GA-01: Saturate the Market for BIll Gillespie and Dump Jack Kingston

Goal ThermometerJack Kingston isn’t just the goofy wingnut who made Worser on Olbermann. He’s the chief propagandist for the Republican party, in charge of making up the language of divisive politics like “subpoenas are disruptive”, “liberal baloney”, and “Obama isn’t patriotic because he doesn’t wear a flag pin.” All that and he brags about being the most conservative member of Congress, and his voting record bears that out: he gets an F from themiddleclass.org, a C from Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, and a zero from the League of Conservation Voters; worse than Saxby Chambliss!

Much more here about how Kingston uses his goofy persona to hide a much darker side.

Here’s a real chance to get rid of Jack “flag pin” Kingston!

Bill Gillespie:

Here are still more reasons Bill Gillespie can beat Jack Kingston:

All the surrounding GA districts are already Democratic and GA-01 is traditionally, the biggest county is already blue, etc.


A publisher that blankets the district says:

Coastal Empire News, publishers of Savannah Daily News, The Business Report & Journal and Coastal Family Magazine, is endorsing Savannah’s Bill Gillespie (D) for Congress to represent the 1st Congressional District over incumbent Jack Kingston (R).

It is painful to no longer endorse our friend, Jack Kingston. Many of us know Jack and his family personally and cherish their friendship and their public service. Jack Kingston is a good man, personally, but he has never had a viable or credible Democratic opponent to truly consider.

All that and Bill can fly!


Jack Kingston:

  • used to have an advantage as an incumbent: not so much this year of high gas and low retirement, and people are sick of him embarrassing us on TV
  • has more money than Bill, but whenever he uses it he reminds people Bill is running
  • Jack’s main advantage is a lot of people still don’t know Bill is running

Let’s fix that!

TV and newspaper ads in GA-01 are among the cheapest in the country. $3,000 will saturate the market for the last 3 days.

Help oust Jack and elect Bill.

Or follow Jack’s advice, and get married and work longer hours.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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NV-2: New Poll Shows Jill Derby Within the Margin of Error

Jill Derby

Excellent news on the polling front just a couple of days before election day. A new poll of 400 likely voters by Research 2000 for the Reno Gazette-Journal shows Jill Derby closing the gap:

Dean Heller 47%

Jill Derby 44%

MoE +/- 5%

This is the best poll result thus far for the Democrat this campaign season. Earlier Research 2000 polls showed her down by 7 and 5 points, respectively. Two other “polls” by Mason Dixon for the LVRJ showed Heller with a larger lead but are basically worthless because of a ridiculously low sample size.

For an incumbent being below 50 percent is always dangerous and being just three percentage points ahead of his challenger makes Dean Heller very vulnerable. Looks like Paul Begala was quite right on CNN the other day when he called this race “dead even.”

This race is really as close as they get and these final days every single dollar will count. Please help Jill Derby if you can!

More on Jill Derby in this exclusive Q&A with My Silver State.

Cross posted from My Silver State.

Elections in Louisiana???

Can someone help me understand when the election will be in Louisiana?  I’ve seen one calendar that has November 4 as Louisiana’s primary run-off elections with the General Election to be held on December 6.  On others, the General Election will be held on November 4 with the run-off on December 6.  Can someone help me make heads or tails of all this?

AK-SEN and AK-AL: The impact of the late closing time

A few days ago when the senate race was a 1-2 point race, this thread may have been more relevant but now it looks like both Dems will win.

But, Alaska’s polls close a full 2 hours after any other state in the country. So, a lot of Alaskans may go to the polls with one of the candidates, probably Obama, having already reached 270, and I was wondering if you guys thought this might effect turnout, and who this would benefit.

MO-06: Graves Looking Solid in New Poll

SurveyUSA (10/27-28, likely voters, 10/13-14 in parens):

Kay Barnes (D): 36 (40)

Sam Graves (R-inc): 54 (51)

Dave Browning (L): 5 (4)

(MoE: ±4%)

Kay Barnes, the former mayor of Kansas City, was one of the first top-tier recruits by the DCCC in 2007, so this is a genuinely painful polling result to see. I’ve heard whispers in recent days about internal polling also saying that this race has slipped away, and indeed, the DCCC hasn’t made any significant expenditures here in nearly two weeks (although the NRCC is continuing to pour it on, so at least Barnes is doing other candidates a favor by drawing some enemy fire).

Tough breaks — but perhaps this should serve as a reminder for next Tuesday that we can’t win ’em all.

KY-02: Guthrie Posts 10-Point Lead in New SUSA Poll

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (10/27-28, likely voters, 10/15-16 in parens):

David Boswell (D): 43 (42)

Brett Guthrie (R): 53 (51)

Undecided: 4 (7)

(MoE: ±4%)

My friends, this does not look good. National money has been pouring into the district at a furious clip in recent weeks, and it doesn’t seem to have done Boswell much good (remember, back when this race was not engaged, Boswell lead by 3 points in late June). A recent DCCC poll may say otherwise, but it’s getting hard to ignore this string of consistently disappointing SurveyUSA polls.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 62-35 in this district. More details on the poll’s internals are available here (pdf).

My Recommendations for the November 2008 California Ballot Measures

I know this site mainly focuses on Congressional, statewide, and state legislature races, but in California, ballot measures are a big deal and can set examples for the rest of the nation. Thanks to Calitics ( http://www.calitics.com ), I was able to find enough information on the 12 ballot measures to give my recommendations, which are over the flip.

Prop 1A (High Speed Rail): This measure will allow the state to purchase $10 billion in bonds for creating a high speed rail system. The money will also be leveraged to get federal dollars and private investments. For more information, check out the California High-Speed Rail Blog. ( http://cahsr.blogspot.com/ )

My Recommendation: YES!!!

Prop 2 (Farm Animal Conditions): This measure will require farm animals to be able to stand up, turn around, and basically be comfortable in their cages. Despite the protests from Big Agriculture, this measure could level the playing field for small farmers. Here is a cute video from the “Yes On 2” campaign: ( http://uncaged.yesonprop2.com/ )

My Recommendation: Yes

Prop 3 (Children’s Hospital Bonds): This measure would allow the state to sell bonds to provide additional funds for children’s hospitals. Though I don’t like the idea of ballot-box budgeting, this will probably be a very good investment, as the state’s hospitals in general need a lot of work and some could go to ensuring that all county and other public hospitals remain viable.

My Recommendation: Yes

Prop 4 (Parental Notification): The anti-choice jerks are at it again for another encore, after failing in 2005 and 2006. For the third time, we’ve said that we want to make sure that our teenage girls are safe. Like the failed 73 and 85, this measure requires parental notification, which is fine if the teen has a functional, supportive family, but can be dangerous in abusive, dysfunctional families. Unlike 73 and 85, this one allows for a judicial bypass, but can you realistically expect a distressed teenage girl to go through the courts? This one is running close, so get the word out! In addition, this is a great case for reform establishing a limit as to how many times one can bring similar ballot measures to the ballot.

My Recommendation: NO-NO-NO-NO-NO!!!

Prop 5 (Drug Rehab): This would decrease the nonviolent offender prison population by moving them into rehab, and reducing sentences for these nonviolent offenders depending upon their successful completion of rehab program. This is a follow-up to the wildly successful Prop 36 of a few years back, which saved millions of dollars. Unfortunately, Senator Feinstein came out against Prop 5 in a press release that merely rehashes the No on 5 campaign talking points. Let’s be smart, not pseudo-tough.

My Recommendation: Yes

Prop 6 (Gang Measure): This measure increases prison sentences for young gang offenders and would likely cost about a billon dollars per year, which would guaranteed go up since the measure guarantees increases for inflation, and higher prison expenses as a result of new or longer sentences, as well as $500 million for jails for more prisoners. Too much money for far too few results. ( http://www.votenoprop6.com/mn_… )

My Recommendation: NO!

Prop 7 (Renewable Power Standard): This measure is not necessary since there already is a renewable power standard in California thanks to recent anti-global warming legislation. Though this measure would expand those requirements from 20% to 50% by by 2025, plants smaller than 30 megawatts would be excluded when they have been leading the way on our path towards energy independence.

My Recommendation: No

Prop 8 (Anti-Marriage Amendment): Not much to say here, except that the measure would eliminate marriage rights for same-gender couples. Reject bigotry!

My Recommendation: NO, NO, NO, NO, NO!!!

Prop 9 (Victim’s Rights): This measure reduces the frequency of parole hearings and allows victims and their survivors to be present. The OC Register does a great job explaining why you should vote against it ( http://www.votenoprop9.com/ocr… ):

Prop. 9 would place those rights into the state constitution rather than into statutory law, the distinction being that the constitution is much more difficult to change if problems develop. It would also give crime victims and their families the constitutional right to prevent the release of certain documents to criminal defendants or their attorneys, and the right to refuse to be interviewed or provide pretrial testimony or other evidence to a defendant. The constitution would be changed to require judges to take the safety of victims into consideration when granting bail. It would make restitution the first priority when spending any money collected from defendants in the form of fines. It would also extend the time between parole hearings from the current one to five years to three to 15 years.

An interesting note on this measure: it was funded by Henry T. Nicholas III, co-founder and former CEO of Broadcom, who happens to have been indicted for white collar fraud as well as drug charges including accusing “Nicholas of using ecstasy to spike the drinks of industry executives and employees of Broadcom customers.”

My Recommendation: NO!

Prop 10 (Natural Gas Giveaway): This would sell $5 billion worth of bonds to help Californians buy cleaner cars. The problem is that “clean” is defined as using natural gas, and hybrids are not included. It also wouldn’t require that the commercial trucks purchased with the overwhelming majority of these funds stay in the state, and is just a power grab by Swift Boat Liars funder Funder T. Boone Pickens. We do need cleaner fuel, but not by shifting from one fossil fuel (oil) to another (natural gas).

My Recommendation: No

Prop 11 (Redistricting): This measure would give equal power to Democrats and Republicans to draw the maps, and would exclude from the commission anybody who has had any experience relevant to the process, and gives Republicans too much power. It’s opposed by leading minority organizations and the Democratic Party. For more information, see this diary at Calitics: ( http://www.calitics.com/showDi… )

My Recommendation: NO!!!

Prop 12 (Veterans Bond): These things always pass, and are always pretty small. This bond funds a program to help veterans purchase farms and homes.  It’s a decent program, and the bond has passed something like 20 times over the last 100 years.  It likely will again. Despite our concerns over ballot box budgeting, helping out our veterans is a worthwhile cause.

My Recommendation: Yes

VA-05: Tom Perriello–Final Push

Hey guys–

I’m no longer a volunteer for the Perriello campaign–I’m back at school four hundred miles away. But I’m still phonebanking for Tom when I can, and I thought I’d take a moment to make the case for giving Tom a small last-minute contribution to help him send Virgil Goode back to Rocky Mount.

The race is close–if you read SSP, you know that. SurveyUSA, Tom’s internals, Cook, and the “GOP Death List” agree that the race is tight and getting tighter.

Tom’s fundraising has been on par with Virgil’s, and his ground game (EIGHT dedicated field offices!) is stellar. But those things were both true in August, when SurveyUSA showed Tom down 34 points.

So what helped slash Virgil’s massive lead? The campaign went on air with some effective ads that introduced Tom to the voters. People know Virgil–he’s been in office for a decade and his father was a state senator before him. Tom has an incredible rapport with people–and genuinely loves talking about their concerns–but the district is big and he can’t shake everyone’s hand. That’s what the ads are for.

The Perriello campaign is contesting the entire 5th district–places like Appomattox, Farmville, and Bedford–where Democrats haven’t ventured since, well, Virgil Goode was a Democrat. If you take the trouble to show up, people will vote for you–but only if they feel like they know you first.

So help Tom’s campaign keep his awesome ads on the air (in a cheap media market!). He’ll be a great congressman–he’s tireless and compassionate, and has a real track record of helping people from Sierra Leone to Southside Virginia.

Thanks,

Andrew

www.actblue.com/page/andrewforperriello

Barth vs. Capito debate: Anne made us proud

Anne Barth made her supporters proud at the debate tonight with Bush Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito.

For those of us who’ve seen Capito in debates before, it was the usual say one thing here, do something else in Washington D.C.

WEPM broadcast the debate and there will probably be a link later.

WEPM has a story up about the debate with a line in need of clarification:

More than 250 people were in attendance when the candidates for West Virginia’s Second Congressional District faced off last night at Musselman High School in the final of the WEPM and Journal candidate forums for 2008.  Incumbent Congresswoman Shelly Moore Capito (R) and challenger Anne Barth (D) sat down to answer questions from the panel and from the audience.  The debate was moderated by Blue Ridge Community and Technical College President Peter Checkovich.  Crowds lined the streets with signs supporting their candidates prior to the debate and supporters cheered and yelled during the debate itself, a sign of the excitement that has been created as this heated campaign nears a finish.

There were more than 30 people outside of Musselman High School lining the road for Anne Barth.

Six supporters of Capito waved signs about a half mile away at Centra Bank.

It was very telling that Barth’s supporters were at the debate and Capito’s were at a bank where executives have helped fund her campaign.

The ohter tellng thing was before the debate. Before the debate, Anne Barth walked through the auditorium, greeting people, whether wearing her buttons or Capito’s stickers and thanking them for attending while Shelley Moore Capito was huddled with her staff behind the stage hiding from her constituents.

For those of us disappointed by the lack of representation from Capito and why we want to replace her with Anne Barth, the symbolism between the two could not be more apparent.

Capito even mentioned how she meets with people of the district in town halls and then corrected herself and referred to her notorious town hall teleconferences where only pre-selected people are invited to join and where questions are screened as opposed to meeting with all of her constituents.

Capito also claimed she was in the Eastern Panhandle so often that we were probably sick of seeing her. She’s only half right there and it wasn’t the seeing her part. Unless you belong to the country club in Charleston, you probably don’t see Capito.

Capito claimed an ad by the DCCC (not Anne Barth as the WEPM questioner mistakenly said) was a negative attack for pointing out she took campaign contributions from Big Oil. “The insinuation is my vote is for sale,” Capito said. Tom Delay, Mark Foley, Jack Abramoff, and Ted Stevens could argue that Capito should remove the first three words from the preceeding sentence.

Barth, meanwhile, pointed out that the ad is truthful as to Capito’s contributors from Big Oil and that she’s criticized Capito’s votes and not Capito herself, unlike Capito who falsely claims Anne Barth hasn’t paid her taxes. While Anne Barth has focused on the issues and Capito’s voting record, Capito resorts to personal attacks.

“This is the kind of personal attacks people are tired of,” Anne Barth said.

On the Iraq war, Capito also told the same lie she told in 2006.

“I’d like to get out of Iraq, like everyone else, as soon as possible,” Capito claimed, leaving out that every time it has come to a vote, she voted against resolutions to withdraw from Iraq. “I think we need to withdraw. I think we are withdrawing.”

Capito’s in Congress, has voted against withdrawal, and yet she’s uncertain if troops are withdrawing or not from Iraq? She also said timelines “hand our enemy a roadmap to victory” yet now the administration has agreed to a withdrawal timelines she’s for withdrawal? Under her twisted logic, does that now mean that Capito now believess in handing “our enemy a roadmap to victory”? Consistency isn’t something Capito practices because as we’ve seen too often, she says one thing in the district and does another thing in Washington.

Anne Barth had a terrific answer on Iraq, saying that we never should have gone into Iraq that had nothing to do with Sept. 11th and instead should have finished the job in Afghanistan in getting Osama bin Laden.

On taxes, Capito defended her support for tax cuts for the wealthy, saying that the middleclass benefited when the largest cuts went to the rich since they create the jobs. She even conflated the average tax cut, ignoring much of the tax cuts went to the wealthiest 2 percent while the rest of us didn’t see anywhere close to the $2,200 tax cut she claimed. The middleclass didn’t come anywhere close to that. Meanwhile, Anne Barth said it was time for the middleclass to get the larger portion of a tax cut.

After the debate, Capito’s staffers surrounded her to screen her from constituents from coming up to talk to her. Meanwhile Anne Barth worked through the crowd, even taking a question from a man covered in Capito stickers, who asked her about abortion. Anne Barth said she was pro-choice just like Capito. The man was taken aback. “I didn’t know Capito was pro-choice,” he said.

Telling. Voters who don’t know Capito’s record support her. Informed voters love Anne Barth.

NRCC & DCCC Spend Big Today

NRCC BIG Spending Today

$719K against Nick Lampson

$506K against Darcy Burner

$442K against Joe Garcia

$401K against Mark Schauer

$368K against Alan Grayson

$360K against Mary Jo Kilroy

$355K against Nancy Boyda

$278K against Paul Kanjorski

$248K against Victoria Wulsin

$208K against Eric Massa

$208K against Ashwin Madia

DCCC BIG Spending Today

$600K Nick Lampson

$552K Darcy Burner

$388K Kathy Dahlkemper

$284K Glenn Nye

$282K Tom Perriello

$276K Anne Barth

$270K Gary Trauner

$228K Paul Kanjorski

$226K Chris Carney

**Both parties are spending in Reichert’s district.  The surprise is heavy spending by both parties in Lampson’s district.  I think that polling is closer than what we may have come to believe.  

Also looks like the NRCC has thrown Phil English under the bus, yet they’re overlooking Drake, Goode, Shadegg, Wyoming AL, and Capito.  However, the NRCC is not willing to give up on certain to lose Walberg and Kuhl.  They also have come to the rescue of Cheeseburger Keller.  While Grayson may not be the best nominee I don’t see Keller surviving.  The DCCC must increase funding here.  Why not include a double take similar to the Diaz-Balart’s in Miami and include Keller with Feeney.  It would be way effective.

The Boyda race is now wide open.  The DCCC has no choice but to increase funding.  The good thing to see is that the NRCC is sweating over Mario Diaz-Balart and Jean Scmidt.  I expect both will be unemployed next week.