Month: November 2006

Six years ago I was a Democratic GOTV volunteer for the Gore/Lieberman campaign (six long years ago) who did not have an internet connection at home in my studio apartment.

I would go the Claremont Branch of the Berkeley Public library every other night and use their computers to print out whatever polling I could find from races around the country.  There was this guy, Zogby, who was consistently predicting a tighter finish to the Presidential race than what other polls had indicated.  (Everybody was saying Bush was going to win handily.)

When it came to getting information about elections online, I was hooked. In fact, given the strength of the Nader campaign, I was concerned that Gore might win an electoral college victory but lose the popular vote. It spurred me into further action: I called my college friends on the telephone.

We’ve come a long way, baby…

I’m sitting here in a comfortable chair typing this on a Mac laptop with Airport Wifi after a hard day’s GOTV in Tracy California with folks I met online through the blog Dailykos.com.  Two of the folks who joined me today had never been out canvassing before. The internet and a diary on dkos brought them to the party.

Now, I’m entering a diary on a website, Swing State Project, that made its name providing the kind of information in 2004 that I so hungrily ate up in 2000. Going forward, Swing State project will feature user-generated diaries and content, just like Dailykos.com.

This IS a new era.

I have no idea whether we will take the House or the Senate on Tuesday. I’m hopeful, but I know that none of us really knows.

But there is something I DO know already, and that is that we’ve passed through a portal and we aren’t turning back.

Blogging and doing politics on the internet have revolutionized political participation in this country.

Just like diaries on SSP, the internet has innovated how we participate. We are interactive. We do politics in an interaction-rich environment.

So, yes, today, in conversation with a Swing voter in Tracy California who was intending to vote for Richard Pombo…a fellow canvasser and I handed a flyer with the URL to Jerry McNerney’s website…a website designed by another colleague from dailykos (Malacandra)…and paid for in part with funds raised by soliciting netroots donations from all over the country, including this website.

The tag line for that online campaign?  “We all Live in Richard Pombo’s District”  A phrase I coined on my blog k/o one year ago.

Now perhaps we netroots canvassers swung that Tracy swing voter to our side.  Perhaps not.

But that is nowhere near where we were, or I was personally, just six short years ago in 2000. Nowhere close.

And we all know it.

Win or lose.  We’ve already won so much.  We’ve crossed a threshhold and we aren’t turning back.

Congratulations on innovating participation by featuring diaries on SSP! It means a great deal to be one of the early diaries here.

We’ve only just begun.

peace

k/o

“Bass has been the epitome of a congressman who represents his district, more than any other congressman in the history of New Hampshire. It’s not right that the wave of unhappiness with President Bush is affecting him.”

– GOP strategist & McCain advisor Mike Dennehy, Concord Monitor (11/4/2006)

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“No matter what Swett does, he can’t hide from his record and and his votes; Dick Swett has voted with Bill Clinton and the liberal Democrats over 90 percent of the time.”

– Gov. Steve Merrill (R-NH), Union Leader (11/4/1994)

Gregg said that liberal Democrats have controlled Congress for about 42 years and voters have a chance to end this rule. Gregg described Swett as a “classic liberal Democrat” who votes with Bill Clinton 90 percent of the time.

– Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH), Union Leader (11/4/1994)

“[This election] is a referendum on Dick Swett’s record, which is a record of inconsistency, flip-flops and allegiance to President Clinton, the liberal leadership of the House and outside special interests.”

– Charlie Bass spokesman Lisa Stocklan, Union Leader (11/3/1994)

“This is a bellwether race, and your opponent is saying the same thing 256 other Democrats are saying. You know, they hardly know Clinton – even though Dick Swett has voted with the President 90 percent of the time.”

– Sen. Bob Dole (R-KS), Union Leader (11/1/1994)

In the Concord news conference Bass displayed a marionette with attached strings labled “AFL-CIO” “Bill Clinton” and “PACs,” and accused Swett of being the puppet of special interests.

– Union Leader (10/12/1994)

“Dick Swett cares about Bill Clinton and the liberal Democratic leadership of the House of Representatives more than he cares about the taxpayers of New Hampshire.”

– Rep. Charlie Bass (R-NH), Union Leader (10/7/1994)

Also attacking [Rep. Dick] Swett is ex-state Sen. Charles Bass (R), whose TV ads show Swett standing behind Dem gov. candidate Wayne King (“Mr. Property Tax”) and “hugging Bill Clinton.”

– Nashua Telegraph (10/6/1994)

“He calls himself independent. But we in New Hamphsire know Dick Swett is really a rubber stamp for (House Speaker) Tom Foley, for Bill Clinton and for the rest of the Democrats.”

– Rep. Charlie Bass (R-NH), Union Leader (10/4/1994)

“I don’t believe the people of the 2d District of New Hampshire believe that Bill Clinton is right 90 percent of the time.”

– Rep. Charlie Bass (R-NH), Boston Globe (9/15/1994)

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Charles F. Bass, a former State Senator, defeated the Democratic incumbent, Representative Dick Swett, by a small margin, making much of his golden pedigree as the grandson of a former Governor and the son of a former Congressman from the state. Despite being outspent by his opponent, Mr. Bass ran a strong campaign, criticizing his opponent’s ties to President Clinton. (One advertisement showed Mr. Swett and the President embracing.)

– New York Times (11/10/1994)

(Hat-tip to Billmon.)

I left Washington, DC Friday and flew to Colorado to help out on the Angie Paccione congressional campaign, arriving at campaign HQ in Fort Collins around 9PM. The staff here is psyched and energetic and the field operation has gone full throttle with several hundred volunteers this weekend knocking on doors of both Democrats and Independents making sure that they get to the polls. Just today, Saturday, about 30,000 doors were knocked on by canvassers, with many people telling us they had already voted for Angie through absentee or early voting — they have a very good early voting system in Colorado. What is great about being in the field is that you can really get a feel for the energy and momentum of a campaign — and Angie’s team has it.

Three members of Congress were here to help rev up the troops — Diana DeGette (CO), Diane Watson (CA), and Barbara Lee (CA). At the meeting point for canvassers in Longmont, Diane Watson gave a stirring talk about why this election was so critically important just before everyone went to walk their assigned precincts.

A few points I’ve learned after the jump.

— Bush came to Greeley to rally the “faithful” for Rep. Marilyn Musgrave and Gubernatorial candidate Rep. Bob Beauprez.  The feeling in the Paccione Campaign is that the Bush appearance will do as much to rally Dems in the district as it would GOPers.

— Greeley is a battleground for both campaigns.  Stan Matsunaka, who ran as the Dem candidate last time, lost Greeley by 10,000 votes.  We expect to lose Greeley, but if we can cut the Greeley margin significantly, Angie should be fine.

— To counter the Bush rally in Greeley, the Democrats will have a counter-rally Sunday with Senator Ken Salazar, Dem Gubernatorial candidate Bill Ritter, and Angie — followed by a major door-to-door canvassing event.  Ritter will win election easily, Ken Salazar is very popular, so this should be a great antidote to the Bush rally.

— Eric Eidsness, the Reform Party candidate, will have a major impact on the results.  Almost all of his votes are coming from GOPers, and we have seen polls that give him anywhere from 6% to 11%.  The more he gets, the better it is for Angie.  He is a former Republican and did a very good job in the one debate, focusing most of his criticism at Musgrave.

— The ads on TV are non-stop as most of the congressional candidates are using Denver media.  The negative ads are now focused on CO-04 as the GOP has basically pulled out of the open seat in CO-07, conceding it to Ed Perlmutter.  The DCCC now has a presence in CO-04, and is dropping six-figures in advertising money, as wel as providing field operatives.

Angie is a great candidate for anyone who has met her, and she has a nice, positive ad to end the campaign.

I will report more from CO-04 tomorrow.

We do not want to wake up on Nov. 8th and see this headline – or anything similar – splashed across any newspaper in the country:

Join Al Gore – do MoveOn’s Call for Change. It’s easy as pie. And it’ll help make sure we avoid seeing anything like the above.

(Via Yankee Doodler.)

The PBS program NOW, recently came to Central Texas looking for election stories where the war in Iraq might impact Congressional races. They interviewed John last week, as well as Democrat  Mary Beth Harrell.  Mary Beth is running in Congressional District 31, against Republican incumbent John Carter. That district includes Fort Hood, and the District 31 race was the focus of the PBS TV program that aired Friday Nov. 3rd, entitled “Sway the Course”.  

NOW program producers had so much good video they shot with John, but very little opportunity to air it all in one program. The producers decided to make John’s interview a web exclusive. 

From the PBS NOW web site:

About John Courage

John Courage is one of the so-called “fighting Dems,” one of over 60 veterans from around the country seeking higher office as a Democrat. Courage is running for Congress in the 21st district in Texas, which includes the city of San Antonio, a city known as ‘military town U.S.A.’ His opponent is Republican incumbent Lamar Smith.

Courage, who believes U.S. forces should withdraw from Iraq as quickly as possible, hopes his military service will help him win. “Now is the time for Democrats, particularly veteran Democrats, to stand up and say, ‘You know we’re tired of being told we’re unpatriotic as a Democratic party,'” Courage told NOW.

You can go onto the PBS NOW website and view the web interview segment titled Vets for Congress

The video has very high quality production and is very focused on on the war issue.  There’s a nice segment where two Vietnam veterans, Emilio Serrano and “Dutch” Berkley, speak out against the war.  Their concern for our military is personal and well stated.  They’ve served their country before and they’ve been down this same road before.  They think it’s time to bring the troops home, and they’re stepping up to help John Courage get elected because John shares that military experience with them.  Veterans supporting veterans.  This is one of the most important issues in this race.

You can also read the transcript of the program on the PBS website.

HotlineTV had a fun 20 minute episode today featuring editors Chuck Todd and John Mercurio making predictions for all the districts that they deemed to be competitive. It was almost comprehensive, but they neglected to make calls on at least a few districts that are in some degree of play this year: IL-06, IL-08, IL-10, NE-01, NY-03, SC-05, TX-17, VT-AL, WA-05, and WY-AL, for instance.

I’ve reproduced their predictions in full below. Now, I’m not saying that either of these guys will be right, but we might as well use this as a conversation stimulator. How many seats will we win on Nov. 7 in the House and Senate? Which ones will they be, and why? Will the Republicans manage to snag at least one pickup in the House or Senate this year? How about the Governor’s mansions and state legislators or any other important election that you’re keeping an eye on? We had our prediction contest a few weeks ago, but now it’s time to broaden the playing field.

District	Todd	Mercurio
AZ-01	Renzi	Renzi
AZ-05	Mitchell	Mitchell
AZ-08	Giffords	Giffords
CA-04	Doolittle	Doolittle
CA-11	McNerney	Pombo
CA-50	Bilbray	Bilbray
CO-04	Paccione	Musgrave
CO-05	Lamborn	Lamborn
CO-07	Perlmutter	Perlmutter
CT-02	Simmons	Courtney
CT-04	Farrell	Farrell
CT-05	Murphy	Johnson
FL-08	Keller	Keller
FL-09	Bilirakis	Bilirakis
FL-13	Jennings	Jennings
FL-16	Mahoney	Mahoney
FL-22	Shaw	Klein
GA-08	Marshall	Marshall
GA-12	Barrow	Barrow
ID-01	Sali	Grant
IN-02	Donnelly	Donnelly
IN-08	Ellsworth	Ellsworth
IN-09	Hill	Hill
IA-01	Braley	Braley
IA-02	Leach	Leach
IA-03	Boswell	Boswell
IA-04	Latham	Latham
KS-02	Ryun	Ryun
KY-02	Lewis	Lewis
KY-03	Yarmuth	Northup
KY-04	Lucas	Lucas
MN-01	Walz	Walz
MN-06	Wetterling	Wetterling
NE-03	Smith	Smith
NV-02	Heller	Heller
MV-03	Hafen	Porter
NH-02	Hodes	Bass
NM-01	Madrid	Madrid
NY-19	Kelly	Kelly
NY-20	Sweeney	Sweeney
NY-24	Arcuri	Meier
NY-25	Walsh	Walsh
NY-26	Reynolds	Reynolds
NY-29	Kuhl	Kuhl
NC-08	Hayes	Hayes
NC-11	Shuler	Shuler
OH-01	Cranley	Cranley
OH-02	Wulsin	Schmidt
OH-12	Shamansky	Tiberi
OH-15	Kilroy	Kilroy
OH-18	Space	Space
PA-06	Gerlach	Murphy
PA-07	Sestak	Sestak
PA-08	Murphy	Murphy
PA-10	Carney	Carney
TX-22	Lampson	Lampson
TX-23	Runoff	No Runoff
VA-02	Kellam	Drake
WA-08	Burner	Burner
WI-08	Kagen	Kagen

SUSA has released 3 more polls: IN-09, Hill-D down by 2; OH-06, Wilson-D up by 19; and MD-Gov, O’Malley up by 1. More below the fold.

IN-09:

Hill (D): 44

Sodrel (R-inc.): 46

Schansberg (L): 5

Undecided: 4

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Schansberg is pulling Liberal support away from Hill-D to the tune of picking up 11% of the Liberal vote, 2% of the Conservative vote, and 5% from Moderates.

OH-06 (OPEN):

Wilson (D): 58

Blasdell (R): 39

Undecided: 3

(MoE: ±4.2%)

MD-Gov:

O’Malley (D): 48

Ehrlich (R-inc.): 47

Undecided: 2

(MoE: ±3.8%)

(From the diaries with minor editing – promoted by James L.)

You have GOT to check out this independent poll!

http://www.ktvb.com/…

Yes, the number of undecideds is absurd, the MOE is huge, and our margins our slim, but HOLY GOD this is wonderful news! God bless Howard Dean and the fifty state strategy! WE’RE LEADING IN FRIGGIN’ IDAHO!

ID-Gov:

Jerry Brady (D): 41

Butch Otter (R): 36

Undecided: 20

MoE: ±4.4%

ID-01:

Larry Grant (D): 38

Bill Sali (R): 34

Undecided: 25

MoE: ±5.7%

On the web: Larry Grant  |  Jerry Brady

(Bumped – promoted by DavidNYC)

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Now with color-coded map! A little rough-hewn, but you get the idea (I love David, but I’m afraid we’ll have to keep him away from the crayolas from now on. Here’s a somewhat better-looking map–James L.):

Note: States with two poll closing times are color-coded according to the earlier closing time, except for Oregon, where the majority of the state is in the later time zone. And if you can’t see the map, click here for a mirror link. And just to be clear, these times are all Eastern, NOT local. Also, it looks like voters in some precincts of Indiana will be able to vote until 9pm local.

Below is a list of poll closing times in every state in the nation, plus a selection of key House, Senate and gubernatorial races in 44 of them:

State	EST	Race(s) to Watch
Indiana (Eastern)	6:00pm	IN-02, IN-03, IN-07, IN-08, IN-09
Kentucky (Eastern)	6:00pm	KY-02, KY-03, KY-04
Florida (Peninsula)	7:00pm	FL-09, FL-13, FL-16, FL-22, FL-24, FL-Gov
Georgia	7:00pm	GA-08, GA-12
Indiana (Western)	7:00pm	IN-02, IN-03, IN-07, IN-08, IN-09
Kentucky (Western)	7:00pm	KY-02, KY-03, KY-04
New Hampshire (Townships)	7:00pm	NH-01, NH-02
South Carolina	7:00pm	SC-05, SC-Gov
Vermont	7:00pm	VT-AL
Virginia	7:00pm	VA-02, VA-10, VA-Sen
North Carolina (Standard)	7:30pm	NC-08, NC-11, NC-13
Ohio	7:30pm	OH-01, OH-02, OH-12, OH-15, OH-18, OH-Gov, OH-Sen
West Virginia	7:30pm	WV-01, WV-02
Alabama	8:00pm	AL-Gov
Connecticut	8:00pm	CT-02, CT-04, CT-05, CT-Sen
Delaware	8:00pm
Florida (Panhandle)	8:00pm	FL-09, FL-13, FL-16, FL-22, FL-24, FL-Gov
Illinois	8:00pm	IL-06, IL-08, IL-10, IL-Gov
Kansas	8:00pm	KS-02
Maine	8:00pm	ME-Gov
Maryland	8:00pm	MD-Gov, MD-Sen
Massachusetts	8:00pm	MA-Gov
Michigan (Most of state)	8:00pm	MI-Gov, MI-Sen
Mississippi	8:00pm
Missouri	8:00pm	MO-Sen
New Hampshire (Cities)	8:00pm	NH-01, NH-02
New Jersey	8:00pm	NJ-05, NJ-07, NJ-Sen
Oklahoma	8:00pm
Pennsylvania	8:00pm	PA-04, PA-06, PA-07, PA-08, PA-10, PA-Gov, PA-Sen
South Dakota (Eastern)	8:00pm	SD-Gov
Tennessee	8:00pm	TN-Sen
Texas (Eastern)	8:00pm	TX-14, TX-17, TX-23, TX-32, TX-Gov
Arkansas	8:30pm	AR-Gov
North Carolina (Optional)	8:30pm	NC-08, NC-11, NC-13
Arizona	9:00pm	AZ-01, AZ-05, AZ-08, AZ-Sen
Colorado	9:00pm	CO-04, CO-05, CO-07, CO-Gov
Louisiana	9:00pm	LA-02, LA-03
Michigan (Western U.P.)	9:00pm	MI-Gov, MI-Sen
Minnesota	9:00pm	MN-01, MN-02, MN-06, MN-Gov, MN-Sen
Nebraska	9:00pm	NE-01, NE-03
New Mexico	9:00pm	NM-01
New York	9:00pm	NY-03, NY-13, NY-19, NY-20, NY-24, NY-25, NY-26, NY-29, NY-Gov
Rhode Island	9:00pm	RI-Gov, RI-Sen
South Dakota (Western)	9:00pm	SD-Gov
Texas (Western)	9:00pm	TX-14, TX-17, TX-21, TX-23, TX-32, TX-Gov
Wisconsin	9:00pm	WI-08, WI-Gov
Wyoming	9:00pm	WY-AL
Idaho (Southern)	10:00pm	ID-01, ID-Gov
Iowa	10:00pm	IA-01 , IA-02, IA-04, IA-Gov
Montana	10:00pm	MT-Sen
Nevada	10:00pm	NV-02, NV-03, NV-Gov, NV-Sen
North Dakota (Eastern)	10:00pm
Oregon (Western)	10:00pm	OR-Gov
Utah	10:00pm
California	11:00pm	CA-04, CA-11, CA-50, CA-Gov
Hawaii	11:00pm
Idaho (Panhandle)	11:00pm	ID-01, ID-Gov
North Dakota (Western)	11:00pm
Oregon (Eastern)	11:00pm	OR-Gov
Washington	11:00pm	WA-05, WA-08, WA-Sen
Alaska (Mainland)	12:00am	AK-Gov
Alaska (Western Aleutians)	1:00am	AK-Gov

All times are Eastern. Please note that some states are split across two time zones and consequently have two different poll closing times. I’ve split the affected states up accordingly, which is why there are more than 50 listings.

Also, we haven’t tried to list every single possible race here, just those that we (James & I) feel are potentially interesting. As I say, we’ve confined ourselves just to Congress and the statehouses. Here are some other resources you might want to consult:

• For important Secretary of State races, check out the Secretary of State Project.

• To get a sense of which state legislatures are up for grabs, take a look at this chart from the DLCC (PDF).

• And for a complete list of ballot measures nationwide, this guide from the I & R Institute (PDF) is the definitive source.

If there are any worthy races you’re following that aren’t on this list, please post them in comments, preferably with a link to a site that will be posting the results. (You usually can’t find returns for smaller local races on CNN.) Also, if you notice any errors, please let us know as well.

(Special thanks to the Green Papers, which was the source for all the poll closing times.)

As you may know, there are few things as important in the final four days of a campaign than contacting voters personally and encouraging them to come out to the polls.  And that’s why Moveon.org is an incredibly important piece of machinery for grassroots Democrats to use this weekend.  Moveon.org has set up a simple yet innovative program that has identified millions of “drop off” Democratic voters in close races around the country–these are voters who typically vote Democratic in Presidential elections, but are unmotivated to go to the polls in midterm election years. 

The program has already made 4 million calls to such voters, and Moveon hopes to boost that total by another half million over this weekend.  In 1994, many races were won by Republicans by very thin margins with the help of a depressed Democratic base.  Let’s turn the tables and excite as many Democrats as possible this weekend.  Can you commit to an hour or more of phonebanking for Moveon.org this weekend?  Can you attend or host a Rock The House (and Senate) Phone Party this weekend or on election day?

It’s easy, it’s fun, the interface is people-friendly, and you’ll be calling Democrats (not conservative independents who may chew your head off).  Even Al Gore approves.  Best of all, you just might help tip the scales in a tight race this cycle.

Call For Change today.