Month: July 2008

Candidate filing is now almost complete and whilst we won’t do as well as 2006 we still have candidates in at least 420 districts.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

3 more House races have a Democratic candidate that has filed in the last three weeks:

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-07 – R+7,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

But two more races go back to being uncontested:

AL-01 – R+12, (Our candidate withdrew but it is my understanding that the party can nominate a replacement!)

VA-01 – R+9, (Our candidate has suspended his campaign. If he withdraws the party can nominate a replacement apparently.)

And two more races will not have a democratic candidate on the ballot in November:

LA-05 – R+10,

WI-05 – R+12,

So 420 races filled! This of course includes 236 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 184 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 184

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 0

Districts with rumoured candidates – 1

Districts without any candidates – 1

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 13

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-02 – R+13,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-25 – R+7,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-06 – R+8,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-18 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-03 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

ID-02 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-05 – R+20,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-01 – R+10,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-04 – R+7,

LA-07 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-10 – R+4,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-08 – R+11,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-03 – R+14,

MT-AL – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

NE-02 – R+9,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-01 – R+13,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

OK-05 – R+12,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-01 – R+10,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

TN-07 – R+12,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

UT-01 – R+26,

UT-03 – R+22,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-04 – R+5,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-07 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

None at this stage

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

VA-01 – R+9,

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

AL-01 – R+12,

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

AL-06 – R+25,

AR-03 – R+11,

CA-19 – R+10,

CA-22 – R+16,

KY-05 – R+8

LA-05 – R+10,

TX-01 – R+17,

TX-02 – R+12,

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-14 – R+14,

TX-21 – R+13,

WI-05 – R+12,

Finally due praise to those states where we have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennesee, Utah, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Thats 42 states with a full slate!

There are also 6 states where filing has closed where we do not have a full slate: Arkansas, California, Kentucky, Louisiana, Wisconsin and of course Texas.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-04, VA-06 and WI-06; 8 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! The other 2, TX-11 and AL-06, will again go uncontested by Team Blue in 2008.

With 13 uncontested Republicans we will not reach our great 2006 effort of 425 races filled but we will do really well nonetheless.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

Netroots Nation will be happening in just a few short days, and four members of the SSP crew will be there: Publisher DavidNYC, Southern Bureau Chief Trent Thompson, tech guru Ben, and myself. On Thursday morning, we’ll be chilling at the state level blogger caucus. If you’re at the convention, please drop by and say hello!

On another note, the filing deadline for federal candidates in Louisiana passed at 5pm today, and it looks like we’ve come up empty-handed in the 5th CD, where the DCCC was trying up until the wire to score a candidate to take on Rodney Alexander. Well, you can’t win ’em all.

And while state Rep. Michael Jackson moonwalked himself into the 6th CD race as an independent, rumored spoiler candidate Lydia Jackson, a Democratic state senator from Shreveport, decided not to file for the open seat race in the 4th CD — as an independent or otherwise.

While we took some bad news that puts us on the defensive in the LA-06, we have some good news today that keeps us on offense in the LA-04. A list of qualifying candidates compliled by ryan at Daily Kingfish indicates that State Senator Lydia Jackson did not file to rund for Congress in the LA-04 as a Democrat or Independent.

LA-04

Willie Banks, Democrat

Paul Carmouche, Democrat

Artis “Doc” Cash, Democrat

John Milkovich, Democrat

John Fleming, Republican

Chris Gorman, Republican

Jeff Thompson, Republican

Chester T. “Catfish” Kelley, No Party

Gerard J. Bowen, Jr., Other

So we’ll see one Democrat and one GOPer on the November ballot in the 4th along with Mr. Kelley and Mr. Bowen.

Ms. Jackson is apparently the team player that Mr. Jackson is not. Her decision keeps Paul Carmouche in the driver’s seat for the Democratic nomination and and will allow him to focus his firepower against the Republicans. It may also keep some pressure off Don Cazayoux as he tries to defend his seat.

NH-Sen:

     Jeanne Shaheen (D): >$1.6M raised

     John Sununu (R-inc): >$5M CoH

NH-02:

     Paul Hodes (D-inc): >$250K raised; $980K CoH

TX-07:

     John Culberson (R-inc): $390K raised; $550K CoH

     Michael Skelly (D): $412K raised + $200K personal donation; >$1M CoH

NC-Sen:

     Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): $1.7M raised; $2.7M CoH

Dole’s cash-on-hand has actually decreased since her pre-primary filing in mid-April, when she had $3.2M in the bank. A couple of statewide ads later, and now she’s down to $2.7M. Democrat Kay Hagan has $1.2M in the bank, so the financial edge here is not that fearsome.

NJ-03:

     Chris Myers (R): $249K raised; $155K CoH

Compared to Adler’s stellar pace, this is just not impressive at all.

PA-18:

     Steve O’Donnell (D): $43K raised; $114K CoH

SC-01:

     Henry Brown, Jr. (R-inc): $234K raised; $1.34M CoH

NC-11:

     Carl Mumpower (R): $22K raised; $906.90 CoH

2Q Fundraising Results Thread | …Stood Still | How I Learned To Stop Worrying… | I Know What You Raised… | …vs. the Saucermen From Mars | Attack of the 50’… | …Glorious 2Q Reports of Raising | The Incredibly Strange Creatures…

I may be getting way ahead of myself here. This kind of thing may be more appropriate when we actually have vice-presidential nominees. But if there’s one thing we like to do in the blogosphere, it’s speculate. So, with that, here are the questions for you guys to argue over this weekend: who’s going to be the next vice-president, and (more importantly, from SSP’s perspective) who gets to take over the vacancy left behind by the new VP?

This was prompted in large part by Chris Dodd‘s admission that he’s being vetted for VP, followed by a lot of people’s subsequent realization that “Hey, wait a minute… Connecticut has a Republican governor, who would appoint his replacement…” Trouble is, who does Jodi Rell appoint? Does she bow to the state’s Democratic lean and appoint a Democrat? Does she appoint Chris Shays (and, if he even wins in 2008, thus open up his seat for a likely Dem win in a special election)? Does she appoint one of the other loser ex-Reps (like Nancy Johnson… assuming she remembered to maintain a Connecticut domicile)? Does she appoint herself, knowing that she’s the only popular Republican in the state and thus the best shot for holding onto the seat beyond 2010?

That’s only one big example of the can of worms that each potential VP scenario creates. Let’s look at some more scenarios (possible VPs are listed in terms of likelihood, according to today’s InTrade “bid” numbers, which are the middle column); in each case, I’ve listed who the replacement (or replacement picker) will be. Let’s start with the Democrats:

Hillary Clinton	15.4	Appointment by David Paterson (D)
Kathleen Sebelius	14.0	Lt. Gov. Mark Parkinson (D)
Evan Bayh	8.0	Appointment by ??? (lean R)
Jack Reed	7.9	Appointment by Don Carcieri (R)
Tim Kaine	7.8	Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)
Chuck Hagel	7.2	No vacancy created
Joe Biden	7.0	Appointment by ??? (safe D)
Claire McCaskill	6.5	Appointment by ??? (lean D)
Bill Richardson	6.5	Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D)
Ed Rendell	5.0	Lt. Gov. Catherine Baker Knoll (D)

The biggest question mark here is probably Bayh, as his replacement would be appointed by either Mitch Daniels or Jill Long Thompson, depending on how IN-Gov shakes out. One more reason not to make him the VP, as far as I’m concerned, somewhat further down the list from a) he’s too conservative and b) he’s soul-paralyzingly boring.

We’ve already tackled the replacing-Clinton question in a diary last year, although things may have changed a bit since then. (The most common prediction: that Eliot Spitzer would appoint David Paterson to be the next Senator from NY. Funny how things work out sometimes.)

And now the GOP:

Willard “Mitt” Romney	25.3	No vacancy created
Tim Pawlenty	14.0	Lt. Gov. Carol Molnau (R)
Sarah Palin	12.0	Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell (R)
Mike Huckabee	11.1	No vacancy created
Charlie Crist	8.1	Lt. Gov. Jeff Kottkamp (R)
Carly Fiorina	7.0	No vacancy created
Rob Portman	7.0	No vacancy created
Eric Cantor	6.0	Special election
Mark Sanford	6.0	Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer (R)
John Thune	6.0	Appointment by Mike Rounds (R)

The real weirdness here is in Alaska. Suppose Sarah Palin becomes the new VP… but then also suppose that Sean Parnell becomes the new Representative in AK-AL. I can’t confirm that the Senate President is third in line (the state constitution doesn’t go into that), but if that’s the case, then Lyda Green (R) is the current Senate President… although I don’t know if she’ll be the President next session, as her status as President depends on crossover votes from the Democrats in the Senate. [Update from the comments: Apparently Attorney General Talis Colberg is third in line.]

Well, I’ll turn it over to the SSP readers: which of these scenarios seems likely, and in the Senate scenarios, whom do you see getting picked to fill the vacancy?  

This just in: State Rep. Michael Jackson (D-Baton Rouge) has filed to run against Democrat Don Cazayoux as an independent.

For more thoughts on what this means for Cazayoux, see our discussion from yesterday.

In light of this development, SSP has shifted its rating of this race from “Leans Democratic” to Tossup.

How timely. Just as we were discussing the cost of media buys for all of our House targets this year, the Associated Press has got its hands on a list of 31 races where the DCCC has reserved $35 million worth of advertising time set to begin airing in September and October. Let’s comb through the report and try to identify all the targets:

AK-AL (Young): $586K

AZ-01 (OPEN): $1.7M

AZ-05 (Mitchell): $1.7M

CO-04 (Musgrave): $667K

CT-04 (Shays): $697K

FL-16 (Mahoney): $1.5M

FL-24 (Feeney): $1M

IN-09 (Hill): $1.6M

KS-02 (Boyda): $1.2M

KY-03 (Yarmuth): $659K

LA-06 (Cazayoux): $723K

MI-07 (Walberg): $1.5M

MI-09 (Knollenberg): $1.1M

MN-03 (OPEN): $1.4M

MO-09 (OPEN): $941K

NC-08 (Hayes): $1.6M

NH-01 (Shea-Porter) $564K

NJ-07 (OPEN): $1.8M

NM-01 (OPEN): $1.3M

NM-02 (OPEN): $1.2M

NV-03 (Porter): $916K

NY-13 (OPEN): $1.3M

OH-01 (Chabot): $928K

OH-15 (OPEN): $1.2M

OH-16 (OPEN): $1.3M

OR-05 (OPEN): $1.2M

PA-04 (Altmire): $554K

TX-22 (Lampson): $1.1M

TX-23 (Rodriguez): $707K

VA-11 (OPEN): $1.3M

WI-08 (Kagen): $475K

If you do the math, though, that’s only 29 races. The report also mentions the DCCC booking time for open seat contests in New Jersey and New York, but since there are five of those contests between these two states (NJ-03, NJ-07, NY-13, NY-25, NY-26), we can’t pinpoint the races conclusively. However, since an earlier report identified NY-13 as one of four districts where the DCCC has reserved air time, it’s probably safe to assume that this district is among the 31.

A few caveats: The DCCC is reserving this time well in advance in order to get discounts on ad time, but just because they’ve booked the time, it doesn’t mean that they’ll use it. The committee is free to revise its plans before September.

UPDATE: Reid Wilson has the full list (which includes NJ-07 and NY-13 as the missing links), as well has the size of the buys for each district. I’ve updated our list above accordingly. He also notes that the time booked for the DCCC in NJ-07 and NY-13 are targeted mostly toward cable television.

ACTION ALERT: Attacking Me for Schuring’s Gas Tax

Dear Friends,

You may have heard of “Freedom’s Watch” – they’re a group of former Bush administration officials who plan to spend billions of dollars in 2008 to send more George W. Bush-style Republicans to Washington.

They’re also confused. They’ve just started sending phone messages to local voters attacking me for the Ohio state gas tax that my opponent, Kirk Schuring, voted to increase in 2003. I voted against it.

Schuring voted for Governor Taft’s transportation bill, which imposed $580 million in new taxes on Ohio families. Because of him, families in our state will pay more than a quarter of a billion dollars in extra gas taxes this year alone.

Why is Freedom’s Watch telling people to call me about a gas tax I opposed? Shouldn’t they be asking voters to call Kirk Schuring instead? And why are big-money Washington groups dumping cookie-cutter attacks on our district while Schuring himself hasn’t said a word about his energy plans?

Clearly, Freedom’s Watch doesn’t actually care about your high fuel costs. They’re just coming in to help out one of George Bush’s biggest backers in Ohio – but they didn’t do their homework, and now this stunt will backfire. I applaud the Canton Repository for repudiating third party attacks like this one. And I thank Freedom’s Watch for the opportunity they’ve provided to talk with constituents about my opposition to the gas tax increase. Now its time for Senator Schuring to explain his vote to raise the gas tax.

Gas tax gimmicks won’t ease our pain at the pump. I’ve been talking about serious, substantive energy solutions for weeks. All we’ve heard from Kirk Schuring is silence – while Washington hired guns do his negative campaigning for him.

It’s time for Kirk Schuring to speak for himself. It’s time for him to answer to voters directly about his support for higher gas taxes.

Today, I am challenging Kirk Schuring to stop hiding behind third parties and agree to a public debate with me about our energy future – one on one, in a neutral forum, before the voters of our community.

I need your help to make sure he hears the challenge. Here’s what you can do:

If you get a phone message from Freedom’s Watch, record it or save it on your answering machine. Then give us a call at 330-754-0534.

Write a letter to your local paper. Set the record straight about Schuring’s gas tax hike, and extend your own challenge to Schuring to publicly debate me on energy issues.

Call Kirk Schuring and ask him why he voted to raise your gas taxes: 330-455-9199.

Sincerely yours,

John Boccieri

We had high drama in OH-16 yesterday…

Why Does Kirk Schuring Refuse to Debate?

Yesterday, after I received the Action Alert from John Boccieri, I took it upon myself to pick up the telephone and try to get a response from the Schuring camp in regards to a debate on the issues. I have to admit I was surprised that actually got to talk to a human, considering the near abscence of any presence of Schuring in the public eye. Oh, yeah, he did ride in a car with the retiring Regula in the Wooster Parade and his “joke moment” in Ashland County.

I introduced myself , by name, and openly identified myself as Internet OutReach Director, John Boccieri for U.S. Congress.

Me: I’m calling to request that Kirk Schuring join a public debate, in a neutral forum, against Senator John Boccieri about rising gas prices, energy plans, and visions.

(pause)

Staff: I don’t know the Senator’s plans on that.

Me: Well, if he decides to accept, you have him give us a

call at (330)754-0534.

Staff: I’ll pass your message on.

Me: Thanks for your time.

Staff: Thank you for calling.

Based on passed perfomance, we’ll see what that’s worth…

Bryan Collinsworth, Boccieri’s communications director, wrote me to say that they Boccieri’s campaign staff delivered the above debate challenge to Schuring’s campaign manager morning, and for doing so Schuring’s campaign has issued a press release calling for Boccieri’s staffers to be fired.

Collinsworth said that he and Campaign Manager, Ian Walton, went to the address listed on Schuring’s Web site, and found they had to go to the Higbee Road headquarters to find Schuring’s people.

“We drove over to the office, and asked where the Schuring campaign office was and walked in and handed the letter to them. If they don’t want people entering their office, perhaps they should lock the doors. But I’m not sure that’s a very effective campaign strategy either.”

“I don’t see what the violation is here, except that they’re trying to dodge the broader issue that we’re trying to talk about. We went there, delivered the challenge letter. We asked them for a debate. We said, ‘When can you schedule this?’ And we got no firm answer on that. So this is clearly just another way of dodging that question, in my view.”

Collinsworth admits to taking a photo of the delivery.

The Schuring Camp issued a release of their own, charging the Boccieri Staffers “barged into the Schuring Headquarters and started snapping pictures.” What’s to hide Kirk?

Schuring said:

“I’m very disappointed that the Boccieri Campaign has stooped to this level of desperation. This was a tactic designed to intimidate and it’s not going to work, nor is it acceptable here in the 16th Congressional District. Perhaps this is the way he has run his campaigns in Youngstown, but that style of campaigning won’t sit well with voters here. John, you should apologize to the voters to the 16th District and fire these staffers today.”

Sorry, Kirk, Boccieri lives in Alliance and his office is in Downtown Canton, not, out at Belden along with Ralph Regula’s. Does it hurt to be the 16th District’s version of McSame?

Still, Schuring chooses to remain silent on the issues hiding behind third party groups from Washington. His site says virtually nothing on energy and is yet to agree to debate The Major in a formal, substantive debate on the skyrocketing costs of fuel and energy. This whole thing sounds like Schuring suffers from a skewed parallax.

What does he have to hide?

He voted to INCREASE the gas tax while Boccieri voted against it.

Middle class families in our area continue to struggle and Schuring chooses to side with big oil(raised more than 20k from oil and gas executives).

This election is too important! Voters deserve to know where the candidates stand on this and other issues. Schuring should stop his political games and engage in a real dialogue about his vision and ideas for the direction of our country.

Call Kirk Schuring and ask him why he voted to raise your gas taxes: 330-455-9199.

Time for the thrilling conclusion to the Bang-for-the-Buck Index, begun yesterday with the Senate installment. Follow the link for full methodological nitty-gritty, but the main thing that you need to know is that this index shows which races are the cheapest media-wise (and thus where one netroots dollar gets stretched the furthest). This list covers all House races that Swing State Project projects as Dem pickup opportunities.

The middle column lists every media market that needs to be utilized in order to blanket the district, and the number next to each market is the number of thousands of TV households in that market. The more TV households, the more expensive the market. (When a market only grazes a small part of the district where there’s no major population center, I’ve deemed the market negligible, assuming that a smart media buyer wouldn’t use that market.) The number in the right column is the sum total of the thousands of TV households in all markets in the district, which provides a relative number that indicates how expensive a media campaign in that district is.

As you’ll see, there’s a huge amount of variation, depending on the number of ‘wasted eyeballs.’ The wasted eyeballs problem becomes huge in suburban districts in major metropolitan districts, where you may be paying to advertise to people in the adjacent 10 or 20 districts as well.

Let’s start with the cheap races:

District	Markets	Score
WY-AL	Cheyenne (54) Casper (52) Denver (1,415 *) Salt Lake City (811 *) Rapid City (91 *) Billings (103 *) Idaho Falls (115 *)	106 *
AK-AL	Anchorage (141) Fairbanks (32) Juneau (24)	197
LA-05	Monroe (174) Alexandria (93) Lake Charles (negligible) Lafayette (negligible)	267
LA-07	Lafayette (220) Lake Charles (94)	314
NE-02	Omaha (400)	400
AL-02	Montgomery (245) Columbus GA (205) Dothan (98)	548
SC-01	Charleston SC (284) Myrtle Beach (266)	550
IA-04	Des Moines (414) Rochester MN (143) Cedar Rapids (negligible) Sioux City (negligible)	557
LA-04	Shreveport (382) Alexandria (93) Lake Charles (94)	569
WV-02	Charleston WV (478) Clarksburg (109) Washington DC (2,253 *)	587 *
IN-03	South Bend (333) Fort Wayne (271)	604
ID-01	Boise (230) Spokane (390)	620
NV-03	Las Vegas (651)	651
NM-01	Albuquerque (654)	654
VA-02	Norfolk (705)	705
IL-18	Peoria (242) Champaign (378) Quincy (104) Davenport (negligible)	724
NY-25	Rochester (385) Syracuse (398)	783
OH-01	Cincinnati (880)	880
OH-02	Cincinnati (880) Columbus OH (negligible) Charleston WV (negligible)	880
OH-15	Columbus OH (891)	891
NV-02	Las Vegas (651) Reno (255) Salt Lake City (811 *)	906 *
SC-02	Columbia SC (373) Augusta (246) Savannah (296)	915
NM-02	Albuquerque (654) El Paso (291) Odessa (negligible)	945
KS-04	Wichita (447) Tulsa (510)	957

The more expensive races are over the flip…

District	Markets	Score
KY-02	Louisville (643) Evansville (289) Bowling Green (75)	1,007
VA-05	Richmond (511) Roanoke (440) Charlottesville (70) Raleigh (negligible)	1,021
CA-50	San Diego (1,026)	1,026
NY-26	Buffalo (644) Rochester (385)	1,029
IN-04	Indianapolis (1,054) Lafayette IN (63)	1,117
AL-03	Birmingham (717) Montgomery (245) Columbus GA (205) Atlanta (negligible)	1,167
MO-06	Kansas City (904) St. Joseph (46) Columbia MO (168) Ottumwa (51) Omaha (negligible)	1,169
PA-18	Pittsburgh (1,170)	1,170
MD-01	Baltimore (1,089) Salisbury (148)	1,237
FL-08	Orlando (1,346)	1,346
FL-24	Orlando (1,346)	1,346
OH-07	Columbus OH (891) Dayton (514)	1,405
FL-18	Miami (1,523)	1,523
FL-21	Miami (1,523)	1,523
NY-29	Buffalo (644) Rochester NY (385) Syracuse (398) Elmira (97)	1,524
OH-16	Cleveland (1,542)	1,542
MO-09	St. Louis (1,222) Columbia MO (168) Quincy (104) Ottumwa (51)	1,545
PA-03	Pittsburgh (1,170) Erie (159) Youngstown (277)	1,606
MN-02	Minneapolis (1,653)	1,653
MN-03	Minneapolis (1,653)	1,653
MN-06	Minneapolis (1,653)	1,653
AZ-01	Phoenix (1,660) Albuquerque (negligible)	1,660
AZ-03	Phoenix (1,660)	1,660
WA-08	Seattle (1,702)	1,702
FL-09	Tampa (1,710)	1,710
FL-10	Tampa (1,710)	1,710
CO-04	Denver (1,415) Colorado Spgs. (315)	1,730
CA-04	Sacramento (1,346) Chico (191) Reno (255)	1,792
OH-14	Cleveland (1,542) Youngstown (277)	1,819
NC-10	Charlotte (1,020) Greenville SC (815)	1,835
MI-09	Detroit (1,936)	1,936
TX-07	Houston (1,939)	1,939
FL-25	Miami (1,523) Ft. Myers (462)	1,985
FL-15	Orlando (1,346) W. Palm Beach (752)	2,098
FL-13	Tampa (1,710) Ft. Myers (462)	2,172
VA-10	Washington DC (2,253)	2,253
VA-11	Washington DC (2,253)	2,253
TX-10	Houston (1,939) Austin (589)	2,528
NC-08	Charlotte (1,020) Greensboro (652) Raleigh (985) Myrtle Beach (266)	2,923
PA-06	Philadelphia (2,926)	2,926
PA-15	Philadelphia (2,926)	2,926
MI-07	Detroit (1,936) Toledo (427) Lansing (257) Grand Rapids (732)	3,352
IL-06	Chicago (3,431)	3,431
IL-10	Chicago (3,431)	3,431
IL-13	Chicago (3,431)	3,431
PA-05	Pittsburgh (1,170) Buffalo (644) Harrisburg (707) Wilkes-Barre (589) Erie (159) Elmira (97) Johnstown (295)	3,661
IL-11	Chicago (3,431) Peoria (242) Davenport (308)	3,981
CA-26	Los Angeles (5,536)	5,536
CA-46	Los Angeles (5,536)	5,536
CA-45	Los Angeles (5,536) Palm Springs (143)	5,679
CT-04	New York (7,380) Hartford (negligible)	7,380
NY-13	New York (7,380)	7,380
NJ-05	New York (7,380)	7,380
NJ-07	New York (7,380)	7,380
NJ-03	New York (7,380) Philadelphia (2,926)	10,306
NJ-04	New York (7,380) Philadelphia (2,926)	10,306

You may have noticed a few asterisked races; I’ll explain each one. WV-02 is partially covered by the Washington media market, which reaches into the tip of the panhandle (which is rapidly turning into DC exurbs). Advertising in DC is prohibitively expensive, so I’ve excluded it even though the panhandle is a populous part of the district. Like Manchester, New Hampshire (which we talked about yesteray), however, this is an unusual situation where there’s a single station nearby that’s considered to operate within the larger DC market, in this case in Hagerstown, Maryland. It’s likely that most of the WV-02 advertising targeting the panhandle would go through this one station.

NV-02 is partly covered by the Salt Lake City market (the easternmost three counties). This area contains fast-growing Elko, so it can’t be written off entirely, but again, it’s unlikely that any media strategy here would include SLC.

And finally, Wyoming is a particularly perplexing case. Using just the in-state markets in Cheyenne and Casper, it’s the cheapest district anywhere. However, these two markets cover only about 50% of the state’s population; the rest is out-of-state markets like Denver and SLC, so a comprehensive broadcast-TV strategy would shoot Wyoming into very expensive district territory. Most likely, the outlying portions of Wyoming are targeted purely through direct mail, AM radio, possibly cable systems, and as Gary Trauner adeptly showed last time, face-to-face contact.

You may have also noticed a number of predominantly rural districts that should theoretically be cheap but in fact are very expensive; MI-07 and NC-08 are key examples, each of which are kind of located between major cities and wind up biting a corner out of a bunch of different markets. Poor PA-05 is the perhaps the worst example; it doesn’t even have any TV stations in its boundaries, but it takes bites out of about 8 surrounding markets. Districts like these, again, are probably dealt with creatively, with buys in some TV markets and more focus on cable and other media.

The focus on cable, direct mail, and the like also probably becomes more important in the most expensive urban markets (New Jersey, anyone?) where even the best-financed House candidate isn’t going to be able to go on the air much. As I said yesterday, much of this is conjecture (and I certainly welcome comment from anyone with more experience with campaigning in any of these districts, or media buying in general); it’s just a rough guide to help netroots donors find races where their dollars might be used particularly efficiently.

The filing deadline for candidates running to replace retiring Rep. Vito Fossella passes tonight at midnight, and the Staten Island Advance reports that the GOP primary could shape up to be a five-ring fracas:

Borough Republicans this evening filed around 2,000 signatures with the city Board of Elections (BOE) that had been gathered for party designee Frank Powers, who died suddenly last month.

But contrary to what GOP chairman John Friscia had said earlier this week, the party did not name a candidate to replace Powers today.

In addition, former GOP South Shore Assemblyman Robert Straniere said he’d filed about 2,500 signatures with the BOE, and Dr. Jamshad Wyne, the borough Republican finance chairman, filed around 3,000 signatures for the race as well.

GOP signatures also were filed on behalf of Independence Party pick Carmine Morano, and were expected to be filed for Brooklyn Conservative Party member Paul Atanasio.

As non-party members, both men would need written permission from the GOP, known as a Wilson-Pakula authorization, in order to get in the primary.

Staten Island Republicans still haven’t designated their preference in the primary, and they can still use Powers’ signatures to slot in a replacement candidate.

A five-way primary would be especially delicious, as the incentive would be high for each candidate to try to challenge the others’ signatures. Candidates must file general objections to petition signatures no later than midnight on Monday, which will open the door to specific objections that can be filed with the state Board of Elections before midnight on July 21.

Democrats Mike McMahon and Steve Harrison also both filed their petitions. While Staten Island Conservatives gathered enough signatures to place McMahon’s name on their party’s primary ballot, Brooklyn Conservatives blocked the move and the party will back Atanasio. However, it looks like Island Conservatives, including Borough President James Molinaro, are still supporting McMahon.

Let the games begin.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Democratic.