Month: September 2008

Anzalone-Liszt for Dina Titus (9/21-24, likely voters, 7/23-28 in parens):

Dina Titus (D): 46 (43)

Jon Porter (R-inc): 37 (39)

Other: 6 (10)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

How much trouble is Jon Porter in? Well, just look at the favorable/unfavorable numbers. Titus posts a 50-37 popularity score, while Porter is less loved at 44-41 — his favorables down four and unfavorables up seven since July.

Back in June, Mason-Dixon released a poll showing Porter leading by a mere three points, but perhaps the most important number is this one: since 2006, Democrats have expanded their voter registration lead in Nevada’s 3rd CD from 2,900 voters to 25,445 in August.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

UPDATE: Porter’s own internal (Public Opinion Strategies, 9/23-24) shows him leading Titus by 41-39. Weak.

InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position for the DeSoto Appeal (9/24, likely voters):

Ronnie Musgrove (D): 43

Roger Wicker (R-inc): 48

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±4%)

It’s a one-day sample, so take that for what it’s worth, but it’s in-line with a recent R2K poll that showed the exact same numbers. In that poll, Musgrove was winning African-American voters by 75-7 and losing among white voters by 23-73. InsiderAdvantage paints a somewhat different picture, with Musgrove and Wicker splitting the black vote by 77-20. The article doesn’t share the breakdown of the white vote, but it would have to be higher than 23% for Musgrove in order for the top lines to balance out.

If Wicker earns 20% of the black vote in November, it’s game over for Musgrove (barring some unexpected over-performance among whites), but that would be a truly remarkable performance for Wicker — and I don’t think he’s there yet. (Although perhaps the lack of party ID on the ballot could cut both ways.)

This one remains close (and the DSCC continues to pump in a lot of ads), but it’s hard not to give Wicker a slight edge for now.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

Research 2000 for the Concord Monitor (9/22-24, likely voters):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 50

John Sununu (R-inc): 41

Ken Blevens (L): 2

(MoE: ±4%)

There was some heartburn recently over a funky Rasmussen poll showing Sununu lunging ahead by seven points. Between this poll and yesterday’s UNH’s Granite State Poll that found Shaheen ahead by four points, I think it’s safe to call “outlier” on Rasmussen’s latest.

Research 2000 for the Concord Monitor (9/22-24, likely voters):

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 44

Jeb Bradley (R): 43

(MoE: ±6%)

Paul Hodes (D-inc): 47

Jennifer Horn (R): 34

(MoE: ±6%)

UNH found Bradley leading by 45-42, and Hodes up by 38-26. I trust R2K more than the Granite State Poll, but both pollsters are finding similar spreads here — especially when you factor in the hefty 6% MoE. While I think we can dismiss a GOP internal showing Hodes leading by only 4 points as bunk, it certainly seems that Shea-Porter is in for a tough fight.

Bonus finding: R2K finds that Obama is leading McCain by a 48-44 margin statewide.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/22-24, likely voters):

Jeff Merkley (D): 45

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 40

(MoE: ±4%)

Check out the crosstabs: Merkley is romping among Democrats by a 79-6 margin. Clearly, El Gordo’s “bipartisan” campaign ads haven’t swayed too many Dems — or even Independents, who give Merkley a 43-41 lead. Both candidates don’t have especially high favorables (43-40 for Merkley, and 41-45 for Smith), but Obama’s top of the ticket strength seems to be trickling down. He leads John McSleepy by 53-39.

Earlier in the day, a SUSA poll showed Merkley with a two-point advantage.

A nice pick-up for Kurt Schrader:

State Sen. Frank Morse (R-Albany) crossed party lines and endorsed state Sen. Kurt Schrader (D-Canby) in the race for the 5th Congressional District seat Thursday.

Morse cited his history of having a positive working relationship with Schrader in the Oregon Senate, as well as a sense of trust he has for the Canby lawmaker as his reasons for crossing party lines.

“It’s a pretty easy call for me as a Republican to endorse Kurt Schrader,” Morse said at a press conference in the Oregon State Capitol. “I always like straight shooters, and that’s what I’ve found with Sen. Schrader. I don’t always agree with him, but I do trust him.”

Earlier this summer, Schrader also picked up the endorsement of the Oregon Farm Bureau, a group that normally backs Republicans. It sure seems that “humanitarian” Mike Erickson is unpalatable for a lot of self-respecting Oregon Republicans.

With the crashing of the economy, and the up-coming taxpayer bailout of hundreds upon hundreds of billions of dollars, Americans and Kentuckians need to take a hard look at the root causes of the reversal of budget surpluses into TRILLIONS of dollars of national debt. In Kentucky, one need not look past the failed Republican Congressional delegation of the time, many of which are still serving and running for re-election.

Led by Mitch McConnell, this bunch of Corporate Profiteers never met a Corporate Welfare or de-regulation bill they would not vote for. One need only look back to the Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999, which overturned many of the protections of FDR’s New Deal to find the root of our current woes. While there, one will also find that Kentucky Republicans were unanimous in their support, and failure of leadership.

But there was little dissent in 1999, when Sen. Mitch McConnell and the rest of Kentucky’s congressional delegation voted to deregulate Wall Street banking and investments. They – and most other members of Congress – brushed aside concerns that deregulation could create massive financial institutions that would be “too big to fail,” requiring a government bailout if they started to stagger.

http://www.kentucky.com/210/st…

Of course as always with Kentucky Republicans, their votes garnered them huge dollars in campaign contributions from the very industries taxpayers must now bail out:

The Kentucky delegation went on to collect millions of dollars in combined campaign donations from the financial sector, while the banking, securities and insurance industries merged into the creature that is now collapsing and calling for government aid.

http://www.kentucky.com/210/st…

The numbers are staggering:

McConnell has been individually feted in New York City by major banks, including a 2005 luncheon given in his honor by UBS and Citigroup, which raised at least $60,000 for his campaign fund. Former Sen. Phil Gramm, R-Texas, who sponsored the Wall Street deregulation bill and then left Congress to become an investment banker at UBS, helped organize that event and donated $4,000 to McConnell.

Among others in the Kentucky delegation who voted for Wall Street deregulation in 1999, and who are still in Congress, Bunning got $2.4 million; Rep. Ed Whitfield, R-Hopkinsville, got $697,116; Rep. Ron Lewis, R-Cecilia, got $551,266; and Rep. Hal Rogers, R-Somerset, got $406,765, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Totals are for donations from 1989 to 2008.

http://www.kentucky.com/210/st…

As you can see, Congressman Ed Whitfield was not only tied up in the failure by voting for this bill, but actually was rewarded with $700,000 worth of campaign contributions for his irresponsibility, and failed judgement.

His response would be laughable if it was a joke, and not a $700 billion or more debt for our children and grandchildren to pay off:

A Whitfield spokeswoman likewise noted that her boss was far from alone in supporting the 1999 law, and she said the congressman doubted whether deregulation – as opposed to greed – led to the current meltdown.

“It’s always easy to point fingers and try to place blame when any kind of crisis arises,” Whitfield wrote in a statement. “Addressing our current financial situation and turning our economy around is a difficult challenge we as a nation face and we in Congress must address.”

In the immortal words of mothers everywhere, if everyone else was jumping off a bridge, would you jump off of it too? That IS NOT leadership!! At Ryan for Kentucky, we submit that it was the greed of men like Whitfield, following the leader Mitch McConnell that led to the current meltdown. Their greed caused the de-regulation they profited from, and that went on to crash our economy.

Of course Exxon Eddie doesn’t want us to “point fingers” and “place blame” because he knows he showed horrible leadership and judgement, and profited handsomely to the tune of $700,000 to smear his opponents with. At Ryan for Kentucky, we submit once more that a Congressman who was so tied up with the terrible failure of 1999 has not the vision, judgement, courage, or leadership to “Address our current financial situation and turn our economy around”. This same failed leadership is what created this mess, led by all Kentucky Republicans in 1999, including Exxon Ed Whitfield.

In fact, Exxon Ed Whitfield and the whole Republican delegation lined up firmly behind now disgraced Senator Larry “Foottapper” Craig:

“The Financial Services Modernization Act overhauled the financial services industry by eliminating outdated Depression-era laws that have hampered the industry’s ability to increase its efficiency,” Sen. Larry Craig, R-Idaho, wrote in a 1999 article on behalf of the Senate Republican caucus.

http://www.kentucky.com/210/st…

Is this the kind of leadership we need in Kentucky? Blindly lining up behind corrupt industries and leaders that crash our economy off a cliff? I submit that this debacle brings to light exactly why we need new leadership in Kentucky, including the First Congressional District:

This has left us with a huge opening against Exxon Ed Whitfield in this district. As you can see by his own statement, he knows he is intricately tied into this failure. All we need to do is let these voters know just how dirty his hands are.

Please consider supporting Heather Ryan in Kentucky’s First. With the resources to bring Exxon Eddie’s failed record in crashing the economy to these voters, she will win in a landslide. Voters of this district hate to see their tax dollars wasted, and will hold Exxon Eddie accountable. Please, contribute to expand our Congressional majority with real leadership here:

As of now, this race is on the map!!

September 25, 2008:

Unfair, you say? Voters shouldn’t judge a candidate by his skin color. Maybe, but is it any more unfair than, for example, saying that because McCain and President Bush are both Republicans that a McCain administration would produce a third Bush term? No, it isn’t.

Rasmussen (9/23, likely voters, 9/18 in parentheses)

Kay Hagan (D): 48 (51)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 45 (45)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

I try not to single out particular pollsters for ridicule, but Rasmussen has had one mixed-up crazy week. Nevertheless, their newest poll of the North Carolina Senate race is very much in line with their poll last week of the same race, and other pollsters as well: Hagan is showing a small but sustained lead. Somewhat miraculously, both candidates have favorable ratings over 50%: Dole at 52% and Hagan at 51%.

This is the same sample that gave Obama a 49-47 lead. Obama’s organizing and advertising push in North Carolina seems to be paying off not just for him (as NC is starting to move into undeniable swing-state territory) but downticket as well.