Month: July 2008

TX-Sen:

     Rick Noriega (D): $930K raised

I’m sorry to say it, but this is yet another disappointing quarter for Noriega.

NY-13:

     Mike McMahon (D): ~$500K raised (in one month)

     Steve Harrison (D): ~$150K raised

GA-06:

     Bill Jones (D): $225K raised; $168K CoH (1/1-6/25)

     Tom Price (R-inc): $293K raised; $756K CoH (4/1-6/25)

GA-08:

     Jim Marshall (D-inc): $165K raised; $1.34M CoH (4/1-6/25)

     Rick Goddard (R): $162K raised; $459K CoH (4/1-6/25)

GA-10:

     Barry Fleming (R): $145K raised; $344K CoH (4/1-6/25)

     Paul Broun (R-inc): $289K raised; $202K CoH (4/1-6/25)

GA-12:

     John Barrow (D-inc): $263K raised; $1.02M CoH (4/1-6/25)

     John Stone (R): $67K raised; $33K CoH (4/1-6/25)

Nothing from Regina Thomas yet, but she has another 15 minutes left to file.

AL-02:

     Harri Anne Smith (R): $169K raised; $100K CoH (5/15-6/25)

     Jay Love (R): $151K raised; $164K CoH (5/15-6/25)

AL-05:

     Wayne Parker (R): $115K raised; $46K CoH (5/15-6/25)

     Cheryl Baswell Guthrie (R): $149K raised; $5K CoH (5/15-6/25)

UPDATE:

GA-13:

     Deborah “The Defrauder” Honeycutt (R-inc): $976K raised; $845K spent; $337K CoH

Previous posts:

2Q Fundraising Results Thread | …Stood Still

SSP will be taking a bit of a break this holiday weekend. We may still post a few updates if there any interesting developments in the news or if we see another trickle of 2Q numbers, but for the most part, posting will be very light.

How are you spending your Independence Day? I’ll be following this motto:

Celebrate the independence of your nation by blowing up a small part of it.

UPDATE: I forgot to mention that pre-primary fundraising reports in Georgia and run-off reports in AL-02 and AL-05 are due at midnight tonight. We’ll round them up and give you the numbers as soon as they’re all in — so stay tuned for that. Reports here.

In 2006, ineffective Bush Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito won re-election with 57 percent of the vote in a year that saw Democrats take over the House nationally.  

George Bush won in a landslide in the district. You’d think there couldn’t be a more “Solid Republican” seat.

Today Cook Political Report (subscription required) has upgraded the race in Barth’s direction once again. As I’ve understood it, the Cook Political Report only moves a race up one notch at a time. WV-02 has gone from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.”

That doesn’t mean Barth doesn’t have a lot of ground to make up and a lot of work to do. With her Big Oil fat cats, coal barons, Wall Street, mortgage lenders and banks helping to keep her in office as a reliable rubberstamp for their interests, Capito has three times the money in the bank.

But it’s no wonder Republicans are having to spend money from [a fund to assist challengers to help try to save Capito.

Barth is taking Capito to the mats and Capito’s spokesman already is crying about it.

The more people learn of Capito’s record and not the faux moderate image the media has let her create, the less they like her. By contrast, the more people who meet Barth, the more they like her.

Capito can’t. Anne can. It’s that simple.

Here’s the 27 races upgraded in our direction

AL-03    Mike Rogers    Solid Republican to Likely Republican

CA-46    Dana Rohrabacher    Solid Republican to Likely Republican

FL-08    Ric Keller    Likely Republican to Lean Republican

FL-09    Gus Bilirakis    Solid Republican to Likely Republican

FL-18    Ileana Ros-Lehtinen    Solid Republican to Likely Republican

FL-21    Lincoln Diaz-Balart    Likely Republican to Lean Republican

ID-01    Bill Sali    Solid Republican to Likely Republican

IN-03    Mark Souder    Solid Republican to Likely Republican

IA-04    Tom Latham    Solid Republican to Likely Republican

KY-02    OPEN (Lewis)    Solid Republican to Likely Republican

MN-02    John Kline    Solid Republican to Likely Republican

NE-02    Lee Terry    Solid Republican to Likely Republican

NV-02    Dean Heller    Solid Republican to Likely Republican

NJ-05    Scott Garrett    Solid Republican to Likely Republican

NY-13    OPEN (Fossella)    Toss Up to Lean Democratic

NY-25    OPEN (Walsh)    Toss Up to Lean Democratic

NC-10    Patrick McHenry    Solid Republican to Likely Republican

OH-07    OPEN (Hobson)    Solid Republican to Likely Republican

PA-03    Phil English    Likely Republican to Lean Republican

PA-05    OPEN (Peterson)    Solid Republican to Likely Republican

PA-11    Paul Kanjorksi    Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic

PA-15    Charlie Dent    Solid Republican to Likely Republican

TX-07    John Culberson    Solid Republican to Likely Republican

TX-10    Michael McCaul    Solid Republican to Likely Republican

VA-05    Virgil Goode    Solid Republican to Likely Republican

VA-10    Frank Wolf    Solid Republican to Likely Republican

WV-02    Shelley Moore Capito    Likely Republican to Lean Republican

WY-AL    OPEN (Cubin)    Solid Republican to Likely Republican

Another month, another round of elections. Let’s check in with all the races worth watching.

July 15:

• AL-02: A runoff will be held here for the GOP nomination for the seat of retiring Rep. Terry Everett. Jay Love, a state representative from the Montgomery area, lead Dothan-based state Sen. Harri Anne Smith by a 35%-22% margin in the first round of voting. Republicans in DC have closed ranks around Love, but Smith is not going down without a fight, and has released a series of blistering attack ads against Love over tax hikes and — in a possible preview of Democratic attacks to come — using the words of Gov. Bob Riley to hit Love for being tied to “Big Oil”. GOP division? I’m loving it.

  A source close to the campaign of Democrat Bobby Bright says that some in the campaign believe that Smith would be the more formidable opponent, but I suspect that Love’s strength in suburban Montgomery might give him the extra edge he would need in a general election match-up. We’ll see.

• AL-05: The GOP fell just shy of avoiding a runoff for the nomination to contest the seat of retiring Democrat Bud Cramer, with insurance executive and ’94/’96 candidate Wayne Parker scoring 49% to businesswoman Cheryl Baswell Guthrie’s 19%. Baswell Guthrie’s campaign has quite clearly run out of steam, and I don’t expect that Parker will have any difficulty dispatching her in the runoff.
• GA-Sen: The Democratic primary to take on GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss is a bit of a mess. To run down the cast of characters, you’ve got: DeKalb Co. CEO Vernon Jones, a controversial and self-proclaimed Bush Democrat with the worst kind of personal baggage; Dale Cardwell, a former Atlanta broadcast journalist, pole-sitter, and all-around weirdo; businessman and scientist Rand Knight, who has impressed some on the stump but has not raised any significant cash; Josh Lanier, a former senatorial aide and Vietnam vet who is taking a hard-line stance against campaign fundraising; and former state Rep. Jim Martin, who ran an unsuccessful campaign for Lt. Governor in 2006 but is the only candidate in the race who has raised any significant cash.

  Jones would clearly be a disastrous choice for Democrats, and I think he’d hurt Democratic candidates both up and down the ballot if he somehow wins the nomination. Indeed, the most recent poll of the race shows that Jones is in the worst position of all the candidates in a head-to-head match-up with Chambliss. However, his name recognition is high and he’s the only African-American candidate in the crowded field, so chances are that he’ll at least make the run-off, which will be held on August 5th.

• GA-10: Another nutty GOP primary. Many Republicans have not abandoned their distrust of Rep. Paul Broun, who was elected in a run-off last summer over the much better-known state Sen. Jim Whitehead with the help of crossover votes from Democrats. Unsurprisingly, Broun has picked up a challenge from state Rep. Barry Fleming. Crisitunity explains:
  

  The inference that Broun isn’t a ‘real’ Republican because Democrats helped him beat the establishment candidate is laughable, as Broun has one of the most conservative records of all House members. But Broun has established himself as more of a libertarian-leaning maverick, so the local GOP would probably prefer to see a more housebroken representative. Democrat and Iraq War vet Bobby Saxon awaits the victor, although this is an R+13 district where the GOP has to be favored.

  Much like the Cannon-Chaffetz race in Utah, this is one pits an ultra-conservative against another “almost as” ultra-conservative.

• GA-12: For many in the netroots, this is the big event. Crisitunity frames the race as follows:
  

  This is the primary that has garnered the most netroots attention (if a bit belatedly). While this race turns primarily on the demographics of GA-12, there’s also an ideological component, as John Barrow is one of the most conservative Democrats in the House… and unlike the other most conservative House Dems, he’s in a D+2 seat and doesn’t have the excuse of a deep red district.

  State Senator Regina Thomas from Savannah is challenging Barrow from the left. Thomas is African-American and Barrow is white; this is significant in a district that’s 45% African-American and where at least two-thirds of the Democratic electorate is African-American. While that might seem to give Thomas an inherent advantage, most of the local political figures (and some national figures, including Obama) have endorsed Barrow, and Thomas’s money situation is a mystery (we’re still awaiting her first FEC report). Her main impediment is simply low name recognition, especially in Augusta, the other city at the other end of the district. Her strategy seems to be to focus on word of mouth via black churches to get the word out, which will be interesting to see if it works in the face of Barrow’s big bank account.

  Regardless of who wins the primary, this should be a likely hold this cycle, as the Dems face third-tier Republican opposition (either former congressional aide John Stone or former radio talk show host Ben Crystal). This district has been very competitive at the general election level since its creation, though; Barrow won by only 864 votes in 2006, although that’s largely because he was facing Max Burns, the previous GOP representative that Barrow unseated in 2004.

  We should find out Thomas’ pre-primary fundraising soon. If it turns out that most of her money raised is from Democrats.com, then I’d be concerned about her viability.

The top 10 are listed in alphabetical order by state:

1. Alabama 2nd – Republican Terry Everett has decided to retire.  The two Republican challengers come from different parts of the district.  Jay Love comes from suburban Montgomery and Harri Ann Smith comes from Dothan.  Republicans have hinted that they prefer Love over Smith and this may be for two reasons.  The Democratic nominee is Montgomery mayor Bright and he may be able to win over Republicans in suburban Montgomery.  Smith may struggle and only be able to keep her base in Dothan.  Jay Love on the other hand can keep his base and pick up the more conservative areas such as Dothan.  The second reason why they may prefer Love is because Smith has demonstrated that she can be erratic.  Her ads have concentrated mostly on illegal immigration and the cost of bread ($2 is what she says).  Anyone who has been through this area (I have) knows that it is very conservative, yet Smith as the Republican challenger would be an easier defeat than Love.  Let’s all hope that Smith prevails against Love.  Outlook: Toss Up (Smith wins)/Likely Rep (Love wins)

2. Colorado 2nd – Udall is running for Senate.  This is really a battle between Fitz-Gerald and Polis.  Whichever wins the primary is guaranteed to win come November.  Outlook: Safe Dem

3. Colorado 6th – To the relief of immigrants everywhere, Tancredo has decided to retire.  The primary features Sec. of State and Iraq War vet Coffman, the son of the state’s former Senator, and two state senators, one that worked in the White House under Reagan and the other which was also an Iraq War vet.  A four way primary may produce interesting results, yet many expect Coffman to prevail in the end.  Outlook: Safe Rep

4. Florida 16th – Mahoney can sit back and watch three Republicans beat eachother up, all three of which have personal funds to throw into the race.  The lateness of the primary, end of August, provides Mahoney with ample opportunity to race funds while the three Republicans continue to attack eachother.  The end result of the primary will indeed result in bruised egos.  Outlook: Toss Up

5. Kansas 2nd – Ryun is upset and wants to come back to Washington (he wasn’t considered a primary target by the DCCC in 2006, yet he lost).  Hurting his chances to prevail is a primary challenge by State Treasurer Jenkins.  The race can best be summarized as conservative vs. moderate.  Should Ryun prevail, then Boyda is more safe.  Should Jenkins prevail, then this race can become a little more interesting.  Outlook: Leans Dem

6. Louisiana 4th – McCrery is retiring.  Both the Republican and Democratic sides will feature primaries.  The Republican three-way primary however will be more interesting.  Fleming is a physician and Iraq War veteran.  Gorman is a trucking executive.  The Republican Party’s choice is Thompson, a former Chamber of Commerce President.  The Democratic nomination will be secured more easily by District Attorney Carmouche.  A Thompson vs. Carmouche race would be competitive, yet look at who’s endorsing Thompson (those that pushed Bush’s failed policies) and it’s easy to see that this red district could easily turn blue.  Outlook: Toss Up

7. Michigan 7th – Before Democrats can challenge Walberg they need to settle an open primary.  Renier came close to defeating Walberg last time, even though she had very little funding.  The closeness of the race may have been a result of those disenchanted with moderate Schwarz being defeated.  This time the DCCC has settled on State Senator Schauer who has demonstrated that he can raise funds.  The closeness of the race last time, fundraising advantage of Schauer, and the ultra-conservative leanings of Walberg will surely make this a competitive race.  It also doesn’t benefit Walberg to have McCain come to Michigan and state that free trade does indeed work.  Outlook: Leans Dem  

8. Missouri 9th – Hulshof has decided to run for Governor.  Unfortunately, running from an unpopular president only to run for the seat of an unpopular Governor, makes it more likely that Hulshof will find himself in early retirement in the end.  However, the Republican and Democratic primaries are both competitive in this district.  The Republican field includes three state representatives and a former football star.  The Democratic field (aka: the more realistic field) includes a state representative, county commissioner, ex state speaker, and an ex state senator.  Rating this race is difficult until it’s determined who wins on the Republican side.  Should the football star win, then this may be an easy Democratic victory.  Outlook: Too Early to Call

9. New York 21st – McNulty has decided to retire and nine Democrats are at least interested in taking this Albany based seat, including the former GOP Chair of Albany, that may be an indicator of how well the GOP has been performing statewide.  Whoever wins the Democratic primary is a safe bet come November.  Outlook: Safe Dem

10. New York 26th – Tom Reynolds has decided to retire (lucky for him, since the only other option would have been electoral defeat).  The Democratic primary features Davis, who has money vs. Powers, who has the Democratic Party endorsement.  A third Democrat, Kryzan, has also entered the battlefield.  The likelihood is that Powers prevails.  The downside is that New York holds its primary in September, providing Powers with very little time to raise any funds spent against Davis.  There is no way that a stubborn Davis will back down from this primary fight and he will spend freely in the meantime.  While the Republican nominee is weak, a drawn out primary may leave Powers drained and wounded.  Could an appointment in Washington force Davis out?  Doubt it.  Outlook: Toss Up

Here is another ten interesting, yet very “non-competitive” primaries remaining (ranked alphabetically by state):

1. Alabama 5th – No one expected that the GOP’s star recruit would be forced into a primary, yet that is exactly what happened.  He narrowly missed the 50% mark.  The Republicans have encouraged and tried to lightly nudge Guthrie out of the run-off race, yet she refuses to nudge.  She poses no serious threat, yet the fact that Parker couldn’t win 50% of the vote against seriously underfunded challengers begs to question whether the Republicans even really have a chance here.  Outlook: Lean Dem.

2. Arizona 1st – Renzi has decided to retire.  Kirkpatrick is the DCCC choice, yet she is also being challenged by Titla who is American Indian, which in itself is an asset within this district.  The edge goes to Kirkpatrick.  The one thing that Kirkpatrick and Titla must avoid is a nasty primary.  If American Indians feel their candidate was unfairly attacked, then this could present trouble for Kirkpatrick.  The bad side for the Republicans is that they were unable to convince any formible challenger to compete for this seat.  Outlook: Dem Pickup

3. Arizona 5th – Six Republicans have decided that they want to challenge Mitchell.  The lateness of the primary (September) and any wounds remaining make it likely that whoever prevails in the primary will be an underdog come November.  Outlook: Likely Dem

4. Connecticut 4th – Ever since Shays took control of this district (1987) there has never been a congressional primary.  Whitnum succeeded in forcing the DCCC’s choice, Himes, into an August primary.  Many suspect that this will only raise Himes profile, yet it should also question whether Himes was truly the best choice for Democrats.  This district is not liberal (Rell and Lieberman both won here).  Himes has aligned himself with the Lamont side of the party (not necessarily a wise manuever, any base of support Lieberman may have statewide lies here).  However, he has also utilized free media including letters to the editor and walking 22 miles throughout the district.  Unlike Shays opponent in the last two election cycles, Himes has no executive experience, and many view him as privileged, a concern that Whitnum has used in attacking Himes.  Whitnum has only one signature issue: the H1B Visa program and how it cost her a job.  Should she succeed in even winning 25% of the primary vote, then Himes may be in trouble.  Outlook: Toss Up

5. Florida 8th – While Keller may be in trouble the Democratic field features three strong challengers: 06 nominee Stuart and 06 primary loser Grayson, both of whom are facing DCCC preferred choice Smith.  Smith may find himself drained of funds and the ability to compete against Keller following the August primary.  While the district is treading Democratic, a vicious primary can only help Keller in the end.  Outlook: Likely Rep

6. Florida 10th – There has always been talk of Young retiring, yet it has been just that: talk.  The Democratic primary features Sampson, the 2006 nominee versus Dunedin mayor Hackworth.  Reform Party nominee for Governor, Linn is also part of the three-way primary.  Hackworth, a former Republican, may have appeal here, whereas Young, while respected and popular, may suffer the same fate as similar Republicans in the past, such as Roth of Delaware (age and withering power).  The only thing that would make this race competitive would be if Hackworth can raise serious funds for this Tampa-based media market.  Outlook: Likely Rep.

7. Florida 24th – Scandal tainted Feeney barely won against underfunded challenger Curtis in 2006.  Curtis is now back for victory, however the DCCC has other plans and has found a more serious challenger with funds in Kosmas.  Unfortunately for Feeney is the fact that his overwhelming support for Bush, personal scandal, and his ultra-conservatism, do not fit well within the district.  Kosmas should easily swat away Curtis.  Unfortunately, like Davis in New York, he is not willing to drop out voluntarily.  Outlook: Lean Dem

8. New Hampshire 1st – Bradley never expected to be unemployed following the 2006 election.  The DCCC did not even spend any funds within the district, yet it may have been funding and the overflow of ads in the 2nd that assisted Shea-Porter in defeating Bradley.  She was one of five seats, the others being Boyda in Kansas, Hall in New York, Loebsack in Iowa, and Yarmuth in Kentucky, where Democrats won even when the DCCC provided little to no funding.  Now Bradley wants his seat back, yet he must face four other Republicans, including an ultra-conservative, in a primary before he gets that chance.  Outlook: Lean Dem

9. New Hampshire 2nd – Five Republicans are fighting for a chance to be defeated by Hodes.  As a freshman, Hodes has risen within the party.  Whoever wins the Republican primary would at best be described as a sacrificial candidate against Hodes.  Outlook: Safe Dem

10.New York 13th – Fossella had a love child, then the Republican nominee died.  Now Republicans are back at the drawing board, yet the deadline is quickly approaching.  The Democratic side features city councilman McMahon, a Staten Islander vs. Brooklyn attorney Harrison.  The DCCC has decided to support McMahon, yet Harrison refuses to drop out.  The Staten Islander will prevail in the primary and in the general election.  As for the Republican Party, they can now consider this, their first lost seat of 2008.  Outlook: Dem Pickup

1. Young (AK) – Young is being hit by scandal and his campaign war chest is going mostly to attorney fees.  While it is a three-way primary race, Lt. Gov. Parnell, an endorsement of popular Gov. Palin, spells absolute trouble for Young.  Should Parnell win and defeat Young, then expect this seat to become less likely for a Democratic pickup.  Outlook: Young loses.

2. Broun (GA) – This is a battle between who is more conservative, similar to the battle Cannon lost in Utah.  Broun defeated the establishment candidate in a special election.  Many attribute this victory to cross-over Democratic voters from more liberal areas, such as Athens.  Fleming is more of a “nut” than Broun and the cross-over appeal voters will not be able to rescue Broun this round.  Outlook: Broun loses.

3. Jefferson (LA) – He has been scandal plagued for eternity.  Even with scandal, Jefferson has managed to prevail in the past.  A crowded primary would be considered beneficial to him.  However, at a time when incumbents on both sides are being thrown out or retiring “voluntarily” there is no doubt that Jefferson is in trouble.  Outlook: Jefferson loses.

4. Kilpatrick (MI) – Detroit is souring over the Kilpatricks, more the son than the mother.  Had she simply run as Carolyn Cheeks she would be safer.  A three-way primary benefits Kilpatrick, yet Waters is viewed as the more serious candidate and Scott as a mere placement candidate meant to split votes.  Coincidentally, Kilpatrick defeated a fellow incumbent in a 1996 primary to win this seat.  That fellow Democrat now serves on the Detroit City Council, the same group that has been battling her son.  Deja-vu has returned.  Kilpatrick is in deep trouble.  Outlook: Too Close to Call.

5. Cohen (TN) – He represents a majority African-American district, yet he is Jewish and white.  He is being challenged by Tinker, an African-American who is supported by some religious leaders who believe that only a fellow African-American can represent other African-Americans (a joke at best).  A crowded primary with fellow African-Americans, including Tinker, assisted Cohen in winning this seat last election.  Most polls show Cohen with a decent favorability rating and he endorsed Obama early on.  Outlook: Leans Cohen.

6. Lamborn (CO) – This is a three-way primary that was expected to be a two-way primary between “wacko” Lamborn and whoever polled best between Crank and Rayburn.  Polls indicated Crank performed best against Lamborn, yet Rayburn decided that any deal made between him and Crank was not valid.  As a result, a three-way primary continues to exist.  This is not only a conservative district, yet also a military district and Lamborn can tout his seat on the Armed Services.  A seat there does indeed matter here.  Unlike Musgrave, Lamborn has also maintained a lower profile.  Outlook: Likely Lamborn

7. Barrow (GA) – This is another district that is a little less than 50% African-American.  Barrow is a conservative Southern Democrat.  His opponent is State Senator Thomas.  She is more of a liberal Southern Democrat, yet also African-American.  A low turount benefits Barrow.  He also has proven a winning streak against challenging Republicans.  Outlook: Likely Barrow.

8. Cazayoux (LA) – A third district with a sizeable African-American population.  Should state representative Michael Jackson challenge Cazayoux in a primary, then it may become nasty.  Should this occur then it may seriously hurt Cazayoux with the African-American base of this district (Jackson is African-American).  Republicans may also find themselves in a nasty primary as well.  Should Jackson challenge Cazayoux, which is unlikely, then expect Cazayoux to have an edge.  Outlook: Likely Cazayoux.

9. Blackburn (TN) – Big Oil’s darling is having her conservative credentials questioned.  While Leatherwood has little chance of actually defeating Blackburn, he has managed to catch her off guard for the time being.  Outlook: Safe Blackburn.

10. There really is no “stand out” for number ten, yet there are three races worth watching:

Keller (FL) – If Keller performs low against an ultra-conservative and underfunded opponent, then this Orlando based seat, which has been treading more Democratic since Keller entered office with Bush, could be a serious Democratic pickup come November.

David Davis (TN) – Davis is a freshman facing two opponents from 2006.  Roe is the more challenging of the two, he is a mayor, physician, and veteran (executive, health care, and military experience).  Not a bad mix for a conservative district.

Baird (WA) – Baird initially oppossed the war in Iraq and now has come to support it.  This transformation may not play well in his liberal district.  His opponent is a peace candidate, who not well funded, may be able to run a grass roots campaign and succeed.  

**Please note.  I am a moderate Democrat and not a liberal.**

The trickle continues:

VA-Sen:

     Mark Warner (D): $3 million raised; $5.1 million CoH

KS-Sen:
     Jim Slattery (D): $500K raised

     Pat Roberts (R-inc): $850K raised; $3.1 million CoH

AZ-01:
     Mary Kim Titla (D): $53K raised

GA-Sen:
     Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): $800K raised; $4 million CoH

TN-Sen:
     Bob Tuke (D): >$200K raised

     Kenneth Eaton (D): $275K personal donation

Actblue has also posted their top ten candidates who have raised money through their system this quarter:

It will be really interesting to see the ratio of these candidates’ funds raised through Actblue compared to their total receipts.

Previous posts:

2Q Fundraising Results Thread