NRCC Secures $8 Million Loan

You knew this was going to happen:

The National Republican Congressional Committee, trailing its Democratic counterpart considerably in cash on hand, has secured an $8 million loan to spend on House races during the last few weeks of the campaign, according to sources.

The NRCC reported $14.4 million in cash on hand as of Aug. 31, compared to $54 million in the bank for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. As it did last cycle, the NRCC is procuring its loan from Wachovia Bank, sources confirmed.

The NRCC’s $8 million loan would appear to push the committee’s cash on hand over the $20 million mark, depending on how much money it raised and spent in September. Last month’s numbers for both the NRCC and DCCC are not due to be publicized until later this month.

With this new loan, the NRCC is still going to be outspent, just not quite as badly as before. I hope this inspires members of the caucus to pay their dues, but also, the DCCC should strongly consider taking out a sizable loan of their own. Playing fields ripe with this many opportunities don’t come along every cycle.

CA-03: Progressive Democrat Dr. Bill Durston in Dead Heat with Incumbent Lungren

Dr. Bill Durston, a progressive Democrat running for Congress in California’s 3rd Congressional District has just released a poll that shows that he is in a dead heat against the Republican incumbent, Dan Lungren.

From an email sent to Durston for Congress supporters on Tuesday, October 7th:

We’ve just received great news from a poll of 500 likely voters conducted by the respected polling firm, Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, and Associates. Dr. Bill Durston is in a statistical dead heat with Dan Lungren in California’s 3rd Congressional District!

When voters were asked who they would vote for if they were to vote today, 33% chose Lungren, 30%, chose Bill, 7% chose another candidate, and 30% were undecided. With a margin of error of 4%, the differences between Bill and Lungren were not statistically significant.

After hearing a positive profile about both Lungren and Bill, the tallies were even closer – 39% for Lungren and 38% for Bill. After hearing about some of Lungren’s many shortcomings, including his Hawaii vacation paid for by special interests, his allegiance to the Bush-Cheney administration, and his fondness for taking money from Big Oil, voters chose Bill over Lungren by a margin of 43% to 34%, a difference which is highly statistically significant.

This news should bring more attention to the race for this seat. David Dayen from the Calitics blog wrote:

This could be a good time for outside groups to jump in.  CA-03 is one of those under-the-radar seats nationwide that is very, very winnable, and a late push could easily put Durston over the top.  Furthermore, he’s a solid progressive Democrat who supports single-payer.

Once the voters of the 3rd Congressional District learn that Dr. Bill Durston is a decorated Marine combat Vietnam veteran and an emergency room physician, who has served both the country and his community, they will vote for him.  They are even more likely to vote for Bill when they learn that their current Representative, career politician and carpet-bagger Dan Lungren, cares more about the big money corporate special interests than he does about the people of his district.  

Hopefully, once the voters hear about some of Lungren’s shortcomings, Durston will take the lead.

With your help, we will prove the politicos wrong and put Bill Durston into office!

DCCC, NRCC Spend $8 Million in 40 House Races

The spending was a bit lopsided, though.

Here are the latest Independent Expenditures filed tonight by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee. In total, it was a $7.9 million day for the Republican and Democratic groups, and the biggest single-day money dump by the DCCC so far this cycle.







































































































































































































































































































District Incumbent Group Expenditure
AK-AL Young DCCC $777,254
AL-02 Open DCCC $102,967
AL-02 Open NRCC $70,839
AL-05 Open DCCC $79,598
AZ-03 Shadegg DCCC $286,798
AZ-05 Mitchell DCCC $232,933
AZ-08 Giffords DCCC $96,708
CT-04 Shays DCCC $142,366
FL-16 Mahoney DCCC $183,445
FL-24 Feeney DCCC $229,313
IL-10 Kirk DCCC $59,508
IL-11 Open DCCC $40,953
IN-09 Hill DCCC $173,149
KY-02 Open DCCC $142,884
LA-06 Cazayoux DCCC $146,186
MD-01 Open DCCC $210,174
MI-07 Walberg DCCC $139,252
MI-07 Walberg NRCC $202,070
MI-09 Knollenberg DCCC $234,365
MN-03 Open DCCC $278,785
MO-06 Graves DCCC $158,137
MO-09 Open DCCC $106,008
MS-01 Childers DCCC $2,300
NC-08 Hayes DCCC $268,785
NH-01 Shea-Porter DCCC $341,807
NJ-03 Open DCCC $93,876
NJ-07 Open DCCC $116,541
NM-01 Open DCCC $174,779
NM-02 Open DCCC $204,415
NV-03 Porter DCCC $215,997
NY-26 Open DCCC $239,781
OH-01 Chabot DCCC $242,784
OH-01 Chabot NRCC $333,652
OH-15 Open DCCC $206,084
OH-15 Open NRCC $11,426
OH-16 Open DCCC $198,729
PA-03 English DCCC $135,751
PA-03 English NRCC $97,175
PA-10 Carney DCCC $168,338
PA-11 Kanjorski DCCC $157,192
TX-23 Rodriguez DCCC $98,874
VA-02 Drake DCCC $173,724
VA-11 Open DCCC $103,831
WA-08 Reichert DCCC $19,053
WI-08 Kagen DCCC $104,760
WI-08 Kagen NRCC $98,900
Total Blue $7,088,184
Total Red     $814,061

For more details on these and other expenditures, please consult our Independent Expenditure Tracker.

Of particular note is the titanic DCCC expenditure in Alaska against Don Young. Alaska is a cheap media market, so this must represent several weeks worth of ad time — it could possibly be a saturation buy for the entire month.

All told, the DCCC spent money in 41 districts tonight, while the NRCC is going for concentrated bursts in just a limited number. It seems that they’re going for a strategy of holding a line around a few select races rather than try to keep up with the DCCC across the board — which is no surprise, given their extraordinarily weak cash-on-hand ($14.4 million as of September 1st).

Poll Roundup

There’s been a bunch of polls released over the past couple of days that we haven’t gotten around to blogging yet. Let’s blast through ’em all in one post (trendlines in parens):

  • IN-Gov (Research 2000): Daniels 49 (47), Long Thompson 45 (46)
  • NH-Gov (Saint Anselm College): Lynch 73, Kenney 7 (!)
  • NH-01 (Saint Anselm College): Shea-Porter 42, Bradley 35
  • NH-02 (Saint Anselm College): Hodes 35, Horn 18
  • NJ-03 (Monmouth): Adler 41, Myers 44
  • NM-Sen (Research & Polling): Udall 51, Pearce 36
  • NM-01 (Research & Polling): Heinrich 43, White 41
  • OK-Sen (TVPoll): Inhofe 53 (56), Rice 40 (37)

All yours.

NC-Sen, NC-Gov: SUSA Polls Show Close Races

SurveyUSA (10/5-7, likely voters, 9/6-8 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 43 (40)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 44 (48)

Chris Cole (L): 7 (7)

(MoE: ±4%)

SurveyUSA has been noticeably friendlier to Dole than most other pollsters in this state, and this release is no exception — it’s the first poll in several weeks to give Dole an edge (albeit an extremely marginal one). The important thing to note is the trend line, and it’s favoring Hagan.

NC-Gov:

Bev Perdue (D): 45 (41)

Pat McCrory (R): 46 (49)

Mike Munger (L): 5 (5)

(MoE: ±4%)

No surprise: this race is extremely close. A PPP poll released earlier today gave Perdue a 3-point lead, so either result is plausible.

And in the Presidential race, McCain leads Obama by 49-46, that’s down from the ridiculous 58-38 lead that McCain posted in SUSA’s September poll.

Wrath of the 3Q Fundraising Reports Thread

The trickle continues.

OR-Sen:

     Jeff Merkley (D): >$2 million raised (via press release)

TX-Sen:

     John Cornyn (R-inc): $1.86 million raised; $7 million CoH

     Rick Noriega (D): >$1 million raised

IL-10:

     Mark Kirk (R-inc): >$850K raised

     Dan Seals (D): >$700K raised

NM-02:

     Harry Teague (D): $596K raised + $500K personal loan; $147K CoH

NV-02:

     Jill Derby (D): “just under” $400K raised; $837K CTD

NY-29:

     Eric Massa (D): $462K raised

Previous threads:

3Q Fundraising Reports Thread

Report fromt the Buckeye State

In Ohio, the question is:

Are you better off than you were eight years ago?

Ohio is one of the great masterworks of gerrymandering, quietly piling up undue power for the GOP on a scale with few others.

If Ohio is a pinnacle of gerrymandering, OH-01 and OH-02 are the piece de la resistance, in that they take what ought to be an urban Democratic stronghold, and instead, by banking on lingering “good ole boy” voting trends among low income voters and by CAREFULLY slicing up Cinci and its burbs: Viólá!! They get control of BOTH OH-01 AND OH-02 when they should, at best, control one or the other.

As long as the GOP has an incumbent that is anything better than “still breathing” and not under federal indictment, both Districts should be walk overs.

But that’s where “Mean Jean” Schmidt enters –stage far, far right. The evangelical quasi-cons within the GOP thought that this was their district to elect a real wing-bat. And in 2004 in Ohio, we hit a real low point.

But then in 2006, the tide turned in Ohio. And Foul Mouth Evil Mean Jean, just SQUEEKED past Wulsin.

Unfortunately,this year, Wulsin faced a primary challenge from a candidate who was a wealthy and self funded recent GOP convert. He basically tried to “swiftboat” Wulsin with accusations against Vic that have been found to be baseless.

But for whatever reason, this rematch just doesn’t seem to be going anywhere. Polls show absolutely conflicting numbers on the OH-02 race. Having lived through a recent high target House race, I think people might be burned out. On our side, we’re fired up about Obama, but if you’re not, the alternative they’re stuck with is an OLD GEEZER, complete with drug addicted trophy wife (who inherited a BUNDLE.)

And there are some demographics where that just doesn’t fly. It is perfectly reasonable to assume that the Obama candidacy will boost the Cinci area AA vote. The big question is “By how much?” And what effect has more open and accessible voting had on low income voters spread across OH-01 and OH-02 and white ethnic groups? If there is an overall increase in AA and/or low income voters (especially young ones) are they connecting with Driehaus and/or Wulsin? What really sends the poll numbers swinging is statical changes in the definition of “likely voter.”

Translated: the ground game will be everything. There’s significant undecideds and lots of volatility.

I think that the deciding factor will be old fashioned door-to-door retail politics among the area’s poor neighborhoods, across all ethnic groups. There could be potentially a LOT of likely Obama voters if the door to door campaign is effective.

If there is even a modest drop off in lock step evangelical tin foil hat support for the GOP, then, combined with the stellar work of new Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, that could result in a 3-5 point swing in net voting JUST in changes within the pool of voters.

“O’Biden” could be just the ticket to have real coattails in some areas.

Palin was created to lock-in the very culturally conservative voters that were ALREADY likely to vote GOP. They may grouse during primary season, but come the general election, nothing will dissuade some of these people from voting GOP. But you have to contrast that with the Shrub’s ‘all time ever’ low poll numbers. There’s a friction between conservative voting tendencies vs. a guy who is pretty much REVILED throughout the country.

What’s an incumbent Congresscritter’s best campaign schtick? Why landing Air Force One, of course. But not this year. Oh, no. That’s the LAST thing that incumbent GOP Reps want this year is to see the Shrub show his face… unless of course, it’s an invitation only, thousand dollar a plate dinner.

If the fortunes of the GOP continue to slide toward oblivion (Think: Hoover) And if the Big Mo’ swings our way, convincing low income white male voters to go ahead and vote O’Bama, the GOP is sunk and we MIGHT flip anywhere from three to six seats in Ohio. In order: Boccieri, Kilroy, Driehaus, Wulsin or O’Niell, and Neuhardt.

Somehow, we need to distribute the video and audio of Ralph Stanley endorsing Obama to radio, TV stations and local blogs in Southern Ohio. If I were Driehaus, I would be working FEVERISHLY to get Ralph into the District to appear at a rally.

NC-Gov: Perdue Regains Ground

PPP (10/4-5, likely voters, 9/28-29 in parens):

Bev Perdue (D): 46 (41)

Pat McCrory (R): 43 (44)

Michael Munger (L): 4 (5)

(MoE: ±2.8%)

After losing her lead in PPP’s poll last week (the pollster who has usually been most favorable to her), Democratic Lt. Governor Bev Perdue slips back into the lead in the race for North Carolina’s open gubernatorial seat. We could be seeing more lifting of all Democratic boats in the wake of financial chaos (especially the takeover of NC-based Wachovia). Or, bearing in mind that this same sample gave Obama a 6-point lead and Kay Hagan a jaw-dropping 9-point lead, PPP might have had a particularly Dem-favorable sample this week.

PPP also polled some of the races for North Carolina’s Council of State. Democrats Beth Wood and Elaine Marshall lead their races for Auditor and Secretary of State, respectively, by rather comfortable margins, while Ronnie Ansley trails Republican Steve Troxler by 2 in the Ag Commissioner race.

AK-Sen: Stevens Inches Back Ahead

Rasmussen (10/6, likely voters, 9/9 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 48 (48)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 49 (46)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Ruh-roh. This poll was taken on the same day that some damaging phone conversations were aired in court — probably not enough time for that piece of news to sink in. However, it does reflect a worrying trend.

I’ve been speculating that the DSCC’s decision to launch attack ads against Stevens is having some perverse consequences in a state unfriendly to outsiders (especially Democratic ones). It’s only a hunch, but just ask the Club For Growth how their moneynuke against Don Young ended up doing.

In short: I never underestimate the tendency of Republicans to rally around their own. After all, Stevens is still liked by a majority of voters: 54% have a favorable opinion of him, while 44% have an unfavorable opinion. Begich is still cleaner, at 59-36, but those top lines give me pause.

I believe that Ivan Moore should have a new poll of this race out in the next couple of days, so I’m looking forward to seeing what his numbers show.

OH-16: Boccieri Posts a Big Lead

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/30-10/1, likely voters):

John Boccieri (D): 48

Kirk Schuring (R): 38

Other: 4

(MoE: ±5%)

Now that’s a result that I can believe in, my friends, and it strongly corroborates a recent SUSA poll showing Boccieri ahead by 49-41.

This Canton-based district has been drifting Democratic in recent cycles, going from an 11-point Bush margin in 2000 to a 54-46 Bush result four years later. This poll finds that the trend is continuing, showing Obama leading McCain by 49-46 (SUSA pegged McCain leading by two in mid-September).

While it’s too early to pop the champagne corks just yet, it’s hard not to feel good about this race.