Month: November 2008

NC-Sen: Shuler Considering Race Against Burr

After Kay Hagan utterly spanked Liddy Dole earlier this month, and North Carolina turned blue at the Presidential level for the first time since 1976, it’s no surprise that Democrats are painting a fat target on the back of North Carolina’s remaining GOP Senator — Richard Burr. One possible candidate who’s received a lot of buzz is state Attorney General Roy Cooper, but another potential candidate is 11th District Rep. Heath Shuler, who will be starting his second term in the House next year. Shuler is very much keeping the door open to a statewide bid:

U.S. Rep. Heath Shuler is not yet sworn into his second term, but some Democrats hope he sets his sights two years from now on a run for the Senate.

That election would pit Democratic nominee Shuler, a star quarterback at Swain County High School and the University of Tennessee, against U.S. Sen. Richard Burr, who played defensive back at Wake Forest.

Shuler said he has not ruled out a run for Senate, but wants to focus now on Congress.

“First and foremost, I am going back to Washington and work on the economy,” Shuler said. “At this point in time we need to focus on the economy.”

As a popular figure in his western, Appalachian district, Shuler would offer a lot of strengths as a candidate. As for holding his open House seat, our friends at Public Policy Polling are optimistic:

The immediate concern is whether a Shuler run would cost the Democrats a Congressional seat that they reclaimed for the first time in 16 years just one election ago, but I think there is a strong bench in that district.

John Snow represents a very Republican eight county state Senate district contained completely within the 11th District and won every single one of the counties in his reelection bid this year even as Barack Obama won just one of them.

Joe Sam Queen is the Senator for a similarly Republican district in the Mountains. He won four out of six counties this year in his reelection bid: the two counties he lost are in the 10th District while the ones he won are all within the 11th.

If Shuler ran the Democrats’ recruitment should start with those guys since it’s imperative the Democrats nominate someone who’s shown an ability to win outside Buncombe County.

What’d be your agenda if you were elected?

If you were elected, what would your agenda be?

ChadInFL has already laid out his here:

Introducing Senator ChadInFL (D-FL)

On today’s agenda:

1. Passage of Universal Single-Payer Healthcare

2. Resolution to Urge President Obama to begin implementation of a speedy withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from Iraq

3. Passage of the Global Warming Reduction Act of 2009

4. Passage of a Bill Officially Withdrawing the United States from the NAFTA and CAFTA Agreements

5. Passage of the Employee Free Choice Act

6. Passage of an Expansion of Stem-Cell Research using Government Funds

7. Passage of an expansion of Hate Crimes Legislation to include Gays, Bisexuals, and Transgender Persons

8. Passage of a Bill Allowing United States Military Persons to Serve Openly Gay if They So Choose

9. Passage of Free, Universal College Education for all

Meanwhile, the heads of millions of right-wingers simultaneously explode.

What would yours be?

Mine is below the fold.

My agenda (in no particular order)

1a. a resolution to urge the president toward a speedy but reasonable withdrawal of u.s. combat forces in iraq

1b. a resolution to forbid the u.s. from committing combat forces to any military combat until afghanistan is considered to be in stable condition

1c. a bill to strengthen the power of congress in the war powers act

2. a bill ensuring network neutrality

3. a bill to legalize creative “derivative work” based on others’ creative work (thereby expanding the law from just allowing parody) (just a back-burner idea in my head; i’d really have to research the copyright law scene to figure this one out)

4a. a bill to end new drilling for oil on u.s. soil by some reasonable year (i wanna say NOW, but that’s nowhere near reasonable unfortunately…so maybe 2010 or 2012?)

4b. a resolution to differentiate between “clean coal” as in free of pollutants but still producing carbon dioxide and “clean coal” as in coal burned with carbon-capture to prevent carbon dioxide release to the atmosphere

4c. a bill to end tax credits for carbon-emitting energy technologies and to give tax credits for carbon-capturing or carbonless energy technologies

4d. a bill to give tax credits for carbon-capture technologies (even if they’re not part of an energy-producing process-chain)

5a. a bill to bail out the auto industry with the condition that it must focus on the development of hybrid-fuel and non-carbon-emitting-fuel vehicles

5b. a bill to mandate that treasury money given to banks be used for the credit market and not to buy other banks

5c. possibly (since i’m not yet clear on the details of this): a bill to increase oversight (even if not necessarily regulation) of the hedge fund, credit default swap, and derivatives markets

6. a bill to repeal the george w. bush tax cuts

7. a bill to fund a federal study on infrastructure repair needs and then to help fund states to make these repairs  (what, the i-80 bridge collapse wasn’t enough of a wake-up already???)

8. a bill to repeal no child left behind and instead set up a more comprehensive and less testing-oriented federal education mandate program, including funding for early childhood education, substance abuse prevention, and college scholarships

9. a bill to institute pay-as-you-go (is this even possible at this point?  i mean, even my stuff is probably crazy expensive)

10. (personal) an annual or even twice-a-year listening tour of my state or district to know what concerns my constituents

11. (personal) investigate flood control and wetland preservation options in the New Orleans area (including consulting Jim Harlan about his flood control plan)

12. reinstate the provisions that make Rep. Henry Brown Jr.’s actions illegal (in light of the news about the California wildfires, I suddenly have renewed reason to dislike him)

My concern is for #10 and #4a conflicting, as well as worry of the development of a gasoline black market if it becomes banned.  I’d have to keep it flowing at a restricted rate to combat that, though we might be able to make up the rest with carbon capture technologies…

Okay, I think that’s good enough for starters.  What are your ideas?

TX-01: Prospecting For 2010

Crossposted from Burnt Orange Report and the Screwie Louie Blog, a place for discussing Louie Gohmert and Texas’ 1st Congressional District politics.

I have been spending some time over the past few days thinking about candidate recruitment for 2010. After a difficult couple of decades, the Democratic Party doesn’t have a deep bench in the 1st District. Still, there are some candidates whom I believe could make this district very competitive. Although no one, to my knowledge, has expressed in running yet, I have put together a list of names of candidates who could possibly be worth recruiting. These are some of my thoughts:

THE CELEBRITIES

There are at least three candidates whom I would describe as top tier recruits, capable of putting up a serious fight against Louie Gohmert in 2010.

Richard Anderson: Far and away, Richard Anderson is my dream candidate. As Harrison County Judge, Richard Anderson holds the position once held by Max Sandlin, the last Democrat to represent the 1st District.

As a former Texas State Senator, Judge Anderson also has residual name recognition that extends beyond the borders of his home county into a good portion of the 1st District. His legislative experience would serve him well if he were to run and win.

Judge Anderson is an electrifying speaker, well connected in the legal community, where he could potentially raise a lot of money. He is photogenic, charismatic, and a fantastic stump speaker.

Unfortunately, though I think he might be tempted, he’ll likely choose not to run (at least not this year). Anderson is up for reelection in 2010, and with redistricting right around the corner, he will probably run for a second term in the Courthouse and wait the chance that the district will be more favorable in 2012.

Martha Whitehead: When Kay Bailey Hutchison was first elected Senator in 2003, Gov. Ann Richards selected Whitehead–who was Mayor of Longview at the time–to fill Hutchison’s position as State Treasurer.

Whitehead ran for statewide reelection in 1994. I still remember this wonderful ad she had on television in which she argued that the Treasurer’s office was a redundant bureacracy and promised to make it “disappear” if she were reelected. At the end of the ad, on cue, Whitehead literally disappeared.

Whitehead was reelected that year (the year George W. Bush was first elected Governor). She fulfilled her campaign pledge and helped make the Treasurer’s office disappear. And then she disappeared back to Longview where she retired from elective office and returned to her career as a Hospital executive.

It’s been a long time since that election, and Whitehead has spent the time comfortably outside the public eye. Why would she want to get back in politics now? With Ann Richards having passed away in 2006, with Hillary Clinton’s Presidential campaign making history in 2008, and with Kay Bailey Hutchison likely making a run for the Governor’s mansion in 2010, perhaps Whitehead might want to reappear to make a bit of history herself.

Hank Gilbert: Hank Gilbert is your High School Shop teacher. Literally. He is a former teacher and native East Texas rancher, and boy does he look and talk the part.

Hank was the Democratic nominee for Texas Agriculture Commissioner in 2006, and he won more votes than any other statewide Democrat. He has strong appeal among rural voters, and among traditional Republican voters (of whom there are many in the 1st District).

Hank has also, shrewdly, spent a great deal of time leading the fight against the Trans Texas Corridor–an endeavor which has endeared him greatly to Democrats and Republicans alike.

I have a hunch, though, that Hank is still eying that Agriculture Commissioner race in 2010. Either way, this guy is going to be among the top Texas Democrats to watch in the next election cycle.

THE JUDGES

Five other names that must appear on this list are those of the other County Judges elected in counties completely contained in the 1st District.

These are all Democrats who have been elected in counties which, for the last decade, could only be described as Republican strongholds. For this reason alone, they deserve to be considered potential recruits for a campaign against Louie Gohmert.

None of these officials, though, would bring with them the automatic fundraising power or name recognition of the three “celebrities” on my list. In fact, their counties are all among the least populous in the 1st District. Panola and Upshur are the largest, and they have only a small fraction of the voters in Smith County, Gohmert’ s home county.

Still, with the support of their base, a lot of hard work, and a little bit of luck, any of these County Judges could break out and be a serious contender against Gohmert in 2010.

THE DARK HORSES

Christina Anderson — If anything, Christina Anderson is even more impressive than her husband, Judge Richard Anderson (see above). Anderson would bring to the campaign her passion for education (she is an Educational Consultant) and a deep understanding of the important issues facing our nation’s schools.

If she were to run, she might also be able to draw on the same fundraising universe as Judge Anderson. In addition, I would expect her to draw considerable attention from the national fundraising network, EMILY’s List.

With Judge Anderson up for reelection in 2010, would Christina want to spend most of her time leading up to the election outside Harrison County? I suppose that depends on how vulnerable they think he will be to his Republican challenger.

T.J. Burrow — Burrow is the Business Manager for the local IBEW Local in the Longview/Marshall area. I met him at a Democratic Party event one time and had an opportunity to pick his brain about labor politics. I found him to be bright, charismatic, and engaging.

The number one legislative goal of the American labor movement right now is the Employee Free Choice Act which is designed to make it easier for workers to organize and bargain collectively. It is conceivable, though, that Congress won’t have time to move this legislation this year, given the economic crisis, health care, energy, and other issues that must be dealt with sooner rather than later.

2010, then, might be the election year in which EFCA breaks out as a big issue. What better candidate to make the case for greater labor protections than an genuine labor leader? If T.J. were to run, he would certainly get a financial and manpower committment at least from his own union, and perhaps from the broader labor community.

Karen Roberts — A prominent Tyler attorney, and former Chair of the Smith County Democratic Party, Roberts has the polish, poise, and political sophistication one would expect from a top tier Congressional candidate.

I have spoken to people familiar with her tenure as Smith County Democratic Party Chair, and the consensus is that she did manage to leave the party financially flush. Years of practicing law in Tyler have left her with a rolodex that she will be able to automatically tap for campaign cash.

As is the case with Martha Whitehead and Christina Anderson, there is the potential that Karen Roberts could tap into a pent-up demand for strong, well-qualified female candidates. Lest we forget, Democratic Women’s Clubs are the heart of the Democratic Party organization in East Texas, and not a lot of work gets done without Democratic Women carrying a big part of the weight.

MORE NAMES TO COME?

This is hardly an authoritative or comprehensive list. It is possible that there is another candidate out there who will surprise everyone and make a strong run in 2010. On the other hand, many of the individuals on this list would probably laugh off the thought of running for Congress. Others might secretly be holding out for a more favorable opportunity post-redistricting.

Those of us who want a real, viable option on the ballot in 2010 have an obligation today to make the case in any way possible that our district needs one of these individuals, or some other individual not on this list, to mount a serious challenge to Louie Gohmert sooner rather than later.

I look forward to hearing any comments that others might have on this subject.

What did you get wrong? What did you get right? (updated)

We’ve had ten days to decompress from the election. It’s time for a little self-promotion and self-criticism.

What did you predict accurately during the past campaign, and what did you get completely wrong?

The ground rules for this thread are as follows:

1. This is about your own forecasting skills. Do not post a comment solely to mock someone else’s idiocy.

2. You are not allowed to boast about something you got right without owning up to at least one thing you got wrong.

3. For maximum bragging rights, include a link to a comment or diary containing your accurate prediction. Links are not required, though.

I’ll get the ball rolling. Here are some of the more significant things I got wrong during the presidential campaign that just ended.

I thought that since John Edwards had been in the spotlight for years, the Republicans would probably not be able to spring an “October surprise” on us if he were the Democratic nominee. Oops.

In 2006 I thought Hillary’s strong poll numbers among Democrats were

inflated by the fact that she has a lot of name recognition. I think once the campaign begins, her numbers will sink like Lieberman’s did in 2003.

Then when her poll numbers held up in most states throughout 2007, I thought Hillary’s coalition would collapse if she lost a few early primaries. Um, not quite.

I thought Barack Obama would fail to be viable in a lot of Iowa precincts dominated by voters over age 50.

I thought Obama had zero chance of beating John McCain in Florida.

Here are a few things I got right:

I consistently predicted that Hillary would finish no better than third in the Iowa caucuses. For that I was sometimes ridiculed in MyDD comment threads during the summer and fall of 2007.

I knew right away that choosing Sarah Palin was McCain’s gift to Democrats on his own birthday, because it undercut his best argument against Obama: lack of experience.

I immediately sensed that letting the Obama campaign take over the GOTV effort in Iowa might lead to a convincing victory for Obama here without maximizing the gains for our down-ticket candidates. In fact, Iowa Democrats did lose a number of statehouse races we should have won last week.

By the way, if you are from Iowa or have Iowa connections, please consider helping the progressive community blog Bleeding Heartland analyze what went wrong and what went right for Democrats in some of the state House and Senate races.

UPDATE: I wasn’t thinking just in terms of election predictions. I meant more broadly, what were you right and wrong about during the course of the whole campaign? Such as, “I thought Obama was done after Nevada” or “I thought the long primary battle was going to destroy Obama’s chances” or “I thought once Reverend Wright emerged Hillary would win the nomination.”

CT-Gov: Malloy waiting for Blumenthal

Just a quick diary: I overheard on the news earlier tonight that Stamford, CT mayor Dan Malloy wants to run for governor, but is waiting for Attorney General Richard Blumenthal to announce a decision.

Disclaimer: I am not endorsing Malloy, Blumenthal, or anyone else.  I’m just writing this because I heard about it.

Also, don’t forget the Election 2008 Superlatives thread!

Why we won

As we all know one of the reasons Obama won was that he kept the margins close in “red” districts while running up the score in “blue” districts.

Now we are seeing not only how true that is but what it means for 2010.

Courtsey of the Scorecard in Politico:

Connecticut numbers of Presidential vote by CD for McCain:

CT-01: John Larson (D) — 33%

CT-02: Joe Courtney (D) — 39%

CT-03: Rosa DeLauro (D) — 36%

CT-04: Jim Himes (D) — 40%

CT-05: Chris Murphy (D) — 42%

What this means is McCain ran 5-8 points behind Bush in CT 2,4,5 which seats that Democrats picked up in 06 and 08.

Himes won with by only 3% (51%-48%) which means Shays ran well ahead of McCain. This would seem to indicate that voters stuck with Shays who is a relative moderate and a long term incumbent.

The possibility of turning this seat safe while dependant on many factors over the next few years is very bright

And now the even better news….

One of the keys to Obama’s victory and Democrats reclaming the majority in congress was the ability to win in red states.

Virginia, a state which has been trending Blue since 2005 is a case in point and nothing shows this more than the vote by CD

VA-01: Rob Wittman (R) – 51% (60%)

VA-02: Glenn Nye (D) – 49% (58%)

VA-03: Bobby Scott (D) – 24% (33%)

VA-04: Randy Forbes (R) – 49% (57%)

VA-05: Tom Perriello? (D) – 51% (56%)

VA-06: Bob Goodlatte (R) – 57% (63%)

VA-07: Eric Cantor (R) – 53% (61%)

VA-08: Jim Moran (D) – 30% (35%)

VA-09: Rick Boucher (D) – 59% (59%)

VA-10: Frank Wolf (R) – 46% (55%)

VA-11: Gerry Connolly (D) – 42% (50%)

These numbers can be described(and have been) several factors

1.) Change in Demograhpic via migration

2.) Superior ground game

3.) Democrats at all levels were flush with money

4.) Huge increase in African American turnout

The results speak for themselves. McCain ran 8 points behind Bush in VA 11 which used to be Tom Davis’s district.

In VA 10 McCain ran 9 points behind Bush in a seat the Democrats should be targeting come 2010.

In VA 1,4,6 McCain also ran way behind Bush in 04 but still managed to win a majority.

So what does it mean?

I beleive it puts the exclamation point on the idea that Virigina is no longer a red state which is now in our camp.

I think we have a chance to pick up another seat or two(probably Wolfs) and hopefully get the House of Delegates back.

I don’t subscrube to the beleif that we will run the table or be able to unseat Cantor, Forbes or Whittman.

Those are still very conservative districts and it was a bad year for Republicans all around.

McCain won the same margin as Bush in VA 9 which is held by Democrat Rick Boucher.  The closer margins were probably due to a higher turnout by African Americans but Whitman, Forbes and Cantor won with more then 57% of the vote which indicates that although we have made great progress there are limits to what we can do

AK-Sen: Begich Lead Up to 1,061

More vote counts have been released in the Alaska Senate race, and they show Mark Begich building slightly on his 814-point lead from yesterday.

Mark Begich (D): 137,527 (47%)

Ted Stevens (R): 136,466 (47%)

Bob Bird (AIP): 11,933 (4%)

Fredrick Haase (L): 2,215 (0%)

Ted Gianoutsos (NA): 1,218 (0%)

It’s unclear if there’s going to be a second wave of results for the day (according to the release schedule, this should be all for today), but if this is everything for today, then Begich is in really good shape. Today was the day for the counting from the Mat-Su Valley (home turf for Sarah Palin and the state’s most conservative core).

Today the state expects to count all absentee and questioned ballots left from the Matanuska-Susitna Borough and northern and western Alaska. Elections officials will also count most, if not all, Fairbanks ballots today. Tuesday is the ballot count for Anchorage and Southeast, where the majority of outstanding votes lie.

If Begich emerged from Mat-Su counting day with more rather than fewer votes, with areas like more Begich-friendly areas still on the table, then he’s starting to look like he’s in the clear. The question is starting to be whether he can get above the 0.5% threshold to avoid a state-paid recount.

UPDATE: It looks like a few more votes trickled in; at 11 pm Eastern, the lead is now 1,022 votes.

CA-04: Don’t Look Now…

…but Charlie Brown has cut Tom McClintock’s lead from 1,248 to 533 votes:

Tom McClintock (R): 168,868

Charlie Brown (D): 168,335

CQ has more on this crapshoot:

McClintock’s campaign on Thursday estimated that 35,000 absentee and provisional ballots remained to be counted, and neither campaign expects the count to be completed this week. McClintock and Brown are both scheduled to attend freshman orientation next week in Washington, D.C.

The rules for vote reporting in California make it virtually impossible to get an exact reading on the number of votes still outstanding. All or portions of nine counties make up the 4th District in the state’s northeastern corner, and counties are not required to provide updates to California’s secretary of state regarding their progress in the canvass. Those counties that do report such numbers, but are divided between congressional districts, generally do not break down the number of still-uncounted ballots by district.

The McClintock campaign says that this latest batch of votes came from Nevada County, which went big for Brown on election day. They’re confidently projecting a victory for the carpetbagging blockhead, but I guess we’ll see. There are a lot of votes left on the table, and not much we know about where they’re coming from.