Americans have an obsession with lists. Especially lists that rank things. Whether it’s sports, or politics, or cell-phone plans, or sushi restaurants, it seems that the best way to provoke a debate is to rank a bunch of something.
Which is why political pundits love to rank U.S. Senate races. But the problem is, most of them use the wrong criteria.
Most Senate race rankings are ranked with the seats “most likely to change parties” at the top. But that’s neither interesting or useful.
The Virginia seat is the most likely to flip this year; Mark Warner’s going to crush Jim Gilmore. We get it. But at this point in the cycle, who cares?
Unless you’re a D.C. corporate lobbyist trying to figure out where to invest your client’s money, the “most likely to flip” ranking doesn’t matter.
Instead, if you’re an activist donor – a member of the netroots – the question before you is this: Where will my money make the most difference? Which race is at a tipping point? Which race needs “all hands on deck”?
Over at Pollster.com, they’ve done an amazing job of compiling all the available polls – and assembling a combined trend analysis.
Here’s a table that ranks all the U.S. Senate races by closeness:
| Rank | Sept 22 | State | Democrat | % | Republican | % | margin |
1  |
1 | OR | Merkley | 42.3 | Smith | 42.2 | +0.10 |
| 2 |
2 | NC | Hagan | 43.1 | Dole | 42.3 | +0.80 |
| 3 |
3 | AK | Begich | 48.3 | Stevens | 45.5 | +2.80 |
| 4 |
4 | MN | Franken | 41.3 | Coleman | 45.1 | -3.80 |
| 5 |
5 | CO | M. Udall | 44.7 | Schaeffer | 39.2 | +5.50 |
5  |
8 | NH | Shaheen | 49.4 | Sununu | 43.9 | +5.50 |
7  |
6 | MS-B | Musgrove | 42.4 | Wicker | 49.6 | -7.20 |
| 8 |
7 | NJ | Lautenberg | 47.6 | Zimmer | 39.1 | +8.50 |
| 9 |
11 | KY | Lunsford | 38.8 | McConnell | 50.1 | -11.30 |
| 10 |
9 | TX | Noriega | 38.1 | Cornyn | 51.8 | -13.70 |
| 11 |
10 | NM | T. Udall | 55.1 | Pearce | 41.4 | +13.70 |
| 12 |
15 | SC | Conley | 37.8 | Graham | 52.8 | -15.00 |
| 13 |
12 | LA | Landrieu | 56.0 | Kennedy | 40.8 | +15.20 |
| 14 |
14 | GA | Martin | 36.6 | Chambliss | 52.3 | -15.70 |
| 15 |
13 | ME | Allen | 39.6 | Collins | 55.7 | -16.10 |
| 16 |
16 | IA | Harkin | 56.8 | C. Reed | 38.4 | +18.40 |
| 17 |
17 | OK | Rice | 36.3 | Inhofe | 55.2 | -18.90 |
| 18 |
24 | KS | Slattery | 36.2 | Roberts | 56.8 | -20.60 |
| 19 |
18 | ID | LaRocco | 31.8 | Risch | 52.5 | -20.70 |
| 20 |
19 | IL | Durbin | 57.6 | Sauerberg | 35.3 | +22.30 |
| 21 |
20 | NE | Kleeb | 35.4 | Johanns | 58.5 | -23.10 |
| 22 |
21 | MI | Levin | 56.2 | Hoogendyk | 32.8 | +23.40 |
| 23 |
23 | MS-A | Fleming | 33.5 | Cochran | 58.5 | -25.00 |
| 24 |
22 | VA | Warner | 57.9 | Gilmore | 32.3 | +25.60 |
| 25 |
25 | MA | Kerry | 57.0 | Beatty | 29.3 | +27.70 |
| 26 |
26 | SD | Johnson | 61.3 | Dykstra | 32.4 | +28.90 |
| 27 |
27 | TN | Tuke | 29.2 | Alexander | 59.3 | -30.10 |
| 28 |
28 | AL | Figures | 30.7 | Sessions | 60.9 | -30.20 |
| 29 |
29 | MT | Baucus | 64.0 | Kelleher | 31.0 | +33.00 |
| 30 |
30 | RI | J. Reed | 72.0 | Tingle | 20.0 | +52.00 |