Month: November 2006

There have been a couple of general ballot polls out in the past couple of days (namely, Pew and ABC/Washington Post) purporting to show a sudden “surge” of Republican momentum in the last few days of the election.  Hotline editor Chuck Todd does the digging and comes up with the 1994 general ballot polls from around this time:

A trip through The Hotline archives for the weekend before the ’94 election shows the generic ballot as follows:

ABC: — 47-46 in favor of the Dems (a 6-point swing in the last week toward the Dems)
Gallup: — 51-44 for the GOP (a 4 point swing in the last week toward the Dems)
NBC: — 46-35 for the GOP (a 2 point swing in the two weeks toward the Dems)
Times Mirror: — 48-43 for the GOP (a 7 point swing in the last month toward the Dems)

I’m not suggesting that this election won’t be close, but I definitely am suggesting that this “natural tightening” in election eve polls is something to keep in mind before anyone potentially loses their head or chews off their fingernails.

Just to let you know, Swing State Project plans to be buzzing and fully operational on election night tomorrow.  I’m booking off the whole evening to follow the returns here with you, and as I’m in the fabulous Mountain Time zone, I’ll likely be up a bit later than some of the East Coast bloggers.  We’ll be throwing up open threads all night with key updates on the latest developments across the country.  User diaries will also be fully functional as usual, and I hope you will take advantage of them–but do so at a reasonable volume (I’ll let your own discretion judge that for now).

For poll closing times and key races for all 50 states, please consult DavidNYC’s diary here.  It’s going to be a long night tomorrow.  (And hopefully a fun one.)

50-49 Senate plus Liberman who then switches parties to make it 51-49 red.

House: 237-198.  I think we pick up (in order of the state-by-state series)

CO-4,7 (and CO-6 before CO-5)
IN-2,8,9,stay-up-late-and-have-some-popcorn-for-3

NV-mmmmaybe2
NC-8, 11 (Touchdown!)
IA-1, mmmmaybe2
NM-1
WV-I-got-a-good-feeling-about-2
KS-I-got-a-better-feeling-about-2
CT-2,4,5
IL-6,10

ID-1-yeeeeha
WY-AL-yip-yip-yip-yeeeeha!
WI-8,mmmmmaybe5
KY-3,4,rooting-fer-2
MN-1-sorry-on-6-sorrier-about-2
WA-5,8
VA-2,10
NE-3,and-I-wouldn’t-say-no-to-1
FL-13,16,22
VT-AL
NH-2
AL-in-my-dreams-1-and-3
AZ-1,5,8
OH-1,6,15,18 (I think Meanjean hangs on)
PA-4,6,7,10
Pickups I didn’t get to:
NY-3,26,29
NJ-7
TX-22,23
CA-4,11,50,52

Biggest fumbled opportunity- MI-8

This is where I get to be wrong. I have found six Democratic Candidates who are running good campaigns in the right environments who are currently not listed on any list of competitive races in the country by any professional prognosticators. . So here is where I go out on a limb.  All of these candidates will get 40%, most will get 45% and one will win.  This is not to rule out the possibility of other strange upsets.  But theses six campaigns have a real shot at riding a wave.

Michigan 9th
This is one of the serious under covered race in a district where it should be treated with greater respect.  This is a district that gave George Bush a whopping and impressive 51% of the vote in 2004.  While the Democrats didn’t get the most impressive nominee in Nancy Skinner, they did get a feisty one.  The finance report tells a good story. Incumbent Congressman Joe Knollenberg has spent more money, almost 2.5 million dollars, more then he has raised this cycle. He also faced a primary from a pro-choice Republican Women who got 30% against him. Now it is true that Michigan has open voting but this is still a sign.  Nancy Skinner is a progressive talk radio host, so she can deal with press. I also believe that in the end both Michigan Gov and Senate will break for us by about giving Nancy a chance at coattails, she has raised a respectable if not impressive 330,000 dollars.  Her website is  http://nancyskinner….
Check her out.

Minnesota 2nd
I just refuse to give up on Coleen Rowley. She was named Time Woman of the Year. Her campaign has been considered Lackluster, but Coleen has slowly clawed her way back into this race. We will benefit from a massive victory in the Senate Race and also hopefully the Governor’s race.  Her opponent Incumbent John Kline is also not loved.  He only ran slight ahead of The President in his district and only got 57% not terrible but also not wonderful. The only polling out is Survey USA that shows Coleen in striking distance 50-42. She has a real shot. Go Coleen.
On web http://www.coleenrow…

Ohio 3rd
  This is quite possibly the least covered house race that has any money be spent at all. Before I get to the specifics of the race let me be clear the key thing that this race has going for it is Ohio. The Republican in Ohio seem to be collapsing at an astonishing rate. This means that upsets just become more likely across the board. I point therefore to Ohio’s 3rd district. This is a surprise district because the Democratic Candidate was forced to drop in late August. What is surprising is that this caused the Democrats to have an improved candidate overall.  Dick Chema is such a candidate. He was a prosecutor before he decided to run for Congress and has put together both acceptable amounts of money and strong support from the politicians in the district. This district only gave George Bush 54%. It is clearly a long shot a Mike Turner has no real fireable except being a Republican, in Ohio that might just be enough.  It is clearly possible. On  the web
http://www.chemaforc…

Montana At Large
The Montana miracle  will be tested in this race. Jon Tester has run an awesome campaign and that will hopefully benefit Democratic Nominee Monica Lindeen. She has a run a good if under covered campaign. Remember that even while Schweitzer was winning by a relatively small amount we won almost all Statewide offices and the Legislature. I think it will be closer with a real chance Monica pulls it off. Again the incumbent Dennis Rehberg hasn’t  real made any fatal mistakes. The question is while tossing out Burns will they also toss Rehberg. There is reason for hope.
On Web http://www.lindeen.n…

NJ 5
If there is a greater example of Congressman who is just out step with the view of his constituents, it  is Scott Garrett. He was of the most Conservative Members in the House Voting against Katrina Aid and  Renewing the Voting  Rights act. The district did go 57% for George Bush but they just aren’t this Conservative. Paul Aronsohn  is a good candidate who has raised a decent amount of money with a decent bio and has been working hard.  He also has a lot of Clinton Alumni helping him. This one could be the biggest surprise if the district would just figure out how Conservative Garrett really is.
http://www.paularons…

IL 11
John Pavich was highly touted and then he went away, we will see if he comes back on election night.  It is only a 53%  Bush district and Illinios has trended very Democratic.  Pavich has also picked up a few newspapers and the Chicago Tribune stayed Neutral.  Incumbent Jerry Weller is likely to hold. But John Pavich has kept it close and I like it is an upset.
On Web http://www.pavichfor…

There you have it. Six races no one has on their list that just might flip. I stand by the prediction. Everyone gets 40 most get 45 and  one will win.  I am either a prophet or a moron we found out in about 40 hours.

While Bush may have come to Greeley, CO to try to save the seat of Marilyn Musgrave on Saturday, the candidates here in Colorado who can speak before a crowd without the need of a script rallied today, Sunday, in this battleground city of the 4th CD.

Senator Ken Salazar, Gubernatorial candidate Bill Ritter and Democratic congressional challenger Angie Paccione took the stage before about 500 enthusiatic citizens to explain why this is such an important election.  When Angie took the microphone to cheers of “Angie!  Angie!  Angie!”  She presented the simple, obvious reasons why the Democrats must take back Congress and why Musgrave must go.

More after the jump.

If you have ever seen Angie speak, you would know how she draws upon the energy of the crowd — and this crowd was electric.  Angie doesn’t need a script to explain why it is so important for the Democrats to be in the majority — to raise the minimum wage, to implement the recommendations of the 9/11 Commission, to vote to override Bush’s veto of stem-cell research, to get rid of the corrupt politicans who are doing the bidding of special interests.

But Angie was most eloquent when she reminded the audience of Eisenhower’s statement that “America is great because America is good” — telling the audience that when the Democrats return to the majority in Congress, they will “make America great again because they will make sure America is good again.”

After the event, some reporters gathered around Angie to ask her questions — about the last 2 days of campaigning and what she thought would happen.  Using the analogy from her basketball playing days, she said that the campaign was peaking at the right time as the polls showed the race now basically a toss-up.

When asked “What do you think of Bush and Cheney coming to this state to rally for the Republicans?”  Angie replied, “Well, their numbers are in the tank — and if the Republicans in this state want to attach themselves to them, then their numbers will be in the tank too.”

As she explained: “There has been a massive failure of leadership both in Congress and his Administration.  People are looking for change.  I say if you want to change the Congress, you have to change the people you send to Congress.  And that’s why I am asking voters tio send me — because I’ll be that change.”

Whatever happens on Tuesday, nobody can question that Angie is going into the election fighting for every vote.

Cross-posted from MN Campaign Report

We finally have poll results in CD5. SurveyUSA’s poll for KSTP is complete, and will be broadcast on tonight’s 10 PM news. The results, according to a solid source…

Keith Ellison (DFL): 49
Alan Fine (GOP): 25
Tammy Lee (IP): 22
Jay Pond (GP): 2

The fight in this race does indeed appear to be for second place. With the entire DFL GOTV operation pushing base votes across the district, Ellison should have no problem cleaning up and becoming the first Muslim Congressman in American history. A third-place finish for Fine, on the other hand, would present a significant problem for the CD5 Republican organization.

For SSP readers unfamiliar with the Minnesota scene, it’s worth noting that if elected, Keith Ellison will be the first Muslim Congressman in history.

(Bumped! Last chance to get your predictions in! – promoted by James L.)

I just created a predictions pool for us over at Predict06.com. Predict06 is a neat site which automates the process of predicting the outcome in sixty-two competitive House and Senate races. The pool feature allows a group (such as Swing State readers) to engage in a bit of friendly competition amongst itself.

So click here to join. All you need to do is create a user account (take five seconds) and you can start making predictions right away. There won’t be any prizes for this pool (unlike our home-grown contest), but you can earn bragging rights. And among the hardcore junkies who hang out here, that’s saying something!

UPDATE (James L.): Predict06 has expanded their playing field by 15 House seats.  Get on over there and update your predictions accordingly!  Also, I’m really pleased to see that 68 people have joined in on the Swing State Project pool so far.  We’ve already cracked the top five pools and are closing in fast on the DailyKos and RedState prediction pages.  It’s no secret that Swing State Project readers are some of the sexiest, savviest electoral thinkers on the internet, so let’s prove the CW right by calling these races correctly!  Get your predictions in today, because tonight will be the last night that Predict06 will accept your submissions.

If you can pick one race that’s generally not seen as likely to flip from the Republicans to the Democrats (or vice versa) that could shock the “experts” on Tuesday, which would it be and why?  Which race are you calling to be November 7’s “upset special”?

A while back, I might have said Gary Trauner’s campaign against unpopular Republican Rep. Barbara Cubin for Wyoming’s sole House seat, but in the wake of Cubin’s physical threats against her wheelchair-bound Libertarian opponent, Thomas Rankin (who suffers from multiple sclerosis), a win here by Trauner may still be an upset, but it certainly would no longer be a “shocker”.

Therefore, my pick of the cycle goes out to my boy Bob Shamansky, a 79 year-old former one term wonder Congressman who represented this district from 1980-82.  Ohio is clearly going to be a brutal state for Republicans this year, with a national trend magnified by the dismal unpopularity of outgoing Republican Gov. Bob Taft and the stuck-in-reverse campaign of Kenneth Blackwell to succeed him.  With Strickland and Brown at the top of the ballot, Ohio Democrats are well poised for a revival, and if you believe the latest Columbus Dispatch polls (and I’d understand if you didn’t, given their dismal failure predicting the Reform Ohio Now ballot propositions last year), it could be a clean Democratic sweep of all statewide offices up for grabs this year.

So, why Bob?  While his opponent, Pat Tiberi, breezed through 2004 with 62% of the vote, 2006 is shaping up to be a very, very different year.  For one thing, Tiberi isn’t facing some underfunded gadfly: Shamansky has brought big money to the table–$1.64 million dollars, most of which came from his own bank account.  By contrast, Ed Brown, Tiberi’s challenger in 2004, spent barely over $3,000 on his campaign.  Secondly, intensive Democratic voter registration efforts and changing demographics in Franklin Country turned this seat a lot less red in 2004–Bush won it by the slimmest of margins (51-49), providing a good springboard for an opportunistic House Democratic challenger to make a serious run at Tiberi.  Thirdly, Shamansky’s ads have been very good, alternately using well-executed humor and national heroes on his behalf.

Obviously, I’m banking a lot on my assumption (and hope) that Ohio voters are looking for change this year and are willing to vote for a 79 year-old man to express such desires, as well as my own blatant pro-Shamansky bias, but not a lot of prognosticators are seriously putting this one up on the big board of possible flips.  The result on November 7 could surprise them.

(From the diaries, in the spirit of equal time for oldtimers – promoted by James L.)

I have seen a lot of discussion comparing  this mid-term election to the 1994 mid-term election, however I feel there is a more applicable point of comparison from the past, the 1966 mid-term election.
Let me open this by giving some background. In 1966 I was a Republican – I didn’t switch to the Democratic Party until 1973. So for me the 1966 Republican Midterm rout where the GOP picked up a net gain of 47 House seats, 3 Senate seats, 8 Gubenatorial Seats, 156 State Senate seats and 401 Lower Chamber legislative seats.
This was a memorable experience in my capacity as Treasurer of both my Township and County Teenage Republicans. The Vietnam War had escalated into a complete mess and the Civil Rights movement had scored major success. Caveat: I was a Republican but I was of the Clifford Case/Jacob Javits variety. As a pack-rat over the last 4 decades I managed to accumulate and save a lot of books and publications. (Now… more below the fold.)

From the start of the 1966 campaign, the Democrats realized that they faced formidable odds if they hoped to maintain their overwhelming margins of control, in the Congress, state governorships and legislatures. Yet, at the end of 1965, it looked as if the Republicans would be held to minimal gains. The 89th Congress had passed laws with benefits for almost every segment of the population; President Johnson still enjoyed the wide “consensus” support he had enjoyed in 1964, from every group from organized labor to big business and the minorties; and the economy was booming on virtually every front.

By the start of the 1966 campaign, however,it was apparent that the odds had shifted significantly to the benefit of the Republicans. Behind the change was the escalation of the Viet Nam War, with its heavy toll in both American lives and dollars. The Republicans did not pretend to have an easy solution for the Viet Nam War; indeed most Republicans tended to support the Johnson Administration’s Viet Nam policies, and the Republicans were sharply critical of Democratic critics of the war for failing to give solid support to the American war effort. But, unlike the Korean War, the conflict in Viet Nam, because of its limited nature, increased frustrations across the country and began to undermine public support of the Administration in power.

The Republicans were able to argue with some effectiveness that the Johnson Administration should be cutting down, rather than increasing , national expenditures for a wide variety of Great Society programs.

President Johnson’s own popularity plummeted during the year; wide splits appeared in the Democratic party in many key states; at the very same time a number of attractive Republican party candidates appeared to lead the Gop in critical states—in sharp contrast to the unpopularity of Goldwater, the party’s 1964 standard bearer.

Early in 1965 the Democrats had launched an ambitious “Operation Support” from within the Democratic National Committee, designed to support the 71 freshman Democratic Representatives who came into office in the 1964 Democratic sweep – 38 of them from formerly Republican districts.

The Republican effort, on the other hand, was bolstered by a massive fundraising campaign that made it possible to funnel thousands of dollars into every doubtful Congressional district in the country.

Former Vice-President Richard Nixon, who campaigned tirelessly for Republican candidates throughout the land and took the role in the public Republican debate with the President in the closing days of the campaign.

Shades of California:

Gov. Nelson Rockefeller counted a sure loser in 1966, campaigned skillfully and benefited from deep splits within the Democratic party to win a third four year term.

The GOP picked up 52 House seats and lost five for a net gain of 47 seats. This was the year that saw Edward Brooke (R-MA) elected to the Senate as CQ put it the “first Negro of the century to win election to the U.S. Senate”, Spiro Agnew (R) as Governor of Maryland, Claude Kirk (R) as first Republican Governor in Florida, in 90 years. However, in my Congressional District, James J. Howard (D NJ-03), who was swept-in in the 1964 landslide in a Republican District by a 53% to 47%, managed to hold on by a razor-thin margin in ’66. Well, by 1973 when I joined the Democratic Party, I was happy this had occurred. I supported him in his many subsequent re-election bids.

All above quoted information is courtesy of CQ’s Background Politics In America 1945-1966, Politics and Issues of the Postwar Years – Second Edition Copyright 1967 by Congressional Quarterly,Inc.

In 1967 the price was $2.50.

I believe there are numerous differences between 1966 and 2006 including the fact that we are not coming off a landslide GOP 2004 election and the GOP’s heavy hand in redistricting over the last 6 years, but, the issues of the War in Iraq comparable to the Viet Nam war, unpopularity of GWB and Gay Rights/Civil Rights issues comparable to feelings about those Civil Rights issues in the 60’s were just too much to ignore. So, therefore I am confident we may well be positioned towards a landslide mid-term win.

Mason-Dixon and the Richmond Times-Dispatch have a new poll out today confirming Jim Webb’s recent surge of momentum in the past week, showing Webb up 46-45–the first time that Webb has edged Allen in any Mason-Dixon poll. Take a look at the trend (likely voters, MoE: ±4):

	Webb (D)	Allen (R)	Parker (I)	Unsure
11/1-3/06	46	45	2	7
10/17-19/06	43	47	2	8
9/5-7/06	42	46	N/A	12
7/25-27/06	32	48	N/A	20

Does this give you a little bit of déjà vu? Hmm, I wonder what Mason-Dixon’s numbers from last year’s gubernatorial race looked like (likely voters, MoE: ±4):

	Kaine (D)	Kilgore (R)	Potts (I)	Unsure
11/2-3/05	45	44	4	7
10/18-20/05	42	44	5	9
9/13-15/05	40	41	6	13
7/19-21/05	38	37	9	16

Hmm… a Republican campaign caught dealing with the backlash of scurrilous, ridiculous attacks on their opponent (that is, you know, when they’re not beating people up)? The Democrat receiving a groundswell of support from the grassroots all the way up to former Governors Mark Warner and Doug Wilder? The Democrat surging in the vote-rich “suburban crescent” of Northern Viriginia?

It’s beginning to feel a bit like November 2005 to me. I am feeling it, yes indeed. And now for the requisite caution: but, like David says, nothing should be considered a lock at this point. Let’s out-hussle the Republicans everywhere and seal the deal. Bring it all home to me, people.