Tag: AZ-04

I’ve followed Arizona politics since I first moved there in 1995.  Though I haven’t lived there full-time in almost a decade, I still read AZ political blogs (like the wonderfully-insidery Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion) regularly and try to keep up with political news there.  Below, I’ve given a rundown of the major Arizona races and added a little analysis, as well as my predictions for November.

AZ-Gov: There are about ten thousand Republicans running for this seat right now, but only three serious candidates: Governor Jan Brewer, State Treasurer Dean Martin, and rich guy/former GOP state party chair John Munger.  (Don’t believe the hype about Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio running; he had a clear shot at the nomination in 2002 and turned it down.)  Brewer is underwater in both primary and general election polling, and is extremely unlikely to survive.  Her handling of the state’s budget crisis seems calculated to anger independents (unhappy with her ineptitude) and Republicans (upset about her attempts to raise the state sales tax) alike.  Munger is an intriguing candidate, in part because of his distance from the hated state legislature, but has stumbled out of the gate.

That leaves Martin, who is one of the stronger candidates the GOP could muster, but who still performs woefully against presumptive Democratic nominee and state Attorney General Terry Goddard.  Goddard is the most popular politician in the state right now, and is trouncing most prospective candidates from both parties by double digits in the polls; Martin gets within eight points, but that’s still a bad place to be when your party controls the Governorship.  The strange thing is that there are candidates who could possibly beat Goddard (Rep. Jeff Flake is the best bet), but they’ve been scared out by Martin’s entrance into the race.  Unless Martin steps it up considerably, look for Goddard to score a rare Dem pickup in November.  Prediction: likely Dem pickup.

AZ-Sen: If John McCain is the nominee here, up-and-coming Tucson City Councilman Rodney Glassman is the best candidate we’re going to get.  He would run a race similar to Andrew Rice’s in Oklahoma last cycle: raise money, grow his name recognition, but ultimately not pose much of a threat to McCain.  If former Congressman and teabagger darling J.D. Hayworth gets into the Republican primary, however, things get a little more complicated.  Depending on how Hayworth polls against McCain, I could see rich dude, former state party chair, and 2006 Senate nominee Jim Pederson jumping in on the Democratic side.  Pederson would be a strong candidate and could easily support his candidacy with his own cash.  Less likely would be a candidacy by Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon, who would have to recant his prior endorsement of McCain to make the race.  Missing from all these possibilities, however, is any real way for a Dem to beat Hayworth, let alone McCain.  I honestly think even Hayworth would make it very difficult for even Pederson to pose much of a threat in this climate, but we can’t rule out the possibility of a seat switch here.  Prediction: likely GOP hold.

AZ-01: The GOP seriously misfired in their candidate recruiting here, digging up former State Senate Majority Leader Rusty Bowers to oppose Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick.  Bowers’ title may sound imposing, but the man hasn’t been in politics in nearly a decade, plus he lives in Phoenix, which is the kiss of death in a rural district that prides itself on its ruralness.  In addition, midterm elections coincide with elections for the Navajo Nation President and Tribal Council, which vastly increases voter turnout on the populous and overwhelmingly-Democratic Nation.  Back in 2002, this turnout boost was good for a poll overperformance of nine points by unknown George Cordova against Rick Renzi.  This district should be winnable for Republicans, but the last time they fielded decent candidates was in the 2002 primary (yes, I know they held the seat for six years after that, but my comment still stands).  Kirkpatrick’s Blue-Doggishness fits the bent of the district, and unless some more solid candidate emerges to primary Bowers, I don’t see her losing.  Prediction: likely Dem hold.

AZ-02: Someday, Democrats will manage to dislodge Focus on the Family-affiliated Rep. Trent Franks from this rapidly bluing but still very red district.  That day will be a beautiful day.  Sadly, that day is not today.  As of now, we don’t even have a candidate, as retiree John Thrasher (whose wife used to be a state rep) isn’t running again.  Prediction: safe GOP hold.

AZ-03: This district just got wild, as John Shadegg’s retirement convinced over half a dozen serious Republican contenders to jump into the race.  How winnable the seat is for businessman John Hulburd, the well-funded Democratic candidate, depends completely on how divisive the Republican primary is and who makes it out alive.  Some of the candidates, like State Rep. Pamela Gorman, are probably unelectable here; others might wipe the floor with Hulburd, but might be so drained by the primary that they don’t run particularly strong campaigns (something similar happened to David Schweikert last cycle in AZ-05).  For now, we have to say that this is a Republican seat in a Republican year, and only in extraordinary circumstances would Hulburd be able to overcome that deficit.  Democratic Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon is talking about running here, too, but his DINO status and previous support for virtually all statewide Republicans would make it difficult for him to beat Hulburd in a primary.  Prediction: likely GOP hold.

AZ-04: No one will beat Rep. Ed Pastor.  No one serious ever runs against Ed Pastor.  Ed Pastor is the safest Congressman in Arizona.  Prediction: safe Dem hold.

AZ-05: Former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert is a solid Republican candidate who got completely screwed last cycle.  He won Arizona’s late primary (formerly in September, now changed by federal law to August 31) flat broke and bloodied by state-rep-turned-lobbyist Susan Bitter Smith and three other well-funded candidates.  Still, Schweikert performed well against Rep. Harry Mitchell, and he’s back for a second try in a year much more conducive to Republicans.  This seat was drawn for former Rep. J.D. Hayworth as a safe conservative district, and if Mitchell weren’t a local legend (the guy’s got a 35-foot statue of him in the city of Tempe, I kid you not) we’d lose this in a heartbeat.  As it is, it has to be considered our most vulnerable seat.  One bright spot is that, after vowing to clear the field for Schweikert this time, state Republicans weren’t able to keep rich dude Jim Ward from running against him.  Prediction: tossup.

AZ-06: In 2008, librarian Rebecca Schneider gave Rep. Jeff Flake his first opposition in six years, managing 34% of the vote.  Schneider’s back for a second try, and she’s probably the best we’re ever going to get in this seat.  Flake is the safest Arizona Republican in Congress, but it’s nice to make him get out and actually campaign once in a while.  Prediction: safe GOP hold.

AZ-07: Despite the change in the national mood, this race will play out exactly like it did last time.  And the time before.  The GOP will put up a respectable local candidate who’s not a serious threat to Rep. Raul Grijalva (this time it’s rocket scientist Ruth McClung).  That candidate will lose in the primary to virulent racist Joseph Sweeney.  Grijalva will then paste Sweeney in the general election.  So has it ever been, and so shall it be again.  Prediction: safe Dem hold.

AZ-08: After spending a lot of time trying to build up semi-serious candidate and Iraq vet Jesse Kelly, the GOP has managed to field a very serious candidate in State Sen. and Iraq vet Jonathan Paton.  Paton is widely viewed as one of the few reasonable Republican members of the state legislature, and he is a lot smarter and better-liked than was State Senate President Tim Bee, Rep. Gabrielle Giffords’ opponent last time.  Nevertheless, he’s still a member of the hated Legislature, and Giffords is still the smartest Democrat in the state.  Paton is probably the most formidable opponent Giffords has ever faced, but if Giffords loses this seat, it’ll be part of a 70-seat landslide.  Prediction: likely Dem hold.

Seats in order of likelihood of flipping: AZ-Gov, AZ-05, AZ-03, AZ-08, AZ-01, AZ-Sen, AZ-07, AZ-02, AZ-06, AZ-04.

Predicted outcome: Dems pick up the Governorship; all other seats stay in the same partisan hands (though I’m least sanguine about AZ-05).

Since Crisitunity has covered some of the remaining competitive House primaries on the front page, I thought I’d do a diary on the Arizona primaries, which are September 2.  Here are profiles of the Congressional races (I used to live in CD-01 and have continued to follow the state’s politics online since I moved):

AZ-01: An open seat (indicted GOP Congressman Rick Renzi is retiring), and the most exciting primary for the Democrats.  State Sen. Ann Kirkpatrick, a moderate, has the cash and the establishment support.  Her expected chief rival from the left, former television news reporter Mary Kim Titla, has absolutely fizzled and can’t seem to raise any money.  Who is giving Kirkpatrick quite a scare is outspoken progressive Flagstaff attorney Howard Shanker.  Though Shanker hasn’t raised as much money as Kirkpatrick (though more than Titla), he’s been endorsed by a fairly impressive list of folks: Progressive Democrats of America, CD-07 Congressman Raul Grijalva, and every single chapter council of the Navajo Nation.

You might ask why the Navajos are backing a white dude from Flagstaff over someone born on a reservation (Kirkpatrick) or an ethnic Native American (Titla).  It’s because Shanker was the attorney who defeated a proposal for snowmaking with reclaimed water on one of the Navajo’s sacred mountains, arguing before the Supreme Court that to do so would violate their tribal sovereignty.

Unfortunately for Shanker, the stars are aligned against him this year.  It’s a well-known secret that the Navajo only turn out to vote in off-year elections, when their tribal president is elected.  In 2002, they propelled political unknown George Cordova to victory over a crowded primary field, but in 2008, it’s unlikely they’ll turn out for Shanker.  Shanker’s also hurt by the fact that there’s another candidate to his left, Kucinich 2008 GLBT Coordinator Jeffrey Brown — whom Shanker unsuccessfully tried to have tossed off the ballot.

For the Republicans, mining lobbyist and 2002 candidate Sydney Hay will be the nominee, though she’s facing an interesting challenge from Tucson Electric Power VP Tom Hansen.  Hansen is a rarity in Republican circles: a bedrock conservative who’s shocking liberal on environmental issues (as in, he wants to phase out gasoline-powered cars altogether over the next 20 years).  If the Republicans had any brains, they’d nominate Hansen, but the smart money’s on Hay.  Either Kirkpatrick or Shanker is favored over Hay, particularly given the fact that there’s a right-leaning independent in the race (he’s a climate-change denier).

AZ-02: This is a rematch between horrific Congressman Trent Franks and retired music teacher John Thrasher (D), whose wife is a State Representative.  Expect the same result as last time: a blowout win by Franks.

AZ-03: One of the hottest races in the country, as hard-fundraising attorney Bob Lord (D) gears up to challenge surprisingly-vulnerable Congressman John Shadegg.  No primaries in this race, as Lord’s strong fundraising scared everybody else out.  Call me a pessimist, but I really can’t see East Valley voters tossing out Shadegg, whose father was Barry Goldwater’s chief of staff.  Then again, I never expected to see Congressman J.D. Hayworth in neighboring CD-05 go down; he’d weathered two stiff challenges in the 1990’s and was considered safe before losing to Harry Mitchell in 2006.  I also never expected to see anyone seriously challenge Shadegg, and Lord has certainly blown me away with his polling and fundraising so far.  In any case, this is the one of all eight races I’m least certain about in terms of predictions.

AZ-04: Another rematch between Congressman Ed Pastor (D) and challenger Don Karg.  Expect the same result as last time — Karg lost in a landslide and didn’t even bother to put up a website.  He’s got one now, but it’s pretty darn pathetic.

AZ-05: Freshman Congressman Harry Mitchell (D) faces a crowded field of top-drawer Republican challengers: former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert, State Reps. Laura Knaperek and Mark Anderson, millionaire Jim Ogsbury, and a late entrant, lobbyist and former State Sen. Susan Bitter Smith.  Nevertheless, Mitchell dodged a bullet when his most fearsome challenger, moderate and beloved Corporation Commissioner (a statewide office) Jeff Hatch-Miller, dropped out for personal reasons.  The field seems to be coalescing around Schweikert and Bitter Smith, though Ogsbury could use his millions to keep it close.  I was really sweating about Hatch-Miller, but I think Mitchell is favored over all of his remaining rivals — the dude has a thirty-five-foot statue of himself in his district that was erected by his beloved constituents (when he was just a State Senator, no less).

AZ-06: We finally managed to find two candidates to run against Congressman Jeff Flake, who’s gone unchallenged the past two cycles — and one of them, trucking company account manager Chris Gramazio (D), seems fairly serious.  (The other candidate is university librarian Rebecca Schneider.)  Nevertheless, the wildly popular Flake should easily dispatch all comers until he decides to either retire or run for higher office.

AZ-07: All that remains to be seen in this heavily Dem district is whom progressive Congressman Raul Grijalva (D) will face in the general election: pastor Gene Chewning, or virulent racist Joseph Sweeney.  Sweeney was the Republicans’ sacrificial lamb in 2006 after defeating the well-funded Mayor of Avondale in the primary, so he’ll probably defeat Chewning as well.  In any case, Grijalva, who’s one of the most liberal Congressmen in the country, will easily win reelection.

AZ-08: Another tight district, as freshman Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords prepares to square off against State Senate President Tim Bee.  No primaries here, and the right-leaning independent who was planning to run dropped out and endorsed Bee.  Bee has a reputation as being somewhat moderate, and he’s well funded, but Giffords is a superstar (albeit a moderate DLC one) and will probably win again.

Predictions:

AZ-01: Kirkpatrick (D) def. Hay (R)

AZ-02: Franks (R) def. Thrasher (D)

AZ-03: Shadegg (R) def. Lord (D)

AZ-04: Pastor (D) def. Karg (R)

AZ-05: Mitchell (D) def. Schweikert (R)

AZ-06: Flake (R) def. Gramazio (D)

AZ-07: Grijalva (D) def. Sweeney (R)

AZ-08: Giffords (D) def. Bee (R)

Net pickup: +1

(Note: I also blog for ProgressiveHistorians.)