Month: October 2008

IN-09, NH-01, PA-04, WI-08: Frosh Dem Incumbents Lead Comfortably

Roll Call has released a batch of new SurveyUSA House race polls (10/4-5, likely voters) with lots of good news for Democrats. In this post, we’ll look at their numbers for Democratic incumbents. DavidNYC has results for their polls of IL-10, NC-08, and NY-29 here.

IN-09 (9/8-10 in parens):

Baron Hill (D-inc): 53 (50)

Mike Sodrel (R): 38 (39)

Eric Schansberg (L): 7 (5)

(MoE: ±4%)

Sodrel has been on a consistently downward trend ever since SUSA started tracking this race — back in July, he was at 42%. It looks like he picked the wrong year to mount a comeback. Remarkably, though perhaps not surprisingly given the tossup nature of Indiana this year, McCain only leads Obama by 49-47 in this R+7 district. To put that in perspective, Bush crushed Kerry by a 59-40 margin in this CD in 2004.

NH-01:

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 50

Jeb Bradley (R): 41

Bob Kingsbury (L): 3

Peter Bearse (I): 3

(MoE: ±4%)

This is the first poll we’ve seen giving Shea-Porter a clear lead. For what it’s worth, I like SUSA better than I like Research 2000 or the UNH’s flawed Granite State Poll, so these numbers are particularly pleasing. In the Presidential race, Obama is leading McCain by 52-45 here.

PA-04:

Jason Altmire (D-inc): 54

Melissa Hart (R): 42

(MoE: ±4%)

What’s particularly impressive about this number for Altmire is that McCain has a wide lead over Obama in this R+2.6 district: 51-43. That’s similar to the 54-45 margin that Bush carried this district by in 2004, so it doesn’t look like McCain’s “coattails” will cause Altmire too much damage. The only other poll we’ve seen of this race, a Hart internal, gave Altmire a 49-44 lead.

WI-08:

Steve Kagen (D-inc): 54

John Gard (R): 43

(MoE: ±4%)

A much better result than John Gard’s internal polling has been telling us. Special bonus finding: Obama is leading McCain’t by 52-45 in this R+4 district.

SSP’s Competitive Senate Race Ratings (10/6/2008)

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R
NM (Open) AK (Stevens)
CO (Open)
LA (Landrieu)
NH (Sununu)		 NC (Dole)
OR (Smith)		 GA (Chambliss)
KY (McConnell)
MN (Coleman)
MS (Wicker)		 ME (Collins)

Safe D:

     VA (Open)

Races to Watch:  

     NE (Open)

     NJ (Lautenberg)

     OK (Inhofe)

     SC (Graham)

     TX (Cornyn)

Today’s Ratings Changes:

  • Kentucky (McConnell): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

    Thanks, it seems, in large part to the ongoing financial crisis, Kentucky’s senate race has tightened dramatically in the past couple of weeks. SurveyUSA called it a three-point race and Mason-Dixon pegged the spread at just one. Meanwhile, the folks at the Rothenberg Political Report said they saw a third poll which also showed the race a dead heat.

    If anger at Republicans and concerns about the economy don’t abate over the next month, GOP Minority Leader Mitch McConnell may have a serious fight on his hands. While McConnell had a massive $9 million warchest at the end of June, Dem Bruce Lunsford’s personal wealth (and his willingness to dig deep) can balance that out. Indeed, this is one race where we can stay financially competitive without the DSCC having to break the bank.

    It’s hard, in other words, to see the Republicans holding as decisive an advantage as they once held in Kentucky. (Even the presidential numbers have tightened up a bit.) But this is a race that bears watching particularly closely – Rasmussen has already thrown some cold water on it, and the blue bounce may not last. Right now, though, McConnell is sweating in a way that he simply wasn’t last month, hence our decision to move this race.

  • Georgia (Chambliss): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

    As with Kentucky, a trio of recent polls (with three-, two-, and one-point margins respectively) suggests that Georgia’s senate race is tight, almost shockingly so. Our changing views of this race, though, rest on some other, deeper data as well.

    For one, SUSA says that early voters have gone for Dem Jim Martin by a 61-36 margin. At the same time, while the Obama campaign may have fallen short of its goal of registering 500,000 new black voters in Georgia, Nate Silver points out that black registration has soared nonetheless. He also notes that blacks have accounted for 40% of early voters so far, well above even his optimistic (but plausible) estimate that African Americans might compose 30% of the voting electorate in the final analysis.

    Yet our newfound hope for beating the odious Saxby Chambliss is tempered by the fact that, unlike in Kentucky, the DSCC will need to get involved here to seal the deal. Georgia is a big, expensive state, and the DS already has more good targets than it can reasonably handle. Finding a few mil for the Peach State won’t be easy. At the same time, we don’t want to get gulled by those sumptuous-looking early voting numbers. Obama leads 64-35 among early voters, but that can’t be sustainable. (Again, though, Nate suggests a very close top-of-the-ticket finish in Georgia is indeed possible.)

    Nevertheless, as with Kentucky, an upset has become distinctly more likely here than it was just a short while ago, and so we move this race to “Lean Republican.”

    • FL-18, FL-25: Garcia Close, Ileana Under 50

    Carlos McDonald/Telemundo51 (9/27-10/1, likely voters):

    Joe Garcia (D): 41

    Mario Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 43

    Undecided: 16

    (MoE: ±5.7%)

    Both Garcia and Diaz-Balart are scoring roughly an equal amount of support from their own parties (81% of Dems are for Garcia, and 82% of Republicans side with Diaz-Balart), but Independents are breaking for the Democrat by a 44-38 margin. While the margin of error for this one is a bit portly, it’s very close to the results we’ve seen from other pollsters. Research 2000 gave Diaz-Balart a 45-41 edge here a few days before this poll was conducted, and an earlier Bendixen poll from June showed a 44-39 race.

    And here’s the scene in the 18th District, the toughest nut of the South Florida trio:

    Annette Taddeo (D): 35

    Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-inc): 48

    Undecided: 17

    (MoE: ±5.7%)

    Taddeo has a slight edge (39-36) among Independent voters, and this is the first time that Ros-Lehtinen has been under 50 in a poll this year. Bendixen had Taddeo trailing by 27 points in June, and Research 2000 showed a 17-point Ros-Lehtinen lead last week. It’s still a tough race for Taddeo, but these numbers offer some hope. After all, some incumbents who posted bigger leads than this in late September polls ended up feeling some November Pain in 2006.

    UPDATE (David): Telemundo also polled FL-21 (Raul Martinez vs. Lincoln Diaz-Balart) but hasn’t released those numbers yet. However, they have offered the traditional bonus finding: Across all three S. Fla districts, McCain leads Obama 52-39, similar to what we’ve seen in other polls.

    Also note that there’s a discrepancy between the MoEs advertised by Telemundo and the sample sizes they’ve proffered. The individual district polls included just 300 respondents each, which ordinarily means an MoE of 5.7%. Telemundo for some reason has reported this as just a 5% MoE, but that can’t be correct. Similarly, for all three polls (900 respondents), the MoE is higher than the 3% they claim – more like 3.3%.

    Election Roundup – The FINAL 10 States

    President

    McCain has conceded Michigan.  Expect Minnesota, New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania to come next week.

    Therefore, the final states will be:

    New Hampshire – McCain simply won’t concede this one, even though he’s clearly behind.

    Colorado – This state will be fairly close.  It has a large military population in Colorado Springs, yet very liberal areas in Pueblo, Boulder, and Greeley.

    Florida – Cubans in South Florida are reliably Republican, yet expect Obama to take a decent percentage.  Broward and Palm Beach are strong Democratic territory, along with Gainesville, Daytona Beach, and Tallahassee.

    Jacksonville is evenly split since it has a large African-American population, but also a large military population also.  The Panhandle is reliable Republican territory, along with Fort Myers, Melbourne, and Naples.

    Therefore, expect much of the campaigning in the final weeks to be centered in Orlando, Lakeland, Tampa, and Saint Petersburg.  This is the decisive territory for Florida.  The current trend for all these counties is favorable to Democrats, with the exception of Seminole and Lake Counties.

    Missouri – McCain will continue campaigning here, yet I expect Obama will cut back a little to concentrate on the East Coast.

    Saint Louis, Columbia, and Kansas City are the reliable Democratic areas.  Joplin and Springfield (Evangelical Country) are strong Republican.  Obama will only win here if he can bring out African-Americans, labor unions, and college students.  This race may be close, yet I expect McCain may have a slight advantage.

    North Carolina – The state has never been considered competitive, yet the large African-American population and a large population of Northeasterner’s has all of a sudden made North Carolina worth fighting for.

    Raleigh and Durham are the Democratic strongholds.  The inner cities of Greensboro and Charlotte should also favor Obama.  The suburbs of both cities however should favor McCain, along with Asheville and Winston-Salem.  Jacksonville and Fayetteville, areas with military populations, yet African-American populations, should give McCain a slight nod.  The northeastern part of North Carolina (Greenville, Rocky Mount, and Goldsboro) should also be relatively favorable to Obama.  The decisive factor here will be turnout, something which Obama is using to his advantage.

    Indiana – The strong Democratic areas should be Lake and Porter counties (Chicago suburbs), Lafayette, Bloomington, and at least slightly half of Indianapolis.  South Bend may narrowly favor McCain.  Areas favorable to McCain will be downstate (Evansville and New Albany), South Bend, Terre Haute, and Columbus.  The state will be difficult for Obama to carry, yet simply forcing McCain to spend here makes it all worthwhile.

    Nevada – Las Vegas should be strong for Obama and since most of the state’s voters are concentrated in Clark County, McCain will have a difficult time winning here.

    Ohio – If it’s Jobs and the Economy, as it was in Michigan, then McCain is in serious trouble.  Every major city in the state should favor Obama, with the exception of the suburbs of Columbus and Cincinnati.  Dayton and Springfield may be the two cities that prove most challenging, yet Obama should do extremely well in Akron, Cleveland, Youngstown, and Toledo.  I see no way McCain will carry Ohio.  Simply not going to happen in 2008.

    Virginia – The state’s changing demographics has turned a red state purple, expect Texas to be the next one to turn purple.  Northern Virginia is strong Democratic, along with Richmond and Petersburg.  Norfolk and Virginia Beach are strong Republican, yet expect Obama to take significant votes here, largely due to African-Americans.  Roanoke and Lynchburg are most likely favorable to McCain.  Richmond, most of Northern Virginia, and close to half of the Norfolk-Virginia Beach population is good enough for Obama to prevail, absent the rural votes.

    Expect Obama to compete for two other areas which McCain see’s in his column: The Omaha congressional district and Montana.

    Montana is favorable to Democrats in the Indian Reservations and Missoula.  Billings, the largest city, is the lone Republican stronghold.  If McCain is forced to spend here at the last minute, then he’s in deep trouble.

    ID-01: Bill Sali’s “Tales of a Fourth Grade Nothing”

    You’ve got to hand it to GOP Rep. Bill “Brain Fade” Sali — he sure keeps things interesting. Just check out what he had to say in the Sunday edition of the Idaho Statesman’s Voter Guide. Sali and his Democratic opponent, businessman Walt Minnick, were both asked: “What has been a turning point or a challenge in your adult life?” (Emphasis mine.)

    Minnick gave a thoughtful answer about his decision to resign from his job at the Nixon White House during the Watergate Scandal.

    And here’s what Bill Sali had to say:

    Bill Sali was assigned a book report in the fourth grade. Uncharacteristically, he blew it off. “I procrastinated,” Sali said. “When I didn’t get it done, I took an F.” It was the first and last ‘F’ Sali ever got, and it became a transforming experience for the future congressman. From that point on he always was a good student, and while he acknowledged that he dropped some classes in college because he took on too much class load, he never again failed. “It changed my focus,” Sali said in a telephone interview. “It was a turning point for me because I knew I had to be serious about things.”

    Yup, the most formative experience of Sali’s life was flunking that book report in grade school. This might explain a few things.

    NC-Sen: Hagan Leads by 9

    Public Policy Polling (10/4-5, likely voters, 9/27-28 in parens):

    Kay Hagan (D): 49 (46)

    Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 40 (38)

    Christopher Cole (L): 5 (6)

    (MoE: ±2.8%)

    Wow. PPP’s Tom Jensen has more:

    In a state like North Carolina with a large Democratic registration advantage, a Republican candidate has to peel off a lot of voters from the other party to win statewide. But Elizabeth Dole is barely winning more of the Democratic vote- 12%- than Kay Hagan is taking of the Republican vote- 9%. Add in a 44-33 lead for Hagan with independents and it’s the recipe for a near double digit lead for the Democratic challenger.

    Hagan is also making strong in roads in rural North Carolina- where John McCain has a 16 point lead over Barack Obama, Dole has just a five point advantage over Hagan. Our polling, both public and private, has also found that Hagan is playing extremely well with the state’s quickly expanding group of suburban voters. She may well be the standard bearer of the profile of candidate who’s going to be successful statewide in 21st century North Carolina.

    Remarkably, Obama has pulled up to a 50-44 lead over McCain according to the same poll. If Obama wins North Carolina, there is just no chance for Liddy Dole. It’s no small wonder that Freedom’s Crotch is hitting the panic button and dumping $750K in attack ads against Hagan this week.

    ME-Sen: Inching Closer

    Rasmussen (10/2, likely voters, 9/17 in parens):

    Tom Allen (D): 43 (42)

    Susan Collins (R-inc): 53 (55)

    (MoE: ±4.5%)

    The Mellman Group for the DSCC (9/30-10/2, likely voters):

    Tom Allen (D): 41

    Susan Collins (R-inc): 49

    (MoE: ±4%)

    There are no direct trend lines available for the Mellman poll, but the DSCC says that Collins was leading by 15 points in their previous round of polling. While these numbers still aren’t great, they both show why this race isn’t completely off the map.

    Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 52-35 in Maine according to the Mellman Group, and by 51-46 according to Rasmussen.