Help Darcy Recover

One of the most amazing candidates running for Congress this is year is Darcy Burner in Washington state’s 8th congressional district. She was the one who (with the help of retired generals and national security experts) put together “A Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq” which has been endorsed by over 50 Democratic congressional candidates, including Jill Derby. She has been on the forefront on all the important fights, including FISA. She’s just such a wonderful candidate that I’d be writing about her daily were she running in Nevada.

However, yesterday Darcy received a deep personal blow when her family’s home was destroyed in a fire and she, her husband, and her son were lucky to escape alive. Firefighters also managed to rescue their puppy but their cat died in the fire.

Now, I told you above what a wonderful candidate she is and naturally, a lot of candidates are all talk and of little substance. This is the t-shirt Darcy wore when she escaped the fire:

Photobucket

The text on the shirt is XML for “end war”.

Now, as Markos points out, Darcy faces a huge problem. Running a campaign is a time consuming effort. When your house has been destroyed through a fire your life has been uprooted and you simply can’t campaign and raise money as before. He (and other bloggers) has made a pretty good suggestion. We can’t help much with the personal side of this being so far away. But everyone of us can help her continue her campaign. Markos estimated that she would need to raise $150,000 in the month of July to keep her campaign competitive. So, the goal is to have the netroots raise that money for her so that she can focus the saved time on putting her life back together.

You can give to Darcy’s campaign here. And whether it’s $5 or $50, every bit helps.

In the meantime Darcy has put out a statement on her website. In it she asks not for contributions for her campaign but rather:

For those who would like to do something to express their support, let me suggest making a contribution to your local humane society or animal shelter in memory of Charlotte, or to the Washington State Council of Firefighters Benevolent Fund.

It’d be great if you show your support to Darcy in any way you like. Thanks!

Contribute to Darcy

Here’s a news report:

Cross posted from My Silver State

Are any of our surprise fundraisers among these fraudsters?

Sunday’s Boston Globe dealt with a subject near and dear to our hearts: the fundraising reports of longshot Congressional challengers.  But instead of warming said hearts by discussing the viability of some of these challengers and the potential for them to cross over into the serious races we all hope and live for, instead it exposed information more likely to drive a stake through aforementioned hearts (who can turn a bad cliche into a tortured extended metaphor?  I can!!) — many of these longshot candidates are unwitting accomplices to what amounts to massive fundraising fraud.  Fortunately for our wounded (bleeding?) hearts, the entire operation described in the Globe was built around fleecing conservative small donors, with semi-fraudulent Republican candidates.

But, it might be worthwhile to take a look under the hood of some of our own surprise fundraisers too.

More on the flip.

So the Boston Globe article is here.  In short, and reading between the lines a little bit, a direct mail company hilariously named BMW Direct would mail contracts to no-name conservative challengers to deeply entrenched Democrats: Barney Frank, John Kerry, Ted Kennedy, etc.  I’m guessing the company offered to do direct mail fundraising, for no charge, for these no-name candidates, in exchange for the right to keep a vaguely defined cut.  Candidate agrees, figuring any income is better than none, and also agrees to name a figure at BMW Direct as campaign treasurer.  Candidate gets a couple tens of thousands out of the deal, and thinks nothing of it ever again.

Behind the scenes, and recorded in FEC reports that these loser (or deliberately ignorant) candidates don’t read, we see what the company is really doing — sending out massive direct mail blasts to far-right-wing small donors, vilifying the boogeyman liberal incumbent and promising a tough, principled-conservative race right in the throat (dare I say the beating heart?) of liberalism.  And they raise millions of dollars from the knuckle-dragging right-wing base, and then they keep all of it.   They don’t quite literally steal it; they just have the in-house campaign treasurer agree to pay 95+ percent of the revenue back to BMW for consulting and other fees, passing on only a few grand to the candidate the money was ostensibly raised for.

They literally raised a million each for Barney Frank’s challenger in 06, John Kerry’s challenger this very cycle, and a challenger to black incumbent David Scott last cycle.  They raised more for issue-based committees: pro-life, anti-UN, pro-gun, anti-immigration, the whole panoply of right wing base obsessions.  The Save New York PAC raised $1.1 million in 06, probably off of Hillary, and spent it all, but managed to give only $20k to actual candidates, and at least $900k to BMW Direct.  (I wish I were a funnier guy, this article is a Comstock Lode of quotes and jokes.  The Save New York jokes would write themselves if I had a better ear for humor.)

Anyway, the article is a perfect encapsulation of what many of us already think the GOP is: a bunch of rich assholes taking advantage of a bunch of reactionary rubes to gain money and power.  The BMW guys are getting obscenely rich, by stoking the hatred of a bunch of badly-connected hyperconservatives for Frank, Kennedy, Kerry (the PAC aimed at him was called Veterans for Victory, and targeted his war record… in 06) and others, and getting them to open their wallets.  Not that different from some of the televangelists, I guess.

And the candidates that weren’t actually stooges (and if you’re a stooge, you’d better be demanding more than a 3% cut) were pretty irritated too.  The guy “running against Barney Frank” got 145 votes in the GOP primary, then dropped out.  But Barney Fag (Dick Armey’s term, uttered on the floor of the House) was too lucrative a target I guess, because BMW continued raising money for the not-on-the-ballot candidate, claiming hilariously to the Globe’s reporters that “the firm’s executives believed Morse was running a write-in campaign as an independent candidate after failing to qualify for the ballot.”  They actually kept raising — and keeping — money for Mr 145 votes well into 2007.  (The quotes from donors who didn’t realize they were giving money to candidates not actually on the ballot are pretty funny too.)

====================

Anyway, laughing at soulless Republican operatives and brainless conservative donors is pretty funny, and a nice metaphor for the whole party, but not actually the reason I started this diary.  The fundraising fraud angle is actually a pretty serious one.  I’m quite confident that this is not the only crooked money in politics, though I also doubt that something identical in form is happening on our side.

I wrote this diary because I think it’d be worth looking at the high-raising Dem candidates in obscure races this cycle, and see if a similar pattern of high non-local income and equally high expenditures on direct mail consultants exists.  I doubt that it does, mostly because our surprise fundraisers — Mike Skelly, Bob Lord, the two South Carolina candidates are the ones I can remember offhand — are all running against obscure, average GOP incumbents.  There’s no starpower in John Culberson that could drive a crooked direct-mail fleece-the-base operation.  If we were running challengers to… gosh, there really is no one comparable on their side, because we don’t demonize the opposition in the same way I guess… Cornyn?  Dole?  McConnell?  Sensenbrenner?  Santorum?  Musgrave?  Inhofe?  then those would be the places to look.  

Of course, unlike Mr. 145 votes, Bobby Casey for instance was running a real campaign.  It would still be possible for a direct mail company to raise money off of Slippery Santorum and keep it all, but Casey would have a direct interest in preventing that since he would need the money, or at least would need to control who was getting cuts of it.  So for totally obvious fraud of this variety, you’d probably need to turn to not-seriously-challenged incumbents, with high hatred quotients in the base.  There aren’t all that many of those, partly because we don’t have the radio apparatus that trains relatively unsophisticated small donors to hate many different officeholders by name.  Sensenbrenner and Hyde could conceivably serve as the “targets”  of such an operation.

I’m a little doubtful that we’ll find anything quite so blatant and visible on our side as was just unearthed on their side.  But still, it’d be interesting to look at that handful of from-nowhere high dollar raisers, especially the South Carolina pair, and see where exactly their money is coming from, and how it’s being spent.  You never really know until you look.

So, on to the FEC reports!

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DISCLAIMER:  much of what I write below turns out to be wrong.  🙁

GA-13: Well, That Explains It…

Some of you may have had the same “wtf?” moment that I did upon seeing James’s Q1 Cash-on-Hand Competitiveness from a few months ago: the Democratic representative who was in the deepest fundraising hole vis-à-vis his or her opponent wasn’t Carol Shea-Porter or Nancy Boyda or Tim Mahoney… it was David Scott, sitting in GA-13, a safe black-majority district in Atlanta’s suburbs. He was being outraised by Deborah Honeycutt, who had actually raised 105% of CoH that Scott had.

There’s a not-so-simple explanation at work here: GA-13 is ground zero for the efforts of a shadowy Republican direct-mail group called BMW Direct that specializes in using national fundraising appeals on behalf of conservative candidates at the local level. Josh Marshall summed up BMW’s agenda succinctly:

finding nonsense Republican candidates in hopeless races, raising tons of money for their hopeless campaigns and then funneling all the money back to themselves and sundry contractors and cronies.

Honeycutt has posted some remarkable fundraising numbers, raising $1.7 million this cycle ($500,000 of that in Q1 alone), and burned through $1.5 million of it. (This despite being the 2006 candidate, and losing to Scott by a 69-31 margin as a result of having “no presence” locally.) The odd thing is: only $16,695 of that money got spent on the ground in Georgia. The rest simply disappeared into BMW’s internal operations, or got farmed out to BMW contractors for activities like data processing and list rentals.

The Boston Globe broke the story, focusing on Charles Morse’s 2006 race against Barney Frank. Morse raised $700,000 for the race in MA-04 via BMW’s direct-mailing efforts, but 96% of that money, rather than being spent in the district, was paid to BMW. The net result of Morse’s amazing fundraising? He won a total of 145 votes in the primary, failing to qualify for the general election.

BMW does apparently help a few legitimate officeholders (including Robin Hayes and Jim Ryun), but their efforts mostly seem to center on fleecing low-information right-wing grannies to give money to invest in candidates on the basis of flimsy appeals, all the while knowing that the candidates are going nowhere and running bare-bones campaigns, allowing them to keep almost all the money for themselves. (As several TPM commenters pointed out, this is almost exactly the plot line from The Producers.) Rarely has there ever been such a clear illustration of the giant pyramid scheme that is the Republican Party.

OH-16: Boccieri Announces Energy Plan at Canton Sunoco

Cross-posted from OH-16: John Boccieri for U.S. Congress:

Senator Major John Boccieri(D) put his “boots on the ground” at a downtown Canton, OH, Sunoco station yesterday morning. His position on Energy Independence has been clear from the beginning of his campain:

Controlling Energy Costs, Creating Jobs, Protecting our

Environment

With the Middle East’s choices about oil supplies forcing many in Northeast Ohio to make tough choices here at home, it is high time to end our dependence on foreign oil.

For the last 7 years, George Bush has been ignoring the problem. John believes we shouldn’t be giving billions in tax breaks to big oil companies while they enjoy record profits. Instead John supports investing in new technologies and cutting edge businesses in Ohio, to create high paying energy jobs in our state.

John supports encouraging research to promote advanced domestic energy resources, including bio-fuels and clean-coal, as well as solar, wind and bio-mass. The new energy economy presents a great opportunity, not just to increase our energy security and produce cheaper, cleaner fuels but to grow businesses in our state.

Yesterday, 16th Congressional District candidate John Boccieri spoke with customers at a local gas station about the skyrocketing cost of fuel. He talked with them about the effect of rising gas prices on family budgets, and detailed his plans to provide relief. He worked his way across the lot talking to concerned citizens and doing a brief stint pumping gas before moving on to his planned press conference. Reporter Edd Pritchard of The Canton Repository, Schuring’s Endorsing Hometown Newspaper, was on the scene and brings us a pretty good take on the event here.

“Everything goes up because of the cost of gas,” Larry Lipley, an Alliance resident, told Boccieri. That means people are paying more for food and other necessities, while not buying other items, said Lipley, who works as a sales representative and drives 600 miles each week.

Pam Arbuckle, of North Canton, pumped $45 worth of gasoline into her minivan as she spoke with the candidate. “It probably didn’t even fill it up,” she said.

John Boccieri said:

“We need to focus on Midwest innovation, not Middle East oil. We could grow our own fuel here in the state, refine it here in the state, and lessen our dependence on foreign sources of oil.”

Further adding,

“Let me be clear about one thing, my friends. We are not going to drill our way out of this problem.”


He detailed his short-term and long-term energy solutions, including:

Cracking down on oil companies and Wall Street speculators who are artificially inflating oil prices.

Halting shipments to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve – which have stopped as of today and will remain suspended through the end of the year.

Supporting fuel-efficient vehicles and fuel cell research at Stark State to boost the local economy.

Investing in biofuels that can be grown in the 16th District.

Building new local refineries to process biofuels and other cutting-edge fuel sources.

Creating an Apollo program to revolutionize our energy sources and free us from oil dependence forever.

More below the fold…

Boccieri noted that his opponent, Kirk Schuring, voted with convicted criminal ex-Governor Bob Taft(R) to raise the state gas tax, which had an initial price tag of $580 million and now places a burden of over $250 million per year on Ohio families. He pointed out that even top oil executives say expanded domestic drilling won’t yield a drop of new oil for at least 10 to 15 years.

In what was an obvious attempt by opposition to Boccieri’s plan, he made it clear where he stands on “Big Oil”. When asked what he would do to help oil companies afford more prospecting and drilling, Boccieri replied:

“If you want a congressman who’s going to stand up and fight every day to make sure that big oil companies quadruple their profits, then I’m not your guy. …If you want someone who’s going to stand up right here and fight for the people of this community who can’t afford to put gas in their tanks, then I want to be your Congressman.”

Oh, and trust me you, there were plenty of “ANWR Chanters” chiming in to disrupt the event. I’ll let a local Independent Blogger bring you up to speed on that distraction tactic.

At the end of the event, I pulled John Boccieri in for one last question:

Q: As I drive through rural ares of our District, I see field pumps setting idle. Is there a way to get these locals feeding the District to ease the strain created by imports?



A:
The solution to the 16th District’s energy problems lay in alternative fuel sources. Look at places like the Rolls-Royce Fuel-Cell Research Building at Stark State.

I walked away with a chuckle of irony rolling through my head about John’s answer.

The Rolls-Royce Fuel-Cell Research Building at Stark State College of Technology is in Jackson Township, Stark County, Ohio.

Hmmm…isnt that where Kirk lives?

ROMP: Retain Our Minority

The Republicans in the House have a clever acronym for their analogue to the DCCC’s Red to Blue program: ROMP (Regain Our Majority Program). I suspect the long line of Republican recruits challenging Democratic incumbents and holding out their tin cups to the NRCC are looking at the newest list of ROMP recipients and saying “Man, that is flagrant false advertising!”

Here’s the newest list of fresh-faced, eager young recruits, ready to bring their grassroots-powered outsider energy to picking off do-nothing Democrats standing in the way of conservative progress:

Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, WV-02

Rep. Phil English, PA-03

Chris Hackett, PA-10

Rep. Tom Feeney, FL-24

Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, FL-21

Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, FL-25

Steve Stivers, OH-16

Pete Olson, TX-22

Add that on top of the previous list of ROMP recipients from April:

Rep. Michelle Bachmann, MN-06

Rep. Vito Fossella, NY-13

Rep. Sam Graves, MO-06

Rep. Ric Keller, FL-08

Anne Northup, KY-03

Erik Paulsen, MN-03

Rep. Bill Sali, ID-01

Rep. Jean Schmidt, OH-02

Rep. Tim Walberg, MI-07

Darren White, NM-01

So, um… let’s get this straight. The Republican route to regaining the majority is by spending a lot of money to defend a 14-year incumbent against a woman who runs an arboretum?

The newest ROMP installment, out of 8 recipients, features 2 seats where the Republicans are trying to defeat a Democrat, plus one where they’re trying to hold an open seat. Add in the previous ROMP installment, which, out of 10 recipients, targets one Democratic seat for pick-up (plus 2 open seats for holds). So, if they add 1.5 more new Democratic targets every three months until the election, they’ll have a full slate of ROMP recipients for picking up those 19 seats they need in order to Regain Their Majority in… uh, let’s break out the calculator here… early 2011?

Senator Cochran (R-MS) on John McCain

According to the AP, my homestate senator, Thad Cochran, recalls an incident in 1987 where he, Bob Dole, and John McCain were on a diplomatic mission with representatives of Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua.  From what Cochran says, John McCain grabbed one of Ortega’s associates by the shirt and lifted him out of his chair in a fit of anger.  Thankfully, no violence ensued.  Cochran stated that he was scared for their safety since the Nicaraguan officials were carrying weapons and the Congressional delegation was not.

Considering how foreign “you’re either with us or against us” policy has been over the past 7.5 years, it frightens me that we could see another 4 years of this cowboy “diplomacy” from the United States.

I wonder how much traction the Cochran story will make around the news wires.  If McCain is having his own Republican colleagues question his judgement in foreign affairs as a candidate for president, just imagine what will happen if, God forbid, McCain gets into office.  I’d hate for McCain to go China and grab the Prime Minister by his suit jacket.

ID-Sen: Risch Leads LaRocco By 15 in New Poll

Lake Research for Larry LaRocco (5/20-25, likely voters):

Larry LaRocco (D): 28

Jim Risch (R): 43

Rex Rammell (I): 6

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±4.5%)

If LaRocco wins this race, how many Senate seats would Democrats pick up across the nation? The National Journal ranks this race as the 14th most likely GOP seat to flip, but I think it might be more like 16 or 17.

Looking Forward: Senate 2010

Of the 34 Senate seats up for re-election in 2010, nine can be considered safe for the time being.  These seats are:

MD – Mikulski (Likely retirement with Congressman Van Hollen receiving the Dem nomination).

IL – Obama (Should he win the presidency, his appointed successor should be someone who can win with moderates (Congresswoman Bean).  Should he not be elected president, Obama would be a safe bet for re-election.

AL – Shelby (Artur Davis may be interested in this race, but two things should come to mind: he represents a gerrymandered district and this is the Deep South).

IN – Bayh is simply popular at home.

ID – Crapo is representing a red state.

OR – Wyden is representing a really blue state.

NY – Schumer can raise money and win voters easily (The only possible sacrificial lamb, willing to go willingly, would be Peter King of Long Island, realizing that the Democrats will be redistricing him into more “immigrant friendly” territory come 2011 – one other Republican will also have the honor of being redistricted, due to New York projected to lose two congressional seats come 2010.  The question is not if Democrats will win the State Senate this year, yet more likely how many seats will they actually win).

SC – Demint (I encourage anyone to visit upstate where churches are the size of shopping malls.  This explains why Republicans still run the show here).

AK – Murkowski (Should the team of Young and Stevens lose, as expected, she will quickly join the reform side of the Alaskan Republican Party).

Now, the interesting match-ups (in no particular order):

NH – Gregg vs. Lynch (Gregg is too conservative for the state and Lynch is more popular.  Since the Old Man of the Mountain collapsed in 2003 the New Hampshire Republican Party has collapsed as well.  This is one of three states – Colorado and Virginia being the other – that have gone from solid red to purplish blue).  Forecast: Dem Pickup

AR – Lincoln vs. Huckabee (Both are popular, yet Huckabee has a larger profile.  Should Huckabee join the McCain team as VP and win, then Lincoln is safe.  Should that not occur then this could be one of the more interesting races of 2010).  Forecast: Toss Up

CA – Boxer vs. Issa (She’s liberal.  He’s overly conservative.  California is a split of both, however the populated areas are more liberal, thereby benefiting any Democrat.  Schwarzenegger is a failed governor and Dreir would be forced out of the closet, therefore Issa would be the most likely to challenge Boxer.  He has money, yet he also has a miserable voting record and may rightfully be considered one of the worst members of Congress).  Forecast: Safe Dem

IA – Vilsack vs. King (Grassley may retire for two reasons: being in the minority and being in a party dominated by Southern radicals.  Vilsack passed on running for president and King passed on running for Senate against Harkin.  King realizes trouble is on the horizon.  The state is expected to lose a congressional district in 2010 and all expect that King and Latham will find themselves battling eachother.  Rather than battle a fellow Republican, King may decide to continue his anti-immigration battle cry on the statewide level.  A certain loss indeed).  Forecast: Dem Pickup (if Grassley retires)

OK – Coburn vs. Henry (The fact is that there are more Democrats than Republicans statewide, yet the state is bright red in choosing its presidential candidates.  Should Henry challenge Coburn this will be a top tier race with Henry holding a slight advantage).  Forecast: Dem Pickup

FL – Martinez vs. Sink (Martinez is in trouble.  In fact, crossover non-Cuban Hispanic voters were partially responsible for his narrow victory last time.  Democrats realize that  success lies in the I-4 corridor (Daytona Beach-Orlando-Tampa area) where voters are more moderate than the conservative north – Jacksonville and Panhandle and the liberal south – Broward and Palm Beach.  Alex Sink, the state CFO, and wife of Bill McBride, a former Democratic candidate for governor, fits the perfect profile).  Forecast: Dem Pickup

VT – Douglas vs. Welch (Leahy may retire, yet only if Obama is elected.  Don’t expect Leahy to retire if McCain wins, he definately would want to be fully involved in fighting to keep a conservative from being appointed to the Supreme Court.  Should Leahy retire a match up between Governor Douglas, a Repubocrat in a dark blue state vs. Congressman Welch would be an interesting fight).  Forecast: Lean Dem

UT – Bishop vs. Matheson (Bennett will likely retire for reasons similar to Grassley.  This is the most conservative state in the nation.  However, Matheson has proven he can win in dark red territory and much of the state’s growth is occurring in his district.  Yet, this is Utah after all).  Forecast: Lean Rep

HI – Lingle vs. Abercrombie (Inouye is likely to retire.  Lingle is a popular Republican – yes they do exist in Hawaii, yet in small numbers.  Abercrombie has represented most of Oahu in the House.  There is no doubt that he wants to move to the Senate and he has waited around patiently, unlike former Congressman Case).  Forecast: Toss Up

NC – Burr vs. McIntyre (The best way to describe Burr’s tenure would be an utter failure and polls agree.  McIntyre who represents a mainly rural agricultural district and retains a conservative voting record, would be the best challenge to Burr.  Should this occur consider Burr endangered).  Forecast: Dem Pickup

CO – Salazar vs. Tancredo (Anyone who thinks that “wingnut” Tancredo was retiring is mistaken.  Tancredo is looking for higher office: Governor or Senate.  His failed presidential bid was intended to raise his profile and his anti-immigration rhetoric, yet it was an utter disaster at best.  Sec. of State Coffman is running for Tancredo’s open seat and would be unlikely to change chairs after two years.  The only other two Republicans that come to mind would be “wingnuts” Lamborn and Musgrave.  Colorado’s entire Republican delegation are “wingnuts” and would be serious underdogs to Salazar).  Forecast: Safe Dem

OH – Voinovich vs. Ryan (Can also be considered the future vs. the past, old vs. young, old school vs. new school, etc.  Ryan presents a serious challenge to Voinovich.  Should the seats of Pryce, Chabot, Schmidt, and Regula fall into Democratic hands, then expect Voinovich to call an early retirement.  Maybe Boehner, after a Republican coup d’etat, may want to try his hands at dispatching Ryan – highly unlikely, but a good way into early retirement after a terrible tenure as Republican leader).  Forecast: Dem Pickup

WA – Murray vs. Reichert (Reichert is a moderate and can bring in moderate voters along with the conservative eastern part of the state.  However, Murray will be in the majority party and be able to deliver an abundance of resources into the state, including into Walla Walla and Wenatchee.  Conservative no longer).  Forecast: Safe Dem

KY – Chandler vs. Davis (Bunning says he is running for re-election.  The GOP will change his mind fairly quickly after the post-election losses of 2008.  Chandler is popular and known statewide.  He represents a conservative rural district.  Davis represents a moderate to conservative suburban district.  Rural vs. suburban in Kentucky.  Rural wins).  Forecast: Dem Pickup

AZ – Napolitano vs. Flake (If McCain wins she gets to choose his Republican successor.  The weakest candidate would be Russell Pearce, his xenophobia and radical views would make him an easy defeat.  Should McCain not win the presidency, expect him to resign, unlike Kerry.  Even if he did not resign, a radical such as Pearce, would most certainly force him into a primary.  McCain would not want to face a similar defeat as McGovern – two presidential defeats only to face further embarrasment in having your Senate seat taken.  Flake is conservative, but is also one of the more respected members of Congress.  While many would give the edge to Napolitano, this is a race that could be competitive once voters become familiar with Flake.  Forecast: Lean Dem  

CT – Shays vs. Blumenthal (Dodd is likely to retire.  Blumenthal has always been considered a gubernatorial candidate, yet passed up every opportunity.  Both understand that it is moderate independents and not liberal Democrats that determine statewide victors.  Shays represents the cities of Stamford and Norwalk, both of which he, Rell, and Lieberman won.  Blumenthal resides in Greenwich, yet him and Shays appear to have a friendly working relationship, therefore making a race against eachother unlikely.  Republican contenders in place of Shays would be US Attorney Kevin O’Connor, a Bush appointee and someone who worked closely with Alberto Gonzales, or Lt. Gov. Fedele, a resident of Stamford).  Forecast: Likely Dem

ND – Dorgan vs. Hoeven (Hoeven passed up an opportunity to challenge Conrad this year.  He is popular statewide and would have been a formible challenge.  Should he run against Dorgan this would be a closely watched race).  Forecast: Toss Up    

LA – Alexander vs. Melancon (Vitter, the candidate of family values, will be presented with three options: voluntary retirement, a challenging primary, or a general election defeat.  Neither are a winning strategy, yet if Melancon is the Democratic nominee, the centrist Democrat would have broad appeal throughout the conservative areas of the state.  Alexander, the former Democrat, would find it difficult to differentiate himself from the more challenging Melancon).  Forecast: Dem Pickup

WI – Feingold vs. Ryan (Feingold is liberal.  Ryan is conservative.  Ryan is a rising star in the Republican Party, at least what is left of the party.  Wisconsin is not necessarily a blue state and many are not as liberal as Feingold.  Ryan would be a formible opponent, yet Feingold would be able to exploit his majority status.  This is a race that could heat up in the end).  Forecast: Likely Dem

GA – Isakson vs. Marshall (Isakson wanted to run for Governor, then saw the polls and decided not to.  The same polls show that he is not necessarily a popular Senator.  Congressman Marshall represents a Republican district and would be able to win over Republicans elsewhere throughout the state.  Isakson could be in trouble, even in peachy Georgia).  Forecast: Toss Up

KS – Sebelius vs. Tiahrt (Brownback has already announced that he’s retiring.  Sebelius may represent a red state, yet she is extremely popular, and has assisted the Republican Party with its ongoing implosion.  Congressman Tiahrt or Moran could challenge Sebelius, yet both would be at a great disadvantage.  Forecast: Dem Pickup

SD – Rounds vs. Herseth (Thune may run for Governor.  Rounds and Herseth are both popular and would make this an extremely tight race.  Should Thune pass up a run for governorship, then expect this seat to remain in Republican hands.  Should it be a Rounds vs. Herseth match then a close race would be on the horizon).  Forecast: Safe Rep/Toss Up

TX – Dewhurst vs. Lampson (Hutchinson is expected to run for Governor.  If Hutchinson resigns early, then expect Lt. Gov. Dewhurst to be appointed to the seat, rather than a drawn out primary costing the Republican ambitions in retaining the governorship.  Lampson, a conservative Democrat, would have cross-over appeal.  A win in November would be a guarantee that he could win on the state level.  Other Democrats with cross-over appeal who have potential would be Congressmen Chet Edwards, Jim Turner, or Martin Frost.  All have substantial funds for any future race.  Forecast: Likely Rep

PA – Rendell vs. Gerlach (Specter most likely will retire.  If he does not retire, then expect it to be a Schwartz vs. Specter race, Rendell will not challenge Specter due to their close relationship.  Should Specter retire then expect Rendell to be the top recruit on the Democratic side.  Congressman Gerlach or Dent could challenge Rendell, yet both would be at a serious disadvantage.  Former Republican strongholds, Montgomery and Bucks Counties, are now majority Democratic.  A Montgomery County race, Schwartz vs. Gerlach, would be the most interesting race of all).  Forecast: Dem Pickup

MO – Bond vs. Robin Carnahan (Missouri is a middle of the road state, ultra conservative in Springfield and liberal in Saint Louis.  Sec. of State Robin Carnahan could put the family name to good use and continue the winning trend – her father was governor, mother was US Senator, and brother is a current congressman.  Should she challenge Bond, then expect an extremely close race.  Forecast: Toss Up

NV – Reid vs. Porter (Reid may be Majority Leader, yet his popularity at home is weak.  However he is more popular than current Governor Gibbons, if that provides any consolation.  Congressman Porter is facing a tight re-election this year and he is fully aware that Reid provided assistance in recruiting Titus as a strong challenger.  Porter will be seeking revenge, win or lose.  With the current ongoing Gibbons scandal expect the state GOP to take a little beating).  Forecast: Lean Dem

MI-07: Introducing the New Walberg Watch

In August of 2006, a man named Tim Walberg (R-Tipton) defeated incumbent Congressman Joe Schwarz (R-Battle Creek) in the Republican primary. Those that live in Michigan's 7th District may remember the vicious primary campaign, in which Walberg– funded by the Club for Growth and other radical right-wing groups– destroyed the name and good work of a dedicated public servant. Schwarz was conservative, but he was honest and hard-working, and was one of the few “good” Republicans left. And Tim Walberg, a former far-right minister, attacked Schwarz without mercy.

A few days after the primary, I started a blog called Walberg Watch. Originally hosted on Blogspot, I wanted to create an online record of Walberg's extreme positions as the 2006 election approached, facing the terribly underfunded Democratic nominee Sharon Renier. Walberg won that election by just four percent, and I found myself with a new blogging mission: following Tim Walberg's adventure through what will hopefully be his only term in the United States House of Representatives.

Over the last two years, a lot has changed, with much of it building toward the re-launch at the new www.WalbergWatch.com. Below the fold, I'd like to walk you through some of the additions to Walberg Watch. I'm excited by what we can accomplish in the next 126 days as we work to bring about better representation. I hope that by the time you're done reading this, you are too.

The Blog

In addition to all of the new features, the original Walberg Watch blog is still up and running, with a new, blue look. I'm still writing about Congressman Walberg's voting record and all the issues of the campaign, and all the other contributors are still more than welcome to post to the new site.

That's not the exciting part. The exciting part is that you can post, too. No, we didn't switch over to Scoop or SoapBlox… that's more work than I'm ready for right now, and we are focused on only one congressional district. So, no diaries for us.

Instead, we've got a nifty form for you to submit your own content. It's not WYSIWYG, but it's got everything you need to start blogging.

Why is this a good idea? It's another level of people-powered politics. I can't tell you how many times readers have left comments saying things like, “Fitzy, why aren't you writing about X?” or “I was at Walberg's town hall and he said…” This is the perfect medium for sharing your thoughts and your stories. Let's face it, I'm not always on top of things. I miss votes, I miss stories, and sometimes, I'm just plain busy. If you're not satisfied with my blogging, or you just want to help out, this is hwo you do it! There is a slight delay, because I'll check over each post before it goes online to prevent spam.

This system can work on so many levels, and it's probably the part that I'm the most excited about. Suppose you're just an ordinary reader, but you just got back from a campaign event with Mark Schauer and you're really excited. Tell us about it! Suppose you're a well-respected Michigan blogger who, in addition to running a major Michigan blog, regularly posts items about Congressman Tim Walberg. Disappointed that Walberg Watch hasn't linked to you yet? Do it yourself!

Anything that you submit through this form will be posted to the Walberg Watch blog under the “Guest Blogger” user, and you'll be credited at the top of the post.

 

Video – Ours and Theirs

The written word can say so much, but sometimes, hours and hours of blogging could be summed up so much more simply with a few simple images and a little audio. That's why Walberg Watch now features a Media Center, which will be the center of 7th District-related media. We already have included every video created by the Schauer campaign and have added the 2006 campaign ad from Sharon Renier and the independently-produced videos from the 2006 and 2008 cycles. As more are created, they'll be added. As Congressman Walberg begins to advertise, I'll be working to include all of that as well.

But it's not just going to be copying other people's work. I'm entering the exciting (and slightly frightening) world of video myself, with weekly Walberg Watch videos. Here are the first two:

Like the blogging above, I'm more than open to adding more content produced by readers as well. Think you can make better videos than I can? Well, I agree, and I'd love to see them!

 

Campaign Calendar

There's no better way to judge a person by actually showing up and listening to what he or she has to say. I've seen Tim Walberg up close, and you should to. It'll give you a clear idea of what a smooth talking, career politician with a radical agenda looks like.

And what about Mark Schauer and Sharon Renier? We've got two Democratic candidates and a primary just over a month away. Sure, you could read their positions on the issues (here and here), but why not ask them questions in person, too?

We've got the answer for that in our Calendar page. Upcoming candidate events are conveniently listed, and there's a handy map which shows where candidates are going and where they've been

Go, ask Tim Walberg the tough questions! Get to know Mark Schauer and Sharon Renier. And remember, Walberg Watch is always there for the latest updates. 

 

Online Resources

It's not just enough for people like me to type away at a keyboard all day. There are a lot of voters in the 7th District that don't know much about Walberg, or are dissatisfied but aren't yet sure about his potential replacements. It's going to take a lot of hard work to unseat Congressman Walberg, which is where you have to come in. Luckily for you, I've got some things that could help out.

At our new Action page, we're compiling all sorts of resources that will help you talk with friends and neighbors about their representative. There's Tim Walberg's voting record, and, coming soon, a printable document outlining what a progressive Democrat representing the district would do differently. There's information on how to register to vote (or how to register others), plus important deadlines. We can show you where to go if you want to contribute to or volunteer with a Democratic campaign in the 7th District, and you can sign up for weekly updates and e-mail action items (which start going out next week).

What kind of action items would those be? We'll be sending out suggested topics for letters to the editor and issues for letter-writing campaigns to Tim Walberg. And, of course, we'll be providing resources for making your letters even better, too.

 

Organize!

The new and improved Walberg Watch is more than just a new domain (www.walbergwatch.com). Following a reader suggestion, I created a Walberg Watch page on PartyBuilder, the social networking site hosted by the Democratic National Committee.

Why is that a good thing? Through PartyBuilder, you can connect with like-minded voters who are as eager as you are to elect someone new. Coming from Lenawee County (and just a short drive away from Tim Walberg himself), I can tell you that for some of us, it can be kind of lonely being a Democrat. There's nothing that energizes you more than learning that you're not alone!

But “connect” is such a vague term. What does that actually mean? Using PartyBuilder tools, it could mean organizing a letter-writing campaign to voice your opinions to Tim Walberg. It could mean coordinating efforts to write letters to the editor in area newspapers. It could mean organizing independent canvassing in more remote parts of the district.

The best part is, any organizing can be done independently of Walberg Watch itself. That's the power of grassroots energy and people-powered campaigning.

That image, of course, is a little out of date… we now have five members, not just one, and I'm hoping to see many more join as I promote the page over the coming weeks.

 

What YOU Can Do

Hopefully, by now, you're as excited as I am. If you're a voter in Michigan's 7th Congressional District, and even if you're not, here are five steps you can take today:

  1. Visit Walberg Watch. I'm eager to show off the new look, and to discover technical bugs. Since I'm not a web designer and did the upgrade myself, the new site is a mix of Blogger, Google Page Creator, customized HTML, and a little bit of PHP I had to pick up. I've been fighting bugs for a week and hopefully have
    found most of them, but I could use your help in finding whatever is left.
  2. Update your blogrolls. The new location dropped us off the map for Google searches, so if you're currently linking to the old Blogspot page, updating that link will help a great deal. (If you're not already linking to us… well, why not?)
  3. Sign up for e-mail updates. You, too, can get the latest on Tim Walberg and action that can help end his time in Washington.
  4. Join our PartyBuilder page. Connect with other Democrats and help come up with ideas for advancing progressivism in the heart of southern Michigan.
  5. Blog! Start writing about why Tim Walberg needs to go, and help make Walberg Watch a better resource for everyone.

Thank you very much for your time. I hope to see all of you over at Walberg Watch sometime soon!

Cross-Posted from Michigan Liberal and Blogging for Michigan.

‘Anne can’ (WV-02)

Ineffective Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito came in to office with her good friend George W. Bush and she needs to leave with him. For the past 7 and a half years what has she accomplished for WV-02? Nothing. She has little to show for her four terms in office for the WV-02 District.

As Clem pointed out the right wing bloggers don’t even write anything positive about her because there’s nothing there.

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For the past 21 years, Anne Barth has worked with Sen. Robert C. Byrd to serve West Virginians. There’s been no one better at constituent service in Congress than Senator Byrd and he doesn’t do it alone. He’s relied on staffers like Anne Barth.

Like her political idol George W. Bush, Shelley Moore Capito grew up as the child of privilege. Her father former Gov. Arch Moore made sure when she wanted to run for office she was elected. She was born on 3rd base and acts like she hit a triple. And throughout her long years in Congress, she’s voted consistently on issues that have helped people like her – wealthy and born into privilege – over people who know what it’s like to earn a paycheck through the sweat of our brows. She’s voted against bills supported by the unions and she’s voted on bills that put a greater burden on the middleclass to give bigger tax cuts to the rich.

Anne Barth was born the daughter of a minister, who served different parishes throughout the state. Then she served as the right hand of Senator Byrd as he served the people of the state.

When it comes to getting the job done, Anne can.

In other WV-02 news, the DCCC picked the race as one of 13 to highlight Republicans tied to Big Oil.

spruceshoe pointed out that Capito is one of 8 Republicans receiving funds from a national Republican funnel group at the NRCC called ROMP (Regain Our Majority Program).

How are they going to gain seats spending money to defend an incumbent?

Clem had a nice Barth fundraiser diary.

Celebrate July 4th with Anne Barth.

Chris Van Hollen will be on the state’s most influential radio call in show Wednesday to talk up Barth.