As you may already know, Darcy Burner’s home was destroyed by fire this morning.
Some questions:
1. Is she dropping out of the race?
2. If she stays in, how will this impact the race? Does she get a “sympathy” bounce?
3. If she drops out, who’s going to run?
I’m of the opinion that Darcy wasn’t the greatest
candidate, but there may not be a credible replacements.
Unbelievable news from Utah. Not so rare in other states, but here in Utah, this is truly historic. Just got wind of a press release from Morgan Bowen, Democratic candidate for Utah’s 1st District currently held by Republican Rob Bishop taking a stand again the FISA bill, and retro-active immunity.
For those who aren’t familiar with Utah’s political landscape, it is the land of Blue Dog Jim Matheson – who of course supports retro-active immunity. Matheson traditionally calls the shots in the state, often leveraging his position as the only Democrat in the state’s federal delegation to squash real leadership against the Blue Dog agendas. Morgan has already been more than responsive to bloggers and grassroots activists, allowing a level of access for both in his campaign, as well as the Utah for Obama staff and their voter registration efforts that is unprecedented in this state (and many of us have been fighting for such things for decades!). And now he takes a very definite stance on the FISA bill, despite the backlash he can expect for doing so.
This is leadership. Finally!
Please show Morgan some love.
Last week I wrote about Where We Can Make the Most Progress in the House, where I tried to measure the biggest probable right-to-left swings that might result from the 2008 election in the House (the biggest one would be swapping out Dana Rohrabacher for Debbie Cook, in case you missed it). In the comments, the question came up of what would happen if I ran the same analysis for the competitive 2008 Senate races.
I have been reluctant to do so, because when I did the House, I relied on a demographic model for predicting which caucus new House members might join and, from there, predicting their likely DW-Nominate score. That just doesn’t work with the Senate: demographics-wise, states don’t break down as cleanly as do House districts. And Senators tend to disobey their states’ partisan lean much more so than Representatives: consider that we have two moderate Republican senators in one of our bluest states (Maine), two populist Democratic senators in one of our reddest states (North Dakota), and the swing states in the middle give us as wide a range of personalities as Russ Feingold and John Sununu.
So, I decided to try a different approach, more speculative than I generally prefer, where I tried to project prospective Democratic senators’ voting preferences by averaging out the scores of already sitting senators who seem to have some commonalities with them. As a vague rule of thumb, I tried to use one senator who had the most in common geographically and one who seemed to have the most in common ideologically and/or stylistically, although these categories pretty thoroughly blended. Here’s a case in point: Mark Warner. I decided he had a lot in common with Jim Webb (- 0.359), a fellow Virginian and someone else who knows how to connect with white working class voters, and also with Joe Biden (- 0.338), another mid-Atlantic senator with a mix of liberal intentions and pro-corporate leanings. Average those, and voila: Warner projects at – 0.349. (Some of my comparables, or the resulting scores, may strike you as completely misguided. This is all pure speculation on my part, so feel free to argue why in the comments, or ask for some clarification on a particular choice. My feelings won’t be hurt.) One exception: if the Democratic candidates have a House record, I used their most recent score from there.
| State | 110th Sen. | 110th Score | 111th Sen. | 111th Score (and Comparables) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OK | Inhofe | 0.766 | Rice | -0.392 (Dorgan + Casey) | -1.158 |
| CO | Allard * | 0.636 | M. Udall | -0.375 (110th Congress) | -1.011 |
| MN | Coleman | 0.178 | Franken | -0.746 (Klobuchar + Feingold) | -0.924 |
| NH | Sununu | 0.481 | Shaheen | -0.442 (Leahy + Feinstein) | -0.923 |
| TX | Cornyn | 0.557 | Noriega | -0.336 (Bingaman + Salazar) | -0.893 |
| NM | Domenici * | 0.281 | T. Udall | -0.525 (110th Congress) | -0.806 |
| NC | Dole | 0.451 | Hagan | -0.330 (Webb + Lincoln) | -0.781 |
| NE | Hagel * | 0.376 | Kleeb | -0.366 (Tester + Dorgan) | -0.742 |
| ID | Craig * | 0.457 | LaRocco | -0.242 (103rd Congress) | -0.699 |
| OR | Smith | 0.155 | Merkley | -0.698 (Wyden + Whitehouse) | -0.698 |
| KY | McConnell | 0.507 | Lunsford | -0.168 (Pryor + Ben Nelson) | -0.675 |
| AK | Stevens | 0.260 | Begich | -0.360 (Tester + Bingaman) | -0.620 |
| MS | Wicker | 0.465 | Musgrove | -0.147 (Landrieu + Ben Nelson) | -0.612 |
| VA | J. Warner * | 0.258 | M. Warner | -0.349 (Webb + Biden) | -0.607 |
| ME | Collins | 0.084 | Allen | -0.449 (110th Congress) | -0.533 |
| KS | Roberts | 0.376 | Slattery | -0.151 (103rd Congress) | -0.527 |
As you can see, swapping Jim Inhofe for Andrew Rice is the biggest gain (probably in terms of IQ points as well as in terms of voting record) even without factoring in that Rice may be more progressive than my score gives him credit for. However, unlike the House, where there are a fair number of opportunities to replace a right-winger with a progressive, in the Senate we’re pretty much limited to replacing right-wingers with moderates, or moderate Republicans with progressives, so the shifts are smaller.
Finally, you may notice asterisks for the GOP-held open seats. I’ve compiled a separate table that doesn’t focus on “progress” but the “what if,” i.e. how big a swing we’re looking at in terms of the potential replacement (each of whom I’ve projected to be more conservative than the guy they’re replacing, either based on their House record or on comparables). If you prefer to swap these numbers in for the numbers based on the retiring senator, this doesn’t change the order of the overall results too much, although it does highlight the importance of making sure we win our biggest races. (Especially in Colorado… Mark Udall is on the moderate side, and hasn’t endeared himself much lately with his Iraq and FISA votes, but he’s way to the left of Allard, and even more so than Schaffer, who it turns out was one of the most conservative members of the House during his time there.)
| State | GOP Sen. | GOP Score (and Comparables) | Dem Sen. | Dem Score | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | Schaffer | 0.849 (107th Congress) | M. Udall | -0.375 | -1.224 |
| NM | Pearce | 0.557 (110th Congress) | T. Udall | -0.525 | -1.082 |
| VA | Gilmore | 0.543 (J. Warner + DeMint) | M. Warner | -0.349 | -0.892 |
| ID | Risch | 0.547 (Craig + Kyl) | LaRocco | -0.242 | -0.789 |
| NE | Johanns | 0.399 (Hagel + Grassley) | Kleeb | -0.366 | -0.765 |
Elizabeth Benjamin has some more straight dope from the nuttiest race of the year:
Multiple sources confirm that former Assemblyman Bob Staniere [sp], who has long desired to run for Congress, no longer lives in the district (not a requirement in this case; one must only live in the state) and is on the outs with the GOP powers-that-be on Staten Island, is indeed circulating petitions to run.
Frank Morano, a state Independence Party official, confirms his father, Carmine, is circulating petitions in an effort to get both the Indy and GOP lines (he’ll need a Wilson Pakula for the latter).
The only hitch for Straniere? Staten Island Republicans despise him, and his name was quickly swatted down as a potential candidate in May by local GOP power broker Guy Molinari:
But Republican leaders seemed cool if not hostile to the idea of Mr. Straniere as a candidate. They pointed out that he had long feuded with other party officials, particularly with Congressman Fossella and Mr. Molinari.
In fact, Mr. Molinari described Mr. Straniere’s chances of being supported by the Republican leadership as “impossible.” He said that Mr. Straniere “would not be at all acceptable to the Republican Party. I would speculate that 98 percent of the Republican County Committee would say, ‘No dice.’ They would rather vote for a Democrat than for Straniere.”
Straniere was locked in a vicious primary for the Staten Island Borough President race in 2001 against James Molinaro, which featured some extremely brutal attacks:
Charging that Mr. Straniere (pronounced stran-YER-ie) actually lives in Manhattan and that the Staten Island residence he claims is improbably crowded, Mr. Molinaro said: “Here is a man who claims to live in Staten Island, but he has four people registered to vote in a one-bedroom apartment. Now, I believe in closeness, but come on.” Mr. Straniere acknowledges the two residences.
Speaking in an interview yesterday, Mr. Molinaro added: “He has been a defendant in 20 court cases in 20 years. He’s been sued for everything from spending his law partner’s money illegally to being sued by the federal government for not paying his taxes.”
Earlier in the day, Mr. Straniere mocked his rival’s speaking ability and education. “He doesn’t even speak in his campaign ads.” He asked: “What is his educational background? He never talks about anything involving his education after high school.”
Straniere has been on the outs ever since. If he manages to petition his way onto the ballot, the disgust of Staten Island Republicans will be delicious.
SurveyUSA (6/28-30, likely voters):
Michael Kelley (D): 41
Geoff Davis (R-inc): 54
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±4.2%)
Davis might still be feeling some residual negatives from list last bruising race, but he shouldn’t have anything to worry about this November given Kelley’s beyond anemic fundraising.
Still, it’s amusing that Davis’ numbers are worse than John Yarmuth’s, who led Anne Northup by 57-40 in the latest SUSA poll of KY-03.
SSP currently rates this race as Safe Republican.
(H/T: X Stryker)
Benenson Strategy Group for Bob Roggio (6/21-24, likely voters):
Bob Roggio (D): 32
Jim Gerlach (R-inc): 49
Undecided: 20
(MoE: ±4.4%)
These results aren’t far off from Gerlach’s recent internal, which had Roggio trailing by 56-30.
Roggio’s biggest and most immediate hurdle is clearing the “some dude” status that he currently enjoys. His name recognition is a rock bottom 10% in this most recent poll (compared to 82% for Gerlach).
Despite his sizable lead, Gerlach can’t rest on his laurels. The Philly suburbs are trending bluer and bluer by the day, especially in Montgomery and Bucks counties, where Democrats have expanded their registration advantage by another 7000 voters since the state’s April 22nd primary.
Gerlach is living on borrowed time — whether we’ll get him in this election or in the next few years, we’ll still knock him out eventually — unless he can make it to the next round of redistricting and is somehow given more favorable lines (and that’s a lot of “ifs”).
Southern Media and Opinion Research (6/26-28, likely voters, 3/26-4/9 in parens):
Mary Landrieu (D-inc): 46 (50)
John Kennedy (R): 40 (38)
(MoE: ±4%)
Let’s open ‘er up and look at the innards:
Despite polling under 50 percent, there’s still encouraging news in the poll for Landrieu. A solid 61 percent majority of respondents said they viewed her favorably, with only 33 percent viewing her unfavorably.
Kennedy, for his part, is also viewed favorably by 61 percent of respondents with only 11 percent viewing him unfavorably. Nearly 30 percent of voters were “not familiar” with him.
Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 52-36 in the state.
Public Policy Polling (6/26-29, likely voters):
Alex Sink (D): 37
Mel Martinez (R-inc): 31Robert Wexler (D): 33
Mel Martinez (R-inc): 33
(MoE: ±3.6%)
Floridians really seem to dislike Mel Martinez. His approval rating is a dismal 23%, with 43% disapproving of his antics in Congress. This one is shaping up to be a major pick-up opportunity on the horizon, especially if we can get a top-tier recruit like Florida CFO Alex Sink to enter the race. It’s never too early to start thinking ahead to 2010.
Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 46-44 in the state.
Public Policy Polling (6/26-29, likely voters, 5/28-29 in parens):
Kay Hagan (D): 37 (39)
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 51 (47)
(MoE: ±3.0%)
The post-primary bounce is clearly over for Hagan, as Dole has corrected her numbers with media buys re-introducing herself throughout the state. One particular area where Hagan needs to shore up her support is among African American voters, where she only holds a 52-28 lead over Dole.
Bonus finding: In the Presidential race, McCain leads Obama by 45-41, with Bob Barr picking up 5%.
Cross-posted at Blue Jersey
Chris Smith voted to double the cost of prescription drug co-pays for military families. In 2006, the Bush administration doubled the cost of prescription co-pays for military families under Tri-Care health coverage. Democrats introduced legislation restoring the original co-pays of $3 for generic drugs and $9 for brand name drugs, but Chris Smith and other Republicans voted to block the legislation. [HR 5122, vote #139, 5/11/06; Leadership document, “Democrats Are Fighting for Military Families,” 5/11/06]
According to research, many military families face difficult financial challenges. Over 20% of military families report having received WIC aid or food stamps from the government. While a few dollars saved might not mean much to Chris Smith, who has voted to raise his own salary by $32,600 since 1999, every dollar helps our military families afford basic necessities.[Washington Post/Kaiser Foundation Military Families Survey March 2004 CRS: Salaries of Members of Congress Updated January 8, 2008; 1999 Vote #300; 2000 Vote #419; 2001 House Vote #267; 2002 House Vote #322; 2003 House Vote #463; 2004 House Vote #451; 2005 House Vote #327; 2006 vote #261; 2007 Vote #580]
“Before veterans are veterans, they are servicemen and servicewomen. Military families deserve to know why Chris Smith voted to double their prescription drug co-pays,” said Josh Zeitz campaign manager Steve D’Amico.
This vote is another example of why I’m working to elect Josh Zeitz and bring Chris Smith back to New Jersey. I know you know want to turn the seat blue, so if you can volunteer, please email me at: ian_at_joshzeitz_dot_com. To learn more about Josh and his stance on the issues, please visit his website.