Month: November 2006

We’re going to see a lot of discussion today about problems with voting machines, attempts at voter suppression and intimidation, poll worker confusion and mistakes, and so on.

Here at Common Cause, we’re getting these stories straight from the voters’ mouths.

That’s because we and a number of other organizations are running the 1-866-MYVOTE1 hotline again. We used this in the 2004 elections to show numerous problems with the presidential election that year: long lines, badly trained poll workers, malfunctioning equipment and uneven distribution of machines.

Voters can also call this number to find their polling place as well as to report election problems. Most of the calls we’ve received on this hotline have been for that purpose, although we’ve had significant numbers of calls from people reporting problems in voting.

We want to share these voter stories with all of you, so that you can get reports of problems almost literally as they happen. We’ll also keep you up-to-date on the steps being taken to correct these problems.

Throughout the day, I’ll be updating here with news on problems and the hot spots that are popping up around the country. Check back for the latest stories!

Here are two calls that we received from Wayne County, Michigan:

“Hi, Precinct 13 at Adler Elementary on Fillmore.  The machine that counts the ballots was not operating this morning just after opening.  I left at five minutes to eight; I was there at 7 am, and it was not counting the ballots, so we had to put it in and they assured us it would be hand-counted, but a lot of people were very upset.”

“Uh, the voting machines this morning won’t take the voting cards.  They keep saying error, and like seven or eight of us had to put our ballots to the side while they call in repairs or whatever.”

And we’re receiving reports that voters in Mercer County, PA, are being asked what party they’re affiliated with.  More on that as it comes in…

X-posted at dKos

The woods are lovely, dark and deep,
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep.

—Robert Frost “Stopping By Woods On A Snowy Evening”

The sun has set here and polls will open before she rises again. There’s a big, fat full(ish) moon high above the Hudson Valley this evening and I’m exhausted. I decided that I needed to just sit down and just be still for a few minutes. When I stepped back from the chaos and the nerves and the coffee for a precious minutes, I was overwhelmed by a profound sense of gratitude to all those countless folks who, much like you and much like millions of other folks across the country you and I will never meet, are fighting like hell to take their country back.

I salute you.

I salute all those out there who spent the past few weeks knocking their knuckles raw, those who put their patriotism where their shoe leather meets the streets. I salute all those fine folks who literally walk the walk, who spent their weekends meeting their neighbors and engaging them in the process all up close and personal. I salute those who have overcome their shyness or reticence to talk to strangers. I salute those who travelled to new neighborhoods to walk, new towns, upstate, downstate or a new state entirely.

I salute you.

I salute those who cold called strangers to take their country back. I salute those who badgered their friends to join them in cramped offices to spread the word over the phone. I salute the pajamahadeen who called strangers across the country for candidates in other states. I salute “free nights and weekends”! I salute all those lovely people who with no time to spare who still found the time to reach out personally to folks who were sometimes on the other side of the continent.

I salute you.

I salute all those weary eyed staffers and volunteers who have decided to put your money where your goddamn mouth is, who decided to go “all in”, who chose to make damn sure that when their children and grandchildren ask them years from now what they did back in ’06 to take their country back that they had one hell of a story to tell. I salute those who have spent the past few weeks and months existing on cold pizza and stale coffee, who have grabbed those precious 15 minute power naps in the corner with one eye on that district map taped to the wall.  I salute all those who won’t sleep tonight as they are tweaking the final stages of their 96 hour plan, as they sift the lists of “ones” and “twos” who most need to be contacted tomorrow.I salute those disheveled hordes who have literally spent the night at the district office, the HQ, the union hall.

I salute you.

I salute all those who have taken those bleary eyed volunteers from far away into their homes, who have given them a bed, a meal and a shower. I salute all those amazing folks who have dropped by their candidate’s office with a plate of cookies or a bag of fruit or a box of sandwiches. I salute those who have called the office just to ask “What do you need?  What can i do right now” or “Are you guys hungry?”

I salute you.

I salute those who have given all those $25 contributions to the campaigns, often to campaigns in other districts or other states. I salute those who gave and gave and gave again. I salute those who found this struggle so damned important that they decided to sacrifice a dinner out or new pair of shoes or whatever to send that money to some candidate next door or on the other coast.

I salute you.

Finally, I want to salute all those who were told by the “wise” men/women that your desire to run was “doomed”, that dems can’t win here, that this district, this county, this state will never elect you. I salute all those who were told that they’d never be able to raise enough money or get enough support to be a “serious” contender, that they’d be a “vanity” candidate. I salute all those who listened politely as the Powers That Be told them that they’d be tilting at windmills and then decided, against all that “wise” counsel, to roll those sleeves up and throw all caution to the wind and, well,  run anyway, whether it was a run for the US Senate or for their local school board. I salute all those who listened to all the naysayers and found the situation in our nation to be too dire to sit this one out, who threw all caution to the wind and decided to brave the inevitable assault of the slime machine. I salute those who couldn’t stomach being a spectator to the continued violence wrought on our Constitution, the perpetuation of this continuing clusterfuck in Iraq, the shoveling of more and more to the few while asking more and more of the many, the looting of the Treasury from war profiteers and the cronies an determined that someone had to do something. I salute those who chose to take it upon themselves and against all the “friendly advice” offered by the knowitalls to put it all on the line and challenge that GOoPer incumbent on the town council, or Mr. Good-Hair-Been-There-Forever CongressCritter. I salute your courage and your patriotism and your sense duty.

My hat is off to everyone, top to bottom, who is engaged in this fight to reclaim for the American people what is rightly theirs, namely their own government.

I want to second what Al Rodgers said yesterday:

It’s a privilege to serve with all of you.

Hear hear.

I salute each and every last one of ya.

Now, let’s go out there and seal the freakin’ deal, kids. It’s time to take the country back.

You in?

Scott Lemieux of Tapped had the best Senate predictions of anyone today.

http://robwire.com/?…

  * Confident about Democratic chances: MD, NJ, RI
  * Tentatively think Dems will win: MO, MT
  * Tentatively think Dems will lose: VA
  * Dems Deader than The Santa Clause 3’s Oscar chances: TN

I just got word from the Lamont campaign that they are in need of help tomorrow in the 4th CD. That’s the part of Connecticut that’s closest to NYC and its suburbs – in fact, much of the district really is a suburb of New York itself. It’s very easy to reach by MetroNorth. So if you don’t already have election day plans – or you had a moment of inspiration and decided you’re gonna call in sick tomorrow – get in touch with the Lamont campaign here:

gmunger@gmail.com

-or-

(203) 854-5219

They’ll be answering the phones/checking e-mail all night.

Well, here goes. My method is going to be different than usual, instead of specific % predictions on every given race my method for both the House Predictions has a two tier (wave) system. First Wave races have a 75% chance of winning, Second Wave races have a 25% chance of winning. I have 37 First Wave races times 75% for a gain of 29 seats. Second Wave House 39 seats times 25% for a 9 seat gain, totalling a pick-up of 29-38 seats (incl VT-AL).  There’s more:

The listings are in descending order, those towards the top of the waves are most likely to win:

,

Competitive Congressional District Races ( in2 Waves)

First Wave-75% chance of winning (39) = +29 gain

Vermont – AL – Welch
Texas-22 – Lampson
Florida -16 – Mahoney
Ohio-18 Space
Iowa –01 – Braley
North Carolina – 11 – Shuler
Pennsylvania –10 – Carney
Pennsylvania – 07 – Sestak
Colorado – 07 – Perlmutter

New Mexico – 01 – Madrid
Arizona – 08 – Giffords
Wisconsin – 08 – Kagen
Indiana –02 – Donnelley
Indiana –08 –  Ellsworth
Florida – 22 – Klien
New Hampshire – 02 – Hodes
New York 24 – Arcuri
Kentucky –04 – Lucas
New York – 25 – Maffei
New York – 29 – Massa
Connecticut –04 – Farrell
New York – 20 – Gillibrand
Indiana – 09 – Hill
New York – 19 – Hall
Nebraska – 03 – Kleeb
Pennsylvania – 06 – Murphy

Pennsylvania –08-Murphy
Connecticut – 02 – Courtney
Connecticut – 05 – Murphy

Kentucky – 03 – Yarmuth

Idaho – 01 – Grant
Illinois – 06 – Duckworth
California – 11 – McNerney
Ohio –15 – Kilroy
Colorado –04 – Paccione
Wyoming – AL – Trauner
Virginia – 02 – Kellam
Florida – 13 – Jennings
Arizona -05 – Mitchell
Kansas – 02 – Boyda

,

Second Wave- 25% chance of winning (37) = +9 gain

New York – 26 – Davis

Arizona –01 Simon
Colorado –05 – Fawcett
North Carolina –08 Kissel
New Jersey – 07 – Stender
Washington – 08 – Burner
Ohio – 02 – Wulsin

Minnesota – 06 – Wetterling
Nevada – 02 – Derby
Minnesota – 01 – Walz
Pennsylvania – 08 – Murphy
Ohio – 01 – Cranley
Illinois – 10 – Seals
Virginia – 11 – Hurst
Nebraska –01 – Moul
Virginia – 10 – Feder
Kentucky – 02 – Weaver
New York –03 – Meijas
New York – 13 – Harrison
Florida – 08 – Stuart

California  – 04 – Brown
California – 50 – Busby
Washington – 05 – Goldmark
Kansas –04 – McGinn
Pennsylvania – 04 – Altmire
Ohio – 12 – Shamansky
West Virginia –02 Callaghan
Iowa – 02 Loebsack
New Hampshire – 01 – Shea-Porter
Virginia – 05 – Weed
Ilinois – 19 – Stover
New Jersey – 05 – Aronsohn
New Jersey –02 – Hughes
New Jersey –03 – Sexton
New Jersey –04 – Gay

From an Omaha World-Herald article on Bush’s ass-saving intervention on behalf of the troubled candidacies of Adrian Smith (R-Club For Growth) and Pete Ricketts (R-Hell), Bush gives his recommendation to voters from Nebraska’s deeply Republican 3rd Congressional District:

“Now, it seems to me if you’re sending someone from this country to Washington, you better have someone who understands what it means to be a farmer and rancher.”

Sound advice for a district as rural and agriculture-based as Nebraska’s 3rd.  Um, one slight problem, though, Mr. President:

Sounds like someone should have done a little better job of briefing President Bush on the candidates in Nebraska’s Third District Congressional race. It’s quite simple:

Scott Kleeb (D) = Fourth generation Nebraskan; Rancher with a PhD who wrote his doctoral dissertation on the history of cattle ranching

Adrian Smith (R) = Real estate agent and failed politician who is “not known as a skilled lawmaker” and “not known as a leader”

Well, kudos to the President for his candor, I guess.  And good work by the Kleeb campaign to spin the Bush visit into a plus for their side.

While Nebraska’s 3rd district is deeply Republican, in two of the last three times that it has been an open seat, the Democratic candidate barely lost (by 737 votes in 1974 and just over 4300 votes in 1990).  Scott Kleeb has worked this district hard, and it’d be pretty hard to think of a more perfect fit for this district than him.  While I’m not expecting an upset tomorrow, I am, however, anticipating this race to be fairly close tomorrow night–certainly closer than retiring Rep. Tom Osborne’s 87-11 blowout in 2004, in any case…

Let’s not misunderestimate the problem here. GET OUT THE VOTE. Friends and family, acquaintances and strangers. Put Bush 2.0 back in the box and secure the American system, we have an important document to save from corruption. Awkward computer metaphor, but what the hell, it’s true. EVERYBODY VOTE.

  In case we’ve forgetten:
  I’ve heard the call. I believe God wants me
  to run for president.
  They want the federal government
  controlling Social Security like it’s some
  kind of federal program.
  Please don’t kill me! (in the voice of Karla
  Faye Tucker)
  I encourage employers to permit their
  workers time off during the lunch hour to
  attend the noontime services to pray for our
  land.
  We should fund the armies of compassion,
  we should not discriminate against faith-
  based programs.
  I believe God did create the world. And I
  think we’re finding out more and more and
  more as to how it actually happened.
  Like I said, the legislature’s job is to write
  the law, and it’s the executive branch’s job
  to interpret the law.
  This crusade, this war on terrorism is going
  to take a while.

Crossposted at Daily Kos

As you may know by now, the National Republican Campaign Committee is making a Hail Mary play by harrassing Democratic-leaning voters with automated calls structured with a misleading introduction that suggests that Democrats are responsible for the call.  The kicker is: if you hang up, the robocall firm then calls you back several more times with the same message, often at horrendous hours.  It’s classic slimeball Republican skullduggery: harrass the opposition’s voters to suppress the vote (or worse, flip it).  Unfortunately, the scheme has flown under the radar until the last few days (when Josh Marshall helped break the story), so it could be effective.  However, in many states, calls such as these are illegal, and DailyKos diarist G2geek has an excellent diary up on ways to fight back against the Republican Party.  New Hampshire’s Attorney General has already put a partial stop to the problem there.

The DCCC has a press release condemning the tactics here, including information on how the $600,000 worth of attack calls were allocated in the past week.

For some reason, when I say or type “dirty tricks”, I think of Gollum from Lord of the Rings saying, “tricksy little hobbits…”.  But anyway, I went to Talking Points Memo, and lo and behold, I see the first item is about New Mexico!

It linked to a TPM Muckraker story about the dirty tricks by the GOP.  The Associated Press reported on the story, and in the story, the GOP claimed it only happened once, to one voter.  But NM Democratic Party director Matt Farrauto says that’s just not true.

More on the dark side of the moon.

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP and as a diary at Daily Kos

“I am standing in front of four people who had it happen to them, and there’s a fifth woman who contacted me this morning,” Farrauto told me. The group was standing in the courthouse lobby, he said, waiting to meet with a judge who could order the GOP’s calls to stop.

The Albuquerque Journal mentions the controversy in their Monday-before-Election-Day article.  Again, there is the claim by the Republicans it only happened to one person.

But Marta Kramer, executive director of the state Republican Party, said the accusation was bogus. She said a volunteer on the Republican phone bank inadvertently called a Democrat who had the same name as two other Republicans.

Right.  Those other four or five people who have come forward and actually realized this is unethical and misleading information?  They don’t exist.  Not to mention we don’t know how many Democrats don’t realize the information is wrong.

Joe Monahan notes that Republicans are getting misleading mailers; I think we can assume these are being sent to everyone.

[B]log photog Mark Bralley, a Republican, said he received a mailer from his party directing him to the wrong polling location.

So there are misleading mailers along with those misleading phone calls floating about.

To see Gov. Bill Richardson and Sen. Jeff Bingaman’s responses, see my earlier post.