Author: redistrictersanon

This was a thought experiment in response to those in the previous diary who wanted a district from Eastern Mass eliminated. I stated that it would make map look super gerrymandered, because Western Mass really can only support 2 districts. You can see it here, as Olver’s district goes all the way east to Marlborough and the town of Harvard, and McGovern’s district goes east and south more heavily than before.  

Olver (blue) takes in Amherst, the Berkshires, and goes east to get all the northern suburbs of Worcester and Fithburg.

Neal (green) loses Northampton (or else Olver would have to take even more territory in the east). Stays a Springfield centric district, and takes in the Southern Worcester Suburbs. Worcester gets split three ways because of this map.

Tsongas (red) gets Lowell, Lawrence, Haverhill, Newburyport and goes further south than before towards Lexington.

Tierney (teal) keeps a district based around Salem, Revere, Lynn and Peabody. Takes in Charlestown too I believe, everything North of the city of Boston.

Markey (yellow) gets Medford, Malden, Somerville, Cambridge, Allston, Brighton, Waltham, Watertown and Natick.

Lynch (grey) gets most of the city of Boston proper, as well as Milton and Brockton. He loses most of his suburban areas such as Stoughton and Norwood. District is 50 % white. He would be vulnerable to a primary challenge.  

Frank (green) gets Brookline, Needham, Newton, Dedham and then goes through Taunton to New Bedford.

McGovern (purple) district takes in Worcester proper, goes east to Framingham then through Holliston, Attleboro to Fall River.

Keating (light blue) takes in Quincy and goes down to Barnstable County. Also has Wareham, Plymouth and Weymouth.

I think I definately prefer the first map, this almost looks like a mini-bacon mander. I hope this proves that Olver has to be the one that goes, from a perspective of that is where the population just says a seat has to disappear. This way, instead of having two solidly W Mass seats, you have Neal as the only person truly in the W Mass area. McGovern and Olver both have huge chunks of population outside of W/C Mass, esp McGovern.  

Did this map assuming that the Mass redistricting cmte decides to get rid of Olver, or gently force him into retirement. Mass is hard to draw because Keating lives in Quincy, which means that no matter what SE Mass looks ugly. If O’Leary had won that primary, map could be a lot cleaner. The only way to clean SE mass would be to toss Keating and Lynch into a primary, which then creates an open seat in Barnstable (and wouldnt solve the seat elimination problem)

The map eliminates a district by parcelling out Olver’s district between McGovern, Neal and Tsongas. No PVI’s available, but lets assume they are all safe D. Let me know if they are otherwise (Tsongas’ district might be close to a tossup, not sure.)

Also tried to not split counties, towns etc.

Out west, CD 1 (Blue) has Springfield, Amherst (olvers home) and the Mountain towns. NEAL

CD 2 (Green) takes in most of Worcester County, Franklin County and a little of Berkshire County. McGOVERN.

CD 3 (purple) takes in Fitchburg from Olver, Lowell and most of N Middlesex county. Loses Lawrence and Metheun to Tierney. TSONGAS

CD 4 (red) takes in almost all of Essex county. Just about contiguous with county lines. TIERNEY  

CD 5 (yellow) takes in Medford/Malden area, goes around to Waltham, Watertown, Framingham. MARKEY

CD 6 (dark green) takes in Somerville, Cambridge and 3/4 of Boston. It is exactly 50 % white. CAPUANO

CD 7 (crimson) takes in some of Boston (loses a little bit of that base to Capuano), Norwood, Taunton and Brockton. The non-Boston area stays pretty similar to current district. LYNCH

CD 8 (grey) takes in Franks home base in Needham/Newton/Brookline area, and sweeps down to take Fall River (from McGovern) and New Bedford (which he currently represents). FRANKS

CD 9 (light blue) takes in Barnstable county, the eastern half of plymouth county (Plymouth and Weymouth) and snakes up into Quincy, where Keating lives. KEATING

Ok, I drew this one of New York. This seems more likely to happen, as Cuomo has said he would veto any gerrymandered map. Also, if they pass an independent redistricting bill then this becomes a possibility too. Tried to split as few counties as possible. In NYC, protected the VRA districts of Clarke, Serrano, Meeks and Towns. With the majority-minority districts (Velasquez, Crowley) they move but keep that status. Tried not take incumbents into consideration at all.  

Ok lets start again in West NY:

27 (TEAL): Higgins gets a compact Buffalo based district. 62 % Obama. SAFE D

26 (BLACK): Chris Lee’s ex district. Sucks in all the area in between Rochester and Buffalo. 46% Obama. STRONG R.

5 (YELLOW): Slaughter gets a district which is most of Monroe County. Obama 58.5%. STRONG D. This could theoretically be competitive when Slaughter retires, but probably not.

25 (PINK): Finger lakes district for Tom Reed. Obama 46 %. STRONG R.

24 (PURPLE): District with Syracuse and Ithaca. Mayor of Syracuse would prob win this one. Obama 59%. Contains the SW portion of Richard Hanna’s district, but not his hometown of Utica. SAFE D

23 (LIGHT BLUE): This contains the 6 North Country counties, as well as Utica and Rome. Obama 52%. Richard Hanna would probably run here versus Bill Owens. Lean D.

20 (PALE PINK): This contains the adirondeck areas: Schnectedy, Saratoga Spring, Glens Falls and Lake George are here. Scott Murphy would probably run here. Chris Gibson currently represents this area, but lives in the Southern part of the district. Obama 49 %. TOSSUP.

22 (BROWN): Contains Binghamton and the Catskill area. Hinchey’s hometown of Ithaca is in the Syracuse district, but most of the area he represents is in this district. Dems might be better off with a different candidate though. Obama 54%. Lean D.

21 (MAROON): Contains Albany, Troy, and parts east of the Hudson down to Pougkipsie and Hyde Park. Gibson’s home is in this district. Tonko would probably be safe though in this Obama 58% district.

19: NYC Exurbs, most of Rockland, Dutchess, Orange county. Hayworth represents most of this area, even though her home is not in this district. She would probably run here rather than against Nita Lowey. Obama got 49 % here. Lean R due to Republican Incumbent.

18: All of Central and Northern Westchester, as well as the soundshore. The only part not includes are the southern cities of Yonkers, New Rochelle, Pelham and Mt. Vernon. Also goes over the Tappan-Zee Bridge to grab Nyack from Rockland County. Obama 60%. Safe D for Lowey.

17 (BLUE): Eliot Engel would probably run in this district. Contains Southern Westchester as well as  the Northern Bronx. Engel’s worry would be the primary here, as it is an 80 % Obama district. W 31 B 33 H 27 A 4.

16 (LIME): Serrano South Bronx district stays the same. Obama 95%. W 3 B 30 H 62 A 2.

15 (ORANGE): Rangels district moves a little further south in Manhattan, down to 90th St. Obama 92%. W 19 B 29 H 46.7

14 (PUKE): Takes in UES, UWS, Midtown, Greenwich Village area and some of Downtown. Obama 81 %. Maloney is safe here still.

9 (LIGHT BLUE): This district takes in some of Crowley’s former areas in the Bronx, as well as Flushing, Bayside, and part of Forest Hills NE of Queens Blvd.  Ackerman and Weiner would probably duke it out here, with Ackerman having repped most of this area but Weiner being more popular with the base. Weiner could also just retire and focus on his mayoral run. W 42 B 9 H 22 A 22 and Obama 68 %.

7 (SILVER): This district contains Astoria, Corona, Jackson Heights and Woodside. Has Crowley’s home and some of his area. Would probably face competition from Joel Peralta and maybe Mike Gianaris. Obama 78 % and W 27 B 8 H 41 A 20.

12 (LIGHT BLUE): Takes in some of Weiners old ground (Western Rockaway, SW Queens) and some of Velasquez’ area (Williamsburg, Brooklyn Heights etc). Obama 75 %, W 42 H 37 B 8 A 8. Not really sure who would win a primary here between Velasquez and Weiner, but this district may have more of Weiner’s district than the one based in Flushing.

11-10 (PINK AND GREEN), 6 (TURQUOISE): Towns and Yvette Clark’s (+Meeks) districts stay pretty much the same and above 50 % black. So they are good under the VRA.

8 (DARK BLUE): Takes in downtown Manhattan and Southern Brooklyn, taking in both Orthodox Jewish and Hispanic areas. Obama 65 % W 52 H 20 B 3 A 22. Nadler probably safe here, but could face a challenge from a more Brooklyn based primary challenger.

13 (SALMON): Takes in Staten Island as well as Coney Island, Sheepshead Bay and other heavily Russian areas in Brooklyn. Obama 49 %, probably a toss up between Grimm and McMahon in a likely 2012 rematch. A point more democratic than the current district.

4 (RED): McCarthy’s district takes in all the inner Nassau Suburbs and tiny piece of Queens. Obama 58 %.

3 (PURPLE): King loses his huge tendril into Suffolk, and therefore his district becomes much less Republican. The flip side of that is that Israel’s seat will be more Republican. Obama 51 %, LEAN R.

2 (GREEN): Israels district now solely in Suffolk county. Obama 53.5 %, as he has to take in some of King’s area’s from the South Shore. LEAN D

1 (BLUE): Bishop’s district stays the same. LEAN D. Obama 52%.

So what independent districting would do is give us one extra safe D seat in Syracuse, throw a Lean D race between Owens and Hanna, gives Scott Murphy a clear comeback shot, weakens Hinchey, King, Israel, and takes apart Gibson’s district and totally un-gerrymanders Queens.  

I basically tried to put together a NY standpat map, which could happen if Gov. Cuomo backs down from his threat to veto any gerrymandered map. The Senate Republicans passed a constitutional amendment for non-partisan redistricting, which would only take affect in 2022. I guess this could also be a judges map, if the judges just wanted to keep everything pretty much the same. I just tinkered with the edges in NYC, not wanted to run afoul of the VRA. The upstate areas I tried to clean up the map, save the Plattsburgh to Syracuse district for Bill Owens. The map takes apart NY-05 and NY-25.

Ok starting in Western NY:

27: Higgins get a compact district, solely in Buffalo. Safe as well, Obama won with 62%. (TEAL)

26: The special election winner for Chris Lee’s old district gets a Obama 46% district. It eats up the Slaughter earmuffs and Chautauqua County. (SLATE)

5: Slaughter gets a compact district in her home Monroe County (I just called this NY-05 because Gary Ackerman’s district evaporated). This is an Obama 58 % district. (YELLOW)

25: Tom Reed’s district takes a chunk of Richard Hanna’s blue-color district, as that compacts towards Hanna’s home in the Utica area. Gets some of the area’s around Ithaca. Obama 47.5%. (RED)

23: Richard Hanna’s district is now cleaner and more centered around Utica. It picks up some area from Bill Owens’ district and Gibson’s. Obama 49%. (INDIGO)

21: Paul Tonko picks up a Greene county from Gibson in what is now an Obama 57% district. (DARK BROWN)

This is NY-23, which now runs from Owens’ home in Plattsburgh to Syracuse. He is probably safe with an Obama 58% district. He may be vulnerable to a primary challenge however from a Syracuse based politician. Gibson gets a few of the counties up north here.

22: Hinchey picks up all of Delaware county.  He keeps the tendril to Ithaca and picks up a little area in Orange county. Obama 58% (LIGHT BROWN)

20: The southern half of Gibson’s district doesn’t change much. It stays swingy, Obama won it with 52.5 %. (PINK)

19: Hayworth district picks up part of Nita Lowey’s district that had been in Rockland county, the area north of New City. Obama 51% (GREEN)

18: Nita Lowey gets a solely Westchester based seat. She loses her areas in Rockland to Engel and Hayworth and picks up New Rochelle, Mount Vernon and parts of Yonkers from Engel. Still safe, Obama 64% (YELLOW)

17: Engel picks up New City from Lowey, as well as some areas strongly Democratic from Joe Crowley in the Bronx. This becomes a Rockland/Bronx/Yonkers district. Obama 72% (BLUE)

7: Crowley’s district loses some Hispanic areas of the Bronx, but retains the more White, eastern area of it. He gets parts of Flushing, Great Neck and Elmhurst as well. While this is a minority-majority district, Crowley holds immense power as head of the Queens Democratic Party, so he would probably be safe from a primary. Obama 71 %, W 33 B 9 H 33 A 21 (SILVER)

16: Jose Serrano’s district grabs a few precincts to its east. Stays mostly same though. Obama 88 %, 62% Hispanic.  (GREEN)

15: Charlie Rangel’s district stays pretty much the same, just picks up a few blocks on the UES and UWS. Obama won 92 % here. B 30 H 47, so this may be won by Senator Espillat whenever Rangel leaves. (ORANGE)

14: Maloney picks up little more area in Queens, but other than that, no major changes. Obama 78%. (OLIVE)

9: Anthony Weiner’s district pulls out of Brooklyn for the most part. I had to give him a little chunk to the West of Marine Park, but other than that this is a Queens district (Weiner lives in Forest Hills). He picks up a big chunk of Ackermans old district in the Flushing area and Corona. Obama 64%, W 47 H 25 A 18 (LIGHT BLUE)

6: Meeks district picks up a little bit of the area from Ackerman. They are mostly white voters, and my map couldnt keep him above 50 % black voters for this VRA district. I’m sure its possible though, but its just darn hard. 88 % Obama, 49.9 % Black. (TEAL)

10: Towns’ district gives some Hispanic areas to Velasquez in the North, and picks up some White areas from Weiner’s old Brooklyn area near Marine Park. Obama 86% B 56 H 15 (LIGHT RED)

11: Yvette Clark picks up a little bit of Weiner’s district as she moves slightly south. 88 % Obama, 55 % Black.

12: Velasquez expands a little bit in the Williamsburg area. This inches slightly closer to a majority hispanic district. Obama 56 %, W 24 B 10 H 48 A 15. (LIGHT BLUE)

8: Nadler’s district stays the same, snaking from Manhattan to Boro Park, but he adds all of Coney Island as well from Weiner. Obama 72 % (DARK BLUE)

13: Michael Grimm picks up a few more Brooklyn Precincts from Weiner. Obama 49 % (SALMON)

This is where Ackerman gets taken out.

4: McCarthy takes a tiny piece of Queens, as well as the Southern half of Ackerman’s Nassau portion. Obama 58 % (DARK RED)

3: Peter King picks up Port Washington and Great Neck and keeps his weird tendril to grab Republican voters in Suffolk. Obama 48.5% (PURPLE)

2-1: Steve Israel’s district goes a little farther into Nassau county (GREEN: Obama 56 %) as Bishop (BLUE: Obama 52 %) grabs a little more Suffolk County territory to make up for population loss.

All in all, most of the republicans that won in 2010 stay within a point or two of where they were before. Hanna gets safer, Higgins becomes safe, Slaughter loses a few points of PVI but gets to be in her home base of Rochester. The map gets a lot cleaner upstate, few counties are split. All the congressmen in this map would be okay with very few new constituents, and the Dems would not be giving safe seats to all the republicans that just own their seats.