Month: September 2008

Let’s hear it.

Feel free to use this thread to discuss tonight’s debate, if that’s your bag.

The Feldman Group for Christine Jennings (9/22-23, likely voters):

Christine Jennings (D): 40

Vern Buchanan (R-inc): 44

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±4.9%)

The last time we saw poll numbers from this race, Buchanan posted an 18-point lead (48-30) in his own internal poll. The Feldman group has a dramatically different result, and also finds that the many, many lawsuits being filed against Buchanan or his business are beginning to take a toll on the incumbent: 78% of voters say they have “heard something” about Buchanan recently, and of those voters, 43% said it made them feel less favorably towards the incumbent, while only 23% say it made them feel more favorable. Additionally, only 39% say that Buchanan deserves re-election.

If this snapshot is accurate, Jennings has a fighting chance to pull off an upset here. I’d like to see it confirmed by another poll, but I’ll take the good news for now.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/22-24, likely voters, 5/20-21):

Gary Trauner (D): 42 (44)

Cynthia Lummis (R): 42 (41)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Here’s our first look in many months at the race for Wyoming’s at large House seat, being vacated by the always-charming Barbara Cubin. The poll shows a tied game between Gary Trauner, who came very close to shocking Cubin in 2006, and former Secretary of State Cynthia Lummis. (The previous poll was taken long before Wyoming’s GOP primary, where Lummis defeated Mark Gordon, who was considered to be the less-divisive pick.)

There are two possible schools of thought on the state of this race: first, this isn’t that good, because Trauner has lost ground from last time even though now it’s confirmed he’s running against Lummis (who, personality-wise, seems to take after Cubin).

On the other hand, it may be good, since this follows in the wake of adding Sarah Palin to the ticket, who plays (or played?) uniquely well in the red states of the West and should have theoretically, via coattails, knocked Trauner out of contention. The same sample shows McCain leading Obama 57-36, still a mighty downdraft for Trauner to fight against, but an indication that Dems are running much better in the Equality State than in 2004 (where Kerry got dismantled 69-29).

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/22-24, likely voters):

Bob Conley (D): 42

Lindsey Graham (R-inc): 51

(MoE: ±4%)

A few days ago I called your attention to Rasmussen’s poll of South Carolina, showing Ron Paul-lovin’ paleo-con “Democrat” Bob Conley within 9 points of Lindsey Graham, as an example of their having gone off the deep end this week.

Well, we may actually have a live one here, as R2K shows a similar 9-point margin. Looks like South Carolinians are feeling pretty tepid about Graham. Sigh… if only a real candidate had decided to jump in for the Dems. However, I have to wonder if Conley is pulling a fair number of votes from the looney-tunes right (which doesn’t like Graham for his occasional flourishes of bipartisanship and rumors about his personal life), which a more normal Dem wouldn’t. R2K has McCain up in SC by a more believable 52-39 (Rasmussen had the presidential race at 51-45).

Ruh-roh. SurveyUSA (9/24-25, likely voters):

Alice Kryzan (D): 37

Chris Lee (R): 48

Jon Powers (WF): 5

Anthony Fumerelle (IP): 3

Undecided: 7

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Fumerelle won’t be on the ballot in November — he was nominated for a judgeship and his line was given to Lee. Powers takes 5% of the vote — not an insignificant number. It’s pretty disappointing that he’s chosen to remain mum rather than endorse the Democratic nominee here.

An earlier DCCC/EMILY’s List poll showed Kryzan leading by a full 10 points, but that poll pegged the partisan breakdown of the district as 33% Dem, 32% GOP. SUSA finds something different: 46% GOP and 34% Dem. According to the the most recent statistics, Republicans have a 37,000-strong voter registration edge in the district.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

(H/T: The Albany Project)

Global Strategy Group for the DCCC (8/17-19, likely voters):

Dan Seals (D): 39

Mark Kirk (R-inc): 46

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Kirk’s latest internal shows him with a monster 22-point lead over Seals, and while these are older numbers, I’m more inclined to buy this picture than Kirk’s lopsided polls which have Democrats and Republicans at near-parity in the 10th.

In the Presidential race, GSG finds that Obama has a 51-36 lead over McCain. As Dan Seals continues to hammer Kirk for railing against the “Obama agenda”, more Democratic-leaning voters should return home in the coming weeks.

I approve of this message:

Mark Kirk attacks me for backing the Obama agenda. Well, you bet I do!

Does anyone doubt that Obama will carry this district by a wide margin? An excellent ad by Dan Seals.

SurveyUSA (9/24-25, likely voters, 6/27-29 in parens):

David Boswell (D): 43 (47)

Brett Guthrie (R): 49 (44)

Undecided: 8 (9)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

After David Boswell posted leads in the last round of SUSA’s polling and in a Garin Hart Yang internal last month, Republican Brett Guthrie has pulled ahead in the latest poll. Having the airwaves to himself for over a month is a likely cause, but the DCCC didn’t do Boswell any favors after their attack ad was pulled by a local station, allowing Guthrie to crow about “dishonesty” from Democrats. Not a great start out of the gates here by the DCCC.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Martin Heinrich (9/22-23, likely voters, 6/29-7/2 in parens):

Martin Heinrich (D): 48 (47)

Darren White (R): 42 (44)

(MoE: ±4.6%)

White and Heinrich have been exchanging blows in the press and in ads recently, and it appears that Heinrich is getting the upper hand. A SurveyUSA poll from a few weeks ago pegged the race at 51-46 for Heinrich, so these numbers look pretty trustworthy.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

Suffolk University (9/21-24, likely voters):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 41

John Sununu (R-inc): 40

Ken Blevens (L): 3

(MoE: ±4%)

We’re getting a deluge of New Hampshire polls now, and we’re getting a wide range of results. Suffolk seems to fall in the ‘we have a real race on our hands’ camp. Throw this on the pile with all the other polls, and it does look like there’s a general tightening trend.

The same sample shows Obama beating McCain 46-45, and governor John Lynch beating Joe Kenney 61 to a pitiable 16.