Month: October 2008

For the previous few weeks, it seemed like Darcy Burner had the TV airwaves in Washington’s Eighth District pretty much to herself, frequently running this ad calling attention to his no-bill-passing, 401st-out-of-439th-in-effectiveness-rating ways. With Republican incumbent Dave Reichert trailing in the money department, and the NRCC trying to spin dozens of plates elsewhere, Burner was free to advertise with impunity.

Well, she’s got some company now, as business front groups step in to fill the void left by the NRCC and Reichert’s own dwindling cash. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is spending $156,000 to air TV spots starting this week, on top of a $40,000 radio ad buy. (But wait: that’s not all! Next week, the National Federation of Independent Business is weighing in with another $219,000 television buy.)

Intervention by the Chamber in Washington politics isn’t unusual; in 2004, the Chamber plowed $1.5 million into the Washington Attorney General’s race, attacking Democratic candidate Deborah Senn (one of their Public Enemies No. 1, based on her slash-and-burn anti-corporate tactics as the state’s Insurance Commissioner). The Chamber also paid for pro-Reichert ads in 2006 (including some that had to be pulled for containing factual misrepres… um, well, lies).

Here’s the new Reichert spot that’s moving into heavy rotation, complete with the ritual invocation of “higher taxes”:

UPDATE: Burner is set to debut not one but two new TV spots of her own: here and here.

Crossposted on Daily Kos and Blue Jersey

Last night, I joined a rally of Lobbyists for Republican Scott Garrett, who gathered to thank Garrett for supporting the financial industry that has run our economy into the ground. Scott Garrett, who represents New Jersey’s fifth Congressional district, doesn’t just accept campaign donations and personal loans from the financial giants that caused our current economic crisis – he hired a former Countrywide lobbyist as his chief of staff. Garrett is among the nation’s strongest supporters for deregulation of the financial industry that puts profit before people struggling thanks to today’s economic crisis.

More and pictures after the jump…

My name is Erica, and this week I started working on the Dennis Shulman for Congress campaign. With ‘Lobbyists for Scott Garrett,’ our campaign is highlighting Garrett’s ties to both the housing crisis and the special interest culture of corruption. As a member of the House Financial Services Committee and Housing Subcommittee, Garrett is unduly influenced by the industry he is supposed to regulate. This week, the Shulman campaign released a new ad calling on voters to fire Scott Garrett for letting the greed and speculation run rampant under his watch.

See the ad here – Fire Scott Garrett

Shulman for Congress is also underscoring Scott Garrett’s record as one of the staunchest conservatives in Congress. By the end of 2006, the American Conservative Union had only given a “perfect” score of 100 to two members of Congress for their lifetime voting record – and Scott Garrett was one of them. Yet the district he represents, a politically moderate swath of suburban New Jersey – is nowhere near to the far-right views Garrett pushes in Washington. Voters here are looking for leadership to get our economy going again, work towards alternative energy solutions, and bring an end to the war in Iraq.

Our campaign isn’t afraid to take the fight to Scott Garrett and expose his corruption. We recently launched several websites to highlight Garrett’s atrocious record-including his support for Big Oil, his refusal to acknowledge scientific evidence for global warming, and his opposition to a woman’s right to choose, even for victims of rape or incest.



Garrett Caused the Crash

Scott Garrett and the predatory lenders are a case study in Washington’s corrupt special interest culture. Garrett has accepted more than three quarters of a million dollars from the financial industries he is supposed to oversee in Washington, and put his taxpayer-funded office in the hands of a chief of staff who had lobbied for Countrywide and Washington Mutual.

Oilmen for Garrett

Scott Garrett has voted to subsidize Big Oil, for drilling off the New Jersey shore and in the federally protected areas of Alaska, and has taken $69,000 from the oil industry.

Global Warming – It’s a Real Threat

Scott Garrett refuses to accept the overwhelming body of scientific evidence showing that man-made greenhouse gases cause global warming and that it is a real threat to our way of life. He voted to remove language from an appropriations bill acknowledging that greenhouse gases cause global warming and that global warming is a real threat.

Your Choice Not Scott’s

In a district where 70% of residents support reproductive choice, Scott Garrett opposes a woman’s right to choose in all instances, even for victims of rape or incest.

Garrett Shrubs

Career politician Scott Garrett gets a huge property tax break because he says his brother sells $700 worth of shrubs annually. Garrett takes up to $41,000 a year in tax breaks meant for real farmers, and failed to disclose this shrub farm as required by federal law.

In what promises to be a tough race, the amazing outpouring of netroots support for Dennis’ campaign cannot be underestimated. The Daily Kos community raised $20,000 dollars for our campaign in September –  and we here at Shulman for Congress can’t thank you enough. With a horrendous right wing opponent, an inspiring candidate, and your help, together we can elect a strong progressive leader to Congress this November.

From the Miami-Herald blog:

Now things are really heating up! Raul Martinez and state Democrats at a Miami press conference today looked to tie Lincoln Diaz-Balart to Puerto Rican senator Jorge de Castro Font, who was arrested by the FBI.

Dems charge that de Castro Font has “implicated” Diaz-Balart by alleging to “have traveled to Miami with Congressman Luis Fortuño of Puerto Rico to deliver a suitcase full of cash for Diaz-Balart’s re-election campaign.” The money was allegedly from a prominent PR family. […]

De Castro Font in an interview with a PR TV station, said the alleged trip took place in 2005 — long before Diaz-Balart’s challenge from Martinez. De Castro Font has been indicted by a federal grand jury on 31 criminal counts including bribery, wire fraud and money laundering. He’s also peeved that Fortuño has tried to distance himself from him since the scandal broke, and even tried to remove him from the November ballot. Fortuño is running for governor, and de Castro Font seeks reelection.

The Florida Democratic Party has more:

In an interview with WAPA TV in Puerto Rico, De Castro Font stated:

“I am not going to remain quiet.  I am here talking with you. If I was quiet . . . just the other day I said that …to ask him … Luis Fortuño said the other day that he was never with me that he has not seen me in four years. Ask him if he went with me to deliver money to Congressman Lincoln Diaz-Balart of Miami . We sat together in first class.”

In a separate WAPA 680AM radio interview in Puerto Rico, De Castro Font stated:

“I traveled with him [Luis Fortuño] to Miami to give money to a U.S. Congressman. He didn’t tell me anything else. Ask him when you interview him if he went to take money to Congressman Lincoln Diaz-Balart sitting with me in First Class on American Airlines.”

My friends, this is sleaze that I can believe in. Remember, this isn’t the first time that Diaz-Balart has engaged in illegal campaign financing. In July 2001, he paid a hefty $30,000 fine for accepting excessive contributions in past campaigns. Perhaps this will be Diaz-Balart’s last campaign for a while.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

The Hill:

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) has lost a key supporter in her reelection bid, with Planned Parenthood opting to endorse Rep. Tom Allen’s (D) bid to unseat Collins.

Planned Parenthood had endorsed Collins, who is pro-choice, in her previous elections, but decided to back Allen after Collins voted to confirm the nomination of conservative Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito.

“I think the most important thing here to keep in mind is that while Sen. Collins has been very good on policy issues, when it came down to one of the most important votes a U.S. senator can take, she failed,” said Chris Quint, director of public affairs for the Planned Parenthood of Northern New England Action Fund. […]

Planned Parenthood has already begun to mobilize 14,000 activists in the state to support Allen, Quint said.

Nice. I’m glad that at least one more progressive group has decided not to give faux-moderate Susan Collins some more cover this year.

For a state that John McCain is expected to win handily, the Republicans sure look like they are in trouble. Democrats are poised to picked up the AZ-01 Congressional seat and yesterday, the Arizona Republic reports that there is a very good chance that Democrats will take control of the State House of Representatives for the first time in 44 years.

One of the state’s leading Republican strategists warned Monday that the GOP is in “acute jeopardy” of losing control of the state House – and maybe even the Senate – in an election that could be brutal for the party.

“The situation is dire and getting worse by the day,” Lincoln Strategy Group political consultant Nathan Sproul wrote in a four-page memo addressed to every GOP legislative candidate.

As subtle as a fire alarm, the memo comes less than a month before the Nov. 4 election and cautions incumbents and newbies alike that “the Republican Party is standing on the cliff of minority status.”

“The doomsday scenario for Republicans is no longer a distant possibility,” Sproul added.

He concluded his memo by saying that the danger of losing the majority status was “real and imminent.”

“The Democrats are well-funded, organized and hungry,” Sproul wrote. “It is every man and woman for himself or herself. Good luck. You’re going to need it.”

Democrats currently hold 27 seats to the Republicans’ 33 seats, meaning a four seat swing will win it for us. There is no need to ephazise the importance of legislative seats here as we followed special elections for the past 2 years. We also know that, as with the case of Barack Obaam, legislatures are incubators for future members of Congress, governors, and possibly presidents. If you are in AZ, do what you can to make it happen.

Rasmussen (10/7, likely voters, 9/16 in parens)

Jim Martin (D): 44 (43)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 50 (50)

Allen Buckley (L): 2

(MoE: ±4.5%)

As we’ve seen in recent polls from SUSA, Reserach 2000, and the Mellman Group, this race is stunningly close. Some might call this “striking distance”. However, Martin will still need some help to capitalize on this opportunity.

Daily Kos just gave Martin the “Orange to Blue” treatment today. Let’s hope the that the DSCC will hop on the Jim Martin Express soon, too.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 54-45 according to the same poll. That’s down slightly from 54-43 last month.

The DSCC is widening their playing field, starting with Kentucky:

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Charles Schumer (N.Y.) indicated Wednesday that Democrats are poised to pick up seven seats or more in November.

Schumer also announced that the DSCC has started airing an ad going after Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). […]

Schumer said that both McConnell’s race in Kentucky and GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss’ contest in Georgia have become newly competitive in just the past two weeks, with Democratic candidates pulling even in both public and private DSCC polls.

The DSCC ad against McConnell attacks him on the economy, but Schumer said the committee was largely steering clear of ads critical of endangered Republicans who voted for the recent $700 billion Wall Street rescue plan. McConnell is facing millionaire health care executive Bruce Lunsford (D).

If you ever needed an indication that Kentucky was a real race (aside from those three recent polls showing a dead heat), now you have it: the DSCC is lending Lunsford a real assist. We’ll post a copy of the ad when it becomes available online.

And what about Georgia, another race that has been quickly emerging in recent weeks?

Schumer would not say whether the DSCC would begin airing ads in Georgia for Chambliss’ opponent, former state Rep. Jim Martin (D), but said the committee has already committed funds to field operations there.

Advice to Chuck: Break the bank. Take out a loan. Pawn your watch. Rob Evan Bayh at gunpoint. Do whatever it takes, but please fund this race.

SSP currently rates the Kentucky and Georgia Senate races as Lean Republican.

UPDATE: Here’s the ad:

Minnesota Public Radio recently commissioned two polls of the Minnesota Senate race, coinciding just before and after the VP debate — and the results were wildly different. Let’s take a look.

MPR/Humphrey Institute (9/29-10/1, likely voters, 8/7-17 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 31 (41)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 40 (40)

Dean Barkley (I): 14 (8)

(MoE: ±5.3%)

And here’s what they found in their next poll (10/3-5):

Al Franken (D): 41

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 37

Dean Barkley (I): 14

(MoE: ±4.8%)

MPR spins the dramatically different results as being influenced by “the extraordinary financial crisis and the resulting congressional response along with the polarizing reaction to the Vice Presidential debate on Oct. 2”.

Maybe. Or maybe there’s a flaw with their methodology. If anything, we’ve seem some dramatically varying polls out of Minnesota in recent days, so it’s hard to trust anything other than the Pollster.com composite. And guess what? It’s tightening.

SurveyUSA (10/6-7, likely voters, 8/10-12):

Tom Perriello (D): 42 (30)

Virgil Goode (R-inc): 55 (64)

Undecided: 3 (5)

(MoE: ±3.8%

That’s some nice movement for Perriello, who has been up on the airwaves in recent days with a set of NASCAR-themed ads (see here, here and here). It’s still very much an uphill fight for Perriello in this R+5.6 district, but it’s clear that he’s made a lot of progress over the past couple of months.

Research 2000 (10/3-5, likely voters, 8/18-20 in parens):

Jill Derby (D): 41 (42)

Dean Heller (R-inc): 48 (47)

(MoE: ±5.0%)

Some pretty marginal movement here, but Heller remains under 50% and Derby’s within striking distance. The Reno Gazette-Journal also brings us this tease:

On an interesting side note, Heller’s numbers are much better in CD2 than John McCain’s. An indication, perhaps, that the Heller campaign is taking its ground game more seriously than the top of the ticket.

The article doesn’t give us the McCain-Obama head-to-heads, but if McCain is underperforming Heller in this close poll, he’s starting way behind statewide. After all, Bush won this district by 16 points in 2004 (and by 20 points in 2000).

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.