Month: July 2008

I’m looking for a roommate for NN.  You’d have your own bedroom in a 2BR situation, very, very close to the convention center, right on 6th St.  It’s about two block according to Google Maps.

If you want to be in the center of it all, get a cheaper room than the nearby hotels, all while maintaining some privacy, get in touch.

Your cost would be about $312, which covers a Wednesday check-in with Monday morning check-out (5 nights).  The nightly cost for the whole thing is cheaper than a room at the Hilton et al.  There is also a $200 refundable deposit that I will have to pay.  I’d ask for a check for $100 that I’d mail back to you when I got mine back.

The only downsides I am aware of: you must pay cash upon arrival (or money order / cashiers check) and it’s so close to the party district as to be noisy.  The noise is not a problem for me — I sleep fine with earplugs and recommend them if this is the only reason you’d pass this up.

There is, I understand, also a pullout sofa in a loft over the living area.  A third roommate could take that and reduce costs further, but I don’t really see the need.

More about your potential roommate after the flip…

Just in case you are particular about your roommates (we wouldn’t be sharing a bedroom, so such things are not a big deal to me):  I’m male, mid-thirties.  I do not smoke tobacco — if you do, just keep in outside the condo.  I do drink and am something of a beer snob (I homebrew), so I’ll be doing some beer tourism while in Austin.

I’m a longtime lurker, only occasional poster/commenter on dKos, OpenLeft, MyDD and such.  I am a political geek and can chat about it for hours, but then that’s why I’m going to NN.  

bumped

LA-Sen:

     Mary Landrieu (D-inc): >$1.5M raised; $5.4M CoH

The John Kennedy campaign is now claiming that they outraised Landrieu by a hair ($1.51M), after previously claiming to have brought in $1.48M in the second quarter.

MN-Sen:

     Al Franken (D): $2.26M raised; $4M CoH

     Norm Coleman (R-inc): $2.35M raised; $7.2M CoH

KY-Sen:

     Mitch McConnell (R-inc): >$3M raised; $9M CoH

FL-24:

     Tom Feeney (R-inc): >$400K raised; $780K CoH

This is the second quarter in a row where Feeney has been out-hustled by Democrat Suzanne Kosmas. Nice work.

VA-10:

     Judy Feder (D): $320K raised; $812K CoH (press release)

VA-11:

     Gerry Connolly (D): $300K CoH

     Keith Fimian (R): >$1M CoH

TX-23:

     Ciro Rodriguez (D-inc): >$300K raised; $1.2M CoH

     Lyle Larson (R): $263K raised; $277K CoH

CO-02:

     Will Shafroth (D): $280K raised; $736K CoH

2Q Fundraising Results Thread | …Stood Still | How I Learned To Stop Worrying… | I Know What You Raised… | …vs. the Saucermen From Mars | Attack of the 50’… | …Glorious 2Q Reports of Raising

With so many Republican candidates these days citing “scheduling conflicts” in order to avoid being seen with President Bush, it’s refreshing to see one young candidate who is willing to wrap his arms around Mr. 28% and hold on tight:

President George W. Bush is headed to the heart of Illinois to campaign for State Representative Aaron Schock.

The president will be in Peoria on July 25.

Schock’s campaign manager says details of the visit haven’t been worked out yet, but that tickets to a fundraising dinner will cost $500.

“Any patriotic American would be honored to have the President of the United States come to help them and I am very honored,” said Schock.

Granted, this is an R+5.5 district, but just ask Greg Davis how campaigning with members of the Bush Administration worked out for him in deep red Mississippi.

If a few weeks ago you’d asked me what Congressional district is least likely to ever be the subject of a front-page post at Swing State Project, NY-10 may have been the answer. The Brooklyn-based African-American-majority district is the paragon of ‘safe Democratic’ at D+41 (3rd in the nation, behind only NY-15 and NY-16); it’s been represented since time immemorial (well, 1982) by Edolphus Towns.

However, there’s a competitive primary here this year, and the weirdness begins with who the challenger is: Kevin Powell, who played the role of ‘angry black guy’ on the very first season of MTV’s The Real World in 1992 (making him a ‘reality TV’ star almost a decade before that became a term). Since then, he’s been a hip-hop journalist for Vibe magazine, has written several books, and has returned to Brooklyn to be a community activist and organizer.

Powell has gotten a lot of support from local activists looking to oust the entrenched Towns (he’s doing pretty well at the fundraising game, too, ending the quarter with over 100K CoH). He has celebrity supporters on his side (including Gloria Steinem, a fan of Powell’s public repudiation of some domestic violence incidents earlier in his life). But one celebrity has gone further in extending his credibility to Powell, even hosting a fundraiser on his behalf, and it’s a pretty big celeb: Dave Chappelle.

Trouble is, Chappelle was nowhere to be found for last night’s fundraiser. The Brooklyn Paper has a good roundup of the night’s events, which turned into quite the little fiasco (follow the link for much more schadenfreude):

Earlier, Powell had urged the crowd to bear with him, suggesting that the comedian was “on his way.” But as the 700 campaign contributors grew restless and the vast press contingent started asking questions, Powell made his admission that Chappelle actually would not be appearing. He blamed travel mix-ups.

“We were on the phones non-stop with Dave’s management to get him here,” said a contrite Powell, 42, who promised that campaign donors would get into his next celebrity event for free.

Now granted, Dave Chappelle has been kind of… uh… mercurial for the last few years, but if you’re running in a D+41 district, he’s still someone you’d rather have hosting a fundraiser for you than prominent Republican African-American ex-Representative J.C. Watts, right? Well, not if you’re Edolphus Towns:

Former House Republican Conference Chairman J.C. Watts (Okla.), who now runs a Washington, D.C.-based consulting firm and other businesses, is hosting a fundraiser for Rep. Edolphus Towns (D) on July 17.

The breakfast fundraiser will be held at the headquarters of JC Watts Companies in downtown D.C. Suggested contributions are $500 for individuals and $1,000 for political action committees.

Yesterday Matt Stoller had a good rundown of Towns’s transgressions, including voting for the bankruptcy bill and CAFTA. Seems like Towns (who generally has a high liberal ratings) has been able to sweep these pro-business votes under the rug… but sharing the stage with a guy who, for many years, was the only black Republican in Congress, can’t help make the constituents back home feel like he’s looking out for them first and foremost.

The following is my latest read on this fall’s Oregon elections.  This update is prompted by the release of some new registration data that goes down to the state legislative district level, thus allowing me to more correctly analyze the races.  This update includes all candidate races at the state legislative level and up (excluding local races) but does not include ballot measures.

For information, see my previous OR politics diaries:

Oregon Ballot Measures: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/25/113448/828/338/541717

Oregon’s Vote By Mail System FAQ (Written for the primary): http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/19/124239/061/359/518313.

My first post-primary update: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/16/121742/983/269/536725.

Crossposted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/showDiary.do?diaryId=1227

Data Sources:

Registration data comes from this document: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/may202008/p08stats_web.pdf or here: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/may202008/p08stats.pdf

Primary Election Results are here: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/may202008/p08results.html

The Statewide Layout:

Total Registered Voters: About 2 Million.

Democrats: 42% (+200k vs. Republicans)

Republicans: 33%.

Nonpartisan/Others: 25%.

Key:

Size of Districts:

State House: Aprox. 55k.

State Senate: Aprox. 110k.

The incumbent is always listed first, or failing that, the incumbent party.

Ratings:

Tossup-Margin less than 3%.

Lean-3-10% margin.

Likely-11-20% margin.

Safe-More than 20% margin.

Inc=Incumbent, Int=Interim Incumbent (Someone appointed to fill a seat until the next election due typically to resignation of the previous holder.  State law allows the party which held the seat to essentially appoint the replacement.  For example, when my State Senator resigned to take a job as the leader of a moderate Business Lobbying group, as a Precinct Committee Person I was entitled to vote for his replacement, which was then ratified by the County Commission).

Statewide Races:

US President

Candidates: Sen. John McCain (R) vs. Sen. Barack Obama (D).

Summary: The fact that McCain isn’t even trying to contest Oregon says a lot.  It would be a reach for him at best.  Obama, on the other hand, sent a bunch of the Obama fellows here a few weeks ago and is ramping up for the fall.

Rating: Leans to Likely Obama.

US Senate

Candidates: Sen. Gordon Smith (R-inc) vs. Speaker of the OR House Jeff Merkley (D).

Summary: This continues to be a bit of an uphill battle for Merkley.  However, Gordon’s Smith strange tack to the left, which has been widely discussed here and elsewhere, makes one wonder how this race is really shaping up.  Smith’s biggest advantage is still his $ lead but that is diminishing.  

Rating: Leans Smith.

Secretary of State

Candidates: State Senate Majority Leader Kate Brown (D) vs. Eugene TV Reporter Rick Dancer (R).

Summary: Kate Brown is going to absolutely kick the crap out of Dancer.  Dancer isn’t even that good of a candidate.  On an early appearance on Lars Larson’s talk radio program (he’s a well known conservative for those who don’t know), he seemed unaware of much of what the SOS actually does.

Rating: Likely to Safe Brown.

Attorney General

John Kroger (D) is unopposed.

State Treasurer

Candidates: State Senator Ben Westlund (D) vs. former Kulongoski staffer Allan Alley (R).

Summary: It is always so fan to see the Republicans go after Westlund, who used to be one of them until he saw the light.  Ben has the support of those on both sides of the aisle and should cruise to an easy victory here.

Rating: Likely to Safe Westlund.

Labor Commissioner (Technically a nonpartisan race, 2 year vacancy filling election)

Candidates: Former State Senator Brad Avakian (D-inc.) vs. Founder, Instructor/Provider of a physical and mental fitness program Pavel Goberman (D).

Summary: Avakian should have little trouble, given his status as a well known figure in state politics.

Rating: Safe Avakian.

Congressional Races:

District 1: Wu (D-inc) will cruise.

District 2: Walden (R-inc) will have little trouble.  If the margin is under 10% that’s a victory for the Ds.

District 3: Blumenauer (D-inc) is well-loved in this district and for good reason.

District 4: DeFazio (D-inc) is unopposed.

District 5

Candidates: State Senator Kurt Schrader (D) vs. Businessman and 2006 R Nominee Mike Erickson (R).

Registration Info: 161k Ds, 142k Rs, 98k NP/Others.

Summary: Time was this was considered one of the most contentious house races in the country.  Then two things happened.  First, the Obama registration boost changed this district from one with a very slight D edge to a somewhat substantial one.  Second, Kevin Mannix, who lost the R primary to Erickson, accused Erickson, who had claimed he was pro-life, of paying for a former girlfriend’s abortion.  This assertion was proven to be at least somewhat true and the resulting turmoil, along with some other recent discoveries has knocked Erickson well behind the pace.  Still, he can self-finance to a significant enough extent that this race is not out of reach for him.

Rating: Leans Schrader.  

Oregon Legislature:

Current Composition: 18D, 11R, 1 I.

Projected Composition: 18D, 12R (1 I to D and one D to R).

Safe Races:

1 (Roseburg)-Kruse (R).

2 (Central Point)-Atkinston (R).

5 (Lincoln City)-Verger (D).

18 (Tigard/SW Portland)-Burdick (D).

21 (SE Portland)-Rosenbaum (D).

22 (Portland)-Carter (D).

23 (NE Portland)-Dingfelder (D), this is technically a net pickup of 1, as Avel Gordly is an I.

25 (Gresham)-Monnes Anderson (D).

28 (Klamath Falls)-Whitsett (R).

29 (Pendleton)-Nelson (R).

30 (Ontario)-Ferriolli (R).

The following districts are competitive, or at least potentially competitive.

9 (Stayton)

Candidates: Fred Girod (R-int) vs. Bob McDonald (D).

Registration: R+4.5k.

Summary: The fact that this race is even competitive ought to really scare the Rs.  Girod still has the edge though.

Outlook: Leans to Likely Girod.

12 (McMinnville)

Candidates: Brian Boquist (R) vs. Kevin Nortness (D).

Registration: R+2.5k

Summary: The Rs had to scramble to get Boquist to run for this fairly safe seat.  This district is certainly changing but I don’t know if it is changing fast enough or if Nortness is a good enough candidate to replace the well-known Boquist.

Outlook: Leans to Likely Boquist.

14 (West Slope/Beaverton-My district!)

Candidates: Mark Hass (D-int) vs. Lisa Michaels (R).

Registration: D+10k.

Summary: In 2000 this seat was the site of the most expensive legislative campaign in OR history to that point as Ryan Deckert (D) unseated Eileen Qutub (R).  My how things change as the popular Hass looks ready to cruise here.

Outlook: Likely Hass.

27 (Bend)

Candidates: Marien Lundgren (D) vs. Chris Telfer (R).

Registration: R+3.5k

Summary: This is Ben Westlund’s seat and it would be a huge accomplishment to hold it (he won it twice running as a Republican).  That being said, I think its far more possible that a hold could occur now given the blue trend of Deschutes County, the center of this district.

Outlook: Leans Telfer.

Oregon House:

Current Composition: 31 D, 29 R.

Projected Composition: 32 D, 21 R, 7 Tossups (all Rs) and it could be a lot worse for the Rs.

The following seats are rated either safe or likely:

1 (Gold Beach)-Krieger (R).

2 (Myrtle Creek)-Freeman (R).

3 (Grants Pass)-Maurer (R).

4 (Central Point)-Richardson (R).

5 (Ashland)-Buckley (D).

8 (Eugene)-Holvey (D).

10 (Newport)-Cowan (D)-She won this seat by all of 750 votes two years ago and the Rs couldn’t find an opponent for her.

11 (Eugene)-Barnhart (D).

12 (Springfield)-Beyer (D).

13 (Eugene)-Nathanson (D).

14 (Eugene)-Edwards (D).

16 (Corvallis)-Gelser (D).

21 (Salem)-Clem (D).

25 (Keizer)-Thatcher (R).

27 (West Slope, my district!)-Read (D).

28 (Beaverton)-Barker (D).

31 (Clatskanie)-Witt (D).

32 (Cannon Beach)-Boone (D).

33 (Portland)-Greenlick (D).

34 (Beaverton)-Harker (D).

36 (Portland)-Nolan (D).

40 (Oregon City)-Hunt (D).

41 (Milwaukie)-Tomei (D).

42 (Portland)-Koppel-Bailey (D).

43 (Portland)-Shields (D).

44 (Portland)-Kotek (D).

45 (Portland)-Dembrow (D).

46 (Portland)-Cannon (D).

47 (Portland)-J. Smith (D).

48 (Happy Valley)-Schaufler (D).

53 (Sunriver)-Whisnant (R).

55 (Medford)-Gilliam (R).

56 (Klamath Falls)-Garrard (R).

57 (Heppner)-G. Smith (R).

58 (Pendleton)-Jenson (R).

60 (Ontario)-Benz (R).

The following seats are competitive:

6 (Medford)

Candidates: Sal Esquivel (R-inc.) vs. Lynn Howe (D).

Registration: R+3.5k

Summary: No one believed me two years ago when I said this seat would be competitive, and then Esquivel barely eked out a win.  My guess is that he won’t be caught napping this time, though.

Outlook: Leans Esquivel.

7 (Roseburg)

Candidates: Bruce Hanna (R-inc) vs. Donald Nordin (D).

Registration: R+1.6k

Summary: This would be my shocker of the year if an upset happened.  This district, which has been solidly red for decades, or so it seems, has seen a huge drop in the Republican registration edge.  Hanna is also not the greatest politician in the world to begin with but still has an edge here.

Outlook: Leans Hanna.

9 (Coos Bay)

Candidates: Arnie Roblan (D-inc.) vs. Al Pearn (R).

Registration: D+3k

Summary: This 2006 rematch should not be any different than the last one.  Roblan has a good read on this district and should win his easiest battle yet.  

Outlook: Leans Roblan.

15 (Albany)

Candidates: Andy Olson (R-inc.) vs. Dick Olsen (D).

Registration: D and R even

Summary: This district was not on anyone’s list but mine two years ago as potentially competitive.  Now with an even registration mix, a chance for an upset is there.  Olson, a former State Policeman, has the edge at this point though.

Outlook: Leans Olson.

17 (Scio)

Candidates: Sherrie Sprenger (R-int.) vs. Dale Thackaberry (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: Following a bloody and divisive R primary, Thackaberry has a real chance to pull an upset.  Add to that the fact that Sprenger has never won a general election here.  Still, this is definitely a district with an R tilt, so it’ll be an uphill battle.

Outlook: Leans Sprenger.

18 (Silverton)

Candidates: Vic Gilliam (R-int.) vs. Jim Gilbert (D).

Registration: R+2.5k

Summary: Jim Gilbert is back for another attempt at an upset here.  This is clearly his best chance yet but it won’t be easy.

Outlook: Leans Gilliam.

19 (Salem)

Candidates: Kevin Cameron (R-inc.) vs. Hanten (HD) Day (D).

Registration: R+1k

Summary: This is a district that should be more competitive than it has in the past.  With a lack of need to defend their own seats, this may become a statewide target, which makes an upset possible.

Outlook: Leans Cameron.

20 (Independence/Monmouth)

Candidates: Vicki Berger (R-inc.) vs. Richard Riggs (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: Berger is one of the last remaining liberal Republicans that Oregon used to develop like crazy.  She’s in for fight for her life this time due much more to both the state of the Republican party and the slight D registration edge though.

Outlook: Tossup.

22 (Woodburn)

Candidates: Betty Komp (D-inc.) vs. Tom Chereck (R).

Registration: D+2k.

Summary: I have to put this as competitive because its Woodburn.  However, Komp has really done a great job in this district and should win pretty easily.  Interestingly, this district has the lowest number of registered voters in the state, likely due to the large number of undocumented workers living here.

Outlook: Leans Komp.

23 (Dallas)

Candidates: Jim Thompson (R) vs. Jason Brown (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: This open seat battle could be one for the books.  That being said, I have to give the edge to Thompson for now because it is an R-leaning district.

Outlook: Leans Thompson.

24 (McMinnville)

Candidates: Jim Wiedner (R) vs. Bernt Hansen (D).

Registration: D and R even.

Summary: This was the seat that Kossack Sal Peralta almost won in 2006.  If Hansen can run a good campaign, a win is definitely possible here.  I’m moving this one to a tossup.

Outlook: Tossup.

26 (Wilsonville)

Candidates: Matt Wingard (R) vs. Jessica Adamson (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: Sometimes the opportunities just fall into your lap.  In this case, it turns out that Wingard has been arrested for hitting his children before.  However, this is still an R district so Wingard has a slight edge.

Outlook: Leans Wingard.

29 (Hillsboro)

Candidates: Chuck Riley (D-inc.) vs. TBD (R) and Terry Rilling (R turned I).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: Rilling’s decision to run as an I likely will give Riley an easy win.  Not that he wouldn’t have won anyways.  Add to that the ruling by the SOS that former R candidate Jeff Duyck doesn’t actually live in this district and is therefore ineligible to run for it and this race is close to sliding off the competitive race board.

Outlook: Leans Riley.

30 (Hillsboro)

Candidates: David Edwards (D-inc.) vs. Andy Duyck (R).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: The Republicans are all excited that Duyck is going to be their candidate here.  The well-known Washington County Commissioner is a solid candidate but this is not the Hillsboro that existed ten or even five years ago.  It has taken a solid blue turn and add to that the fact that Edwards is battle tested and he should win.

Outlook: Leans Edwards.

35 (Tigard)

Candidates: Larry Galizio (D-inc.) vs. Tony Marino (R).

Registration: D+3k

Summary: Tony Marino’s story keeps getting weirder and weirder.  First it was his criminal record, then it was the revelation that he was an online ordained Priest and now the information that he runs an online diploma mill.  Add to that the fact that this district, which Galizio won by a scant 850 votes four years ago, is no longer really a tossup district and Larry should win easily here.  This race may slide off the competitive races board by the next update.

Outlook: Leans Galizio.

37 (West Linn)

Candidates: Scott Bruun (R-inc.) vs. Michele Eberle (D).

Registration: D and R even.

Summary: Bruun is a well-known figure in this district; his family has run a construction business for over 100 years in the area.  Still, this year he will have to fight hard to keep this swing district, which now has even registration.

Outlook: Tossup.

38 (Lake Oswego)

Candidates: Chris Garrett (D) vs. Steve Griffith (R).

Registration: D+6k

Summary: If Griffith were a D, which he practically is in many ways, this district would be his.  However, he is not.  Add to that this district’s substantial D edge and the fact that Griffith will not likely get the $ he needs to be competitive and Garrett should cruise.

Outlook: Leans Garrett.

39 (Canby)

Candidates: Bill Kennemer (R) vs. Tony Forsberg (D).

Registration: D+.5k

Summary: Kossack Mike Caudle almost pulled off a major upset here in 2006 against the then R-leader Wayne Scott. As an open seat race, this one is too close to call.

Outlook: Tossup.

49 (Gresham)

Candidates: John Nelsen (R) vs. Nick Kahl (D).

Registration: D+4k

Summary: Two years ago about the only major disappointment I had was Minnis winning this district.  With her out of the picture, this should be a D pickup, especially with the substantial D edge in this district.

Outlook: Leans Kahl.

50 (Fairview)

Candidates: John Lim (R-inc.) vs. Greg Matthews (D).

Registration: D+2.5k

Summary: How Lim keeps winning here is a mystery.  He should be in for the fight of his life this year with this district clearly trending blue.

Outlook: Tossup.

51 (Clackamas)

Candidates: Linda Flores (R-inc.) vs. Brent Barton (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: How I would love to get rid of the racist Flores.  Barton has as good a chance as anyone, although it is definitely an uphill battle, despite the small D registration edge.

Outlook: Leans Flores.

52 (Corbett)

Candidates: Matt Lindland (R) vs. Suzanne VanOrman (D).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: In case you’re wondering, yes Matt Lindland is indeed otherwise known as UFC fighter Matt “The Law” Lindland.  This is a dead tossup district this year and should be fun to watch.

Outlook: Tossup.

54 (Bend)

Candidates: Chuck Burley (R-inc.) vs. Judy Stiegler (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: This district has been trending blue over the past several years.  This could well be the year Stiegler, who barely lost to Burley in an open seat race here four years ago, breaks through and wins it.

Outlook: Tossup.

59 (The Dalles)

Candidates: John Huffman (R-int.) vs. Mike Ahern (D).

Registration: R+1k97

Summary: This was the district that shocked everyone in 2006 as it was almost a D pickup.  However, I think Huffman will not be caught unaware as a result, though an upset is possible.

Outlook: Leans Huffman.

Well that’s it, let me know what you think.

You may remember that Rasmussen poll from one month ago that momentarily had everyone in a tizzy when it showed Frank Lautenberg, in the immediate post-primary frenzy, leading Dick Zimmer by only 1 point, 45-44. Rasmussen’s back with another shot at it:

Rasmussen (7/7, likely voters) (6/9 in parentheses):

Frank Lautenberg (D-inc): 49 (45)

Dick Zimmer (R): 36 (44)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

This is very much in line with the June 26 Fairleigh Dickinson poll (Lautenberg 45, Zimmer 28) and the June 11 Quinnipiac poll (Lautenberg 47, Zimmer 38). So what happened on June 9? Well, outliers happen. Even if the best pollster in the world does everything absolutely right — gets a good sample, eliminates all bias from the instrument — 1 out of 20 times, it’s still going to be completely wrong, i.e. outside-the-margin-of-error wrong. That’s what the 95% confidence interval, a caveat buried in the fine print of every poll report, is all about. Happens to everyone, even Rasmussen.

First the bad news: there were high hopes that Rick Gallot, a prominent African-American state representative from Ruston, would challenge turncoat Rodney Alexander in LA-05. Yesterday, he said he won’t:

“After prayerful deliberation, I’ve decided not to seek the congressional seat at this time,” Gallot said. “However, I’m flattered that the (party) thought enough about me and the work I’ve been doing to approach me about running. I also appreciate the support I’ve had from so many people who expressed their support.”

So far, the only candidate challenging Alexander is fellow Republican Andrew Clack. I’d been hoping that between Gallot running and Don Cravins Jr. running in LA-07, that might undercut Michael Jackson’s contention that African-American candidates get the short end of the stick from the LA Democratic Party and dissuade him from running in LA-06 as an independent. Well, based on today’s news, that’s not working out either.

Now for the good news: a swarm of challengers has emerged to take on embattled (corrupt, indicted) “Dollar Bill” Jefferson in LA-02. The three-day ballot qualifying period kicked off yesterday; as was previously reported here, state Rep. (and “former Jefferson ally”) Cedric Richmond has been running since last month; so has Jefferson Parish Councilor Byron Lee.

Yesterday, former WDSU-TV anchor Helena Moreno kicked off her campaign, as did Kenya Smith, former political aide to mayor Ray Nagin. In addition, New Orleans City Councilor James Carter and former New Orleans City Councilor Troy Carter announced yesterday that they will qualify. The missing other Carter — state Rep. Karen Carter Peterson, who lost the 2006 runoff to Jefferson — apparently is not in the running this time.

Louisiana has eliminated its ‘jungle primary’ (where everyone ran against everyone, followed by a runoff for the top 2 candidates of any party if no one broke 50%) for federal office, so each party’s primary is Sept. 6, followed by each party’s runoff on Oct. 4. Dems compete against the GOP in the general on Nov. 4, although in the D+28 2nd, the primary runoff is the main event. (With at least 6 competitors, no one’s going to break 50%.)