Author: mikeel

As you may already know, Darcy Burner’s home was destroyed by fire this morning.  

Some questions:

1.  Is she dropping out of the race?

2.  If she stays in, how will this impact the race?  Does she get a “sympathy” bounce?

3.  If she drops out, who’s going to run?

I’m of the opinion that Darcy wasn’t the greatest

candidate, but there may not be a credible replacements.

There’s a interesting mayor’s race going on in San Diego.  Jerry Sanders is the incumbent with some ethical issues.  Steve Francis is running as the outsider using only his own money.  Both are Republicans.

Francis had been gaining ground until the latest SUSA poll: (5/1 in parentheses)

Sanders  42% (40)

Francis  35% (36)

There are a few minor candidates on the ballot.

This looks it’s going to a runoff.  Now San Diego hasn’t had a Democratic mayor since ___.

And both candidates are getting really nasty with attack ads.

Despite a nearly even split in partisan registratinon in the city, the GOP has dominated local politics.  It’s a shame a Democrat can’t step up to the plate.  Then there could be some real change.

I think the problem is because of the libertarian

bent of the area, and among large cities in America, immigration is a hot button here.

Any thoughts?

Could it be that among the Senate races this year, that New Jersey would be more likely to flip than Louisiana?

With Crowley in, Sen. Lautenburg’s lackluster ratings come home to roost.  He could have a tough time agasinst a strong bio candidate.

Some considerations for this race:

1.  How will the Democratic priamry impact the fall election?  The worst result for Democrats is a realtively narrow (<15%) win for Lautenburg.

I can see quite a few crossovers to Crowley.  

2.  Would Rob Andrews be a stronger candidate?

From my distant view,  I would think so.  Now I know that Andrews is not as progressive, but he’s younger and would be better suited to take on Crowley, especially if Crowley is pushed to the right.  But he has to overcome the Democratic establishment and a 30+ deifict to win the primary.

3.  Where does Crowley stand on the issues?  Is he going to run as a social moderate, but fiscal conservative?  

4.  Much will depend on McCain’s strength in NJ.  If he carries the state or comes close, Crowley wins.  He is McCain’s candidate and fit his “Service to America” theme.

In short, if this wasn’t supposed to be a Democratic year, I’d rate this Lean Republican.  So I think it’s a tossup.

The spat between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama shows no sign of ending anytime soon.  McCain is going to win this election, likely by 6-10%.  Obama is damaged goods and Hillary’s negative are simply too high.  I believe voters are in the process of rejecting both candidates.

And I don’t think there’s a realistic way of getting through McCain’s huge teflon coating and getting swing voters to doudt his :maverick” image.

So how does this impact the Congressional elections?  Right now, not yet.  But it’s important that this long battle between Obama and Clinton could weaken the Democratic brand.  And I actually think Barack Obama would more of a drag on downballot races than Clinton would be.

I know that’s contrary to the CW, but I just don’t think Hillary Clinton is as radioactive to other Democrats.

So the leaders of the DSCC and DCCC have to make a decision.  How and when to separate from the presidential race?  And waht about the 527s who are about to pour millions in to a likely hopeless presidential election?  Will they save enough for House and Senate races?

So I’m ready to forget about the presidential election and concentrate on Congress.  Then, what’s the best way do this?

1.  The fundamental dynamics still favor Democrats.  We must still run on the economy, offering relief from the foreclosure crisis and ending giveaways.  I would like to see a united Democratic proposal on health care.

2.  Instead of just opposing Iraq, emphasize our opposition to Republicans’ “war-first” approach, and tie the current economic climate to this costly war on Iraq.

3.  Most importantly, we can’t run away from Democratic values and principles.  On most issues, the Democrats are still favored.

4.  More leadership needs to forthcoming, starting with the removal of Debbie Dubya from the Red-to-Blue Committee.  That’s an unconscionable conflict of interest.

Any other thoughts?  I know, writing off the Presidency is a huge step, but we may have to settle for winning enough seats in Congress to keep McCain in check (that’s another issue for another post).

Jeanne Shaheen has bounced back in the latest ARG

poll, taking a 47% to 33% lead over John Sununu.

The swing is nearly all from independents, who now favor Shaheen 61-13(!).  And 26% of independents are undecided, so they will decide the race as Sununu wins GOP voters 81-1.

I think race has a lot more twists and turns (and swings) ahead.

Perennial candidate Tom McClintock has decided to enter the GOP primary in California’s fourth district.  He’s moving over 400 miles from his home base of Thousand Oaks to this district northeast of Sacramento.

Ose is considered a relative moderate, so this could help our chances in this very red district.

Any thoughts?

Found these two:

In IN-07, from Gsuge Market Research (2/16-2/17),

Andre Carson leads Jon Elrod 54%-36%.

In IL-14, from Global Strategy Group (D), (2/21-2/24), Bill Foster leads Jim Oberweis 45%-41%.

 

So is IN-7 safer now?  And does Foster have a real chance IN-14?   What do you think?

A new Zogby poll shows less than 40% believe Sen. Chambliss deserves reelection.  http://www.zogby.com/news/Read…

While I suspect this is an internal Democratic polls, perhaps this seat is in play.  Previous polling has been consistent in sshowing a big lead for Chambliss.  And after the blind bio questions are read, Lanier actually leads 47%-45%.

Is this another Zogby hoax, or is there real hope here?