Tag: Marilyn Musgrave

• MN-Sen: Despite the seemingly increased likelihood that he’d jerk Al Franken around now that he doesn’t have to worry about re-election and how impatient Minnesotans feel about the Senate vacancy, Gov. Tim Pawlenty says he’ll certify Al Franken as winner of the Senate race if the state Supreme Court directs him to do so. Also, many are interpreting John Cornyn‘s comments about how the Senate GOP doesn’t have the votes to filibuster Sonia Sotomayor, even if they wanted to, as being a tacit admission that Franken would be seated soon.

• NC-Sen: It never quite seemed likely, but Elizabeth Edwards silenced any speculation that she might run for Senate against Richard Burr next year.

• KY-Sen: Here’s a new name sniffing out the Kentucky Senate primary. A staffer for Rep. Ed Whitfield from KY-01 just bought both domain names for “whitfieldforsenate.com” and “whitfieldforgovernor.com” (and inexplicably paid $800 for the two names). Maybe SoS Trey Grayson may have some company in the primary if Jim Bunning truly does bail out?

• VA-Gov: Ex-Del. Brian Moran leaked an internal poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner to Political Wire. Lo and behold, it shows Moran in the lead, with 29% to 27% for Creigh Deeds and 26% for Terry McAuliffe. (Meaning that in the last week, each of the three primary candidates have led a poll.) (UPDATE: PPP points out a flaw here: this isn’t a topline, but the result from a subsample that’s disposed to do well for Moran: people who’ve participated in Democratic primaries prior to last year’s presidential race.)

Fundraising numbers for the three candidates also just came out: McAuliffe is way ahead on the money front, with $1.8 mil raised last quarter and $1.3 mil CoH ($7 mil total). Deeds raised $676K with $521K CoH ($3.8 mil total), and Moran raised $844K with $700 CoH ($4.8 mil total).

• MN-Gov: With T-Paw getting out, a flood of second-tier Republicans has spilled out in search of the nomination. State Sen. David Hann, state Sen. Geoff Michel, state Rep. Marty Seifert, state Rep. Paul Kohls, and former legislator Charlie Weaver are “interested.” Former Auditor Pat Anderson is going so far as to say she’ll announce in a month or two. Others mentioned include state Rep. Laura Brod, national committee member Brian Sullivan, and former state House speaker and current Labor and Industry Commissioner Steve Sviggum. The Star-Tribune also mentioned former Rep. Jim Ramstad (who’d do well in the general but may be too moderate to survive the nominating convention), state Sen. minority leader David Senjem, and one very big wild card… Norm Coleman, although his dragging-out of the Senate race can’t have helped his favorables. One prominent name who apparently isn’t interested: Rep. Michele Bachmann.

• MI-Gov: The Republican field in the Michigan governor’s race got even more crowded, as Oakland Co. Sheriff Rick Bouchard got in. (Bouchard lost the 2006 Senate race to Debbie Stabenow.) Bouchard’s entry was faciliated when his boss, Oakland Co. Exec L. Brooks Patterson, declined to run — but Bouchard may do exactly what Patterson would have done, which is split the Detroit suburban vote with AG Mike Cox, making it easier for Rep. Pete Hoekstra from the state’s west to sneak through.

• CO-04: Ex-Rep. Marilyn Musgrave fired off a rather unhinged-sounding fundraising letter on behalf of her new employers in the culture war, the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List. This may actually work to Rep. Betsy Markey’s advantage; she made reference to Musgrave’s letter in her own appeal for contributions.

• FL-17: Politics1 has an interesting, if a bit unsavory, rumor coming out of south Florida: 83-year-old former Rep. Carrie Meek may get on the ballot in FL-17, essentially to act as a one-term placeholder for her son, Rep. Kendrick Meek. (If he lost the Senate race, she would re-retire in 2012 and thus let him get his old job back. Or, if Meek won the Senate race, she’d still retire and let someone new take over FL-17.) Meek denied the rumor, though, to National Journal.

• FL-25: Here’s a potentially big name to take on Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, who beat Joe Garcia by a small margin in 2008. Miami Mayor Manny Diaz is reportedly taking a look at the race; his name has also been mentioned in connection with the open Lt. Gov. slot.

• NC-11: PPP’s Tom Jensen looks at possible Democratic successors in this R+6 district if Rep. Heath Shuler gives up the seat to run for Senate. He cites state Sens. John Snow and Joe Sam Queen as likeliest. (He also links to a great map from Civitas that calculates the PVI for all of North Carolina’s state Senate districts.)

• SC-01: Rep. Henry Brown threw a “thank you” party in Myrtle Beach for his supporters, and at least 11 people walked away with the best possible tokens of his gratitude: diarrhea and nausea. State health officials are investigating to see if it was the result of food poisoning or just of the Republican rhetoric. Also, 2008 challenger Linda Ketner, who came close to knocking off Brown as an openly lesbian candidate in a dark-red district, may not be looking to run again. She did a refreshingly honest interview with FireDogLake, maybe a little too refreshing vis-a-vis her future viability, in terms of referring to “the conservative, religious crazy vote” and outing several prominent South Carolina politicians.

• UT-LG: A third generation of Romneys is getting warmed up (in a third state). Mitt Romney’s 33-year-old son Josh has been in talks with soon-to-be-Gov. Gary Herbert about the open Lieutenant Governor’s position.

• AL-St. Senate: Democrats can still be a downballot force in Alabama, managing to hold a state Senate seat in a deep-red part of rural Alabama north of Mobile. State Rep. Mark Keahey (who’s only 28) narrowly defeated Republican former state Rep. Greg Albritton, in a special election triggered by the January death of Democratic Sen. Pat Lindsey. (UPDATE: Actually, it turns out that the margin wasn’t so tight. Keahey crushed Albritton by a devastating 58-42 margin.)

• NH-St. House: In another special election, Democrats held a state House seat based in Lebanon, New Hampshire, as fire captain Andy White beat Republican Randy Wagoner. It’s Democratic-leaning turf, but the GOP turned this into a proxy battle over gay marriage (White is a vote in favor of it), and out-of-district money enabled Wagoner to outspend White at least 4-to-1.

• NJ-Gov: Another day, another ugly poll for Jon Corzine. This time, it’s this month’s installment of the Quinnipiac poll. Not much change from last month: Chris Christie leads Corzine 46-37, up a bit from 44-38. This despite 61% of voters not knowing enough about Christie to form an opinion of him!

• KY-Sen: Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson may be the guy on the GOP’s wish list for the Kentucky Senate seat, but he said yesterday that he’s running for Senate only if Jim Bunning retires. (What are the odds on that?) Meanwhile, state senate president David Williams is accusing Grayson and Bunning of being in cahoots to shut him out of the race. Good times.

• CT-Sen: You gotta love Joe Lieberman, always there to lend a helping hand. Lieberman announced that he’s supporting Chris Dodd for re-election, even though Dodd supported, y’know, the Democrat in the 2006 general. As Lanny Davis puts it, “Being a mensch and a friend is more important than carrying a grudge.”

• CO-04: Nice to see that someone can get a job in this economy: Marilyn Musgrave has emerged from months of post-defeat seclusion to take a leadership position with something called the Susan B. Anthony List, apparently a bizarro-world EMILY’s List that supports anti-abortion female candidates for office. (No word on whether Anthony plans to sue to get her name back.) It’s unclear whether this is permanent or Musgrave is staying close to donors until a rematch in CO-04.

• KS-01, KS-04: Mike Huckabee (who overwhelmingly won the Kansas caucuses) is wading into the primaries to fill the two safe GOP seats left vacant by the Jerry Moran/Todd Tiahrt scrum for the open senate seat. He’s endorsing state senator Tim Huelskamp in KS-01 and state senator Dick Kelsey in KS-04. RNC member Mike Pompeo is also expected to run in KS-04, while ex-aide to Sam Brownback Rob Wasinger and businessman Tim Barker are already running in KS-01.

• Maps: Here’s a nice resource to bookmark, from Ruy Teixeira and the Center for American Progress: it’s a collection of interactive maps showing state-by-state 04-08 and 88-08 shifts, along with piles of 08 exit poll data.

• MN-Sen: As if you needed one more reason not to donate to Republicans, the Norm Coleman campaign accidentally made public 4.3 GB of donors’ personal data, including credit card numbers and security information.

Grove Insight for EMILY’s List (9/8-10, likely voters):

Betsy Markey (D): 47

Marilyn Musgrave (R-inc): 38

(MoE: ±4.9%)

This is the third poll we’ve seen showing Musgrave behind; an internal Markey poll from May had Musgrave trailing by seven, and a recent SurveyUSA poll confirmed that spread. In fact, the only poll we’ve seen of this race with Musgrave ahead was an internal poll conducted for her campaign in March that pegged her lead at five points.

One thing worth noting about the poll, though: It was conducted before a recent kerfluffle over highly charged ads by Musgrave alleging ethics violations by Markey during her time spent as an aide to Sen. Ken Salazar. There’s also this:

However, the partisan edge among self-identified Republicans in the poll is smaller than the party’s advantage in voter registration numbers and historic turnout trends, suggesting GOP voters might be under-represented in the poll. The Republican identification edge over Democrats was 9 points in the poll, compared to 13 points in current registration numbers in the 4th Congressional District and 17 points in the 2004 and 2006 election turnout numbers.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

Roll Call had SurveyUSA do a poll of CO-04, and they just found that Betsy Markey (D) is leading Marilyn Musgrave (R) 50%-43%!

Musgrave trailed Democratic challenger Betsy Markey 50 percent to 43 percent in the poll conducted by SurveyUSA for Roll Call. Seven percent remained undecided. In an equally troubling sign for Musgrave, 51 percent of respondents said they had an unfavorable view of the three-term Congresswoman, while 31 percent viewed her favorably.

The poll of 618 likely voters was taken Aug. 22-24. It had a 4-point margin of error.

The survey found that Markey had a big lead among female voters, 53 percent to 38 percent. The two women were essentially tied among male voters.

More importantly, Markey had a huge lead in two voter groups that will be essential in deciding the election: independents and moderates. She led by 30 points among independent voters, 59 percent to 29 percent, and by 41 points among self-described moderates, 67 percent to 26 percent. Musgrave will have to close the gap in those two groups in order to have a chance at making the race competitive heading into Election Day.

Bonus finding: in CO-04, McCain is barely leading Obama 48%-46% in this historically Republican district.  As a reference point, Bush got 57% of the vote in CO-04 in 2000, and then got 58% in 2004.

And why should all Democrats be attacking the Republicans’ ties to Big Oil?

Mirroring national polls, the survey found that the economy was by far the biggest issue on the minds of voters, as 41 percent of respondents said Congress should focus on that issue above all others. Immigration was second with 11 percent of respondents saying that is the most pressing issue. All other issues, including Iraq, terrorism, gasoline prices and the environment, polled in the single digits.

The survey found that voters overwhelmingly blame oil companies for the high price of gas. Thirty-eight percent of respondents blamed oil companies, whom Democrats have been seeking to link to Republicans in paid media advertising. Congress and environmentalists were tied for second in blame for gas prices, with 14 percent.

The Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund has thrown down $200,000 on an ad buy targeting GOP Rep. Marilyn Musgrave. The Hill has more:

Earlier in the week the organization endorsed Musgrave’s challenger, businesswoman Betsy Markey, in a release assailing Musgrave’s environmental record as “atrocious.”

“This is just the beginning of a sustained campaign, and the rest will be rolled out in due course,” said Jessica Brand, an Action Fund associate.

Musgrave has been a traditional target of third-party expenditures for the past several cycles, and it looks like this year will be no different. Will the constant barrage of negative ads finally do Musgrave in? The internal polls — from both sides of the aisle — look dicey for Musgrave.

In other Colorado news, the League of Conservation Voters has been ponied up $125,000 on media buys and $10,000 on door hangers on behalf of Democrat Mark Udall last week, bringing their total investment in the Senate race to over $375,000.

A leading contender for the CO-04 seat of Marilyn ‘Defense of Homophobia Amendment’ Musgrave has left the race.

Angie Paccione who narrowly lost against Musgrave eliminated herself from the potential rematch today to pursue a job in the private sector:

SquareState

There are no words adequate enough to describe the privilege I’ve had representing the people of Fort Collins as their State Representative and as the Democratic candidate for the people of the 4th Congressional District.  In 2000, when there was no democratic candidate on the ballot for the 4th CD, I was motivated to enter politics to fill the void in leadership. At that time I offered my service as the voice of the people in representative government. I am forever changed, forever grateful, and forever indebted to the people for the opportunity they gave me to serve them.

This opens up a much easier primary for the now leading Democratic contender Betsy Markey, who until now was hampered by shallow fundraising.

Also in the primary is ex-libertarian-ex-Republican-ex-Independent Eric Eidness, who was a distant third last race. It is unclear if the Democrats are better positioned or not with Eidness not running as a third party, but the improved clarity in the race overall will probably move this race closer to being a real pick up opportunity.

The RNCC has in the past suggested that they would again pump the millions into Musgraves races that they have in the last two cycles, but with internal squabbles on the RNCC and their weakened fundraising, Musgrave might find herself relatively orphaned.

You may remember these results from election night ’06:

4th District, Colorado

Marilyn Musgrave (R): 46%
Angie Paccione (D): 43%
Eric Eidsness (Reform): 11%

Eric Eidsness is a former Naval officer and Reagan appointee to the EPA.  His Wikipedia bio also lists his affiliation with Republicans For Kerry in 2004.  Despite competing for attention in a marquee race, Eidsness managed to pick up a bit of traction, gaining the endorsements of several local newspapers and cracking the double digits on election day.

Without wasting any time, Eidsness is back in the ring, and this time, he’s wearing Democratic stripes:

Eric Eidsness […] announced today that he’s switching his party affiliation to Democrat.

The announcement is likely a prelude to another congressional run for Eidsness, a long-time Republican who was a top Environmental Protection Agency administrator in the Reagan administration.

“I am a new Democrat who can bring business savvy and fiscal restraint to the Democratic Party’s proposals should I run for Congress in 2008 and win,” Eidsness said in a prepared statement.

I’m not sure how he’d manage in a primary field, but this an interesting development.  As far as third-party types go, it’s clear that Eidsness has a bit of game in him.  Will Colorado Democrats be comfortable–or willing–to hand the torch over to him?

(Hat-tip to Luis and Square State.)

Race Tracker: CO-04

While Bush may have come to Greeley, CO to try to save the seat of Marilyn Musgrave on Saturday, the candidates here in Colorado who can speak before a crowd without the need of a script rallied today, Sunday, in this battleground city of the 4th CD.

Senator Ken Salazar, Gubernatorial candidate Bill Ritter and Democratic congressional challenger Angie Paccione took the stage before about 500 enthusiatic citizens to explain why this is such an important election.  When Angie took the microphone to cheers of “Angie!  Angie!  Angie!”  She presented the simple, obvious reasons why the Democrats must take back Congress and why Musgrave must go.

More after the jump.

If you have ever seen Angie speak, you would know how she draws upon the energy of the crowd — and this crowd was electric.  Angie doesn’t need a script to explain why it is so important for the Democrats to be in the majority — to raise the minimum wage, to implement the recommendations of the 9/11 Commission, to vote to override Bush’s veto of stem-cell research, to get rid of the corrupt politicans who are doing the bidding of special interests.

But Angie was most eloquent when she reminded the audience of Eisenhower’s statement that “America is great because America is good” — telling the audience that when the Democrats return to the majority in Congress, they will “make America great again because they will make sure America is good again.”

After the event, some reporters gathered around Angie to ask her questions — about the last 2 days of campaigning and what she thought would happen.  Using the analogy from her basketball playing days, she said that the campaign was peaking at the right time as the polls showed the race now basically a toss-up.

When asked “What do you think of Bush and Cheney coming to this state to rally for the Republicans?”  Angie replied, “Well, their numbers are in the tank — and if the Republicans in this state want to attach themselves to them, then their numbers will be in the tank too.”

As she explained: “There has been a massive failure of leadership both in Congress and his Administration.  People are looking for change.  I say if you want to change the Congress, you have to change the people you send to Congress.  And that’s why I am asking voters tio send me — because I’ll be that change.”

Whatever happens on Tuesday, nobody can question that Angie is going into the election fighting for every vote.