Author: bushy08

(Note: These ratings are independent and are not the same ratings drafted by SSP).

Republican Favored

Open Seat (ID-R)

Open Seat (NE-R)

Republican Favored/Likely Republican

Inhofe (OK-R)

Alexander (TN-R)

Likely Republican

Roberts (KS-R)

Graham (SC-R)

Likely/Leans Republican

Cornyn (TX-R)

Leans Republican

McConnell (KY-R)

Collins (ME-R)

Toss-Up

Stevens (AK-R)

Chambliss (GA-R)

Coleman (MN-R)

Wicker (MS-R)

Leans Democrat

Open Seat (CO-R) **

Sununu (NH-R) **

Dole (NC-R) **

Smith (OR-R) **

Likely Democrat

Landrieu (LA-D)

Likely Democrat/Democrat Favored

Lautenberg (NJ-D)

Democrat Favored

Open Seat (NM-R) **

Johnson (SD-D)

Open Seat (VA-R) **

Democrats are expected to pick up at least six seats.  While possible, it is quite a stretch to expect Democrats to pick up more than eight seats.  

Of the Toss Up seats, Stevens is most likely the safest, since it is more likely that his trial will end in acquittal.  The Coleman and Chambliss races have shown the most momentum in the past month, while Wicker’s race has remained relatively flat.  No Democrat is expected to lose at this point.  

Oh and as for Joe, expect him to go over to that other side.  Democrats will no longer need him and his chairmanship of the Homeland Security Committee will be revoked post-election.  Should Joe resign outright, which is highly unlikely, then Governor Rell, a Republican, appoints his successor.  Top prospect is Chris Shays, who if appointed, would clearly have a voting record similar to Joe, yet also one far more liberal than Joe as it relates to Iraq.  If Joe stays, then Democrats still win.  And if Joe goes, Democrats still win.  A win-win either way.      

Recent Changes:

Chambliss (GA) – This race was previously considered Likely Republican, in a large part to the likelihood of a large African-American electorate showing up on Election Day.  The race has since changed dramatically.  A Libertarian candidate has been taking voters from Chambliss in some of the stronger Republican areas, such as Warner Robins.  The gas shortages in Georgia, the bailout vote, and Chambliss’s perceived softening on illegal immigration, have also cost him some of the radical Republican voters.  With 30% of the electorate classified as African-American, Chambliss could ill afford to lose his base.  Independents may also desert Chambliss in large part to the anti-incumbent mood inflicting the Republican Party.  Expect this race to move closer to the Democrats in the final week.  

Landrieu (LA) – Like Georgia 30% of the electorate is African-American.  Landrieu has also managed to win over a large bloc of Republicans in the past.  Many were ready to concede defeat here following Hurricane Katrina and the mass exodus of African-Americans.  However, most of those African-Americans appear to have returned home or resettled elsewhere in the state (Baton Rouge or Alexandria).  Kennedy, a former Democrat, has failed to catch traction.  In a desperate attempt, the NRSC has sought to label Landrieu as corrupt, tying her into Bill Jefferson and former Governor Edwin Edwards.  The last minute desperate attempt appears to be failing.  Once vulnerable, a little more safe is the end result.

Collins (ME) – Former Sen. George Mitchell appears in a recent ad endorsing Tom Allen.  The endorsement could definately make the race even more competitive since Mitchell is largely popular throughout Maine.  The anti-incumbent mood doesn’t apply here since both are virtually incumbents.  However, Maine is a Democratic state and Collins can not be guaranteed victory here.  An obvious liability for Collins may be the war in Iraq, which is largely unpopular here.  This race should definately tighten during the final week.

Coleman (MN) – The strangest race of the Senate cycle has avoided the issues for the most part.  Questions of Franken’s character came first, followed by questions of Coleman’s character.  Coleman clearly had the advantage until questions of his character were revealed.  The beneficiary of Coleman’s loss is surely Independent Barkley.  A strong Democratic turnout is surely expected, yet this will be an interesting race to watch on election night.  Which candidate will fall prey to Barkley’s gains?

Wicker (MS) – After years of working against the middle class, Wicker has transformed.  He suddenly appears concerned about the middle class strife.  Musgrove came out with a very effective ad and it surely should translate into votes.  A large African-American turnout, anti-incumbent mood, and Wicker’s short tenure and low name recognition outside Northern Mississippi, should give Musgrove a narrow advantage.  Another race that should develop, in the favor of Musgrove.

Lautenberg (NJ) – Not only is George Bush unpopular in the Garden State, so is Governor Corzine.  Republicans in the state are seeking to link Democrats, including Lautenberg, with Corzine at every turn.  This also explains why the two open Republicans seats have not moved into the Safe Democratic column.  Lautenberg’s age and lack of support in Southern New Jersey are two concerns.  Lautenberg’s base is Northern New Jersey and Central New Jersey is the balance between the North and South.  However, Zimmer has not been running a strong campaign.  He is clearly two conservative for the state and is instead attacking Lautenberg on earmarks.  For his part, Lautenberg is avoiding debates with Zimmer, clearly a strong strategy.  The last thing that Democrats need is for Lautenberg to mess up and create a unexpected race at the end.  Clearly a Lautenberg retirement would have been the best outcome for Democrats.  

Dole (NC) – Lizzy clearly was not wanting to run on the economy.  In fact, her first ad was about illegal immigration.  The social issue revolution does not exist and Lizzy has been placed on the defensive.  Unlike her first ad, Lizzy comes off as warm and compassionate.  There’s even a home in the background, ironic since many have questioned whether Lizzy even lives in the state.  Research done by a local newspaper indicated that she spent less than two months in an entire year residing in the state.  Several factors, other than Bush, are working against Lizzy.  The collapse of Wachovia, based in Charlotte, will surely translate into pink slips for many.  Lizzy did not vote for the bailout bill, one of the only bills, other than illegal immigration, which Bush presented which she refused to vote for.  The downward turn in the economy, Obama’s competiveness in the state, and her incumbency have all but guaranteed that Lizzy Dole is doomed.  Viagra Dole has come in to campaign for his wife, yet like Dorothy, both should be back in Kansas sometime soon.

Smith (OR) – Unlike previous years, Oregon has not been competive on the presidential level.  Merkley is an outsider in a state which clearly favors Democrats.  Recent attacks have been leveled against Smith regarding his employing of illegal immigrants.  The strategy is designed to alienate Smith from the conservative base which he can not afford to lose.  Unlike other Republicans, Smith has sought to move himself closer to Obama and even his fellow colleague, Senator Wyden.  Reaching out to his own base, while also Democratic leaning independents, is the strategy, yet it appears to be failing.

Graham (SC) – Normally a Democrat would have an uphill battle against Graham, yet Conley is running more to the right than Graham.  This is the same conservative Graham who moderated many of his positions when he reached the Senate.  Graham’s softening on illegal immigration was the main issue during the primary.  Conley’s far right stances has not won him praise from statewide or national Democrats, both are actually hoping he loses.  Ironic that Democrats are actually cheering for a Republican over a Democrat.  Once again, 30% of the electorate is African-American.  Conley is hoping that an awkward combination of straight party voting African-Americans and radical right Republicans in Greenville will help him win.  Graham continues to run as a conservative, hoping to keep the rate of desertion fairly low.  Graham needs to keep the upstate counties in his column, while also reaching out to African-Americans, a hard process in a state like this.  If Graham wins in Greenville, then Conley’s strategy would have been considered failed.

Alexander (TN) – One third of new registrations in June 2008 came from the nine counties Obama carried in the primary.  Only two, Shelby and Davidson, were major urban centers.  Democrats could have recruited a better candidate, yet Tuke is already starting to hit Alexander hard.  Not only does African-American turnout in Nashville and Memphis worry Alexander, so do several other factors: downward economy, his vote on the bailout, and gas shortages this past month in parts of the state.  Alexander clearly has the advantage, yet it is already weakening.

Cornyn (TX) – The economy goes bust and Big Oil’s fighter clearly goes boom.  Democratic nominee Noriega has military credentials, yet Cornyn should carry the Fort Hood vote in Waco.  Noriega should perform well in the Rio Grande Valley and El Paso due to the large Hispanic population.  He should also carry Austin and perform ahead of or even with Cornyn in San Antonio, Cornyn’s own hometown.  Noriega is hoping that a large Hispanic and African-American turnout in Dallas, Houston, and Beaumont will help him keep the race competitive until the end.  The panhandle and Eastern Texas are clearly strongholds for Cornyn.  However, Obama and Noriega should do fairly well in the Eastern Texas cities of Longview and Tyler.  Corpus Christi may also be close between both Cornyn and Noriega.  If Cornyn is not taking more than 60% of the vote in the panhandle and Eastern Texas, usually the first two areas to report returns on election night, then this could be a close race in the end.  Turnout from Hispanics and African-Americans will be key in determing whether Cornyn survives.  Clearly former congressman Jim Turner, a conservative Democrat from Eastern Texas, who also would have started out with $3 million remaining in the bank, would have been the stronger challenger.  Stopping the spicket on Exxon John would clearly be hailed as unprecedented.    

(Editors’ Note: These are NOT the Swing State Project’s official race ratings. There has been some confusion on this point in the past. SSP’s official House race ratings can be found here.)

Since the economic crisis has nullified the social issue agenda, more Republican incumbents are becoming vulnerable.  More seats (101 Republican seats in total or half of the entire Republican caucus) are at risk of being pink ticketed.  The downward trend in the stock market, gas shortages in the South, Obama’s surging campaign, voter registration favoring Democrats, and the bailout bill have all contributed to the addition of even more Republicans to the “at risk” list.

Based on this model if the election were held today, Republicans would lose 23 seats, with an additional 18 seats in the extremely vulnerable column.  The likelihood of Republicans losing 40 or more seats on election night is highly probable, yet thirty seats is more less a guarantee.  Races in the Likely/Leans or Leans/Toss Up are the races considered likely to have the most momentum in the final two weeks.  

Each rating shows the current incumbent followed by state, district, and the current party controlling the seat.  A double asterick represents a Democratic gain. (Following the ratings is an explanation detailing the few recent Republican additions to the list).  

Only two Democrat, Nick Lampson and Tim Mahoney, are considered likely to lose their seat.  The next five vulnerable Democrats are: Cazayoux, Boyda, Shea-Porter, Carney, and Kanjorski.  

Here are the ratings:

Republican Favored (Seats considered to be at risk based on known factor)

Dreier (CA-26 Rep)

Bono (CA-45 Rep)

Rohrbacher (CA-46 Rep)

Bilbray (CA-50 Rep)

Open Seat (CA-52 Rep)

Lamborn (CO-5 Rep)

Crenshaw (FL-4 Rep)

Brown-Waite (FL-5 Rep)

Stearns (FL-6 Rep)

Putnam (FL-12 Rep)

Kingston (GA-1 Rep)

Westmoreland (GA-3 Rep)

Linder (GA-7 Rep)

Biggert (IL-13 Rep)

Buyer (IN-4 Rep)

Latham (IA-4 Rep)

King (IA-5 Rep)

Scalise (LA-1 Rep)

Bartlett (MD-6 Rep)

Camp (MI-4 Rep)

Rogers (MI-8 Rep)

McCotter (MI-11 Rep)

Kline (MN-2 Rep)

Akin (MO-2 Rep)

Rehberg (MT-AL Rep)

LoBiondo (NJ-2 Rep)

Foxx (NC-5 Rep)

McHenry (NC-10 Rep)

Tiberi (OH-12 Rep)

Open Seat (PA-5 Rep)

Pitts (PA-16 Rep)

Wilson (SC-2 Rep)

Sessions (TX-32 Rep)

Hastings (WA-4 Rep)

Likely/Favored Republican (Seats considered vulnerable previously, yet less vulnerable now)

King (NY-3 Rep)

Turner (OH-3 Rep)

Open Seat (OH-7 Rep)

Murphy (PA-18 Rep)

Likely Republican (Seats considered vulnerable)

Rogers (AL-3 Rep)

Castle (DE-AL Rep)

Young (FL-10 Rep)

Buchanan (FL-13 Rep)

Ros-Lehtinen (FL-18 Rep)

Roskam (IL-6 Rep)

Open Seat (IL-18 Rep)

Boustany (LA-7 Rep)

LaTourette (OH-14 Rep)

Brown (SC-1 Rep)

McCaul (TX-10 Rep)

Goode (VA-5 Rep)

Capito (WV-2 Rep)

Likely/Leans Republican (Seats which were previously vulnerable, yet are becoming even more vulnerable)

Lungren (CA-3 Rep)

Bachmann (MN-6 Rep)

Terry (NE-2 Rep)

Heller (NV-2 Rep)

Garrett (NJ-5 Rep)

Gerlach (PA-6 Rep)

Dent (PA-15 Rep)

Culberson (TX-7 Rep)

Wolf (VA-10 Rep)

Leans Republican (Extremely vulnerable)

Shadegg (AZ-3 Rep)

Open Seat (CA-4 Rep)

Mahoney (FL-16 Dem)

Diaz-Balart, Mario (FL-25 Rep)

Souder (IN-3 Rep)

Open Seat (MO-9 Rep)

Drake (VA-2 Rep)

Leans Republican/Toss Up (Extremely vulnerable seats constantly shifting between Toss Up and Leans Republican)

Shays (CT-4 Rep)

Open Seat (KY-2 Rep)

Open Seat (NM-2 Rep)

Open Seat (NY-26 Rep)

Lampson (TX-22 Dem)

Reichert (WA-8 Rep)

Open Seat (WY-AL Rep)

Toss Up (Top Tier Races)

Open Seat (AL-2 Rep)

Kirk (IL-10 Rep)

Cazayoux (LA-6 Dem)

Open Seat (MD-1 Rep)

Graves (MO-6 Rep)

Schmidt (OH-2 Rep)

Open Seat (OH-16 Rep)

Toss Up/Leans Dem (Extremely vulnerable seats showing recent shifts from Toss Up to Leans Democrat)

Keller (FL-8 Rep) **

Diaz-Balart, Lincoln (FL-21 Rep) **

Boyda (KS-2 Dem)

Open Seat (MN-3 Rep) **

Shea-Porter (NH-1 Dem)

Open Seat (NJ-3 Rep) **

Carney (PA-10 Dem)

Leans Democrat (Extremely vulnerable)

Young (AK-AL Rep) **

Musgrave (CO-4 Rep) **

Feeney (FL-24 Rep) **

Marshall (GA-8 Dem)

Sali (ID-1 Rep) **

Open Seat (IL-11 Rep) **

Walberg (MI-7 Rep) **

Knollenberg (MI-9 Rep) **

Porter (NV-3 Rep) **

Open Seat (NJ-7 Rep) **

Open Seat (NM-1 Rep) **

Gillibrand (NY-20 Dem)

Open Seat (NY-25 Rep) **

Kuhl (NY-29 Rep) **

Hayes (NC-8 Rep) **

Chabot (OH-1 Rep) **

Open Seat (OH-15 Rep) **

English (PA-3 Rep) **

Kanjorski (PA-11 Dem)

Open Seat (VA-11 Rep) **

Kagen (WI-8 Dem)

Leans/Likely Democrat (Seats which were previously vulnerable, yet are becoming less  vulnerable)

Open Seat (OR-5 Dem)

Likely Democrat (Seats considered vulnerable)

Open Seat (AL-5 Dem)

Open Seat (AZ-1 Rep) **

Mitchell (AZ-5 Dem)

Giffords (AZ-8 Dem)

McNerney (CA-11 Dem)

Foster (IL-14 Dem)

Hill (IN-9 Dem)

Moore (KS-3 Dem)

Walz (MN-1 Dem)

Childers (MS-1 Dem)

Arcuri (NY-24 Dem)

Altmire (PA-4 Dem)

Sestak (PA-7 Dem)

Murphy (PA-8 Dem)

Democrat Favored (Seats considered to be at risk based on known factor)

Murphy (CT-5 Dem)

Bean (IL-8 Dem)

Yarmuth (KY-3 Dem)

Hodes (NH-2 Dem)

Bishop (NY-1 Dem)

Open Seat (NY-13 Rep) **

Hall (NY-19 Dem)

Pomeroy (ND-AL Dem)

Space (OH-18 Dem)

Davis (TN-4 Dem)

Rodriguez (TX-23 Dem)

Meet a few of the NEW additions:

Adam “Howdy Doody” Putnam (FL-12th)

Putnam has been part of the Republican leadership for the past eight years.  His district has also grown more Democratic, in large part to the growing Hispanic population of Poinciana and the college student population of Temple Terrace.  Senior citizens (aka: those that lost large investments courteousy of Putnam tailoring the Republican agenda) compose a large percentage of the population within the district.  Lakeland, the stomping ground of former Governor Lawton Chiles, is the epicenter of the district.  To Howdy Doody’s disadvantage, Democrats have a 20,000 voter registration advantage over Republicans.  However, to his advantage, or to the dismay of Polk County Democrats, a strong Democratic challenger had not stepped forward to challenge Howdy Doody.  Democrat Doug Tudor has attacked Putnam for vacationing in Nantucket, yet with very few funds in the bank, Tudor will have a hard time getting his message out.  His only hope, which is probable due to Putnam’s position in the Republican caucus, is to hope that Democrats and independents vote against Putnam, thereby giving Tudor their vote.  

Michael Castle (DE-AL)

Castle is the most noticeable recruiting failure on the part of the DCCC.  The state is largely Democratic, 46% of the electorate is registered as Democrats.  Working against Castle are several factors: Bush (the obvious), age (that which took down Sen. Roth in the past), a large African-American population, and the likelihood that turnout, including a large percentage of registered Democrats, will indeed turnout to vote.  The economic crisis also spells trouble for the state since they are largely dependent on banks incorporating within the state due to lax banking laws.  Castle normally takes 68% of the electorate on average, yet whether or not a solid Democratic electorate votes straight party is something which remains to be seen.

Lynn Westmoreland (GA-3)

Recently Westmoreland created controvery when he used a word which many took to be racist.  However, one should not worry, this is the same Westmoreland that wanted to mandate the posting of the Ten Commandments in public schools, yet when appearing on the Colbert Report, he struggled to even name one.  Westmoreland’s district is 17% minority and he should not have a hard time losing at least 99.99% of them.  However, the recent gas shortages in Georgia led many in the public to blame public officials for the crisis.  This in part could be a contributing factor in the narrowing of the US Senate race here.  While Westmoreland is likely to prevail against his poorly funded Democratic challenger, forcing him to stay home and learn the Ten Commandments may be worthwhile.

Joe Wilson (SC-2)

The demographics of the district are starting to pose a challenge.  Recent registration numbers indicate that 27% of the electorate is non-Caucasian.  Furthermore, Wilson’s challenger is Rob Miller, an Iraq War veteran.  Miller has managed to raise considerable funds in his quest to defeat Wilson, coming rather close in individual donations, yet still giving Wilson an advantage, courteousy of PAC’s.  Should the African-American electorate deliver, then Miller only needs a quarter of the Caucasian vote in order to defeat Wilson, not a difficult task, yet one which may require more attacks on Wilson.  Making the argument that Bush and Wilson’s high gas prices and free trade policies were contributing factors to the economic collapse (who said you have to tell the truth in politics, especially in SC, where religion triumps the issues at times) may be convincing.

Danny Rehberg (MT-AL)

Only in Big Sky Country have things seem to have gone the opposite direction.  The Republican Senate candidate wants to nationalize the oil companies, end the war in Iraq, and dissolve the US Congress in its current form.  The Democratic candidate against Rehberg hasn’t been much different.  He too wants to end the war in Iraq, but he also doesn’t want to spend a single dime winning the election, vowing to prove that office can be won without spending a single cent.  To the surprise of many, including the DCCC, John Driscoll won the House primary against a challenger whom actually spent money.  Driscoll’s message may resonate with voters, yet it would be the first of its kind if he did indeed prevail.  The most recent debate between all three candidates (yes there is a Libertarian also), was probably the most civil debate held amongst challengers.  All three practically agreed with eachother.  In fact, Democratic nominee Driscoll, even pledged to vote for Rehberg in November.  However, Rehberg is obviously disillusioned when it comes to the issues facing the country.  He stated that the two main issues were health care and illegal immigration (so much for that downward economy).  A Driscoll victory, while improbable, simply cannot be ruled out.  He’s proven he could win the primary, absent funding, and Rehberg’s proven that he’s been living in a glass bottle for the past eight years.

Pete Sessions (TX-32)

Dallas County has become more friendly to Democrats in recent years.  In fact, it has become so friendly that outside groups oppossed to immigration, have stated that 333,000 non-citizens are registered to vote in Texas, including a large number in Dallas County.  Of course, the nuts are basing this all on unreliable (non-Census) population projectings over the actual number of registered voters.  Obviously, right wingers have concerns.  The problem which is finally confronting these radicals is that Hispanics, of which 33% compose the population of Sessions district, are registering in large numbers.  However, since they’re Hispanic, it’s assumed they’re illegal according to the loose set of rules established by the right wing racists.  It surely takes an elementary education to even believe that illegals are running over the border simply to register to vote.  I guess it’s all part of the American dream.  Sessions had a rather dismal performance in 2006 and with a Libertarian sharing the ballot, the GOP is once again predicting an equally dismal performance.  However, should Sessions lose, then expect Republicans and their radical buddies to blame it on the illegal immigrants.    

Doc Hastings (WA-4)

Revelations that Hastings Chief of State pressured the US Attorney to investigate voter fraud in the 2004 gubernatorial race and to share details of the investigation with Hastings office, was sufficient enough for Hastings to be named one of the most corrupt members of Congress.  Subsequently, the US Attorney whom was pressured, was fired when he refused to disclose information to Hastings office.  For the first time, since the revelation had been disclosed, Hastings stands for re-election.  However, Jerry Lewis and Gary Miller, two other corrupt Republicans from California, seemed to have gotten a pass this year.  Hastings may also survive, yet his district is less Republican than either of them.  

The first sign of vulnerability for Ric Keller was in 2006 when he captured 53% of the vote in a contest featuring an opponent whom did not receive DCCC funding.  The second sign of vulnerability occurred in August of this year when Keller barely survived a primary challenge against a poorly financed, yet marginally known opponent, mostly due to Keller’s own personal attacks against Todd Long.  In fact, had Keller ignored Long, who posed very little threat until Keller sparked the fire, then he most likely would have performed better.  

However, the primary brought some discouraging news for Keller: his base in Lake County had largely deserted him.  Long had defeated Keller in Eustis, a conservative city favorable to Republicans.  The most Republican precinct in Lake County, precinct 32 in Eustis, favored Long over Keller.  The narrow victory Keller attained was mostly attributed to him outperfoming Long in Marion County, while not losing Orange County, where most of the eighth district voters are situated.  

Keller now faces his third challenge: the narrowing gap between Republicans and Democrats.  Outlined below are preliminary voter registration totals for the areas which are situated in the 8th Congressional District:

Lake County

R – 25,505

D – 18,161

O – 9,687  

Total Registered: 53,353

Marion County

D – 21,299

R – 21,902

O – 9,227

Total Registered: 52,428

Orange County

D – 117,919

R – 110,284

O – 75,178

Total Registered: 303,381

Osceola County

D – 1,186

R – 2,356

O – 1,384

Total Registered: 4,926

Overall Eighth District

D – 158,565

R – 160,047

O – 95,189

Total Registered: 414,088

The registration gap between Republicans and Democrats has been closing gradually here.  The separation is less than 1,500 voters, which has yet to include final book closings, since many registrations, most favorable to Democrats, continue to be processed.  This makes the 8th Congressional District one of the toss-up districts this year.  Even though the DCCC did not prefer Alan Grayson, nor have they spent here on his behalf, the election here is clearly against Ric Keller.  In order to prevail here Keller must achieve three tasks:

– Win overwhelmingly in Lake County, especially Eustis, the conservative base of the district.

– Win in Ocala, which is evenly split between Democrats and Republicans.

– Win over independents, women, and Hispanics in Orange County.  Women comprise 54% of the electorate in Orange County.

The final task will prove to be the most difficult for Keller.  The areas of Orange County where Keller must win are Azalea Park and Union Park, locations which are largely Hispanic and Democratic, yet also have a large number of Hispanics registered as independents.  The four precincts countywide with the largest voter registration separation between independent male and female voters are all situated in Azalea Park and Union Park.  Below are the four districts and their demographic breakdown based on overall registered voters:

Precinct 316 – Azalea Park.  55% female, 46% Hispanic, 8% African-American, and 1% Asian.

Precinct 323 – Azalea Park/Union Park.  52% female, 45% Hispanic, 7% African-American, and 2% Asian.

Precinct 454 – Union Park.  51% female, 30% Hispanic, 11% African-American, and 5% Asian.

Precinct 546 – Union Park.  48% female, 24% Hispanic, 10% African-American, and 4% Asian.  

**The last two are situated in neighboring “corrupt” Feeney territory.

In 2006, all successful statewide Republican candidates won in Precincts 316 and 323, except Harris and Keller.  Alex Sink and Charlie Stuart were the only Democrats to win here.  While some could say that Harris was a drag on Keller, due to their placement on the ballot, the likelihood is that Keller has been losing independents for some time.  In fact, ultra-conservative Bill McCollum, Keller’s own predecessor performed rather well in the two precincts which Keller lost.

Recently Keller has gone on the defensive, calling Grayson an ultra-liberal aligned with Code Pink, a woman’s organization protesting against the war.  Not to be outdone, Grayson has done what Long was encouraged to do, bring up Keller’s extra-maritial affair and the divorce that followed.  Keller’s attack is clearly designed to win back the base which he lost in the primary and in 2006, yet Grayson’s attack is designed to keep Keller’s base at bay, questioning his family value principles, while also seeking to win over independent women voters.  While nasty and unpredictable, due to the backlash which Keller suffered in the primary, Grayson appears to have the more effective strategy at the moment.  

In the final analysis the race will be decided by independent women voters and Hispanics.  Traditionally, Hispanics, mostly of Puerto Rican origin, have not turned out to vote.  However, this year may prove to be the exception.  If Hispanics turn out this year, as appears likely, and independent women voters continue turning against Keller, then a pink slip is coming Keller’s direction.  

I predict that it has already been mailed.  As for Feeney, his may have already been delivered.  Expect the NRCC to stop spending on his behalf in the coming week.      

President

McCain has conceded Michigan.  Expect Minnesota, New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania to come next week.

Therefore, the final states will be:

New Hampshire – McCain simply won’t concede this one, even though he’s clearly behind.

Colorado – This state will be fairly close.  It has a large military population in Colorado Springs, yet very liberal areas in Pueblo, Boulder, and Greeley.

Florida – Cubans in South Florida are reliably Republican, yet expect Obama to take a decent percentage.  Broward and Palm Beach are strong Democratic territory, along with Gainesville, Daytona Beach, and Tallahassee.

Jacksonville is evenly split since it has a large African-American population, but also a large military population also.  The Panhandle is reliable Republican territory, along with Fort Myers, Melbourne, and Naples.

Therefore, expect much of the campaigning in the final weeks to be centered in Orlando, Lakeland, Tampa, and Saint Petersburg.  This is the decisive territory for Florida.  The current trend for all these counties is favorable to Democrats, with the exception of Seminole and Lake Counties.

Missouri – McCain will continue campaigning here, yet I expect Obama will cut back a little to concentrate on the East Coast.

Saint Louis, Columbia, and Kansas City are the reliable Democratic areas.  Joplin and Springfield (Evangelical Country) are strong Republican.  Obama will only win here if he can bring out African-Americans, labor unions, and college students.  This race may be close, yet I expect McCain may have a slight advantage.

North Carolina – The state has never been considered competitive, yet the large African-American population and a large population of Northeasterner’s has all of a sudden made North Carolina worth fighting for.

Raleigh and Durham are the Democratic strongholds.  The inner cities of Greensboro and Charlotte should also favor Obama.  The suburbs of both cities however should favor McCain, along with Asheville and Winston-Salem.  Jacksonville and Fayetteville, areas with military populations, yet African-American populations, should give McCain a slight nod.  The northeastern part of North Carolina (Greenville, Rocky Mount, and Goldsboro) should also be relatively favorable to Obama.  The decisive factor here will be turnout, something which Obama is using to his advantage.

Indiana – The strong Democratic areas should be Lake and Porter counties (Chicago suburbs), Lafayette, Bloomington, and at least slightly half of Indianapolis.  South Bend may narrowly favor McCain.  Areas favorable to McCain will be downstate (Evansville and New Albany), South Bend, Terre Haute, and Columbus.  The state will be difficult for Obama to carry, yet simply forcing McCain to spend here makes it all worthwhile.

Nevada – Las Vegas should be strong for Obama and since most of the state’s voters are concentrated in Clark County, McCain will have a difficult time winning here.

Ohio – If it’s Jobs and the Economy, as it was in Michigan, then McCain is in serious trouble.  Every major city in the state should favor Obama, with the exception of the suburbs of Columbus and Cincinnati.  Dayton and Springfield may be the two cities that prove most challenging, yet Obama should do extremely well in Akron, Cleveland, Youngstown, and Toledo.  I see no way McCain will carry Ohio.  Simply not going to happen in 2008.

Virginia – The state’s changing demographics has turned a red state purple, expect Texas to be the next one to turn purple.  Northern Virginia is strong Democratic, along with Richmond and Petersburg.  Norfolk and Virginia Beach are strong Republican, yet expect Obama to take significant votes here, largely due to African-Americans.  Roanoke and Lynchburg are most likely favorable to McCain.  Richmond, most of Northern Virginia, and close to half of the Norfolk-Virginia Beach population is good enough for Obama to prevail, absent the rural votes.

Expect Obama to compete for two other areas which McCain see’s in his column: The Omaha congressional district and Montana.

Montana is favorable to Democrats in the Indian Reservations and Missoula.  Billings, the largest city, is the lone Republican stronghold.  If McCain is forced to spend here at the last minute, then he’s in deep trouble.

Some were FOR it and some were AGAINST it.  

The bailout is the only feasible option in fixing the downward spiral which is impacting our economy.  Yes, we are headed toward recession, yet it is not the type of recession that economists normally predict or expect.  It is a RECESSION of enormous magnitude.  The timing, prior to the holiday season, is going to result in massive layoffs in all industries – construction, financial services, and the service industry – being the most susceptible.  The economy is dependent on consumer spending in the fourth quarter, yet it is unlikely that such spending will arrive this year, compliments of congressional incompetence and presidential failure.

Some members of Congress voted based on politics, while others understood that there simply was no other alternative.  “Free market” Republicans expect the market to correct itself.  Government intervention is simply wrong.  Ironically, these are the same Republicans that said NO to regulation and oversight under the Bush administration, thereby providing an assist in pushing us into this current environment.  When will they understand that a hemorraging market requires the ER and not simply an aspirin?

Then there are members on the other side, particularly the Congressional Black Caucus, who want the government to bail out homeowners, not Wall Street.  Unfortunately, while it sounds fine and well serving, a failure in bailing out Wall Street will leave these same homeowner’s without a place to call home.  

If the credit situation is left to the “free market” then expect continued layoffs, financial failures, foreclosures, and congressional politics.  Small businesses CANNOT function without the credit lines necessary for growth and expansion.  The construction industry, already slowing, will grow to a halt as credit lines dry up.  If these businesses fail, then unemployment will only continue to climb.  Homeowners will then be saddled in larger debt without an avenue out.

It’s imperitive that the political thinking behind such a rescue plan understand that the middle class suffers if no action is taken.  Retirement accounts and 401K’s essentially become worthless.  Stocks are now a thing of the past since the volatility in the markets has spooked individuals to seek a quick exit and other more stable alternatives.  Expect the fall of hedge funds to be next.  Many will simply collapse in the next three weeks under the panic of “give me my money.”  Which ailing bank will be the next to fall under extreme pressure?  Fifth Third? SunTrust?  These bank failures are shaking the resolve of the public, yet Congress continues to play politics on both sides of the aisle.  

When will people realize that it is not about Wall Street.  It’s about our jobs, our homes, and the small businesses which have struggled under this failed administration and the Republican puppets which ceded much of their power to King George.

Unfortunately, in a rush to pass the bailout plan, Congress failed to sell it to the public.  There was no Donald Trump, Michael Bloomberg, Bill Gates, or Warren Buffet to step up to the plate.  Convincing the American public that Congress is acting in the best intent of taxpayers is what has been missing.  The Republican delay tactics did succeed in convincing the public that it was a Wall Street and not Main Street bailout.  Conservative commentators, such as Glenn Beck, even understood that the bailout, while undesirable, was the only viable option.  Wall Street may be in New York, yet its reach extends across all neighborhoods of this nation.

Americans need to meet reality and understand that the pastry shop around the corner is dependent on banks for their future growth.  High school students are dependent on banks for college loans.  Local and state governments are also dependent on banks for higher yields on taxpayer investments.  How can any of these occur without government intervention.  If we allow the current situation to remain unfixed and sit back patiently for the arrival of the free market, then expect the following:

– Higher property taxes.  Cities and counties cannot simply reduce their budgets without making drastic cuts, whether it be to schools or public services.  Foreclosed properties not only impact the equity in surrounding properties, but it also strains the tax revenue of local jurisdictions.

– Mega monopolies.  Such is already occurring and yet, while we’re fixing a current problem, we are also creating a future problem.  Allowing a handful of banks to sature markets.  Monopolies are not and have not been consumer friendly.  We must provide strength to struggling banks and not simply allow the monsters (Chase, Citibank, and Bank of America)to consume their operations.

– Higher unempolyment.  The financial service industry has already begun the trend.  Expect construction and the service industry to follow very close behind.  Most of manufacturing has already been outsourced and the agricultural industry has been dwindling even prior to this crisis.

While I am a firm believer in less government, I also understand the severity of our current situation.  I also believe that NO government intervention, as the “free marketers” desire, is largely responsible for our current problem.  In this bailout, the government is purchasing assets – bad mortgage loans.  There is a risk, yet the risk is low.  The likelihood is that the properties will sell at a purchase price greater than the loan itself.  Once the property is sold the government would then dispose itself of the bad loan and keep the amount that it invested.  The only bad aspect to this is that we have now made the federal government the largest depositer in the nation.  However, to somehow expect banks to handle the severity of the situation on their own is ridiculous.  They are the parties that have placed us in this perilous situation in the first place.  

To expect banks to take out insurance on the bad mortgages, as the free marketers have proposed, is also crazy.  Who would want to insure a bad investment?  Didn’t the insurance rates of homeowners in Florida and Louisiana go up as a result of Hurricane Andrew and Katrina?  Therefore, it’s easy to conclude that the insurance rates on these bad loans would have very high premiums.  The result is that consumers, those holding accounts at such banks, would then be charged the additional costs.  The insurance proposal also does not provide the immediate fix that the economy requires.  Rebates to taxpayers also does not since it does not address the real problem – the inability to secure credit.

It may take more slides in the stock market and the collapse of hedge funds before Congress understands that the time for politics has expired.  The only certainty from this whole crisis is that Bush has been assured his place in history.  Herbert Hoover must finally be relieved!!!      

Minority Leader said he would deliver and YES he did indeed…Here are 14 votes which Boehner should have had:

David Davis – Defeated in primary and is NOT standing for re-election.  Voted NO.

Jerry Weller – Retiring and yet he doesn’t even show up for the vote.

David Reichert – Seattle based Washington Mutual collapsed and unlike Shays and Kirk, both who represent districts dependent on the financial services, Reichert’s district is also dependent, yet he votes NO.

Louie Gohment, Jeb Hensarling, Michael Conway, and Ted Poe – None are facing an opponent and ALL are Bush prodigies from Texas, yet four more NO votes.

Scott Garrett – Another district that employs many on Wall Street and the financial service industry.  Another NO vote.

Judy Biggert – One again another district dependent on the financial service industry and another NO vote.

Kevin McCarthy – No opponent this year and yet another NO vote.

Ginny Brown-Waite – Represents the district with the largest concentration of retirees.  Wonder if she knows that their retirement investments are becoming worthless.  Another NO vote.

Duncan Hunter – Retiring and represents a strong Republican district.  Voting NO once again.

Lee Terry – Hopefully Warren Buffet will turn out the brigades to finally defeat your incompetence.  Another NO vote.

Chris Smith – Another district dependent on the financial services.  Expect this race to tighten as a result of Smith’s NO vote.

Vulnerable Republicans that voted YEA:

Chris Shays and Mark Kirk – Both districts highly dependent on financial service industry.

Peter King – A NO vote would have had disastrous effects on King.

Frank Wolf and Jon Porter – Democratic leaning districts and vulnerable more than ever.

Democrats who are largely SAFE which bucked the party.  They also represent districts which are sufferring:

– A large number from the Congressional Black Caucus (Butterfield, Jackson, Jackson Lee, Conyers, Cummings, Green, Edwards, Clay, Johnson, Payne, Thompson, Lee, Rush, Scott, Lewis, Kilpatrick, and Watson).

– A large number of Hispanic members also bucked the party (Baca, Napolitano, Pastor, Serrano, Roybal-Allard, Linda Sanchez, Becerra, and Solis).  These would have provided a decent number of votes as well.

– Then there are of course the Democrats facing no opponent that also voted NO (Lynch and Delahunt from MA, AND Welch from VT).

Pelosi definately didn’t do a good job winning over these coalitions.  Those alone would have passed the bill.  Enough blame for BOTH sides.

The last issue John McCain wanted to run on was the economy.  In fact, Republicans spent their first full summer in Washington pushing their election agenda: DRILL, DRILL, DRILL.  It seems that Republicans may have indeed accomplished something for once.  They’re slowly starting to DRILL themselves out of office courteousy of the Financial Meltdown of 2008.

As a result of the financial bailout and the thousands of jobs that have been or are expected to be lost, let’s look at incumbents who have become more vulnerable as a result:

Mark Kirk (IL), Chris Shays (CT), and Dave Reichert (WA).  All three represent Democratic affluent suburbs of major cities.  Chicago is sufferring the same woes as New York’s Wall Street and the collapse of Washington Mutual, based in Seattle, will translate into massive job losses for the Seattle area.  (This also does not translate well for Gov. Gregoire’s re-election).  Expect supporters for all three to sit this election out.  All three also have no choice, but to support a Wall Street bailout.

Scott Garrett (NJ).  He has proven to be an ineffective congressman since taking office.  If he fails to support a Wall Street bailout, where many of his affluent constituents hold jobs, then expect this race to change dramatically.

Bill Sali (ID), Jean Schmidt (OH), and Marilyn Musgrave (CO).  All three are infamous for pushing social agendas throughout their congressional careers.  Now that the economy has become the central focus and none of the three are expected to respond correctly, expect all three to find PINK slips come November.

Robin Hayes (NC).  Trade deals do indeed SUCK.  Now the electorate, with a large African-American turnout, will finally push Hayes to the curb.

Mark Walberg (MI) – The economy is going downward and Michigan has been sufferring greatly.  Walberg is gone already.

Jon Porter (NV), Ileana Ros-Lehtninen, Mario Diaz-Balart (FL), and Lincoln Diaz-Balart (FL).  All four represent areas with dwindling home values and skyrocketing insurance rates (in the case of Florida).  While Mario may survive, don’t expect Lincoln to prevail.  Ros-Lehtninen’s opponent has also sharpened her attacks against Ros-Lehtninen.  A ballot measure banning gay marriage statewide may increase voter turnout in South Beach and Key West, against Ros-Lehtninen by a constituency she has carried in the past.  In short, Porter is fried.

Don Young (AK) and Tom Feeney (FL).  Both are infamous for their ties to lobbyists.  A change in Congress will ensure both are swept back home.  I expect that Young staffers are already submitting resumes online.

Tom Latham (IA) – Obama is clearly doing well in Iowa and McCain is against ethanol subsidies.  The district is also Democratic leaning and has several colleges.  Who are you supporting again Tom?  

Michelle Bachmann (MN) – She spent her summer visiting ANWR, instead of her own district.  The Independent Party clearly wants her gone, as does the Democratic Party.  She wanted to run on DRILL here..DRILL now, but that all seems to have vanished.  Bachmann is so entrenched with Big Oil that she even stated that oil drilling should fix the economy.  How did voters even place a nutjob like this in office?

Lee Terry (NE), Phil English (PA), Ric Keller (FL), Sam Graves (MO), Randy Kuhl (NY), and Mark Souder (IN). All six have shown vulnerabilities in the past.  Including close races against poorly funded challengers or ineffective constituent services.  Changing demographics accompanied by an increase in Obama turnout could spell the end for all six.

Republicans that are currently not considered extremely vulnerable, yet could indeed be brought down with the financial crisis (due to their closeness with the Bush administration and proximity to areas being affected by the economic turndown):

– David Dreier (CA)

– Judy Biggert (IL)

– Peter King (NY)

– Jim Gerlach (PA)

– Charles Dent (PA)

– Bill Young (FL)

And then there is the infamous Bush “foot soldiers” who could indeed be placing themselves in perilous waters:

– Adam Putnam (FL) – His district currently has a Democratic voter registration advantage.

– John Shadegg (AZ) – He may actually get to retire early as he desired.

– Stephen Buyer (IN) – If seen as hijacking the bailout, Buyer could pay the consequences.

Of course there are vulnerable Democrats as well.  The five most vulnerable (in order of vulnerability):

1. Nick Lampson

2. Nancy Boyda

3. Tim Mahoney

4. Carol Shea-Porter

5. Chris Carney

**Kanjorski is vulnerable, yet he should narrowly get by.

As for the Senate, expect Republican losses galore:

– Ted Stevens indictment will spell the end for him.

– Libby Dole wanted to run on a “Hate the Hispanic” campaign, but clearly voters are not interested.  Bye bye Libby.

– Gordon Smith will have great difficulty distancing himself from Bush.  Ohhh…too BAD!!!

– The breakthrough Franken needed was Norm Coleman and his failure to regulate the Bush presidency.  Expect an upward trend toward Franken in the next polling, yet very little upward.

– John Sununu should contact Santorum and see how it felt to lose so badly.

– Mitch McConnell is entrenched with Bush and will not survive.  Expect polls to show Mitch behind in the coming weeks and early voting already had begun on the eclipse of economic disaster.  (Expect the DSCC to pull out of Maine and show Mitch more attention).

Democrats have essentially already secured VA, NM, and CO.  A 9 seat pickup is now REALITY.  

However, expect Lautenberg (NJ) to turn out to be more vulnerable than Landrieu (LA).