Well, for starters it isn’t Lieberman (sure he would have taken Jewish voters from Democrats, yet he couldn’t even win Connecticut). It’s also not Huckabee, while he certainly had appeal with Southern conservatives, Huckabee never showed a strong detail to the important issues.
Let’s break it down by who is least likely to most likely from the remaining three competitors:
3. Gov. Pawlenty – Sure he was Governor when a major bridge collapsed. Remember it’s tax cuts for the wealthy over repairing infrastructure. He also would be a weak debater against Biden. Young and youthful indeed, yet his credentials are not that strong.
2. Millionaire Mitt – He never wanted to be second (he wanted to be first). Mitty brings a lot of challenges. First, he would overshadow McCain at times. Second, he owns an equal number of properties as McCain, and finally, if McCain is using Clinton’s words against Obama, then by selecting Romney he sets up an even exchange for Democrats. Sorry Mitt, not this time. Probably not NEVER.
1. Tom Ridge – The fact that McCain is holding his announcement in Dayton and suburban Pittsburgh makes it highly likely that Ridge is the candidate. Ridge was a former congressman, governor, and Homeland Security Secretary. He would be a much stronger debater against Biden, unlike the previous two. Whether or not Ridge helps McCain in Pennsylvania remains to be seen. Pennsylvania can be broken down by the following:
Pittsburgh (city) – Obama
Pittsburgh (suburbs) – McCain
Erie – McCain (with Ridge)
Warren – McCain
Altoona – McCain
Johnstown – McCain
State College – Obama
Harrisburg (city) – Obama
Harrisburg (suburbs) – McCain
Lebanon – McCain
Lancaster (city) – Obama
Lancaster (suburbs) – McCain
York (city) – 50/50 Split
York (suburbs) – McCain
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre – McCain
Allentown/Bethlehem – Obama
Williamsport – McCain
Reading – Obama
Philadelphia (city) – Obama
Philadelphia (suburbs) – Obama
**Most votes would come from Obama strongholds versus McCain strongholds, thereby Obama still leads. Ridge only brings one area realistically into McCain’s column – Erie, Ridge’s hometown.
Honorable mentions, but no reward this year:
Guiliani – Too much baggage. Starting with his divorce from his wife and including moving in with a gay couple following the divorce (enough to anger religious fanatics).
Portman – Serving in the Bush administration is a liability in itself, regardless of the capacity. Unlike Ridge, who left early and was not in the budget office, Portman was in office when Bush’s popularity plumetted and he helped draft the Bush budgets.