegals.  Feeney already understands that his zero chance of winning.  If Seminole County goes for Kosmas, then Feeney can go to bed very early.

Finally, ever since Roy Carter released this ad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v… Virgina “Nut” Foxx’s numbers have shown a steady decline.  Carter has been running a grassroots campaign and this ad is one of the best of the cycle.  It will certainly motivate veterans and women to get Foxx out of the hen house.

Finally, let’s look at some of the most endangered Republicans and realize they share one common bond: social conservatives.  Musgrave, Goode, Feeney, Keller, Garrett, Foxx, Bachmann, Kuhl, Shadegg, Bilbray, Rohrabacher, Brown, Sali, Walberg, Graves, Terry, McHenry, Schmidt, and Culberson.

It was only a matter of time before the obstructionists would pay and this is their year.  However, it took the mass eviction of a dozen moderate GOP’ers before the public realized that they evicted the wrong people.  However, an eviction is an eviction either way.  2008 is the year of social conservatives being thrown overboard.  Finally!!

Tom Cole is losing some friends in Washington.  Too bad for the incumbents being left behind.  Here they are:

Chris Shays and Mark Kirk, two of the last remaining moderates in the GOP, have been told to fight it out themselves.  Both are expected to lose at this point.  Shays seem to had a slim chance, yet that has now become unlikely.  Relative unknown Jim Himes has brought the race even and Shays has been losing support in his base, the McSuburbs of New York City.  The last Republican in New England is headed for defeat.

Randy Kuhl and Jon Porter have received mediocre funding from their party, yet not enough to survive.  Both are heading for the exit door.

Only months ago Republicans were begging for John Shadegg to unretire and he did.  He must now wonder why he gave in to the pressure.  The NRCC has provided no funding and DCCC spending has been so massive that it appears too late for the NRCC to step in for the save.  Shadegg is certainly going down big.

In a quest to save its ideologues, Republicans have overlooked Mark Souder.  Democrats continue to spend against Souder and this spending should be sufficient in evicting Souder from this seat.

Two other Republicans have become extremely endangered: Lincoln Diaz-Balart and Jean Schmidt.  Republican (publicly unreleased) polls show them both behind their challengers.  An infusion of recent spending on behalf of both confirms such.  However, Republicans have also uncovered what many polls have indicated, Paul Kanjorski is heading for defeat.

Listed below are the 53 House races where the DCCC and NRCC, along with their respective ideological partners, have spent money.  The races are listed in order of most spending to least spending.  Totals only include actual mailing and advertisement costs made between Oct. 1st and Oct. 17th.  

The list shows some very interesting information, including the Republicans effort to save Lincoln “Suitcase” Diaz-Balart while ignoring the plight of Shadegg.  Furthermore, Chabot appears to be to the Republicans what Kanjorski has been to the Democrats.  Several incumbents have simply been left to fend for themselves, including three moderates: Shays, Kirk, and Reichert.  Expect Kirk and Reichert to be defeated, while Shays may survive, yet narrowly.  

Republicans are spending heaviest against Kagan and Shea-Porter.  They are also fighting very hard for NJ 3rd.  Kratovil and Kryzan look promising in their Republican leaning districts.  Boswell, who had lackluster fundraising early on, now appears likely to pull this one off.  Baker will have an uphill climb, yet if voters come out based on economic and not social issues, then she may have a chance.  Half of Democratic ads and mailing are in support of a candidate and another half in oppossition, whereas 100% of Republican ads and mailing are in opposition.  Obviously Republicans will succeed in turning off independents with their negative mailings.  The best thing for Republicans has been Tom Cole and we should all be grateful.  Sending him a box full of chocolates and thank you cards may be necessary post-devastation to the Republicans.

I predict that almost every Republican on here will be defeated.  Republicans simply cannot keep track with Democrats or other independent groups expenditures against Republican candidates.

Republicans have initiated polling on the following races: Andal, Barletta, Bradley, Cassidy, Chabot, Lincoln Diaz-Balart, Drake, English, Graves, Kuhl, Leutkemeyer, Musgrave, Olson, Parker, Reichert, Sali, and Schmidt.

Spending, or lack of, demonstrates Republicans have abandoned the following Republican seats: Feeney, Knollenberg, Kirk, Open Seat AZ 1, Open Seat IL 11, Open Seat MD 1, Open Seat MN 3, Open Seat NJ 7, Open Seat NM 1, Open Seat NM 2, Open Seat NC 8, Open Seat OH 16, Open Seat VA 11, Porter, Shays, and Young.

(All of these seats, except Shays, should be guaranteed to flip).

Additional Republicans seats receiving no funding, yet being contested by Democrats are: Mario Diaz-Balart, Open Seat CA 4, Open Seat KY 2, Goode, Shadegg, Souder, and Terry.  If the NRCC does not move in this week to help these Republican seats, then they too could certainly flip.

Finally, there are the following Republican seats currently receiving mediocre funding.  If polling comes back and indicates these seats to be non-winnable (a cut off of funding will be the sign), then they too are flipping: Graves, Kuhl, Open Seat AL 5, Open Seat MO 9, Open Seat NY 26, Reichert, and Schmidt.

The same can be said for challenges to the following Democratic incumbents: Kanjorski, McNerney, and Shea-Porter. (Honestly spending against McNerney is a worthless expenditure, yet with Tom Cole at the helm what could one expect.  Every wasted dollar counts.).

As for the DCCC, it’s time to now step in and offset the spending in support of Lincoln Diaz-Balart.  Obviously, the infusion of cash indicates what I’ve seen for some time, Diaz-Balart is losing.  The same can be said true for Sali.

The following Democrats can now be considered re-elected: Carney, Childers, Giffords, Hill, Mitchell, and Rodriguez.

Spending by the NRCC and lack of funding by the DCCC may be a sign that Democrats have forfeited Lampson’s seat.

As a side note, these figures indiciate the undisputable obvious.  The cash strapped NRCC is coordinating with Club for Growth in some races (MD 1 and FL 24) and Freedom’s Watch (AZ 1, NV 3, NJ 7, and PA 10).  Republicans simply would not cut off funding completely in many of these races.

Here are the contests (ranked in order of spending) where the DCCC and NRCC, along with outside groups, are spending heavily:

Schauer (D) vs. Walberg (R) – $1,770,159

(55.75% of expenditures in support of Schauer)

DCCC: $424,232 Media and $62,722 Mailings

NRCC: $387,252 Media and $149,875 Mailings

Right to Life: $10,677 Mailings

Club for Growth: $226,125 Media and $9,276 Mailings

Am. Fed. SCME: $500,000 Media

Heinrich (D) vs. White (R) – $1,299,722

(73.84% of expenditures in support of Heinrich)

DCCC: $410,492 Media and $49,230 Mailings

Am. Fed. SCME: $500,000 Media

NM Repub. Party: $340,000 Media

Dahlkemper (D) vs. English (R) – $1,256,183

(67.52% of expenditures in support of Dahlkemper)

DCCC: $288,300 Media and $70,444 Mailings

NRCC: $189,532 Media and $79,197 Mailings

Am. Fed. SCME: $489,375 Media

Amer. Med. Assoc.: $139,335 Media

Driehaus (D) vs. Chabot (R) – $1,202,992

(49.96% of expenditures in support of Driehaus)

DCCC: $438,548 Media and $127,802 Mailings

NCCC: $485,271 Media and $111,515 Mailings

Right to Life: $5,168 Mailings

SEIU: $34,688 Mailings

Markey (D) vs. Musgrave (R) – $1,061,049

(61.08% of expenditures in support of Markey)

DCCC: $345,322 Media and $63,536 Mailings

NRCC: $339,856 Media and $64,600 Mailings

Right to Life: $8,508 Mailings

Defenders of Wildlife: $125,000 Media

Emily’s List: $114,227

Boccieri (D) vs. Schuring (R) – $959,552

(100% of expenditures in support of Boccieri)

DCCC: $423,844 Media and $49,808 Mailings

Am. Fed. SCME: $485,900 Media

Berkowitz (D) vs. Young (R) – $896,022

(100% of expenditures in support of Berkowitz)

DCCC: $855,394 Media and $40,628 Mailings

Kratovil (D) vs. Harris (R) – $809,154

(60.28% of expenditures in support of Kratovil)

DCCC: $439,440 Media and $48,352

Club for Growth – $312,687 Media and $8,675 Mailings

Shea-Porter (D) vs. Bradley (R) – $755,618

(71.94% of expenditures in support of Shea-Porter)

DCCC: $467,756 Media and $75,856 Mailings

NRCC: $142,290 Media and $69,716 Mailings

Kilroy (D) vs. Stivers (R) – $749,708

(63.39% of expenditures in support of Kilroy)

DCCC: $407,488 Media and $42,572 Mailings

NRCC: $183,050 Media and $91,408 Mailings

Emily’s List: $25,190 Mailings

Connolly (D) vs. Fimian (R) – $713,041

(99.24% of expenditures in support of Connolly)

DCCC: $160,636 Media and $47,024 Mailings

Right to Life: $5,381 Mailings

Natl. Assoc. of Realtors: $300,000 Media and $200,000 Mailing

Martinez (D) vs. Diaz-Balart (R) – $695,702

(16.53% of expenditures in support of Martinez)

DCCC: $114,982 Media

NRCC: $488,000 Media and $90,016 Mailings

Right to Life: $2,704 Mailings

Lord (D) vs. Shadegg (R) – $693,086

(99.82% of expenditures in support of Lord)

DCCC: $637,848 Media and $53,970 Mailings

Right to Life: $7,224 Mailings

Club for Growth – $1,268 Mailings

Barth (D) vs. Capito (R) – $654,800

(0% of expenditures in support of Barth)

Natl. Assoc. of Realtors – $410,000 Media and $244,800 Mailing

Cazayoux (D) vs. Cassidy (R) – $649,135

(56.22% of expenditures in support of Cazayoux)

DCCC: $290,332 Media and $74,582 Mailings

NRCC: $21,587 Media and $164,294 Mailings

Grigsby: $98,340 Mailings

Kosmas (D) vs. Feeney (R) – $637,995

(71.57% of expenditures in support of Kosmas)

DCCC: $378,060 Media and $78,584 Mailings

Right to Life: $14,476 Mailings

Club for Growth: $166,875

Kagen (D) vs. Gard (R) – $635,843

(54.76% of expenditures in support of Kagen)

DCCC: $172,440 Media and $55,596 Mailings

NRCC: $193,295 Media and $81,924 Mailings

Right to Life: $12,443 Mailings

Amer. Med. Assoc. – $120,145 Media

Kissell (D) vs. Hayes (R) – $622,622

(100% of expenditures in support of Kissell)

DCCC: $533,654 Media and $88,968 Mailings

Kryzan (D) vs. Lee (R) – $622,270

(93.92% of expenditures in support of Kryzan)

DCCC: $517,260 Media and $67,164 Mailings

NRCC: $37,846 Mailings

Kirkpatrick (D) vs. Hay (R) – $611,006

(100% of expenditures in support of Kirkpatrick)

DCCC: $565,058 Media and $46,008 Mailings

Madia (D) vs. Paulsen (R) – $596,442

(100% of expenditures in support of Madia)

DCCC: $546,678 Media and $20,774 Mailings

SEIU: $28,990 Mailings

Peters (D) vs. Knollenberg (R) – $592,905

(83.73% of expenditures in support of Peters)

DCCC: $416,490 Media and $48,386 Mailings

Right to Life: $9,254 Mailings

Natl. Assoc. of Realtors – $87,233

SEIU: $31,542 Mailings

Burner (D) vs. Reichert (R) – $577,176

(90.68% of expenditures in support of Burner)

DCCC: $453,894 Media and $69,512 Mailings

NRCC: $49,057 Mailings

Right to Life: $4,713 Mailings

Nye (D) vs. Drake (R) – $536,390

(66.14% of expenditures in support of Nye)

DCCC: $333,008 Media and $21,736 Mailings

NRCC: $177,572 Media

Right to Life: $4,074 Mailings

Mitchell (D) vs. Schweikert (R) – $512,318

(97.41% of expenditures in support of Mitchell)

DCCC: $475,084 Media and $23,952 Mailings

Right to Life: $7,022 Mailings

Club for Growth – $6,260 Mailings

Titus (D) vs. Porter (R) – $501,898

(100% of expenditures in support of Titus)

DCCC: $434,190 Media and $56,956 Mailings

Right to Life: $10,752 Mailings

Barnes (D) vs. Graves (R) – $498,190

(71.05% of expenditures in support of Barnes)

DCCC: $325,908 Media and $28,052 Mailings

NRCC: $83,700 Media and $50,920 Mailings

Right to Life: $9,610 Mailings

Teague (D) vs. Tinsley (R) – $481,908

(100% of expenditures in support of Teague)

DCCC: $452,496 Media and $29,412 Mailings

Hill (D) vs. Sodrel (R) – $464,306

(100% of expenditures in support of Hill)

DCCC: $441,970 Media and $22,336 Mailings

Bright (D) vs. Love (R) – $454,861

(62.90% of expenditures in support of Bright)

DCCC: $202,816 Media and $83,298 Mailings

NRCC: $102,674 Media and $66,073 Mailings

Kanjorski (D) vs. Barletta (R) – $402,710

(90.75% of expenditures in support of Kanjorski)

DCCC: $323,536 Media and $41,906 Mailings

NRCC: $37,268 Mailings

Adler (D) vs. Myers (R) – $383,949

(65.57% of expenditures in support of Adler)

DCCC: $187,752 Media and $64,024 Mailings

NRCC: $132,173 Mailings

Carney (D) vs. Hackett (R) – $383,311

(98.43% of expenditures in support of Carney)

DCCC: $344,378 Media and $32,920 Mailings

Right to Life: $14,462 Mailings

Club for Growth – $6,013 Mailings

Himes (D) vs. Shays (R) – $374,294

(82.54% of expenditures in support of Himes)

DCCC: $243,546 Media and $65,384 Mailings

Natl. Assoc. of Realtors – $65,364

Rodriguez (D) vs. Larson (R) – $373,732

(100% of expenditures in support of Rodriguez)

DCCC: $198,752 Media and $5,576 Mailings

Natl. Assoc. of Realtors – $169,404

Boswell (D) vs. Guthrie (R) – $370,196

(100% of expenditures in support of Boswell)

DCCC: $317,780 Media and $52,416 Mailings

Baker (D) vs. Leutkemeyer (R) – $354,441

(74.18% of expenditures in support of Baker)

DCCC: $201,242 Media and $61,672 Mailings

NRCC: $71,760 Media and $10,000 Mailings

Right to Life: $9,767 Mailings

Griffith (D) vs. Parker (R) – $352,762

(60.60% of expenditures in support of Griffith)

DCCC: $183,218 Media and $30,552 Mailings

NRCC: $89,492 Media and $49,500 Mailings

Stender (D) vs. Lance (R) – $321,926

(100% of expenditures in support of Stender)

DCCC: $233,084 Media and $88,842 Mailings

Minnick (D) vs. Sali (R) – $306,637

(27.45% of expenditures in support of Minnick)

DCCC: $48,850 Media and $35,320 Mailings

NRCC: $213,591 Media

Right to Life: $3,541 Mailings

Club for Growth – $5,335 Mailings

Massa (D) vs. Kuhl (R) – $224,356

(73.29% of expenditures in support of Massa)

DCCC: $150,870 Media and $13,550 Mailings

NRCC: $59,936 Mailings

Wulsin (D) vs. Schmidt (R) – $202,172

(75.71% of expenditures in support of Wulsin)

DCCC: $141,526 Media

NRCC: $40,972 Mailings

Right to Life: $8,127 Mailings

Physician’s for Women’s Health: $11,547

Halvorson (D) vs. Ozinga (R) – $165,580

(100% of expenditures in support of Halvorson)

DCCC: $87,808 Media and $77,772 Mailings

Seals (D) vs. Kirk (R) – $151,492

(100% of expenditures in support of Seals)

DCCC: $82,132 Media and $69,360

Giffords (D) vs. Bee (R) – $149,983

(95.81% of expenditures in support of Giffords)

DCCC: $128,700 Media and $14,996 Mailings

Right to Life: $6,287 Mailings

Montagano (D) vs. Souder (R) – $149,104

(100% of expenditures in support of Montagano)

DCCC: $133,034 Media and $16,070 Mailings

Esch (D) vs. Terry (R) – $148,784

(100% of expenditures in support of Esch)

DCCC: $129,806 Media and $18,978 Mailings

McNerney (D) vs. Andal (R) – $128,151

(59.18% of expenditures in support of McNerney)

DCCC: $47,736 Media and $28,100 Mailings

NRCC: $40,232 Mailings

Right to Life: $6,675 Mailings

Club for Growth – $5,408 Mailings

Garcia (D) vs. Diaz-Balart (R) – $119,970

(97.48% of expenditures in support of Garcia)

DCCC: $98,018 Media and $18,924 Mailings

Right to Life: $3,028 Mailings

Perriello (D) vs. Goode (R) – $65,052

(92.14% of expenditures in support of Perriello)

DCCC: $59,940 Media

Right to Life: $5,112 Mailings

Childers (D) vs. Davis (R) – $48,336

(100% of expenditures in support of Childers)

DCCC: $48,336 Media

Lampson (D) vs. Olson (R) – $30,652

(0% of expenditures in support of Lampson)

NRCC: $27,171

Right to Life: $2,756 Mailings

Club for Growth – $725 Mailings

Brown (D) vs. McClintock (R) – $25,986

(63.95% of expenditures in support of Brown)

DCCC: $16,618 Mailings

Right to Life: $6,668 Mailings

Club for Growth – $2,700 Mailings

The DCCC is merely wasting money trying to save Kanjorski.  It’s time to put the party ahead of one individual.  The possibility of picking up three seats or more is being sacrificed in an attempt to save just one vulnerable incumbent.

Kanjorski is to the Democrats what Phil Crane was to the Republicans.  An appropriate analogy would be asking a 45 year old to suit up and placing him on the football field to make a touchdown in the final quarter of the game with no timeouts remaining: it simply will not happen.

Time’s Up!! Games Over!!

Pack up the caravan and move spending into races that are developing such as Dent in the neighboring district, Buyer in Indiana, Lungren in CA, or Bartlett in Maryland.  Bartlett also has similar factors working against him which are working against Kanjorski: age and tenure.  Buyer and Lungren have tenure against them.  

Watching Kanjorski’s ads one can not help but feel sorry.  Kanjorski appears tired and ready to retire, yet he obviously wants to do it on his own terms.  Bartlett also has age working against him as it did for both Crane and Roth in Delaware.  Additionally, this is a change election so obviously incumbents with the longest tenure appear to be more endangered than in previous elections (Young, Shays, Kanjorski, Rohrabacher, and Knollenberg).

Democrats have already lost Mahoney’s seat, now it’s time to let Kanjorski battle it out on his own.  Obviously voters do not want Barletta and surely he will be a one termer in a district such as this.  However, in the event that he is not, then expect him to be redistricted out or into an unfavorable district come 2012 (PA is on track to lose a seat).  In a change election it’s simply difficult to ask voters to choose someone who has made erratic mistakes and created his own vulnerabilities, even when he’s a Democrat and would make a more effective representative.

I think Democrats can afford to lose one seat while picking up and consolidating the remaining seats in the Northeast:

– English

– Dent

– Kuhl

– Reynolds Open Seat

– Fossella Open Seat

– Ferguson Open Seat

– Walsh Open Seat

– Bartlett

– Gilchest Open Seat

– Ferguson Open Seat

– Davis Open Seat

Therefore, let’s forfeit one here and pick up 11 others.

And if a domino effect is created, then with luck, Garrett, Gerlach, Murphy (PA), and King are all ripe for the taking.  However, these are long shots at best.

The only three seats that appear to create problems for Democrats in the Northeast are:

– Saxton’s Open Seat – The NRCC is spending heavy to get their extreme ideologue across the line.

– Shays – He has shown resiliance and Himes has a very high unknown percentage, even after much spending.  This does not bode well since independents who have always been the deciding factor in Shays re-election, will go with Shays over the unknown.

– Wolf – Another incumbent with tenure, yet Feder hasn’t received funding from the DCCC as in 2006.  

It’s also imperitive that the DCCC retain the only two vulnerable Democrats in the Northeast: Carney and Shea-Porter.

The NRCC’s recruitment failures allowed many of the 2006 freshman in the Northeast to slide by with very little or weak opposition: Hodes, Courtney, Murphy, Hall, Arcuri, Gillibrand, and Altmire.

Throwing individuals under the bus is never a good thing, yet many other capable candidates are waiting at the next stop for their turn at the wheel.  

Hopefully the DCCC gets the message and understands the task at hand.

Here’s a highlight on some of the most recent expenditures (filed Thurs. and Friday) on behalf of or against candidates:

The DCCC has added the following new targets with media buys and mailings:

– Goode (VA)

– Schmidt (OH)

– Sali (ID)

– Mario Diaz-Balart (FL)

– Lincoln Diaz-Balart (FL)

An additional race targeted with mailings only:

– Kuhl

– McClintock

The NRCC has added the following Democrats to their target list:

– Lampson

– Kanjorski

– McNerney

Shea Porter has also been added as a target with a $142K ad and Baker in MO 9th with a $72K media buy.

And the following to “save them” list:

– Kuhl

– Schmidt

Service Employees International sent mailings targeting:

– Schaeffer

– Sununu

– Paulsen (MN)

– Chabot

– Knollenberg

The NRA threw down $252K for Schaeffer in Colorado and a smaller $58K for Coleman in Minnesota

Families First in CA took out an ad targeting extremely safe Joe Baca in his Hispanic majority district.

National Right to Life is spending $19K for Sununu and $15K for Thompson in PA 5th.

The Club for Growth is spending very little on its “radical” bedfellows:

– Harris in MD 1 ($102K ad expenditure)

– Hackett in PA 10

– Andal in CA 12

– Bachmann

– Sununu

– Garrett

– Shadegg

– Olson in TX 22

– Walberg

– McClintock in CA 4

– Schweikert in CA 5

– Sali

– Schaeffer

Planned Parenthood is throwing $293K Franken’s way in mailings.  Environment America also stepped in with $100K in mailings on Franken’s behalf.

After the NRCC dropped NM 1 the NM State Republican Party came in with two big expenditures on behalf on White.  The American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees has responded accordingly with $500K against White.  English in PA 3rd also was awarded with a $489K against him.

American Medical Association brought media buys for Shaheen ($495K) and Kagen ($120K).

League of Conservation took out a $365K ad against Dole.

Natl. Assoc. of Realtors is spending $65K for Shays, $87K for Knollenberg, and $245K for Capito in mailings.  The lone Democratic recipient is Connolly in VA 11th with $200K.

Very few could have expected a wave bigger than 2006, yet it appears that Republicans are in danger, even in Republican leaning districts.  Interestingly, a large number of these endangered Republican seats are in competitive presidential states.  The list shows the following:

– Mortgage foreclosures and economic slowdown is exposing candidates in CA, FL, MI, and NV.

– The Northeast and Midwest are gradually pulling away from Republican, even moderate Republicans.

– Open Seats and the weakest Republican incumbents are being thrown to the sharks.  The NRCC is only spending to protect extreme ideologues, including open seats in AL and NJ which feature far right candidates.  Obviously the Republican Party simply hasn’t got the message: American’s want less partisanship.

Here are 23 Republican seats which are heading into the Democratic column:

AK (AL) – Young

AZ (1st) – Open Seat

CO (4th) – Musgrave

FL (8th) – Keller

FL (21st) – Lincoln Diaz-Balart

FL (24th) – Feeney

ID (1st) – Sali

IL (11th) – Open Seat

MI (7th) – Walberg

MI (9th) – Knollenberg

MN (3rd) – Open Seat

NC (8th) – Hayes

NJ (7th) – Open Seat

NM (1st) – Open Seat

NV (3rd) – Porter

NY (13th) – Open Seat

NY (25th) – Open Seat

NY (29th) – Open Seat

OH (1st) – Chabot

OH (15th) – Open Seat

OH (16th) – Open Seat

PA (3rd) – English

VA (11th) – Open Seat

The NRCC is spending heavily on behalf of Musgrave, English, and Diaz-Balart.  They are also doing mailing in OH 15th.  The Club for Growth is protecting Walberg and the NM Republican Party is coming in strong for NM 1.

Here are the 9 endangered Democratic seats:

AL (5th) – Open Seat

GA (8th) – Marshall

KS (2nd) – Boyda

LA (6th) – Cazayoux

NH (1st) – Shea-Porter

PA (10th) – Carney

PA (11th) – Kanjorski

TX (22nd) – Lampson

WI (8th) – Kagen

The NRCC is spending heavily in AL 5 and against Cazayoux and Kagen.  Boyda’s race has had only one outside expenditure from the Credit Union Assoc. on behalf of Jenkins.  Shea-Porter is appearing more safe in large part to massive spending by the DCCC.  Marshall makes the list for the first time due to backlash at home against his vote for the bailout.  Carney is looking more safe, but Kanjorski’s problems in the neighboring district create problems for Carney.  Finally, Lampson may indeed pull an upset in Texas.  Olson is now being portrayed as a Yankee, due to him voting in Connecticut only years ago.  Seems that Yankee tactic worked very well in the past when another Nutmeger ran for Congress in Texas and lost: George W. Bush.  Lampson has a chance finally.

Now the obvious.  Mahoney’s seat has been abandoned.  Making it one guaranteed Democratic seat lost.

As a result of Obama’s surgence and McCain’s fumbling and uneasiness on both Wall Street and Main Street, the number of Republicans being exposed has increased, while the number of Democrats previously exposed (ex: Mitchell, McNerney, Childers, and Walz) has decreased.  The reason why the incumbents of 2006 are more protected may be explained under two theories:

1. The NRCC did a poor recruiting job in several districts (Shuler, Space, Courtney, and Hodes)

2. It’s difficult to blame a freshman incumbent for problems that originated previous to their arrival.  Many Americans view the problems starting with Bush’s arrival.  Republicans, not Democrats, are the individuals being held culpable as a result.

Here are the 51 additional Republican seats at severe risk of being lost or swept away in the ensuing tide:

AL (2nd) – Open Seat

AL (3rd) – Rogers

AZ (3rd) – Shadegg

CA (3rd) – Lungren

CA (4th) – Open Seat

CA (26th) – Dreier

CA (46th) – Rohrbacher

CA (50th) – Bilbray

CT (4th) – Shays

FL (10th) – Young

FL (12th) – Putnam

FL (15th) – Open Seat

FL (18th) – Ros-Lehtninen

FL (25th) – Mario Diaz-Balart

IL (10th) – Kirk

IL (13th) – Biggert

IN (3rd) – Souder

IN (4th) – Buyer

IA (4th) – Latham

IA (5th) – King

KY (2nd) – Open Seat

LA (1st) – Scalise

LA (7th) – Boustany

MD (1st) – Open Seat

MD (6th) – Bartlett

MN (6th) – Bachmann

MO (6th) – Graves

MO (9th) – Open Seat

NE (2nd) – Terry

NV (3rd) – Heller

NC (5th) – Foxx

NC (10th) – McHenry

NJ (3rd) – Open Seat

NJ (5th) – Garrett

NM (2nd) – Open Seat

NY (26th) – Open Seat

OH (2nd) – Schmidt

OH (14th) – LaTourette

PA (6th) – Gerlach

PA (15th) – Dent

PA (18th) – Murphy

SC (1st) – Brown

SC (2nd) – Wilson

TX (7th) – Culberson

TX (10th) – McCaul

VA (2nd) – Drake

VA (5th) – Goode

VA (10th) – Wolf

WA (8th) – Reichert

WV (2nd) – Capito

WY (AL) – Open Seat

The list is diverse and includes races which are moving against Democrats (Bilbray, Ros-Lehtinen, and Capito).  

It also features races in Republican leaning districts where the DCCC is spending heavily (MO 9th and NY 26th).  

The list also includes extreme ideologues (Bachmann, King, Garrett, Foxx, McHenry, and Schmidt).

And the always inclusive moderates from the Northeast and Midwest (Shays, Gerlach, Biggert, Dent, and Kirk).

There are also the races that very few would have considered competitive, due to the Republican leanings of the district.  In each of these races the Democrat has raised massive funds (Goode, Culberson, McCaul, and Shadegg).

Then there are the challenger from 2006 back for seconds (Reichert, Wolf, and Wyoming AL).

And of course the self-funding races (Scalise and Brown).

Finally, there are the races featuring incumbents representing Democratic leaning districts (Latham, Putnam, KY 2nd, Rogers, and Boustany).

And one could never forget the perennial weak incumbents whom always struggle, even in Republican districts (Souder, Terry, and Drake).

Finally, we have incumbents whom have been in Washington for decades and if this is change year, then they could certainly be gone (Dreier, Young, and Bartlett).

Independent expenditures indicate the 12 seats that Republicans are targeting in the final three weeks.  Unfortunately, some Republican incumbents have been thrown overboard in the process, except Lincoln Diaz-Balart, where the NRCC has thrown in a half million this week (suitcase included).  The DCCC has yet to follow through in assisting Martinez, yet they should since it is apparent that Lincoln is in trouble.  

Here are the 12 races where the DCCC and NRCC are spending heavily (The Club for Growth is spending heavily for Walberg and Harris in MD-1):

AL (2nd) – Open Seat (R)

AL (5th) – Open Seat (D)

LA (5th) – Cazayoux (D)

MD (1st) – Open Seat (R)

MI (7th) – Walberg (R)

MO (6th) – Graves (R)

NJ (3rd) – Open Seat (R)

OH (1st) – Chabot (R)

OH (15th) – Open Seat (R)

PA (3rd) – English (R)

WA (8th) – Reichert (R)

WI (8th) – Kagen (D)

Now the good news.  Heavy spending by the DCCC and Defenders of Wildlife, in the case of Young and Musgrave, are certain to immediately bring down the eight incumbents listed below.  The NRCC has not spent on behalf of any of these incumbents, likely due to the closeness of previous elections in each district.  

In Feeney’s district Citizens Club for Growth is running an ad defining Kosmas as a liberal.  It simply carries no message, but is a worthwhile waste for the same organization that attacked Lynn Jenkins in Kansas and she still prevailed.  

Knollenberg has received spending by Natl. Assoc. of Realtors, but the Service Employees Internationl spending, on behalf of Peters, literally cancels all that out.  

The DCCC has not spent against Keller, yet the even split between the parties in the district and Keller’s poor primary performance ensure that independents, who he has not performed strongly with, are definately leaving his side this year.  

Therefore, my prediction is that the following will be defeated:

Young (AK) – The Club for Growth attacked Young viciously during the primary.  He limped across the finish line only to be greeted with a new barrage of attacks from Defenders of Wildlife and the DCCC.  Bruised, battered, and completely forgotten by the NRCC.

Musgrave (CO) – Defenders of Wildlife are spending heavily here, while also receiving an assist from Emily’s List and the DCCC.  The NRCC has come in at the last minute to help Musgrave, yet it is too little money to fix the barrage of attacks Musgrave sustained.

Feeney (FL) – Punishment has finally arrived for this arrogant and corrupt politician.  Not only did he interfere with the 2000 recount in Florida, he also drew his own district boundary while in the state legislature.  Any power which Feeney had, which was far less than what he had in Tallahassee, has finally been exhausted.

Keller (FL) – He came to office in 2001 with Bush and will now leave with Bush.  Neither the DCCC or NRCC has been spending here, but the demographics of the district have turned to the advantage of Democrats.  A poor performance in the primary clearly demonstrated Keller’s vulnerabilities.  Independents, the decisive voice here, will clearly break away from Keller.  The author of the “Cheeseburger Bill” has been fired.

Knollenberg (MI) – The economic devastation in Michigan and high unemployment are just some of the factors which guarantee Knollenberg’s loss.  While the NRCC and outside Republican groups continue to run ads on Walberg’s behalf the same can not be said true for Knollenberg.  Republicans have forfeited this seat in order to help the more ideological Walberg.

Hayes (NC) – Second round will bring Kissell across the finish line.  The DCCC is spending heavily on behalf of Kissell, largely due to his cash disadvantage.  The NRCC is not spending a single cent.  The district is Democratic leaning and has a 28% African-American electorate, the largest of any district currently represented by a Republican.

Porter (NV) – The high number of foreclosures in the Las Vegas market and the unpopularity of both Bush and Gov. Gibbons have finally taken their toll on Porter.  It was only a matter of time before both the district and NRCC abandoned him.  This is the year.

Kuhl (NY) – The cash strapped NRCC gave Kuhl, an extreme ideologue, a pass.  Desperate times call for desperate measures and Kuhl has been thrown overboard.

Even more good news.  The following eight open seats fall into the Democratic GAIN column:

AZ (1st) – Kirkpatrick defeats Hay

IL (11th) – Halvorson defeats Ozinga

MN (3rd) – Madia defeats Paulsen

NJ (7th) – Stender defeats Lance

NY (13th) – McMahon defeats Straniere

NY (25th) – Maffei defeats Sweetland

OH (16th) – Boccieri defeats Schuring

VA (11th) – Connolly defeats Fimian

The bad news is that Mahoney’s seat is gone.  Therefore, Democrats have a 15 seat gain so far.

Now, here are the top races (15 R and 6 D) that the DCCC has been targeting, yet Republicans and their shadow groups have not been able to respond in kind (except for Lincoln Diaz-Balart).  Too bad for the incumbents that have been thrown overboard to fight on their own.

AZ (3rd) – Shadegg (R)

CT (4th) – Shays (R)

FL (21st) – Diaz-Balart, Lincoln (R)

FL (25th) – Diaz-Balart, Mario (R)

GA (8th) – Marshall (D)

ID (1st) – Sali (R)

IL (10th) – Kirk (R)

IN (3rd) – Souder (R)

KS (2nd) – Boyda (D)

KY (2nd) – Open Seat (R)

MO (9th) – Open Seat (R)

NE (1st) – Terry (R)

NH (1st) – Shea-Porter (D)

NM (1st) – Open Seat (R)

NM (2nd) – Open Seat (R)

NY (26th) – Open Seat (R)

OH (2nd) – Schmidt (R)

PA (10th) – Carney (D)

PA (11th) – Kanjorski (D)

TX (22nd) – Lampson (D)

VA (2nd) – Drake (R)

Surprisingly, Democrat Marshall has been added for the same reason that the Chambliss race has become competitive in Georgia: the bailout package was not popular and Marshall voted for it.  This race should tighten.

Finally, there are 35 Republican seats which are at great risk.  Here they are:

AL (3rd) – Rogers (R)

CA (3rd) – Lungren (R)

CA (4th) – Open Seat (R)

CA (26th) – Dreier (R)

CA (46th) – Rohrbacher (R)

CA (50th) – Bilbray (R)

FL (10th) – Young (R)

FL (12th) – Putnam (R)

FL (15th) – Open Seat (R)

FL (18th) – Ros-Lehtinen (R)

IL (13th) – Biggert (R)

IN (4th) – Buyer (R)

IA (4th) – Latham (R)

IA (5th) – King (R)

LA (1st) – Scalise (R)

LA (7th) – Boustany (R)

MD (6th) – Bartlett (R)

MN (2nd) – Kline (R)

MN (6th) – Bachmann (R)

NV (2nd) – Heller (R)

NJ (5th) – Garrett (R)

NC (5th) – Foxx (R)

NC (10) – McHenry (R)

OH (14th) – LaTourette (R)

PA (6th) – Gerlach (R)

PA (15th) – Dent (R)

PA (18th) – Murphy (R)

SC (1st) – Brown (R)

SC (2nd) – Wilson (R)

TX (7th) – Culberson (R)

TX (10th) – McCaul (R)

VA (5th) – Goode (R)

VA (10th) – Wolf (R)

WV (2nd) – Capito (R)

WY (AL) – Open Seat (R)

While some races are moving away from Democrats (Bilbray and Ros-Lehtninen), others are moving closer to Democrats (Culberson, Bartlett, Bachmann, and Dent).

Here are just some of the highlights which could end up costing Republicans previously seen as safe:

Open Seat (15th) – Republican Posey got a great endorsement by Florida Today, the major newspaper in the district.  Florida Today stated that Posey’s support for social security privitization and stance against univeral health care were contrary to the needs of the district.  They also were fearful that Posey would be an extreme partisan in Congress.  Great endorsement!!  The Orlando Sentinel gave him no endorsement and the campaign whined, releasing press releases calling the Sentinel a “liberal” newspaper.  Interestingly, liberal enough to endorse an ulta-conservative Republican like Ricky Keller and other fellow Republicans.

Bartlett (MD) – He accussed overregulation in a debate for the current economic problems.  Obviously age has caught up with Bartlett and the race has shown signs of tightening since this reckless statement.

Brown (SC) – In a recent debate Brown stated that his opponent was not “a Southern woman.”  Clearly he was rude and cranky and Ketner has seized on the comment and is using it against Brown.  Guess no one told Brown that 55% of the district is registered female and 21% are registered African-American.  Guess Smoky the Bear doesn’t mind losing his seat to an heiress.

First, let’s start with the obvious.  It’s time that the DCCC cut off funding permanently for Mahoney (FL) and Kanjorski (PA).  Both have been horrible incumbents this cycle.  While I may also include Lampson (TX) in this group I think the DCCC should conduct a poll to see if Lampson is indeed survivable, yet so far I say no.  The next two incumbents which create worry are Carney and Cazayoux, independent spending may be eroding their actual numbers.

As for Democratic challengers, the DCCC does not need to continue to spend in CT-4 for two reasons: Himes has lots of money on hand and the NRCC is not spending on behalf of Shays.  Democrats should instead take funds from these three or four races and divert them to 12 other races featuring incumbents.

Now here are the races being overlooked by the DCCC:

1. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (FL) – The NRCC is spending on his behalf, therefore he’s obviously in trouble.  While Tom Cole enjoyed calling out Mahoney and is seeking to make Mahoney’s personal behavior a tag line for Democrats in general, he may want to tread carefully.  A Puerto Rican state senator under indictment claims he paid Diaz-Balart a suitcase full of cash.  The DCCC is clearly missing an opportunity here.

2. Mario Diaz-Balart (FL) – When Mario started going negative his numbers dropped and the race has become closer.  He claims that Garcia benefited from Enron.  A Democrat benefitting from Enron is highly unlikely.  Both Diaz-Balart brothers represent the Miami market, yet Mario’s also includes reliable Republican territory: Naples.  It clearly would be a good idea to erode the Diaz-Balart brothers base in Miami by running an ad featuring them both.

3. Ric Keller (FL) – Every major pollster is starting to move this race to the Democratic column and rightfully so.  As with the Diaz-Balart’s it would be perfect for the DCCC to run an ad featuring Keller and corrupt Feeney together.  While the NRCC would rush to save Keller over Feeney, it would then make Kosmas even more safer.  This district is evenly split between R’s and D’s and Keller’s pink slip is coming.  Unfortunately the DCCC wanted Charlie Stuart to win, yet that is a lame excuse to let Keller get a pass.  Yes Grayson had money, but he wasted it all in the primary.  Also noticeable is that his ads do not attack Keller directly or even link him with Bush.  That is where the DCCC should come in, linking Keller and Feeney with the Bush agenda.  Social security privitization and home foreclosures are both definately a sell here for them.

4. Bill Sali (ID) – The DCCC is spending a small amount here, yet the market is very inexpensive.  Sali is a lighting rod even within his own party.  Minnick could clearly have an edge with independents here if the DCCC portrays Sali as a failure.

5. Jean Schmidt (OH) – This wench is clearly in trouble and no one see’s the signs.  Hitting her with a few media runs in the extremely inexpensive Portsmouth market and mailers outside Cincinnati can be extremely beneficial to Wulsin.  Of course a media buy in Cincinnati, which includes Schmidt and Chabot together would also be a great idea.  

6. Michelle Bachmann (MN) – The NRCC stopped advertising in Minneapolis on Paulsen’s behalf in order to help Bachmann.  Obviously her summer in ANWR has had an impact back home.  Sure she represents a Republican district, but Tinklenberg is a centrist Democrat.  A little spending in Saint Cloud couldn’t hurt the DCCC.

7. Charlie Dent (PA) – He barely survived in 2006 and the DCCC knows that, yet to give him a free pass is ridiculous.  Sam Bennett appears to be a strong challenger here.  Her fundraising has surpassed the 2006 challenger who spent virtually nothing and still kept Dent at 54%.  Allentown stations are not that expensive and spending here could force the NRCC to leave Kanjorski and Barletta battling it out alone.  The DCCC could also help Carney by forcing the NRCC to divert funds to save Dent, making him the second major targeted Republican here, English being the first.

8. Dan Lungren (CA) – ABC News clearly exposed him as being corrupt and a DCCC ad showing that very footage could hurt him greatly.  It could even have some effect in the neighboring 4th, since retiring Doolittle was consistently being labeled corrupt.  Sacramento is a very expensive ad market, yet one ad and campaigning by Feinstein could help steal this seat.

9. Dean Heller (NV) – An ad featuring Lungren and Heller together in the Reno market, which crosses into Lungren’s district could help make both seats further competitive.  Linking both to Bush and the failed Republican agenda is what needs to be done.

10. Virgil Goode (VA) – Ads in Danville and Charlottesville, along with appearances by former Governor Mark Warner and current Governor Tim Kaine, could help rid Congress of Goode.

11. Shelley Moore Capito (WV) – Ads in Charleston and campaign appearances by the Clinton’s could not only make this race competitive, but also force the state into a much lighter red.

12. John Culberson (TX) – Attacking Culberson in Houston could force the NRCC to ease up on Lampson in order to protect one of their own.  Skelly has not only been a credible challenger, but a serious threat to Culberson.

Finally, if there is one grassroots candidate which may come across the finish line on election night, then Nels Ackerson (IN) may be the one.  He is challenging Buyer and has raised individual contributions equal to Buyer’s PAC money.  He’s outraised Buyer strongly in individual donations.  Purdue University is located in the district and should have a strong turnout for Obama.  The DCCC may be making a worthy investment if it did spend in Lafayette and send out mailings on Ackerson’s behalf.