SSP House Ratings Changes: 10/6

“Clash of the Titans”.

Those are the words that have been invariably used to describe this hotly-anticipated match-up between GOP Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart and former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez. The mud is beginning to fly fast and furiously, which is to be expected from these two highly-seasoned pols with a long history of personal animus and tension.

Yes, Martinez has baggage from legal troubles in the ’90s, but he’s also a larger than life figure in his hometown of Hialeah, and has an intensely loyal following in that GOP stronghold — as evidenced by many recent endorsements from prominent local Republicans.

The publicly-released polling of this race has been very close: Diaz-Balart led by four points in a June Bendixen poll, and SUSA actually found Martinez leading by two in August. A recent Carlos McDonald poll gives Diaz-Balart a five-point edge, but that’s too close for an incumbent’s comfort. This one is shaping up to be close.

Of all the races that have been in SSP’s “Lean Republican” column since March, this one’s addition to the Tossup pile always seemed like an inevitable outcome — it was just a matter of timing.

Two recently-released polls — one from the DCCC and the other from R2K/DailyKos — give GOP Rep. Mark Kirk a slight edge here, but both polls have the incumbent dangerously below 50%, leaving him vulnerable to a late Seals surge in a D+3 district that is set to deliver a big margin for Barack Obama in November. On top of it all, a new SurveyUSA poll is showing Seals leading by 52-44. While it’s possible that that result is overstating things a bit, if there’s one thing we’ve learned in the past few years, it’s that Republicans are getting increasingly poorer at holding Dem-tilting districts. After all, let’s not forget that Seals, a very talented candidate, outperformed his final internal poll during his 2006 race against Kirk by a full 15 points.

While Kirk has a wrongly-perceived “moderate” profile working in his favor, Seals is deftly using Kirk’s past criticism of Obama to his advantage. This race is a tossup.

While Democrat John Adler has been a fundraising machine in his race for the open seat of retiring GOP Rep. Jim Saxton, he has yet to show much in the way of polling strength so far. In the internals of Republican Chris Myers and recently-released Zogby and Monmouth polls, Myers has led Adler by close margins. You can say what you like about those pollsters, but the fact that we haven’t seen any Democratic polls of this race seems a bit telling.

While this is a D+3 open seat (albeit one that voted for Bush in 2004), it hasn’t elected a Democrat to the House in over 100 years. While Jersey Democrats seem to have a habit of being underestimated in the polls, and it still would be surprising if Myers was the ultimate victor in November, it’s hard to give Adler a clear edge here for now.

After Dean Heller beat Democrat Jill Derby in the open seat race for this R+8 district in 2006, many figured a rematch would be fruitless for Democrats here. However, several factors are making this contest interesting, the most glaring being the dramatic change in the district’s voter pool.

By the end of 2006, registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats by 171,874 to 124,008 in this district. (Bear in mind that Derby lost here by under 13,000 votes that year.) The most recent figures listed with the Nevada SoS are significantly different; since 2006, Republicans have added under 4000 new voters to the rolls here, while Democrats have picked up nearly 26,000. That’s a potentially big group of voters who simply were not in play for Derby two years ago.

A recent Research 2000 poll from August gave Heller a mere 47-42 lead over Derby, and private numbers haven’t been especially strong for Heller, either. While Heller retains a clear edge, an upset feels a bit more than just distantly possible in this district.

GOP Rep. “Shotgun” Randy Kuhl faced a close race from Democrat Eric Massa here in 2006, ultimately winning by only 6,000 votes despite heavy assistance from the NRCC and no DCCC response.

Since then, Kuhl hasn’t exactly been showing much fire in the belly. He was dogged by retirement rumors earlier this year, and has consistently posted sluggish fundraising numbers, being outraised by Massa since the start of the cycle. And don’t forget his response to debate requests from community leaders and local media outfits last month:

“At this point we haven’t agreed to any. We’ve taken the position that I’ve been real busy.”

While this is an R+5 Appalachian-flavored district, it’s facing tough economic times and that should make for a volatile race for Kuhl. Two recent polls, one by the Benenson Strategy Group for the DCCC and another by SurveyUSA, have given Massa the lead here. This looks set to be the most challenging race of Kuhl’s career.

GOP Rep. Steve Chabot has been a perennial target for Democrats in this Cincinnati-based district, but this year’s conditions appear to be the most treacherous.

A recent SurveyUSA poll gave Chabot a two-point lead over his Democratic opponent, state Rep. Steve Driehaus. Moreover, Chabot is particularly at-risk by Barack Obama’s strong push in this 28% African-American district. That same SurveyUSA poll gave Obama a 52-43 lead, a considerable improvement over John Kerry’s 49-51 loss here in 2004.

The big Democratic push at the top of the ticket by Obama seems set to give Chabot his biggest test in years.