I find any poll showing Brown with a lead as highly doubtful and the reason is apparent: young and minority voters are usually under-represented in such polls. Massachusetts is one state where young and minority voters tend to have strong turnout. Here’s the places where Coakley must perform strong:
1. Boston – The city is a strong base for Democrats and Coakley must have a strong turnout in order to offset potential losses elsewhere.
2. Minority rich cities outside Boston –
These cities include:
Springfield MSA (particularly Springfield and Holyoke) has the largest concentration of Puerto Ricans (as a percentage) outside of Puerto Rico. Springfield is 28% Hispanic and 23% African-American, making it a minority majority city. Holyoke is 42% Hispanic.
Lawrence which is 61% Hispanic.
Brockton which is 25% African-American and 8% Hispanic.
Lowell which is 20% Asian and 15% Hispanic.
Lynn which is 20% Hispanic.
Worcester which is 16% Hispanic.
Cambridge which is 15% African-American and 8% Hispanic.
**The New Bedford-Fall River-Attleboro MSA (area bordering Rhode Island) is likely to fall favorable to the challenger.
3. Gay friendly towns – Three towns stand out here:
Provincetown
South Hadley (home to Mount Holyoke, an all-female school)
Northampton (home to Smith College, an all-female school).
4. College Towns
Amherst – UMASS, Amherst and Hampshire Colleges.
Cambridge – Harvard, MIT, and Cambridge College.
Dartmouth – UMASS
Medford – Tufts
Waltham – Bentley and Brandeis Universities.
Wellesley – Babson and Wellesley.
5. Berkshire Region – While very rural, the area is home to many aspiring artists and has an artsy atmosphere to it. Pittsfield and Great Barrington are quaint New England towns, yet very much liberal. North Adams is where Coakley lived as a child. Greenfield, while not technically within the Berkshires, yet 20 minutes from the Vermont border, should also be in favor of Coakley.
Key areas that may be competitive:
Cape Area (excluding Provincetown) – slight advantage for Coakley
Suburbs of Worcester – slight advantage for Brown
South of Boston (excluding Brockton) – break even
Leominster-Fitchburg-Gardner MSA – break even
North of Boston (excluding Lawrence, Lowell, and Lynn) – slight advantage for Brown
Coakley must win strong in Boston, turnout the voters in the minority cities and college towns, and perform strong in both Western Massachusetts and the Cape Cod area. If she is capable in doing this, then she can narrowly pull off a victory. However, if Brown is winning by more than 5% in the suburbs of Worcester and North of Boston, then red flags should be going up. Coakley must perform evenly with Brown, within 5% points in these areas, in order to pull off a narrow victory.