So I'm sure that everyone here is familiar with the simplistic analysis about Independents, that they're all swing voters, that they're all somehow supporting something coherent, that they are, like their namesake, completely independent from either political party. Savvy political analysists have long understood that the number of truly Independent voters is a lot smaller than the self-identification numbers suggest, but that doesn't stop even the most savvy of political analysists from assuming that Independent = Moderate. Not only is this wrong, it's actually the case that even moderate voters are not the swing voters that the media makes them out to be.
For example, would it surprise you to learn that in 2010, when Republicans absolutely destroyed Democrats in the House, Democrats won moderates 55-43? Or maybe you'd be interested to learn that Blanche Lincoln, after losing the election to John Boozman by 21 points that she had won moderates by 14 points.
Independents, as one might expect, went very big for the Republicans, favoring them to the Democrats by a 56-37 point margin. This should serve as a strong reminder as to why Independents are not moderates and why moderates aren't necessarily swing voters.
To read the chart that's below the fold, the Independent/Moderate numbers are the percentages that Democratic candidates got, the comparison is how much more Democratic the moderate vote was compared to the Independent vote. The final number is how well the Democratic candidate did among moderates relative to Independents. The only races here are ones with exit poll data from 2010 (hence why DE-AL and VT-AL are part of the data).Also the Y and N show whether or not the Democratic candidate won the moderate vote. Also, in the case of FL-Sen, I combined Crist's numbers and Meeks's numbers together for purposes of this analysis. Alvin Greene's numbers in South Carolina are also his own, but it's also worth mentioning that 13% of the moderate vote went to the Green nominee, Tom Clemonts, meaning that the combined moderate vote in South Carolina went 53% against DeMint even as the vote went 63-37 for him.
And without further ado, the data:
| Independent | Moderate | Comparison | Mod won? | D vote | Mod compared to actual vote | ||
| AZ-Sen | 29% | 45% | 16% | N | 35% | 10% | |
| AZ-Gov | 40% | 59% | 19% | Y | 43% | 16% | |
| AR-Sen | 25% | 55% | 30% | Y | 37% | 18% | |
| AR-Gov | 59% | 79% | 20% | Y | 64% | 15% | |
| CA-Sen | 42% | 58% | 16% | Y | 52% | 6% | |
| CA-Gov | 42% | 59% | 17% | Y | 54% | 5% | |
| CO-Sen | 37% | 60% | 23% | Y | 48% | 12% | |
| CO-Gov | 39% | 64% | 25% | Y | 51% | 13% | |
| CT-Sen | 48% | 56% | 8% | Y | 55% | 1% | |
| CT-Gov | 38% | 50% | 12% | Y | 49% | 1% | |
| DE-Sen | 48% | 66% | 18% | Y | 56% | 10% | |
| DE-AL | 47% | 66% | 19% | Y | 57% | 9% | |
| FL-Sen | 48% | 64% | 16% | Y | 50% | 14% | |
| FL-Gov | 44% | 60% | 16% | Y | 48% | 12% | |
| HI-Sen | 69% | 83% | 14% | Y | 75% | 8% | |
| HI-Gov | 51% | 59% | 8% | Y | 58% | 1% | |
| IL-Sen | 28% | 51% | 23% | Y | 47% | 4% | |
| IL-Gov | 29% | 51% | 22% | Y | 47% | 4% | |
| IN-Sen | 34% | 52% | 18% | Y | 40% | 12% | |
| IA-Sen | 28% | 42% | 14% | N | 33% | 9% | |
| IA-Gov | 41% | 55% | 14% | Y | 43% | 12% | |
| KY-Sen | 42% | 57% | 15% | Y | 44% | 13% | |
| LA-Sen | 32% | 48% | 16% | Y | 38% | 10% | |
| MO-Sen | 31% | 52% | 21% | Y | 41% | 11% | |
| NV-Sen | 44% | 66% | 22% | Y | 50% | 16% | |
| NV-Gov | 32% | 53% | 21% | Y | 41% | 12% | |
| NH-Sen | 35% | 43% | 8% | N | 37% | 6% | |
| NH-Gov | 53% | 68% | 15% | Y | 53% | 15% | |
| NY-Sen | 54% | 75% | 21% | Y | 66% | 9% | |
| NY-Sen* | 50% | 69% | 19% | Y | 63% | 6% | |
| NY-Gov | 49% | 71% | 22% | Y | 63% | 8% | |
| OH-Sen | 27% | 48% | 21% | Y | 39% | 9% | |
| OH-Gov | 37% | 58% | 21% | Y | 47% | 11% | |
| OR-Sen | 47% | 61% | 14% | Y | 57% | 4% | |
| OR-Gov | 43% | 52% | 9% | Y | 49% | 3% | |
| PA-Sen | 45% | 60% | 15% | Y | 49% | 11% | |
| PA-Gov | 41% | 53% | 12% | Y | 46% | 7% | |
| SC-Sen | 14% | 40% | 26% | N | 28% | 12% | |
| SC-Gov | 41% | 63% | 22% | Y | 47% | 16% | |
| TX-Gov | 40% | 62% | 22% | Y | 42% | 20% | |
| VT-Sen | 68% | 68% | 0% | Y | 64% | 4% | |
| VT-Gov | 51% | 42% | -9% | N | 50% | -8% | |
| VT-AL | 69% | 66% | -3% | Y | 65% | 1% | |
| WA-Sen | 41% | 57% | 16% | Y | 52% | 5% | |
| WV-Sen | 51% | 67% | 16% | Y | 54% | 13% | |
| WI-Sen | 43% | 58% | 15% | Y | 47% | 11% | |
| WI-Gov | 42% | 56% | 14% | Y | 47% | 9% | |
| Average | 42.30% | 58.45% | 16.15% | Y | 49.38% | 9.06% |
that all Independents are moderates. Independents run the whole gamut – from far left to far right. What people have said (and said correctly) is that, considered as a big group, Independent’s vote is more conservative that’s rhat of partisan Democrats and more liberal then that of partisan Republicans, i.e. – more or less moderate. That’s confirmed by data above. Independents generally voted 42.30% for Democratic candidates in 2010? Good. That’s less then 50%, but not by so much, and surely much less then vote among partisan Democrats (more then 80% for sure) and as surely – much less then corresponding vote among partisan Republicans (surely – less then 20%). I don’t have data for 2006 and 2008 but i am reasonably sure that in these years Independendents voted at least 55% Democratic. So what? Again – not so far from the center…
So, you didn’t convinced me before, neither – this time..))))
Republican messaging in the 80’s succeeded in making “liberal” a dirty word of sorts, and people who are left-of-center have shied away from using that label to describe their politics. Hence, many mainstream Democrats instead choose to describe themselves as “moderates,” even when they are in fact to the left of the 50-yard line of politics, perhaps as far to the left as the 25-yard line. Even today, the term “liberal” remains out of favor, with people at the left end of the political spectrum preferring to identify as “progressive.”
The term “conservative” on the other hand never really took on the negative connotation that “liberal” did, and pretty much everyone to the right of center identifies as such. That is why you see conservative pluralities in ideology polls, as the left-of-center voters split between the liberal and moderate labels. Very few Republicans, perhaps only those between the 50- and 60- yard lines politically, choose to identify as “moderate” over “conservative.”