Tag: Independents

So I'm sure that everyone here is familiar with the simplistic analysis about Independents, that they're all swing voters, that they're all somehow supporting something coherent, that they are, like their namesake, completely independent from either political party. Savvy political analysists have long understood that the number of truly Independent voters is a lot smaller than the self-identification numbers suggest, but that doesn't stop even the most savvy of political analysists from assuming that Independent = Moderate. Not only is this wrong, it's actually the case that even moderate voters are not the swing voters that the media makes them out to be.

For example, would it surprise you to learn that in 2010, when Republicans absolutely destroyed Democrats in the House, Democrats won moderates 55-43? Or maybe you'd be interested to learn that Blanche Lincoln, after losing the election to John Boozman by 21 points that she had won moderates by 14 points.

Independents, as one might expect, went very big for the Republicans, favoring them to the Democrats by a 56-37 point margin. This should serve as a strong reminder as to why Independents are not moderates and why moderates aren't necessarily swing voters.

To read the chart that's below the fold, the Independent/Moderate numbers are the percentages that Democratic candidates got, the comparison is how much more Democratic the moderate vote was compared to the Independent vote. The final number is how well the Democratic candidate did among moderates relative to Independents. The only races here are ones with exit poll data from 2010 (hence why DE-AL and VT-AL are part of the data).Also the Y and N show whether or not the Democratic candidate won the moderate vote. Also, in the case of FL-Sen, I combined Crist's numbers and Meeks's numbers together for purposes of this analysis. Alvin Greene's numbers in South Carolina are also his own, but it's also worth mentioning that 13% of the moderate vote went to the Green nominee, Tom Clemonts, meaning that the combined moderate vote in South Carolina went 53% against DeMint even as the vote went 63-37 for him.

And without further ado, the data:

	Independent	Moderate	Comparison		Mod won?	D vote	Mod compared to actual vote
AZ-Sen	29%	45%	16%		N	35%	10%
AZ-Gov	40%	59%	19%		Y	43%	16%
AR-Sen	25%	55%	30%		Y	37%	18%
AR-Gov	59%	79%	20%		Y	64%	15%
CA-Sen	42%	58%	16%		Y	52%	6%
CA-Gov	42%	59%	17%		Y	54%	5%
CO-Sen	37%	60%	23%		Y	48%	12%
CO-Gov	39%	64%	25%		Y	51%	13%
CT-Sen	48%	56%	8%		Y	55%	1%
CT-Gov	38%	50%	12%		Y	49%	1%
DE-Sen	48%	66%	18%		Y	56%	10%
DE-AL	47%	66%	19%		Y	57%	9%
FL-Sen	48%	64%	16%		Y	50%	14%
FL-Gov	44%	60%	16%		Y	48%	12%
HI-Sen	69%	83%	14%		Y	75%	8%
HI-Gov	51%	59%	8%		Y	58%	1%
IL-Sen	28%	51%	23%		Y	47%	4%
IL-Gov	29%	51%	22%		Y	47%	4%
IN-Sen	34%	52%	18%		Y	40%	12%
IA-Sen	28%	42%	14%		N	33%	9%
IA-Gov	41%	55%	14%		Y	43%	12%
KY-Sen	42%	57%	15%		Y	44%	13%
LA-Sen	32%	48%	16%		Y	38%	10%
MO-Sen	31%	52%	21%		Y	41%	11%
NV-Sen	44%	66%	22%		Y	50%	16%
NV-Gov	32%	53%	21%		Y	41%	12%
NH-Sen	35%	43%	8%		N	37%	6%
NH-Gov	53%	68%	15%		Y	53%	15%
NY-Sen	54%	75%	21%		Y	66%	9%
NY-Sen*	50%	69%	19%		Y	63%	6%
NY-Gov	49%	71%	22%		Y	63%	8%
OH-Sen	27%	48%	21%		Y	39%	9%
OH-Gov	37%	58%	21%		Y	47%	11%
OR-Sen	47%	61%	14%		Y	57%	4%
OR-Gov	43%	52%	9%		Y	49%	3%
PA-Sen	45%	60%	15%		Y	49%	11%
PA-Gov	41%	53%	12%		Y	46%	7%
SC-Sen	14%	40%	26%		N	28%	12%
SC-Gov	41%	63%	22%		Y	47%	16%
TX-Gov	40%	62%	22%		Y	42%	20%
VT-Sen	68%	68%	0%		Y	64%	4%
VT-Gov	51%	42%	-9%		N	50%	-8%
VT-AL	69%	66%	-3%		Y	65%	1%
WA-Sen	41%	57%	16%		Y	52%	5%
WV-Sen	51%	67%	16%		Y	54%	13%
WI-Sen	43%	58%	15%		Y	47%	11%
WI-Gov	42%	56%	14%		Y	47%	9%
Average	42.30%	58.45%	16.15%		Y	49.38%	9.06%

Cross-posted from OH-16: John Boccieri for U.S. Congress:

Senator Major John Boccieri(D) put his “boots on the ground” at a downtown Canton, OH, Sunoco station yesterday morning. His position on Energy Independence has been clear from the beginning of his campain:

Controlling Energy Costs, Creating Jobs, Protecting our

Environment

With the Middle East’s choices about oil supplies forcing many in Northeast Ohio to make tough choices here at home, it is high time to end our dependence on foreign oil.

For the last 7 years, George Bush has been ignoring the problem. John believes we shouldn’t be giving billions in tax breaks to big oil companies while they enjoy record profits. Instead John supports investing in new technologies and cutting edge businesses in Ohio, to create high paying energy jobs in our state.

John supports encouraging research to promote advanced domestic energy resources, including bio-fuels and clean-coal, as well as solar, wind and bio-mass. The new energy economy presents a great opportunity, not just to increase our energy security and produce cheaper, cleaner fuels but to grow businesses in our state.

Yesterday, 16th Congressional District candidate John Boccieri spoke with customers at a local gas station about the skyrocketing cost of fuel. He talked with them about the effect of rising gas prices on family budgets, and detailed his plans to provide relief. He worked his way across the lot talking to concerned citizens and doing a brief stint pumping gas before moving on to his planned press conference. Reporter Edd Pritchard of The Canton Repository, Schuring’s Endorsing Hometown Newspaper, was on the scene and brings us a pretty good take on the event here.

“Everything goes up because of the cost of gas,” Larry Lipley, an Alliance resident, told Boccieri. That means people are paying more for food and other necessities, while not buying other items, said Lipley, who works as a sales representative and drives 600 miles each week.

Pam Arbuckle, of North Canton, pumped $45 worth of gasoline into her minivan as she spoke with the candidate. “It probably didn’t even fill it up,” she said.

John Boccieri said:

“We need to focus on Midwest innovation, not Middle East oil. We could grow our own fuel here in the state, refine it here in the state, and lessen our dependence on foreign sources of oil.”

Further adding,

“Let me be clear about one thing, my friends. We are not going to drill our way out of this problem.”

He detailed his short-term and long-term energy solutions, including:

Cracking down on oil companies and Wall Street speculators who are artificially inflating oil prices.

Halting shipments to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve – which have stopped as of today and will remain suspended through the end of the year.

Supporting fuel-efficient vehicles and fuel cell research at Stark State to boost the local economy.

Investing in biofuels that can be grown in the 16th District.

Building new local refineries to process biofuels and other cutting-edge fuel sources.

Creating an Apollo program to revolutionize our energy sources and free us from oil dependence forever.

More below the fold…

Boccieri noted that his opponent, Kirk Schuring, voted with convicted criminal ex-Governor Bob Taft(R) to raise the state gas tax, which had an initial price tag of $580 million and now places a burden of over $250 million per year on Ohio families. He pointed out that even top oil executives say expanded domestic drilling won’t yield a drop of new oil for at least 10 to 15 years.

In what was an obvious attempt by opposition to Boccieri’s plan, he made it clear where he stands on “Big Oil”. When asked what he would do to help oil companies afford more prospecting and drilling, Boccieri replied:

“If you want a congressman who’s going to stand up and fight every day to make sure that big oil companies quadruple their profits, then I’m not your guy. …If you want someone who’s going to stand up right here and fight for the people of this community who can’t afford to put gas in their tanks, then I want to be your Congressman.”

Oh, and trust me you, there were plenty of “ANWR Chanters” chiming in to disrupt the event. I’ll let a local Independent Blogger bring you up to speed on that distraction tactic.

At the end of the event, I pulled John Boccieri in for one last question:

Q: As I drive through rural ares of our District, I see field pumps setting idle. Is there a way to get these locals feeding the District to ease the strain created by imports?



A: The solution to the 16th District’s energy problems lay in alternative fuel sources. Look at places like the Rolls-Royce Fuel-Cell Research Building at Stark State.

I walked away with a chuckle of irony rolling through my head about John’s answer.

The Rolls-Royce Fuel-Cell Research Building at Stark State College of Technology is in Jackson Township, Stark County, Ohio.

Hmmm…isnt that where Kirk lives?