Month: October 2008

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/30-10/1, likely voters):

Steve Driehaus (D): 46

Steve Chabot (R-inc): 44

Other: 4

(MoE: ±5%)

Very nice numbers for Driehaus; in fact, they’re the mirror image of a recent SurveyUSA poll showing Chabot up by two. One key difference between R2K’s poll and SUSA is their estimation of the African-American vote: SUSA pegged black turnout at 28%, while R2K places it at 30%. This district is 28% black, so that number may or may not be on the optimistic side.

Both polls find Chabot taking about 20% of the African-American vote — a pretty high score for a Republican in this day and age, but also one that could potentially come down as the DCCC moves into full bombardment mode.

In any event, an incumbent sitting in the mid-40s in a year like this is in a dangerous place. It’s no small wonder that the NRCC is spending $2.2 million on this race and MI-07 in an effort to hold the line.

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by a 53-39 margin in this district.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

Myers Research & Strategic Services for Mark Schauer (10/5-6, likely voters, 9/23-24 in parens):

Mark Schauer (D): 46 (42)

Tim Walberg (R-inc): 36 (36)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Could we be seeing a bounce for Schauer after ex-GOP Rep. Joe Schwarz endorsed him last week? It’s not the only bounce for a Democrat in this district: after McCain decided to flip the bird to the entire state of Michigan by withdrawing his campaign from the state, Obama has pulled ahead to a 50-39 lead over McCain here. Maybe that’s a bit optimistic, but there’s no denying that Walberg lost some pretty key infrastructure after McCain pulled out his ground game in Michigan.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

UPDATE: The Politico reports that the NRCC is dropping $2.2 million in ads against Schauer and Steve Driehaus in OH-01. That’s a lot of scrilla — at that rate, they’ll only be able to make concentrated bursts in a relatively small number of districts, and still get outspent by the D-trip.

While everyone was focusing on the fate of the bailout plan this week, the federal government’s debt passed the $10 trillion mark with hardly anyone noticing.  Of course, the bailout plan insures that this debt will climb even higher as there is specific language in the bailout plan authorizing the federal government to raise the debt limit and borrow up to $840 billion to fund the bailout.

————————————————————————————————–

U.S. NATIONAL DEBT CLOCK

The Outstanding Public Debt as of 05 Oct 2008 at 12:45:21 PM GMT is:

$10,156,891,193,312.09

The estimated population of the United States is 304,852,050

so each citizen’s share of this debt is $33,317.19.

The National Debt has continued to increase an average of

$3.08 billion per day since September 28, 2007!

————————————————————————————————–

The working people of the United States should be outraged that the members of Congress passed the bailout bill without addressing a way to fund the cost.  It is bordering on criminal that our elected leaders at the federal level continue to allow this debt to grow ignoring the impact it will have on the future security of our nation.  I have continued to stress as the main theme of my campaign that we must elect leaders who will make fiscal responsibility a top priority.  We must solve this problem now or we will pass it on to our children and grandchildren, leaving this country a weak shell of what it once was.

In a typical campaign year, voters would be looking for the candidates that are spreading the “Happy Days Are Here Again” message.  However, in 2008, unless you are living a severe state of denial, you have to realize that tough times are upon us and tough choices must be made.  I’ve heard my Republican opponent regularly state “I believe our best days are ahead of us.”   The hard facts are people are struggling with higher fuel prices, no health care coverage, higher food prices and higher local taxes because of the failed policies of the last 8 years and the neglect of the problems affecting the middle class.  While they’ve worked to reform welfare for individuals, our government is now passing bailout legislation that amounts to corporate welfare.

The real message voters need to hear is the hard truth.   This country is a mess and tough decisions must be made to turn the country around.   The turn around won’t be a quick and it won’t be easy.  But, if voters do their part and make the right choices on November 4th, we can start the process to bring our country back.  And, in bringing the country back, the emphasis must be on putting the needs of the working people above the desires of corporate America for profits.  

Review of the Past Week on the Campaign Trail:

This past week I was on the road doing interviews with several newspapers from within the 5th district and I also recorded a ½ hour interview that will be broadcast later in October on PCN.  There were also candidate forums this week in Clearfield and Bradford where I had the chance to discuss the issues with my opponents.  Finally, we finished the week with 2 great events.  On Friday in State College Justin Braz and Bill Van Saun arranged an event with some Penn State students so we could talk with them about how important this election is to young voters.   State Rep. Scott Conklin also spoke with the young voters.  

On Saturday we traveled to Clarion to participate in the Autumn Leaf Festival parade.  It was a great event with special guests Franco Harris and his wife Dana on hand representing the Obama campaign.  The people in Clarion were chanting “Franco, Franco” throughout the parade route and it was really encouraging to hear the cheers for the Democratic floats and the enthusiasm for Barack Obama.  Special thanks go out to Clarion County Democratic Chairman Bill Miller for pulling everything together, State Rep. Matt Ellenberger and the Clarion University Young Dems for their work building 2 great floats.

Franco Harris with Clarion University Young Dems

With State Rep Candidate Matt Ellenberger in front of Democratic Float

Bob Myers from Venango County getting autograph from Franco Harris

Talking with Franco Harris

Schedule for the Upcoming Week:

Tuesday — Cameron County Debate – 6:00PM

Wednesday — WJAC Interview – 9:00AM

Thursday — Debate at State College High School [TENTATIVE] – 10:00AM, PSU-DuBois Debate – 6:30PM

Friday — Lycoming County Grange Meet the Candidates Forum – 6:00PM, Dinner with the PSU Young Dems – 8:00PM

Saturday — Renovo Flaming Foliage Parage – 12:00PM, Venango County Democratic Dinner – 7:00PM

FUNDRAISING REMINDER — Keep talking with people about the 5,000 Friends to Flip the Fifth project. We can win the 5th District Congressional District for the first time in 32 years but we need to be organizing our forces heading into the final weeks. The only way to turn this country around is to send people to Washington who will make the tough decisions. The choice in the 5th district is clear. My opponent regularly states that he supports the fiscal policies of the Bush administration AKA “the Bush tax cuts” and will continue them — More of the Same. While I continue to stress that we must balance the budget, built a surplus and pay down the debt.

In order to get the message out to voters we will need to advertise which costs money. Please contact your family and friends and urge them to financially support our campaign as we move into the final weeks. Donations can be made online through www.actblue.com or by direct mail to McCracken for Congress, PO Box 332, Clearfield PA 16830.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

————————————————————————————————–

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

Remember this poll showing Dem Rep. Joe Courtney with a 28-point lead over his GOP opponent, Sean Sullivan?

At the time, Sullivan’s campaign brushed the numbers off, saying that they were confident in their chances this November. Of course — what else are they gonna say?

However, Ted Mann over at The Day makes a hilarious rare find: Sullivan’s own campaign spokesman, Andrew Powaleny, has been writing about how Sullivan’s campaign is a “lost cause” on Twitter:

But at his publicly available page on twitter, the networking site, Andrew Powaleny, the campaign spokesman, wrote a message to a friend, sounding a different tune:

just read a poll that shows my candidate trailing by about 25%, told you it was a lost cause! 06:01 AM September 30, 2008

The friend’s response was sympathetic:

didn’t you ever see Mr. Smith Goes to Washington? “The only causes worth fighting for are the lost ones!” 06:22 AM September 30, 2008

But it didn’t cheer up the spokesman:

No I haven’t!!! I’m going to e-mail you the statement I made to the press trying to explain the numbers, you’ll laugh 08:24 AM September 30, 2008

In an e-mail response, Powaleny assures us that his exchange was an entirely “sarcastic” one. Well, what else is he gonna say? Dude’s gotta put food on the table.

While this is all extremely hilarious, it’s so pathetic that I almost feel sorry for this loser — and for Sullivan’s hapless campaign in general. Almost.

SSP currently rates this race as “Safe Democratic“, and so does Sullivan’s spokesman.

(Hat-tip: CT Local Politics)

Susquehanna Polling and Research for Lou Barletta (10/2, likely voters, 9/22 in parens):

Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 39 (41)

Lou Barletta (R): 47 (45)

(MoE: ±4%)

More brutal numbers for Kanjorski — just take a look at his upside-down favorable and re-elect scores (below the fold). Overall, the numbers are not far off from a recent Franklin & Marshall poll showing Barletta leading by 44-35.

The DCCC and the National Association of Realtors have spent over $1.5 million on shoring up Kanjorski so far this year, and I bet they’re not planning on quitting now. For all their efforts, though, Kanjorski could end up being “the one” on election night.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

Word broke out late last night that the NRCC may be scaling back or pulling out of the MN-03 race, according to Minnestota Public Radio.

I checked the ad buys at WCCO-TV today and found that the National Republican Congressional Committee has canceled a week of ads that were scheduled to run on Republican Erik Paulsen’s behalf.

The public file at WCCO shows that the NRCC cancled 66 spots that were reserved between October 14th and October 20th. The political committee still has $216,450 in time reserved from October 21st to election day on Paulsen’s behalf. The NRCC has also reserved time at KSTP, KMSP and KARE. No word yet on whether the ad buys were scaled back at those stations. The NRCC has been forced to play defense this year so the money reserved for Paulsen may be going to an incumbent in a tough race.

Meanwhile, the NRCC will also run ads on GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann’s behalf. The NRCC has reserved time on Bachmann’s behalf to run between October 20th and election day (at a cost of about $126k) at WCCO.

Still trying to determine if the NRCC money reserved at the other stations is time for Bachman and Paulsen or just Paulsen. They reserved about $1.1 million at the four stations earlier this year.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has reserved $1.9 million in ads at the four stations. The DCCC started running ads on September 16th and have time booked through election day.

As you already know by this ad and this ad, a lot of the DCCC’s efforts are focused on the match-up between DFLer Ashwin Madia and Republican Erik Paulsen in the 3rd.

It’s too soon to say what all this means. It is possible that they are going to let Freedom’s Crotch pick up the slack. Either way, this is not good news for Paulsen.

Over the past couple of days, SSP has shifted its ratings of six competitive races. Here’s a roundup of what we did:

FL-21 (L. Diaz Balart): Lean Republican to Tossup

“Clash of the Titans”.

Those are the words that have been invariably used to describe this hotly-anticipated match-up between GOP Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart and former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez. The mud is beginning to fly fast and furiously, which is to be expected from these two highly-seasoned pols with a long history of personal animus and tension.

Yes, Martinez has baggage from legal troubles in the ’90s, but he’s also a larger than life figure in his hometown of Hialeah, and has an intensely loyal following in that GOP stronghold — as evidenced by many recent endorsements from prominent local Republicans.

The publicly-released polling of this race has been very close: Diaz-Balart led by four points in a June Bendixen poll, and SUSA actually found Martinez leading by two in August. A recent Carlos McDonald poll gives Diaz-Balart a five-point edge, but that’s too close for an incumbent’s comfort. This one is shaping up to be close.

IL-10 (Kirk): Lean Republican to Tossup

Of all the races that have been in SSP’s “Lean Republican” column since March, this one’s addition to the Tossup pile always seemed like an inevitable outcome — it was just a matter of timing.

Two recently-released polls — one from the DCCC and the other from R2K/DailyKos — give GOP Rep. Mark Kirk a slight edge here, but both polls have the incumbent dangerously below 50%, leaving him vulnerable to a late Seals surge in a D+3 district that is set to deliver a big margin for Barack Obama in November. On top of it all, a new SurveyUSA poll is showing Seals leading by 52-44. While it’s possible that that result is overstating things a bit, if there’s one thing we’ve learned in the past few years, it’s that Republicans are getting increasingly poorer at holding Dem-tilting districts. After all, let’s not forget that Seals, a very talented candidate, outperformed his final internal poll during his 2006 race against Kirk by a full 15 points.

While Kirk has a wrongly-perceived “moderate” profile working in his favor, Seals is deftly using Kirk’s past criticism of Obama to his advantage. This race is a tossup.

NJ-03 (Open): Lean Democratic to Tossup

While Democrat John Adler has been a fundraising machine in his race for the open seat of retiring GOP Rep. Jim Saxton, he has yet to show much in the way of polling strength so far. In the internals of Republican Chris Myers and recently-released Zogby and Monmouth polls, Myers has led Adler by close margins. You can say what you like about those pollsters, but the fact that we haven’t seen any Democratic polls of this race seems a bit telling.

While this is a D+3 open seat (albeit one that voted for Bush in 2004), it hasn’t elected a Democrat to the House in over 100 years. While Jersey Democrats seem to have a habit of being underestimated in the polls, and it still would be surprising if Myers was the ultimate victor in November, it’s hard to give Adler a clear edge here for now.

NV-02 (Heller): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

After Dean Heller beat Democrat Jill Derby in the open seat race for this R+8 district in 2006, many figured a rematch would be fruitless for Democrats here. However, several factors are making this contest interesting, the most glaring being the dramatic change in the district’s voter pool.

By the end of 2006, registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats by 171,874 to 124,008 in this district. (Bear in mind that Derby lost here by under 13,000 votes that year.) The most recent figures listed with the Nevada SoS are significantly different; since 2006, Republicans have added under 4000 new voters to the rolls here, while Democrats have picked up nearly 26,000. That’s a potentially big group of voters who simply were not in play for Derby two years ago.

A recent Research 2000 poll from August gave Heller a mere 47-42 lead over Derby, and private numbers haven’t been especially strong for Heller, either. While Heller retains a clear edge, an upset feels a bit more than just distantly possible in this district.

NY-29 (Kuhl): Lean Republican to Tossup

GOP Rep. “Shotgun” Randy Kuhl faced a close race from Democrat Eric Massa here in 2006, ultimately winning by only 6,000 votes despite heavy assistance from the NRCC and no DCCC response.

Since then, Kuhl hasn’t exactly been showing much fire in the belly. He was dogged by retirement rumors earlier this year, and has consistently posted sluggish fundraising numbers, being outraised by Massa since the start of the cycle. And don’t forget his response to debate requests from community leaders and local media outfits last month:

“At this point we haven’t agreed to any. We’ve taken the position that I’ve been real busy.”

While this is an R+5 Appalachian-flavored district, it’s facing tough economic times and that should make for a volatile race for Kuhl. Two recent polls, one by the Benenson Strategy Group for the DCCC and another by SurveyUSA, have given Massa the lead here. This looks set to be the most challenging race of Kuhl’s career.

OH-01 (Chabot): Lean Republican to Tossup

GOP Rep. Steve Chabot has been a perennial target for Democrats in this Cincinnati-based district, but this year’s conditions appear to be the most treacherous.

A recent SurveyUSA poll gave Chabot a two-point lead over his Democratic opponent, state Rep. Steve Driehaus. Moreover, Chabot is particularly at-risk by Barack Obama’s strong push in this 28% African-American district. That same SurveyUSA poll gave Obama a 52-43 lead, a considerable improvement over John Kerry’s 49-51 loss here in 2004.

The big Democratic push at the top of the ticket by Obama seems set to give Chabot his biggest test in years.

Safe D:

     VA (Open)

Races to Watch:  

     NE (Open)

     NJ (Lautenberg)

     OK (Inhofe)

     SC (Graham)

     TX (Cornyn)

Today’s Ratings Changes:

Kentucky (McConnell): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Thanks, it seems, in large part to the ongoing financial crisis, Kentucky’s senate race has tightened dramatically in the past couple of weeks. SurveyUSA called it a three-point race and Mason-Dixon pegged the spread at just one. Meanwhile, the folks at the Rothenberg Political Report said they saw a third poll which also showed the race a dead heat.

If anger at Republicans and concerns about the economy don’t abate over the next month, GOP Minority Leader Mitch McConnell may have a serious fight on his hands. While McConnell had a massive $9 million warchest at the end of June, Dem Bruce Lunsford’s personal wealth (and his willingness to dig deep) can balance that out. Indeed, this is one race where we can stay financially competitive without the DSCC having to break the bank.

It’s hard, in other words, to see the Republicans holding as decisive an advantage as they once held in Kentucky. (Even the presidential numbers have tightened up a bit.) But this is a race that bears watching particularly closely – Rasmussen has already thrown some cold water on it, and the blue bounce may not last. Right now, though, McConnell is sweating in a way that he simply wasn’t last month, hence our decision to move this race.

Georgia (Chambliss): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

As with Kentucky, a trio of recent polls (with three-, two-, and one-point margins respectively) suggests that Georgia’s senate race is tight, almost shockingly so. Our changing views of this race, though, rest on some other, deeper data as well.

For one, SUSA says that early voters have gone for Dem Jim Martin by a 61-36 margin. At the same time, while the Obama campaign may have fallen short of its goal of registering 500,000 new black voters in Georgia, Nate Silver points out that black registration has soared nonetheless. He also notes that blacks have accounted for 40% of early voters so far, well above even his optimistic (but plausible) estimate that African Americans might compose 30% of the voting electorate in the final analysis.

Yet our newfound hope for beating the odious Saxby Chambliss is tempered by the fact that, unlike in Kentucky, the DSCC will need to get involved here to seal the deal. Georgia is a big, expensive state, and the DS already has more good targets than it can reasonably handle. Finding a few mil for the Peach State won’t be easy. At the same time, we don’t want to get gulled by those sumptuous-looking early voting numbers. Obama leads 64-35 among early voters, but that can’t be sustainable. (Again, though, Nate suggests a very close top-of-the-ticket finish in Georgia is indeed possible.)

Nevertheless, as with Kentucky, an upset has become distinctly more likely here than it was just a short while ago, and so we move this race to “Lean Republican.”

Carlos McDonald/Telemundo51 (9/27-10/1, likely voters):

Raul Martinez (D): 43

Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 48

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±5.7%)

One thing from the crosstabs doesn’t jive: Diaz-Balart is leading Martinez by 48-44 among men, but apparently Martinez has a 49-43 lead among women. It makes no sense at all for Diaz-Balart to have a five point lead with a breakdown like that, so I think it’s reasonable to conclude that Telemundo51 must have accidentally flipped the female numbers between the two candidates.

The ethnic split also pretty much tells the story: Cuban-Americans favor Diaz-Balart by 61-30 while non-Cuban Hispanics give Martinez a 53-37 edge. Whites and African-Americans favor Martinez by 47-39.

This is shaping up to be a close one.

SurveyUSA just released a batch of polls undertaken on behalf of Roll Call which tested seven rematches from 2006. Three of them covered races which feature Democratic challengers who came heartbreaking close to victory last time. The news looks very, very good all around. (Full polling summary available as PDF. James’s roundup of the Dem incumbent polls is here.)

First up, IL-10 (10/04-05, likely voters, no trendlines):

Dan Seals (D): 52

Mark Kirk (R-inc): 44

Undecided: 4

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Bonus finding: Obama romps here, 62-36. Fuckin’ A.

Next, NC-08 (10/04-05, likely voters, no trendlines):

Larry Kissell (D): 49

Robin Hayes (R-inc): 41

Thomas Hill (L): 6

Undecided: 4

(MoE: ±4%)

Bonus finding: Obama 53, McCain 44. Remember, Bush won this district 54-45 in 2004.

And finally, NY-29 (10/04-05, likely voters, no trendlines):

Eric Massa (D): 51

Randy “Shotgun” Kuhl (R-inc): 44

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Bonus finding: Obama leads 49-47, and this ain’t exactly considered the heart of Obama country.

All in all, some awesome results for Team Blue. A bunch of Republican campaigns are going to have seriously miserable days tomorrow. And just think – Marky Mark “Capt.” Kirk was kvetching like little kid today about poll which showed him six points ahead. Can’t wait to see how he reacts to a survey which has him eight behind. Joy!