Final Weekly Open Thread of the Cycle: Predictions Time!

HotlineTV had a fun 20 minute episode today featuring editors Chuck Todd and John Mercurio making predictions for all the districts that they deemed to be competitive. It was almost comprehensive, but they neglected to make calls on at least a few districts that are in some degree of play this year: IL-06, IL-08, IL-10, NE-01, NY-03, SC-05, TX-17, VT-AL, WA-05, and WY-AL, for instance.

I’ve reproduced their predictions in full below. Now, I’m not saying that either of these guys will be right, but we might as well use this as a conversation stimulator. How many seats will we win on Nov. 7 in the House and Senate? Which ones will they be, and why? Will the Republicans manage to snag at least one pickup in the House or Senate this year? How about the Governor’s mansions and state legislators or any other important election that you’re keeping an eye on? We had our prediction contest a few weeks ago, but now it’s time to broaden the playing field.




















































































































































































































































































































District Todd Mercurio
AZ-01 Renzi Renzi
AZ-05 Mitchell Mitchell
AZ-08 Giffords Giffords
CA-04 Doolittle Doolittle
CA-11 McNerney Pombo
CA-50 Bilbray Bilbray
CO-04 Paccione Musgrave
CO-05 Lamborn Lamborn
CO-07 Perlmutter Perlmutter
CT-02 Simmons Courtney
CT-04 Farrell Farrell
CT-05 Murphy Johnson
FL-08 Keller Keller
FL-09 Bilirakis Bilirakis
FL-13 Jennings Jennings
FL-16 Mahoney Mahoney
FL-22 Shaw Klein
GA-08 Marshall Marshall
GA-12 Barrow Barrow
ID-01 Sali Grant
IN-02 Donnelly Donnelly
IN-08 Ellsworth Ellsworth
IN-09 Hill Hill
IA-01 Braley Braley
IA-02 Leach Leach
IA-03 Boswell Boswell
IA-04 Latham Latham
KS-02 Ryun Ryun
KY-02 Lewis Lewis
KY-03 Yarmuth Northup
KY-04 Lucas Lucas
MN-01 Walz Walz
MN-06 Wetterling Wetterling
NE-03 Smith Smith
NV-02 Heller Heller
MV-03 Hafen Porter
NH-02 Hodes Bass
NM-01 Madrid Madrid
NY-19 Kelly Kelly
NY-20 Sweeney Sweeney
NY-24 Arcuri Meier
NY-25 Walsh Walsh
NY-26 Reynolds Reynolds
NY-29 Kuhl Kuhl
NC-08 Hayes Hayes
NC-11 Shuler Shuler
OH-01 Cranley Cranley
OH-02 Wulsin Schmidt
OH-12 Shamansky Tiberi
OH-15 Kilroy Kilroy
OH-18 Space Space
PA-06 Gerlach Murphy
PA-07 Sestak Sestak
PA-08 Murphy Murphy
PA-10 Carney Carney
TX-22 Lampson Lampson
TX-23 Runoff No Runoff
VA-02 Kellam Drake
WA-08 Burner Burner
WI-08 Kagen Kagen

28 thoughts on “Final Weekly Open Thread of the Cycle: Predictions Time!”

  1. Holy jesus.

    Only one seat is going to switch? The NY-24 is going to switch, 100% sure. Even with that prediction only one of the two guys believed it.

    Whats up with that?

    I say to thee nay.
    — MrMacMan

  2. Ok–Largely agree with them, but Dems will pick 2-3 seats
    in upstate NY not just 0 or 1.

    BUT, I think Sodrel hangs on in IN-9.  Looking at the polling, it’s been a slow downhill slide for Hill.

    Is SUSA showing a GOP tilt in many of its recent polls?  I think Burner is a stretch in WA-08.  What I’m hoping for is a secure majority because we will have to defend so many shaky seats in 2008.  I’m a little more bearish and will stick with +25 seats.

    In the Senate, it will be a somewhat disappointing 4 seat pickup.  Tester hangs on in Montana, but Cardin loses in Maryland and Missouri will be a heartbreaker.

  3. their NY predictions make no sense. Don’t agree with 19-Kelly, 20-Sweeney, 25-Walsh or 29-Kuhl and not NE-03 nor AZ-01 neither. I can see some of the ones I’ve got as Toss-ups they have split on. But a first pass here shows very few agreements with “Mercurio” who is he?
    (I know who Todd is).
    Steele just cannot win BTW, not allowed to happen!

  4. If Democrat incumbent John BARROW holds on to win in GA-12 and I believe he will, I view him as the most endangered Democrat Seat: Governor, Senate, or House anywhere in America. Then there is an excellent chance that 2006 might be the first time in American history a major party fails to take a single Governorship, Senate or House seat from the opposition.  Even in the 1974 Watergate landslide the GOP took a seat.

    And the reason this mid-term appears headed to wave status is the inabilty of the GOP to offset expected loses with take overs of their own. 

    This election is coming down to the most important race in America in 2006.  The Missouri Senate race: GOP Incumbent Jim Talent v. Democrat Clair McKaskill. 

  5. ….but has anyone else been following the Minnesota Governor’s race and this week’s eleventh-hour implosion of Democrat Mike Hatch?  It all started on Tuesday when his running mate Judi Dutcher drew a blank at a press conference when asked about her thoughts on E-85, an ethanol-blended fuel that is all the rage in Minnesota’s agricultural communities.  Hatch’s attempts at damage control were awkward and capstoned with a disastrous melee with a Duluth reporter via telephone, where he allegedly erupted in rage, called the reporter a “Republican whore” and hung up the phone. 

    Hatch now claims that he said “Republican hack”, but the story is out and consuming the Twin Cities media market (thankfully, it’s all but invisible in the Rochester-Austin media market where my parents live….at least so far).  The news organization will not release the audio tape record that would either vindicate or repudiate Hatch’s denial, but even if the tape is ultimately released, it sure seems like the damage is done this soon before the election, particularly when it reinforces Hatch’s reputation as a thin-skinned hothead.  What a disaster!

    My fear is the disaster could be compounded.  Not only does Hatch’s meltdown increase the likelihood that Minnesota will be stuck with Tim Pawlenty for four years, it also throws a monkey wrench into Democrats’ ability to win other races.  With the Senate race between Klobuchar and Kennedy poised to be a Democratic blowout, the gubernatorial race was the marquee contest.  If DFL turnout is suppressed as a result, it could negatively impact the chances of Tim Walz, Patty Wetterling, both Houses of the state legislature, and the state’s three constitutional offices, all of which the DFL had odds-on chances of winning. 

    I no longer live in Minnesota, but it remains the state I’m most connected to politically.  Every two years, it seems like there’s a disastrous turn of events in the final 10 days before the election.  The Wellstone death and subsequent memorial service in 2002, the release of the Osama bin Laden video in 2004, and at least locally, Hatch’s seismic blunders in the gubernatorial race.  I was pretty pumped about this election on Friday morning.  Right now, not so much.

  6. up “Mark” as I’ve always assumed your were a Republican based on your posts here. Which BTW doesn’t matter to me, but was my thought. I never assumed this site was exclusive (for Dems only) and frankly I feel freer to voice my thoughts here than DKos, where any post with the least bit of negativity or concern could be met with a “troll rating”. That can stifle a free & honest discourse.

    I’m also a Pessimist (and major cynic) by nature however I’m also a realist and I do not beleive any pessimism about Democratic Party gains is “grounded and realistic” this year. I’ve been through many elections, since 1960, and can read the writing on the proverbial wall. I’ve made any number of mis-predictions,and am always aware that my wants may color those predictions, but try to avoid that.

    Anyway, to each his own. Cheers.

    1. ….but the chatter on the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s website was very concerning.  The fact that it consumed the first 15 minutes of last night’s gubernatorial debate certainly didn’t help matters either.  Perhaps the story will die IF the newspaper never releases the audio tape.  If they wait until tomorrow or Monday to do so, it’s very bad news for Hatch.

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