Month: November 2006

Am I the only one still at the dance?

With every town except Waterford reporting, Courtney is up by 239.  Most of Waterford’s elected officials are Republican (http://www.waterford…).  Therfore, we should expect Simmons to pick up some seats.  This is the same district that Gejdenson won by 4 votes (21 after the recount) in 1994.

We may be watching this one for a while.

-Dan

4:56PM: CNN is finally calling PA-08 for Pat Murphy.
3:36PM: CNN has called MT-Sen for Jon Tester!  I hope they have a great party in Big Sky Country tonight, because Jon Tester is truly one of finest new members of Congress this year.  Montana should be proud.
4:20AM: That’s it, I’m going to bed.  With 95% of the precincts reporting, incumbent Democrat Jim Marshall is leading by a sliver in GA-12–700 votes.  That’s pretty hairy, but hopefully he’ll pull through and ensure that 2006 was a bloodless year for House Democrats.  With 100% precincts reporting, it looks like Pat Murphy (D) has edged Mike Fitzpatrick by 1500 votes in PA-08, but CNN hasn’t called the race yet.  In less good news, it looks like Lois Murphy came just short yet again in PA-06, losing to Gerlach by a 3000 vote margin with 100% of precincts reporting (sadly, I expected this to happen)–but CNN hasn’t made a call here yet, either.  CT-02 is definitely headed for recount territory: Democrat Joe Courtney has a 220 vote lead with 97% of precincts reporting.  With 25% in, Burner (D) is behind Reichert by 4 in WA-08.  I have a strong suspicion that it’ll end up around that mark, too.  And with 99% in, Patricia Madrid (D) is 320 votes behind Heather Wilson in NM-01.  It’s hard to believe that we pulled off upsets like KS-02, PA-04, CA-11, and KY-03 and came just short in NM-01.  We’ll see what happens by morning–this is definitely heading for a recount here, as well.  I’m also a little disturbed to see the Montana Senate race coming down to a 1% margin for Tester with 84% in, but I’m told that a recount in Yellowstone county is stalling the tally.  According to McJoan on DailyKos, Tester was leading Yellowstone by around 1200 votes before its totals were pulled so the recount could commence.  So that explains it a bit.

But in any event–hey!  Democrats took back the House of Representatives, and depending on the outcome of MT-Sen, the Senate is poised to flip, too.  (I’m counting VA-Sen as a win, dammit!)  Give yourselves a nice pat on the back.  Just look at how much bluer this map is.  Feels good to see, doesn’t it?

Oh yeah–and this picture of Paul Hodes throwing it down in his victory celebration from NH Union Leader is one of my favorite images of the night:

4:07AM: Put Jerry McNerney and CA-11 on the big board!  Nicely done, team McNerney!
3:41AM: Jerry McNerney (D) has a 6-point lead over Richard Pombo (R) in CA-11 with 79% of precincts reporting.  McNerney hasn’t trailed all night, and I’m expecting him to still lead when this closes.  Woohoo!
2:12AM: Great news–CNN has called MO-Sen for Claire McCaskill!
2:10AM: Aw yeah!  CNN has just called IA-02 for the Democrats!  What a stunner.
1:47AM: Still with 99% of precincts reporting, Loebsack (D) has increased his margin over Leach (R) by 600 to 6000.  It hasn’t been called in Loebsack’s favor yet, but I’m feeling confidant that we can tag IA-02 on the big board soon.
1:39AM: No surprises here–Ed Perlmutter (D) has snatched up CO-07 from the Republicans.
1:35AM: Color TX-22 blue.
1:20AM: In IA-02, Dave Loebsack (D) is edging Jim Leach (R) by 600 votes, with 99% of precincts reporting.  If Loebsack pulls this off, this is second only to Carol Shea-Porter’s stunning upset in NH-01.
1:06AM: Another netroots victory–MN-01 has flipped to Democrat Tim Walz.
12:58AM: With 23% of precincts reporting, Grant (D) is edging Sali by 45-43.
12:43AM: Add NY-19 to the tally!  Wow!
12:36AM: Add WI-08 to the big board!
12:31AM: With 13% of precincts reporting, Larry Grant (D) is edging Bill Sali by a 46-33 margin!  Whoa!  Big time 3rd party vote in ID-01 by disgruntled conservatives.
12:25AM: Here’s something surprising: of all 3 Nebraska House races, the least touted one, NE-02 is the closest right now.  With 30% of precincts reporting, Jim Esch (D) is only down by a 49-51 margin against entrenched incumbent Lee Terry (R).  Go figure.
12:20AM: Wow.  I figured that FL-13 slipped through our fingers a few hours ago, but Jennings is only 400 votes behind.  It’s unclear (to me) how many ballots are left to be counted.  Nevermind.  This one’s been called for the Republicans.
12:15AM: With 97% reporting, John Hall (D) is leading by 51-49.  Wow.
12:08AM: In MN-01, Tim Walz (D) is leading by 6 points with 60% of precincts reporting.

There are 18 counties that have not reported all their results:
Arlington
Charlottesville
Fairfax
Fairfax city
Glouchester
Harrisonberg
Isle of Wight
Loudon
Martinsville
Newport News
Norfolk
Northumberland
Petersburg
Prince Edward
Prince William
Richmond City
Virginia Beach
Waynesboro

Those counties have reported results from 50%-99% of precincts giving us a reasonable basis on which to project the final vote in each country.  Based on this and the currently reported vote, the final tally would be:
Webb: 1,168,889
Allen: 1,154,361
Webb wins by 14,528 votes

Source: CNN county-by-county vote totals

12:01AM: IA-01 was just snapped up by Democrats.  Feel that blue wave.
11:56PM: Wow.  KS-02 just flipped to the Democrats.
11:51PM: Webb pulls ahead by 3,000 votes in VA-Sen! Looks like Dan called it right – so far.
11:47PM: Amazing.  In IA-02, Dave Loebsack (D) is 4 points ahead of Jim Leach (R) with 57% reporting.
11:32PM: The fun never ends: PA-04 and AZ-05 have flipped Democratic.
11:25PM: Wow… we actually did it.  Democrats have recaptured the House of Representatvies.  More pick-ups are on the way.  Take a minute and savor it, folks.
11:10PM: Add ’em up on the big board: FL-22, NH-01 (I can’t believe it), NY-24, and IN-09.
11:01PM: More pickups! NC-11, FL-16, CT-05, PA-10, AZ-08 and NY-20!
10:58PM: Gary Trauner is up by 51-45 with 51% reporting in WY-AL.
10:46PM: Oh yeah, and Joe Sestak (D) in PA-07 has been called, too.  As an aside, this is a bizarre election.
10:36PM: Zack Space (D) won in OH-18, and did what Francine Busby couldn’t do in June.  Atta boy!
10:24PM: I can’t believe it, but with 81% of the vote, Carol Shea-Porter (D) is edging Jeb Bradley by 900 votes! 
10:19PM: Paul Hodes wins! He’s about to make a speech. WOW! AWESOME!  Put NH-02 on the big board!
10:15PM: Boyda (D) could really do this thing.  With 47% of precincts reporting, she’s up by 54-44 over Ryun.
10:05PM: With 27% reporting, Altmire (D) has 57 and Hart (R) has 43 in PA-04.  This would be a stunning upset.
9:48PM: Keep your eye on KS-02, where Nancy Boyda (D) is leading Rep. Jim Ryun (R) by a 54-44 margin with 23% reporting.
9:29PM: CNN calls IN-02 for Joe Donnelly.  Nice!
9:23PM: CNN calls Yarmuth!  Alright!  Put KY-03 up on the big board!
9:10PM: With 96% in, John Warmuth (D) is up by 51-48 and 6500 votes over Ann Northup in KY-03.
9:05PM: With 46% reporting, Carol Shea-Porter (D) and Rep. Jeb Bradley (R) are neck and neck at 50-50 each, with a 500 vote edge for Shea-Porter.  No one thought this would be a close race.  Holy smokes.
8:47PM: CNN is calling NJ-Sen for Menendez, but last I saw they had Kean leading. Weird. MA-Gov and OH-Gov also called for Dems.

8:32PM: With 88% in, Yarmuth is holding Northup at 50-49, with a 3000 vote lead.  Keep your fingers crossed.  As I recall, NRCC chair Tom Reynolds said that if Northup lost, he was expecting a very unpleasant night nationwide.
8:24PM: With 9% in, Hodes leads 61-38.
8:17PM: Nice!  Our first catch of the night: IN-08 has been called by the AP in favor of Brad Ellsworth (D) who holds a 62-38 lead with 34% of the vote in.
8:11PM: Keep your eye on IN-07.  Democratic incumbent Julia Carson is not performing well in the early returns: 48-52 in her Republican challenger’s favor with 15% reporting.
8:04PM: With 81% of precincts reporting, Yarmuth (D) is edging Northup by a 50-49 margin and just over 3700 votes.
8:02PM: With 24% of precincts reporting, Webb (D) is edging Allen (R) by 50-49 in the VA-Sen race.
7:57PM: With 16% of precincts reporting, Tom Hayhurst (D) is trailing Rep. Mike Souder (R) by 48-52.  This is a district that delievered somewhere in the ballpark of 68% of its vote to Bush in 2004.
7:54PM: With 9% of precincts reporting, Mike Weaver (D) is edging Rep. Ron Lewis (R) by 51-49 and 500 votes in KY-02.
7:44PM: With 74% of precincts reporting, Yarmuth is up by 51-48 and 3500 votes over Northup.  Wow.  Keeping my fingers crossed here, because a win here would be a great sign of things to come.
7:42PM: With 16% of precincts reporting, the race in IN-09 is tight as ever: 48%-48% between Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) and Baron Hill (D), with Sodrel up by 7 votes.
7:23PM: With 64% of precincts reporting, CNN has Yarmuth back ahead of Northup by a slim 50-49 margin (just over 2500 votes).  An absolute nailbiter.
7:16PM: The AP has called it for Peter Welch (D) in VT-AL.  That was fast.  The GOP had hoped that they could pick one off here.  Tough breaks for them.
7:09PM: With 53% of precincts reporting, Northup is in the lead in KY-03 by a slim margin: 49.6% to 49.%
7:02PM: With 12% of precincts reporting, Brad Ellsworth (D) is edging Rep. John Hostettler (R) by a 70-30 margin in IN-08.  Obviously we’re seeing some heavily Democratic precincts reporting here.
6:58PM: With 37% of precincts reporting, Yarmuth is edging Northup by 51-48.  This would be a major, major upset for Democrats.
6:52PM: In addition to CNN.com (obviously), you can get results for KY-04 here and KY-02 results here.
6:49PM EST: KY-03 results available here.  With 14.9% of precincts reporting, Yarmuth has a 51.1%-47.7% lead over Northup!

---

Polls have closed in Kentucky and some parts of Indiana, so we should be seeing some results begin to trickle in shortly.  Key races to watch in Kentucky: KY-02 and KY-03.  If John Yarmuth (D) can knock off Republican incumbent Ann Northup, and if State Rep. Mike Weaver (D) can come close to knocking off Rep. Ron Lewis (R), expect a big night.  If Weaver comes out on top, all bets are off.  The other big race in Kentucky is KY-04, where former Rep. Ken Lucas (D) is taking on Rep. Geoff Davis (R) in what is expected to be a close contest in a tight district.  I’m putting more emphasis on KY-03 and John Yarmuth’s performance as a bellwether race, though.

This post will be updated as events unfold.

Have an update about state or local turnout?  Post it here.  Let’s get a sense of how many voters are turning out in key states.

• Connecticut: According to the New Times in Danbury, Connecticut’s Secretary of State is claiming that 70% of eligible voters will turn out this year, topping 2004’s Presidential-level turnout of 56%.  Wowza.  Is this the strength of Ned Lamont’s ground game at work and his outsider appeal energizing disinterested voters?  Or will Lieberman be able to make up the difference by his strength in traditional voting blocs?  We’ll see, but I suspect this one will be tighter than many of the polls have assumed.

• Virginia: Turnout may reach historic levels for a midterm election, perhaps with a turnout as high as 65%–which would be a figure double the size of 2002’s turnout.  Turnout looks high in both Fairfax county in Northern Virginia and in Southwestern Virigina, according to CNN.  On balance, I would say that this favors Webb, but it definitely still looks like a nailbiter at this point.

More updates as they come.

Well here we go.  It’s been two long years of waiting, but the day of reckoning is finally here.  Will the reportedly high turnout in places like Connecticut and the supposedly strong Democratic turnout in districts like WA-05 and VA-10 carry the day?  I’m not making any predictions; what would be the point of that when the first polls are closing in just a couple of hours?  But I’ll be here all night to watch the big show go down with you.  We’ll be throwing up open threads and updates on keey happenings all night. 

I hope you’ve voted, I hope your friends have voted, I hope your family has voted, I hope your mailman has voted, and I hope they all voted Democratic.  It wouldn’t hurt to double check with them right about now.

And here’s a neat feature that you can use tonight: CNN has set up a tracking tool that logs the results of up to 20 of your favorite races all night.  That will definitely come in handy!

Get to the polls, get out the vote, and hang on tight.  Let’s do this thing, people!

Oh yeah, and just in case you missed it, here is one of the more unfortunate photo shoots imaginable for Republican Rep. Charlie Bass (R-NH):

Was it good for you?  Was it bad for you?  Were there long lines?  Short lines?  Frozen machines?  Hapless poll clerks?  Not enough ballots?  Or was everything just fine?

Do tell.  If you do have problems at the polls, the DNC has set up a voter protection hotline at 1-888-DEMVOTE.  There are other hotlines at 1-866-OUR VOTE for questions on how to vote and to report problems (the National Campaign for Fair Elections), as well as one set up exclusively for voting machine problems: 1-888-SAV-VOTE.  Don’t let anyone silence your voice today.

Oh, and if Jean Schmidt survives today, I hope she learns a lesson from this incident and becomes a champion of ballot integrity and secure elections.  Sadly, I’m not getting my hopes up:

I’m predicting a 5-6 seat Dem pick-up in the Senate with the Rhode Island seat being the Toss-up. I just have this nagging feeling that Chaffee will pull this out (although I hope not). I’ve included % guesses here for the Senate races, bypassed that for the Gubenatorial & California races. I’ve always relied on the Field Poll for California races but they’ve not issued anything new for the “down-the-ticket races so I’ll just go with a plain selection. Though I do not believe Arnie will win by double digits. The closet Statewide races should be Lt. Governor & Secty of State.

Competitive Senate Races

First Wave (+5 gain):
Pennsylvania – Casey 55- 45%
Ohio – Brown 54 – 46%
Virginia – Webb 52 – 48%
New Jersey – Menendez 53 –47%
Missouri – McCaskill 50.5 – 49.5%
Minnesota – Klobuchar 55% – 45%

Montana – Tester 52 – 48%
Maryland – Cardin 51.5 – 48.5%

Second Wave – 33% chance (4) (+1 gain*)

Arizona – Kyl-R 51.5- 48.5%
Connecticut – Lieberman-CFL 44.5 – 44 – 11.5%
Rhode Island – Chaffee-R 50.1 – 49.9% (*too close to call)
Tennessee – Corker-R 52.5 – 47.5%

Senate Gain = 5-6 seats.

Governor Races:

Maine – Baldacci-D
Alabama – Riley-R
Illinois – Blagojevich

Pennsylvania – Rendell-D
Connecticut – Rell
Alaska – Knowles-D
Hawaii – Lingle-R
Maryland – O’Malley-D
New York – Spitzer-D
NY AG – Cuomo – D
New Hampshire – Lynch-D
Iowa – Culver-D
Michigan – Granholm-D
Florida – Davis -D
Kansas – Sebelius-D
Massachusettes – Patrick-D
New Mexico – Richardson-D
Ohio – Strickland-D
Rhode Island – Carcieri-R
Arizona – Napolitano-D
Arkansas – Bebe-D
Georgia – Perdue-R
Colorado – Ritter-D
Minnesota – Hatch-D
Nebraska – Heineman-R
South Dakota – Rounds-R
Oklahoma – Henry-D
Oregon – Kulongski-D
South Carolina – Sanford-R
Tennessee – Bredensen-D
Texas – Perry-R
Vermont – Douglas-R
Wisconsin – Doyle-D
Wyoming – Fuedenthal-D
NY Senate switches to D
Kansas AG – Morrison-D
Ohio Statewide Offices – D Sweep
Governor Gain = 8-9

California State Races:
Dianne Feinstein – D (Chretien-G gets 10%)
Governor – Shwarzenegger-R
Lt. Governor – Garamendi-D
Secty of State – Bowen – D
Atty General – Brown – D
Treasurer – Lockyer-D
Controller – Chiang-D
Insurance Commish – Poizner-R
BOE #1 – Yee-D
St.Sen #8 – Yee-D
State Sen #10 – Corbett-D
Assembly #11 – DeSaulnier-D
Assembly #12 – Ma-D
Assembly #13 – Leno-D
SF prop.”J « Impeach Bush/Cheney – Yes 74.5%
SF Board Dist 4 – Chan-D
SF Board Dist 6 – Daly-D/G