Month: July 2008

TheUnknown285 proposes ( http://www.swingstateproject.c… ) that Carol Shea-Porter, NH 1, is a good investment and I want to second that.  Her campaign is going to be real hand-to-hand combat – the R’s and their 527s see her as vulnerable and have targeted her with ads that have been running for months already – but she is well armed.

First, she just tells the truth and people can see that.  She inspires confidence by refusing to cop to the easy political summary of an issue.  She sees it as her job to educate, unconstrained by conventional wisdom.  She seems to find the underlying realities of an issue and communicate that in a way that people understand.  An example is her explanation of her FISA vote in today’s Portsmouth (NH) Herald: http://www.seacoastonline.com/… .  

We’ll see in November how well she’s bringing the whole district along, but anecdotal signs are good. Regular folks who don’t necessarily follow politics all that closely say, “Oh, yeah, I’m going to vote for her.  She’s really working hard down there.” Or “I’m proud to have her representing me.”  What they really end up saying is that, whether or not they agree on everything, they can see how serious and honest she is and they buy into that.  All this is independent of their party affiliation.

Second, she’s a professional legislator and politician, in the best sense of the word.  She actually attends her committee hearings, works her issues, shephards legislation through the process.  Then, in Unity, NH last Friday, she reached rhythmic rhetorical heights before 4,000 people and a wall of media, improvising and creating real excitement.  A few hours later, she converted a room of 40 people by telling stories from the front lines of committee work.

Finally, although she won last time on a viral campaign and no budget, she looks to be fully committed to both on-the-ground organizing and serious fundraising in this campaign.  Recently, she cold-called a business person who follows the issues in a middle-of-the-road sort of way but has never been politically active.  After a half hour discussion of issues, he proposed hosting a house party that, two weeks later, raised serious money.

So there’s nothing inevitable about the outcome of this race.  National Republicans are going to invest in winning back this seat.  We need to do the same.  Carol’s had good fundraising results so far, but will need major support from every direction before it’s over.

I donated to Jim Himes (CT-04), Gary Peters (MI-09), Andrew Rice (OK-Sen), and Mark Begich (AK-Sen). How about you?

Since Crisitunity has covered some of the remaining competitive House primaries on the front page, I thought I’d do a diary on the Arizona primaries, which are September 2.  Here are profiles of the Congressional races (I used to live in CD-01 and have continued to follow the state’s politics online since I moved):

AZ-01: An open seat (indicted GOP Congressman Rick Renzi is retiring), and the most exciting primary for the Democrats.  State Sen. Ann Kirkpatrick, a moderate, has the cash and the establishment support.  Her expected chief rival from the left, former television news reporter Mary Kim Titla, has absolutely fizzled and can’t seem to raise any money.  Who is giving Kirkpatrick quite a scare is outspoken progressive Flagstaff attorney Howard Shanker.  Though Shanker hasn’t raised as much money as Kirkpatrick (though more than Titla), he’s been endorsed by a fairly impressive list of folks: Progressive Democrats of America, CD-07 Congressman Raul Grijalva, and every single chapter council of the Navajo Nation.

You might ask why the Navajos are backing a white dude from Flagstaff over someone born on a reservation (Kirkpatrick) or an ethnic Native American (Titla).  It’s because Shanker was the attorney who defeated a proposal for snowmaking with reclaimed water on one of the Navajo’s sacred mountains, arguing before the Supreme Court that to do so would violate their tribal sovereignty.

Unfortunately for Shanker, the stars are aligned against him this year.  It’s a well-known secret that the Navajo only turn out to vote in off-year elections, when their tribal president is elected.  In 2002, they propelled political unknown George Cordova to victory over a crowded primary field, but in 2008, it’s unlikely they’ll turn out for Shanker.  Shanker’s also hurt by the fact that there’s another candidate to his left, Kucinich 2008 GLBT Coordinator Jeffrey Brown — whom Shanker unsuccessfully tried to have tossed off the ballot.

For the Republicans, mining lobbyist and 2002 candidate Sydney Hay will be the nominee, though she’s facing an interesting challenge from Tucson Electric Power VP Tom Hansen.  Hansen is a rarity in Republican circles: a bedrock conservative who’s shocking liberal on environmental issues (as in, he wants to phase out gasoline-powered cars altogether over the next 20 years).  If the Republicans had any brains, they’d nominate Hansen, but the smart money’s on Hay.  Either Kirkpatrick or Shanker is favored over Hay, particularly given the fact that there’s a right-leaning independent in the race (he’s a climate-change denier).

AZ-02: This is a rematch between horrific Congressman Trent Franks and retired music teacher John Thrasher (D), whose wife is a State Representative.  Expect the same result as last time: a blowout win by Franks.

AZ-03: One of the hottest races in the country, as hard-fundraising attorney Bob Lord (D) gears up to challenge surprisingly-vulnerable Congressman John Shadegg.  No primaries in this race, as Lord’s strong fundraising scared everybody else out.  Call me a pessimist, but I really can’t see East Valley voters tossing out Shadegg, whose father was Barry Goldwater’s chief of staff.  Then again, I never expected to see Congressman J.D. Hayworth in neighboring CD-05 go down; he’d weathered two stiff challenges in the 1990’s and was considered safe before losing to Harry Mitchell in 2006.  I also never expected to see anyone seriously challenge Shadegg, and Lord has certainly blown me away with his polling and fundraising so far.  In any case, this is the one of all eight races I’m least certain about in terms of predictions.

AZ-04: Another rematch between Congressman Ed Pastor (D) and challenger Don Karg.  Expect the same result as last time — Karg lost in a landslide and didn’t even bother to put up a website.  He’s got one now, but it’s pretty darn pathetic.

AZ-05: Freshman Congressman Harry Mitchell (D) faces a crowded field of top-drawer Republican challengers: former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert, State Reps. Laura Knaperek and Mark Anderson, millionaire Jim Ogsbury, and a late entrant, lobbyist and former State Sen. Susan Bitter Smith.  Nevertheless, Mitchell dodged a bullet when his most fearsome challenger, moderate and beloved Corporation Commissioner (a statewide office) Jeff Hatch-Miller, dropped out for personal reasons.  The field seems to be coalescing around Schweikert and Bitter Smith, though Ogsbury could use his millions to keep it close.  I was really sweating about Hatch-Miller, but I think Mitchell is favored over all of his remaining rivals — the dude has a thirty-five-foot statue of himself in his district that was erected by his beloved constituents (when he was just a State Senator, no less).

AZ-06: We finally managed to find two candidates to run against Congressman Jeff Flake, who’s gone unchallenged the past two cycles — and one of them, trucking company account manager Chris Gramazio (D), seems fairly serious.  (The other candidate is university librarian Rebecca Schneider.)  Nevertheless, the wildly popular Flake should easily dispatch all comers until he decides to either retire or run for higher office.

AZ-07: All that remains to be seen in this heavily Dem district is whom progressive Congressman Raul Grijalva (D) will face in the general election: pastor Gene Chewning, or virulent racist Joseph Sweeney.  Sweeney was the Republicans’ sacrificial lamb in 2006 after defeating the well-funded Mayor of Avondale in the primary, so he’ll probably defeat Chewning as well.  In any case, Grijalva, who’s one of the most liberal Congressmen in the country, will easily win reelection.

AZ-08: Another tight district, as freshman Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords prepares to square off against State Senate President Tim Bee.  No primaries here, and the right-leaning independent who was planning to run dropped out and endorsed Bee.  Bee has a reputation as being somewhat moderate, and he’s well funded, but Giffords is a superstar (albeit a moderate DLC one) and will probably win again.

Predictions:

AZ-01: Kirkpatrick (D) def. Hay (R)

AZ-02: Franks (R) def. Thrasher (D)

AZ-03: Shadegg (R) def. Lord (D)

AZ-04: Pastor (D) def. Karg (R)

AZ-05: Mitchell (D) def. Schweikert (R)

AZ-06: Flake (R) def. Gramazio (D)

AZ-07: Grijalva (D) def. Sweeney (R)

AZ-08: Giffords (D) def. Bee (R)

Net pickup: +1

(Note: I also blog for ProgressiveHistorians.)

Last Updated: October 29, 2008 at 3:00 PM

SurveyUSA (6/27-29, likely voters):

David Boswell (D): 47

Brett Guthrie (R): 44

(MoE: ±4.3%)

While Kentucky’s 2nd CD is ancestrally Democratic, its PVI is a deep red R+12.9, so this is a pretty strong showing for Boswell — one that might turn some heads in DC. Boswell and Guthrie are both state Senators, but Boswell has been around forever (and even served for a term as the state’s Agriculture Commissioner).

Fundraising has been a bit of an issue for Boswell: his legislative duties have distracted him from putting his full energies into campaigning and raising cash until relatively recently. Guthrie held a nearly 4-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage in the latest filings, which is why the DCCC may have been reluctant to award Boswell with “Red To Blue” status and instead slotted KY-02 in the “Emerging Races” slate for the time being.

However, this result should help grab the attention of donors.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican, but it might be due for an upgrade if Boswell continues to perform strongly in the polls and kick his fundraising into a higher gear.

In the midst of more pressing political developments, a small snippet in a Reuters article caught my attention today; among the names mentioned as potential candidates for Treasury Secretary in an Obama administration, New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine's name stuck out.  As we all know, Corzine has years of expertise in the financial world, having led Goldman Sachs before embarking upon his political career, first as a U.S. Senator, and now as Governor.  Frankly, I think he'd be an excellent Treasury Secretary . . . which opens up a slew of possibilities and questions in the horserace of New Jersey politics.

If Corzine ascends to the Cabinet, State Senate President Richard Codey will take over as Acting Governor for the fourth time (he took over when Christine Todd Whitman became the head of the EPA during Bush's first term, when James McGreevey stepped down amidst scandal in 2004, and when Corzine was hospitalized after a severe car accident last year).  Codey is probably the most popular politician in the state; we Jerseyfolk are known to badmouth our politicians and rate them poorly, even as we keep re-electing them, but Dick Codey stands out as the one pol with favorable ratings.   I would venture a guess that an overwhelming majority of voters in the state would be glad to actually elect him as Governor, after he would hypothetically serve out the remainder of Corzine's term.

And, frankly, that's a good thing, what with Chris Christie waiting in the wings on the GOP side, ready to take down a less popular Democratic candidate in the gubernatorial race.   Of course, Codey's name has also been floated out as a possible Senate candidate down the road, if, for example, Lautenberg decides that this coming term will be his last before retiring.  With Codey safely in the Governor's seat, the door would be wide open for such progressives as Congressmen Rush Holt and Frank Pallone, and perhaps even Newark Mayor Cory Booker.  Any one of them could keep the Senate seat safely in Democratic hands (and probably fend off the requisite primary challenge from Rob Andrews).  All of them are young, and could conceivably hold the seat for many years.

What I just outlined was the best case scenario: Treasury Secretary Corzine, Governor Codey, and, eventually, Senator Holt, Pallone, or Booker.  Will the stars align as such?  Discuss away! 

So far, so good for Lincoln Diaz-Balart:

Locked in a competitive reelection battle, Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart last week touted endorsements from several local unions.

“I am deeply honored by the broad support my campaign for reelection is receiving from the working men and women of our community,” he said in a press release, citing backing from unions such as the Fraternal Order of Police and United Teachers of Dade.

The only snag? Two of the unions that Diaz-Balart claimed the endorsements of are actually supporting his Democratic challenger, former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez:

But two of the 12 unions on the list — the Transport Workers Union Local 291 and International Longshoremen’s Association Local 1922, both AFL-CIO affiliates — say they didn’t endorse the Republican incumbent.

“Absolutely not,” transport workers local union president Wessell Clarke said.

Though the transport workers have considered Diaz-Balart “our friend in Congress for the past 15 years,” Clarke said, they and the longshoremen’s local went along with the Florida AFL-CIO, which voted last week to endorse Diaz-Balart’s Democratic rival, former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez. The union is also backing two other congressional challengers — Joe Garcia, who is running against Diaz-Balart’s brother, Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, and Annette Taddeo, who is trying to oust Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.

Busted! Add another Republican fuckup to the list.

I’m very disenchanted right now.  Somehow, we’re still in Iraq, don’t have universal healthcare, don’t have stem cell funding.  We’re seeing pushes for offshore drilling.  And this week, our party assumed the position when it comes to FISA.

What was even more infuriating is to see candidates that many candidates heavily supported the grassroots and the Netroots (both in the more limited sense that includes the page DailyKos, Swing State Project, etc collaborate on. and the broader sense to include all of the liberal websites such as Democracy for America and MoveON).  It’s both heartbreaking and infuriating to see people like Patrick Murphy, Kirsten Gillibrand, Nancy Boyda, Jim Webb, and Jerry McNerney, people we thought would be the vanguard of the coming progressive era, vote they way they do, with the likes of Murphy and Gillibrand joining the Blue Dogs!

I learned about reductionism in research methods.  This is the flawed logic of looking for THE cause of something instead of looking for all causes.  So, maybe we were had.  Maybe (probably?) the Netroots endorsement lists and frontpage diaries need to be more selective.  Maybe (hopefully) these are all still pretty progressive people who are just getting bad advice from their advisors and fellow Democratic caucusmembers.

But I think another cause is worth noting.  Because many are freshman, many won narrowly, and many represent competitive districts, many of these people are in close races.  That goes for the likes of Boyda, McNerney (although that one is looking better), Altmire, etc.  And considering that money, unfortunately, plays a big role in elections, these vulnerable incumbents need money to remain competitive and be re-elected.

This is where, I think the Netroots fail. I do not see one incumbent on the Orange to Blue list.  There wasn’t a single one on the Netroots List from the last election.  Democracy for America lacks incumbent members of Congress on their page.

I know many say that our incumbents are doing brisk fundraising.  Yes, but at what cost?  Let’s look at Patrick Murphy.  I see $11,750 from Comcast Corp and $10,000 from Credit Union National Assn, for example.  

So, I’m starting a fundraising page called “Protecting Our Asses.”  This page is designed to provide positive reinforcement for current, vulnerable Democratic legislators.  You vote the right way, you get support.  You throw you lot with the Blue Dogs are the corporatists, then let them bail you out.  

This will hopefully send a message that the Netroots will have watch your back if your watch ours, provide positive reinforcement for good behavior, give much need campaign funds to good but vulnerable Democrats, and dilute or possibly even replace contributions from less than progressive sources.

The first addition to the list is Carol Shea-Porter.  Shea-Porter won in what is, in my opinion, the second-most surprising, positive (because there are some negative surprises, ie. Christine Jennings) race in the country, second only to Nancy Boyda’s defeat of Jim Ryun.  Despite representing a light red district and facing a spirited challenge, Shea-Porter has been a progressive through and through.  Shea-Porter had a 98% Party Unity Score in 2007. She has a a 95.7% Progressive Punch score, making her the 29th most progressive member.  She gets A’s (above 90) in all but two categories and B’s in all.  She has perfect scores on the environment, corporate subsidies, government checks on corporate power, and labor rights.

Carol Shea-Porter voted the right way on stem cell research, Iraq funding, the Iraq escalation, timelines for Iraq, the minimum wage, prescription drug prices, and FISA.  Let’s reward her for taking the high road.

http://www.actblue.com/page/pr…

More bad news for the GOP:

Republican leaders say that Mr. Powers campaign had collected about 1,500 signatures on Mr. Powers’s petitions. If there are more than the required 1,250, Mr. Powers’s committee on vacancy would be able to name a candidate to take his place on the ballot. That committee is controlled by party officials.

When we last check in with the Staten Island GOP, they claimed to have gathered “close to 2,000 signatures” for Powers before his passing eight days ago. 1,500 may be more than they need for a ballot slot, but it’s too close for comfort — way too close — to withstand a legal challenge.

What are the GOP’s options? There’s Jamshad Wyne, an unpopular physician and Staten Island GOP treasurer who endorsed Democrat Mike McMahon back in May. Wyne has gathered 2,000 signatures so far.

There’s also Carmine Morano, a businessman and the endorsed candidate of the Independence Party, who is willing to run on the GOP line, and Brooklyn Conservative Party member Paul Atanasio, who is favored by the Brooklyn GOP but is not being embraced so far by Staten Republicans.

So when will the GOP make up their mind, with the state’s July 10th filing deadline looming? Not anytime soon, according to former Rep. Guy Molinari:

Whatever decision party leaders make, it will have to come soon. Although they are calling one another and discussing the matter, no meeting of elected officials has taken place and none is planned.

“It’s mystifying,” said Guy V. Molinari, the former Staten Island borough president and unofficial dean of the island’s Republican leaders. “I’ve made scores of phone calls and asked the elected officials to convene to discuss potential candidates. But there is no meeting scheduled at this time and I don’t know if we’ll hold one. Someone needs to clue me in as to what’s really going on.”

This race is shaping up to end with a whimper — not a bang.